Saturday, October 21, 2017
COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK EIGHT PREDICTIONS
Last Week: 21 - 8 72.4%
Overall: 159 - 37 81.1%
Despite losses by seven of the top twenty-five teams last week, I was still able to hold my own in a weekend with more close games than I can remember. It was particularly interesting since there were no match-ups pitting ranked teams against each other. That's not the case this week, as Michigan travels to Penn State and Notre Dame hosts USC. Both of those games have significant implications for the playoffs.
Saturday
11:00 am CDT:
Maryland (3 - 3) 17 @ (5) Wisconsin (6 - 0) 30: Before last week's loss to Northwestern, Maryland seemed to be headed in the right direction. They'll need to do something a few underdogs did a week ago and stun a ranked team, although only one of them, Boise State did it on the road. Wisconsin's offense wasn't impressive last week against a decent Purdue defense, but they should have more success with Maryland.
(10) Oklahoma State (5 - 1) 31 @ Texas (3 - 3) 27: I like the toughness that Texas has shown since their opening game beat down by Maryland. Tom Herman's team is probably a season away from contending. Oklahoma State's only blemish is against a very good TCU team that has a much better defense than Texas. I believe the Cowboys have too much offensive firepower for the 'Horns.
Louisville (4 - 3) 20 @ Florida State (2 - 3) 23: A lot has been mentioned about Louisville's Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson's coming out party in an overwhelming defeat of Florida State last year. Most people would have been challenged to imagine that these two teams have a combined six losses. For the Seminoles to win this one at home, they'll need to get more production from freshman quarterback James Blackman to outscore the Cardinals.
Boston College (3 - 4) 20 @ Virginia (5 - 1) 24: Boston College is clearly improving while Virginia has been the most surprising ACC team so far this season. BC stunned Louisville last week and Virginia buried Boise State on the road a month ago. I'll take the Cavaliers at home in a close one.
Iowa State (4 - 2) 37 @ Texas Tech (4 - 2) 34: Iowa State's win over Oklahoma showed that the Cyclones are for real, but to win at Texas Tech, they'll need to score a lot of points and make key stops on defense. They've been doing that all season with the exception of their loss to Texas, so I like them to pull another road upset.
Iowa (4 - 2) 27 @ Northwestern (3 - 3) 20: Iowa's only losses were by one possession to Penn State and Michigan State, both nationally ranked teams. Northwestern plays tough, but Iowa is just a little better on both side of the ball.
2:30 pm CDT
Tennessee (3 - 3) 13 @ (1) Alabama (7 - 0) 38: Tennessee coach Butch Jones is probably on his way out, but an upset at Alabama could help to keep his hopes of staying in Knoxville on life support. The Tide are as complete a football team as we've seen in a long time, so I don't see much chance of the Vols even making it close.
Syracuse (4 - 3) 24 @ (8) Miami (5 - 0) 27: Syracuse pulled the upset of the week against Clemson last Friday night, the first of a rash of surprises last weekend. Miami has been pulling off close victories to remain unbeaten and will need to be on its game to keep the Orange from upending its second consecutive top ten team. I think Miami is going to be challenged but finds a way to win again.
North Carolina (1 - 6) 17 @ (14) Virginia Tech (5 - 1) 30: It seems like every season, Virginia Tech blows a game they're expected to handily win. North Carolina is given almost no chance to win this game, so it could be a a little bit of a trap for the Hokies. Coming off a bye week, however, I think they'll take care of business, especially if they get the running game going.
Indiana (3 - 3) 20 @ (18) Michigan State (5 - 1) 23: Indiana took Michigan to overtime last week, but that game was at home. The most surprising team in the Big Ten will need to pay attention to the Hoosiers if they hope to challenge Ohio State and Penn State for their division crown. Michigan State is still improving and should have enough on offense to prevail.
(20) UCF (5 - 0) 34 @ Navy (5 - 1) 27: UCF, despite being ranked in the top twenty, is flying under the radar for a number of reasons. They had a number of games postponed or cancelled, including one against Georgia Tech that could have given them a little more attention early in the season. That game also would have given the Golden Knights more experience against the option offense that tends to make it difficult for opposing defenses. UCF is scoring a lot of points and that will be the difference today.
Arizona State (3 - 3) 20@ Utah (4 - 2) 24: After stunning Washington last week, Arizona State has injected itself into the Pac-12 South race. To stay alive, they'll need to do it again, this time on the road in Salt Lake City. I'm tempted to take the Aztecs, but their inconsistency bothers me.
3:00 pm CDT
(9) Oklahoma (5 - 1) 34 @ Kansas State (3 - 3) 20: Oklahoma had to dig deep to beat Texas last week, but at least they looked better defensively than they did in their loss to Iowa State. They'll need to play a good game to beat the Wildcats in Manhattan, but they should get the job done.
