"Roughing the Passer - A PK Frazier Novel"

My new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" is the follow-up to "Illegal Procedure" and "Roughing the Passer" and is now available in print and in e-formats at amazon.com, smashwords.com and iBooks. Follow me on twitter @kevinkrest.

Saturday, November 9, 2013

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 11 PICKS

The really big games were played Thursday night, but at this time of the season, upsets can happen.  Alabama has lost a game at home the last two years, one of them to LSU two years ago. Florida State has stubbed its toe against seemingly overmatched opponents in the past. Tennessee is capable of pulling a stunner. Virginia Tech can still win the ACC Coastal with a win at Miami. The fireworks are far from over this week.

Overall: 141 - 40

(13) LSU (7-2) 30 @ (1) Alabama (8-0) 27: LSU's signature win is against Auburn, but it doesn't appear, on paper anyway, that the Tigers have enough to stay with Alabama. But this is the SEC West, and eventually the grind of the season is just too much to sustain. Both teams are coming off byes, and in the case of LSU, their game against Furman two weeks ago was a virtual off week to prepare for the Tide. I don't know why, but I'm picking LSU.

(2) Florida State (8-0) 34 @ Wake Forest (4-5) 16: The 'Noles have lost to Wake Forest in the past, but I don't think it will happen this week. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a letdown from FSU. This one might be closer than everyone thinks.

(8) Missouri (8-1) 37 @ Kentucky (2-6) 17:  The Wildcats will be happy know that basketball season starts next week.

(9) Auburn (8-1) 20 @ Tennessee (4-5) 21: This could be a trap week for Auburn with big rivalry games upcoming against Georgia and Alabama to end the season.  The Vols haven't performed well the last two weeks since knocking off South Carolina. There's no way anyone will be picking Tennessee to pull the upset. Except me.

Virginia Tech (6-3) 19 @ (11) Miami (7-1) 17:  Hokies QB Logan Thomas has been, in Colin Cowherd's words, a "turnover machine". No disagreement here. Two weeks ago this looked like a relevant game in the BCS. It's not, but the winner will have a shot at the Coastal Division crown in the ACC. For Virginia Tech, a loss all but eliminates them from contention. For Miami, a win puts them in clear control. Here's another one from the heart.

Kansas (2-6) 13 @ (14) Oklahoma State (7-1) 40: Kansas is barely even competitive in the Big 12. Oklahoma State is competing for the title. Enough said.

Mississippi State (4-5) 27 @ (15) Texas A&M (7-2) 38: The Bulldogs are a decent team but not nearly good enough to take down the Aggies in College Station.

(16) Fresno State (8-0) 37 @ Wyoming (4-4) 30: Wyoming gave Nebraska a scare in week 1, but have given up a lot of points since. Fresno State is still waiting for a game against a competitive team. The Cowboys can give them some trouble, but probably won't be able to stay with the Bulldogs. I'll have to wait until next week before Fresno State has to play some real football to win a game.

(19) UCLA (6-2) 31 @ Arizona (6-2) 27: UCLA's losses are to Stanford and Oregon. Arizona's are against Washington and USC. I'll take the Bruins in a close one on the road.

Houston (7-1)  30 @ (21) UCF (6-1) 32: UCF has had a great season so far, coming within a few points of defeating South Carolina and being undefeated. Houston's two points from being undefeated themselves. The Cougars will provide a stern test at UCF. I'll flip a coin and take the home team in this one.

(22) Arizona State  38 (6-2) @ Utah (4-4) 24: The Sun Devils go into a tough environment at Salt Lake City, where the Utes have already beaten Stanford. But Arizona State is on fire, with way too much offense for Utah to contain.

(23) Notre Dame (7-2) 27 @ Pittsburgh (4-4) 17: With the exception of an offensive explosion against Duke, Pittsburgh has had a difficult time scoring points. Notre Dame's defense has been pretty stout for much of the season. As much as I'd like the Panthers to pull the upset, I don't see it happening.

BYU (6-2) 27 @ (24) Wisconsin (6-2) 31: BYU is really playing some good football, and may have a big surprise for the Badgers. This could be a great game. I have to stay with Wisconsin's size to wear down the Cougars.

Kansas State (4-4) 24 @ (25) Texas Tech (7-2) 28: The Red Raiders had their season derailed the last couple of weeks, but they're still good enough to defeat the Wildcats in Lubbock.

Syracuse (4-4) 20 @ Maryland (5-3) 28: Maryland had a pretty nice season going until they stopped being able to play defense. Syracuse has been like Jekyll and Hyde, up one week, down the next. I'll stay with the pattern.

Texas (6-2) 34 @ West Virginia (4-5) 23: Since beating Oklahoma State, West Virginia has hit the skids. The Longhorns are going in the opposite direction. winners of five straight.  They'll make it six today.

Nebraska (6-2) 24 @ Michigan (6-2) 27: This may be one of the toughest games of the week to pick. Nebraska hasn't played particularly well the last two weeks, and Michigan got stuffed by their rivals from Michigan State last week. I haven't thought either team has what it takes to win their division, so I'll just stick with the home team  here.

Colorado (3-5) 20 @ Washington (5-3) 31: Washington isn't as good as they looked earlier in the season, but they're good enough to beat the Buffaloes today.


Arkansas (3-6) 20 @ Ole Miss (5-3) 28: The Rebels are a good team that happens to play in a very tough division. The Razorbacks are a rebuilding team that is at least a year away from competing with the other stellar programs in the SEC West.