Kentucky (5 - 1) 24 @ Mississippi State (4 - 2) 27: This is one of the more difficult games of the week to pick a winner. Kentucky has a win at South Carolina and a one-point loss to Florida in games against quality opponents. Mississippi State whipped LSU, but laid eggs at Georgia and Auburn. I went with Mississippi State Friday morning on "Lou in the Morning" and I'll stick with that pick. However, if Kentucky wins, they could be looking at a special season.
6:00 pm CDT
(16) South Florida (6 - 0) 37 @ Tulane (3 - 3) 23: South Florida is on a collision course with UCF for the AAC East title on Nov. 24. They should be able to keep those hopes alive for another week at Tulane, but the Green Wave has enough to put it all together occasionally and pull a surprise.
6:15pm CDT
(24) LSU (5 - 2) 27 @ Ole Miss (3 - 3) 24: After a bad home loss to Troy, a lot of critics left LSU for dead and there was plenty of speculation on head coach Ed Orgeron's future in Baton Rouge. Now they have to head to Oxford for a rivalry game that could disrupt their season once again. The Tigers will need to pay attention on defense to keep from giving up big plays.
6:30 pm CDT
(19) Michigan (5 - 1) 17 @ (2) Penn State (6 - 0) 27: This game, potentially the biggest nationally and definitely the most impactful in the Big Ten, will come down to Michigan's ability to keep the game close. The Wolverine's don't have nearly as many offensive weapons as Penn State, who they pounded 49 - 10 last season, which was the last regular season loss for the Nittany Lions. Michigan's offense will be an issue that I don't think they'll be able to overcome.
(11) USC (6 - 1) 23 @ (13) Notre Dame (5 - 1) 30: A one-point loss to Georgia and a 38 - 18 win at now ranked Michigan State puts Notre Dame in the hunt for a playoff spot. Head coach Brian Kelly has done a good job in turning around the Irish's fortune's from last season's disaster. A win today would cement their national chances, but the schedule the rest of the way could be a problem. USC has found ways to keep winning, but that will a lot tougher today.
(21) Auburn (5 - 2) 31 @ Arkansas (2 - 4) 20: I'd like to think that the Razorbacks will be able to find a way to win this game, but I haven't seen much the last two weeks that would give me a reason for optimism. About the only thing might be if backup quarterback Cole Kelley can mature quickly. Auburn is coming off a meltdown loss to LSU and head coach Guz Malzahn always has extra motivation against the Hogs.
7:00 pm CDT
Kansas (1 - 5) 6 @ (4) TCU (6 - 0) 51: Kansas is possibly the worst team in the FBS and TCU is perhaps one of the best. This is one of those games that could get very ugly, very early.
(23) West Virginia (4 - 2) 34 @ Baylor (0 -6) 24: West Virginia keeps bouncing in and out of the top twenty-five. They need to follow up the come from behind victory against Texas Tech with a good effort against a dangerous winless team.
9:45 pm CDT
Colorado (4 - 3) 24 @ (15) Washington State (6 - 1) 34: Washington State returns home after getting embarrassed at California. They'll be facing a tough team, but the Buffs don't have the weapons to stay with the Cougars. I don't expect Washington State's quarterback Luke Falk to struggle in consecutive weeks.
Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/
Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show
Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.
Friday, October 13, 2017
COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK SEVEN PREDICTIONS
Last Week: 23 - 4 85.2%
Overall: 138 - 29 82.6%
It was another good week, and it would have been better if I hadn't been foolish enough to think Texas A&M and Arkansas could pull upsets. There are no games involving pairs of ranked teams, but there are plenty of close intra-conference match-ups. I'll need some good fortune to keep my average over 80% for the season. I've grouped the games by kickoff times so readers have more information on when to tune into their favorite teams.
Friday:
6:30 pm CDT:
(2) Clemson (6 - 0) 34 @ Syracuse (3 - 3) 17 : The Carrier Dome in Syracuse can be one of the most difficult places for visiting teams to play. Last season, an eventual 4 - 8 Orange team upset Virginia Tech. Clemson is playing far better than the Hokies did last year, but it can still be a tough place to win. I'll stick with the favorites, even though Syracuse has hung in there in losses to LSU and NC State.
9:30 pm CDT
(8) Washington State (6 - 0) 31 @ California (3 - 3) 20: Washington State appears to have a complete football team, an anomaly under Mike Leach, generally considered an offensive minded head coach. The Cougars' defense is pretty good and quarterback Luke Falk is playing as well as any signal caller in the country. Cal has exceeded expectations, but they'll need to bring their best effort of the season to challenge Washington State.
Saturday:
11:00 am CDT:
(6) TCU (5 - 0) 27 @ Kansas State (3 -2) 13: With Oklahoma and and Oklahoma State already suffering conferences losses, it's important for the Big 12 that TCU keeps winning. Ir's going to be difficult for the conference to get a team into the playoffs given the way Alabama, Clemson, Penn State, Washington and Washington State are playing in the other Power Five leagues. As far as this game goes, Kansas State is not as good as their mediocre record, and TCU is every bit as good as their undefeated status.
(17) Michigan (4 - 1) 23 @ Indiana (3 - 2) 16: Indiana was over-matched in their lopsided losses to Ohio State and Penn State. Until Michigan's loss to Michigan State last week, the Wolverines were considered in the same class as those other Big Ten East teams. The big difference between Michigan and the other two teams mentioned above is that they aren't as explosive, giving Indiana a fighting chance in this game. If Michigan has a hang over from last week, this one could be close.
(20) NC State (5 - 1) 34 @ Pittsburgh (2 - 4) 20: NC State is looking to go victoriously into their bye week before a big games on the road at Notre Dame and at home against Clemson that most likely will be for the ACC Atlantic crown. After a big Thursday night win against Louisville, the Wolfpack needs to guard against a letdown. Fortunately for them, Pittsburgh is in a down year and NC State should be able to take care of business on the road.
(24) Texas Tech (4 - 1) 27 @ West Virginia (3 - 2) 30: This is one of the more interesting games in a week where there are no match-ups between ranked teams. West Virginia's two losses are to top fifteen teams by the identical score of 31 - 24. I don't believe Texas Tech is in the same class as TCU and Virginia Tech, so I'm giving the Mountaineers the edge at home.
Florida State (1 - 3) 27 @ Duke (4 - 2) 10: Florida State is coming off a difficult, last second loss to Miami, giving them three losses to the number one, eleven and twentieth ranked teams in the country. Duke is nowhere near that class, so I believe the talent of the Seminoles, especially on defense, will enable them to win the game as long as they can get over the loss to the Hurricanes.
BYU (1 - 5) 17 @ Mississippi State (3 - 2) 37: This a good opportunity for Mississippi State to bounce back after consecutive road losses to top ten Georgia and Auburn. BYU is not very good, especially offensively and will be challenged to stay in this game into the second half.
South Carolina (4 - 2) 27 @ Tennessee (3 - 2) 23: Until Arkansas served up pick sixes to South Carolina like a father lobbing pitches to his kid, the Gamecocks were struggling in losing two of three games and the win was by a point against Louisiana Tech. Tennessee is on a similar path after getting drilled by Georgia in their last game and barely beating a bad UMass team the week before. This is one of the more difficult picks of the week, especially because Tennessee will start a new quarterback. I have to go with momentum: Good for South Carolina, bad for the Vols.
2:30 pm CDT:
Purdue (3 - 2) 17 @ (7) Wisconsin (5 - 0) 24: Purdue is improved, but it will take quite an effort for the Boilermakers to upend the Badgers. Wisconsin, given a schedule that includes neither Penn State nor Ohio State and a home games against Iowa and Michigan, might have the best chance of any Big Ten team to make the playoffs. They appear to be headed to a 9 - 0 record when they face Iowa on Nov. 11, but this is college football and you only have to look at last week to see teams that lost their focus and get upset.
(10) Auburn (5 - 1) 30 @ LSU (4 - 2) 21: In a battle of the Tigers, one will leave Death Valley Saturday afternoon with a loss. LSU beat Florida by virtue of a missed Gator extra point and they'll need the same type of good fortune to get past Auburn. The visitors will put a lot more pressure on the LSU defense than Florida is capable of generating. I just don't think LSU can keep up.
Georgia Tech (3 - 1) 23 @ (11) Miami (4 - 0) 30: After a big win that broke a seven game losing streak to Florida State, Miami hosts the most difficult team in the ACC to defend. But the Hurricanes are on the rise and playing at home after getting a big monkey off their back. It's difficult to tell how good a team that Georgia Tech has, as their victories are against an FCS team and a couple that are winless in the ACC. Generally, I'd give the Yellow Jackets a chance, but the 41 points they gave up to a mediocre Tennessee team in week one bothers me.
(12) Oklahoma (4 - 1) 24 vs. Texas (3 - 2) 27 (Dallas, TX): This is a compelling game. We have an Oklahoma team that beat Ohio State, then struggled against winless Baylor and lost last week to Iowa State. The Sooners still control their own destiny in the Big 12, but they're currently looking up at Texas in the standings and will probably need run the table to have a shot at the playoffs. I believe Texas' opening game against Maryland was an anomaly and it looks like first year Longhorn coach Tom Herman has the team headed in the right direction.
Baylor (0 - 5) 20 @ (14) Oklahoma State (4 - 1) 37: Unlike their in-state rivals at Oklahoma, the Cowboys have little margin for error and need other teams to lose for them to make it to the conference title game and keep playoff hopes alive. Baylor is actually making some improvements, but I look for Oklahoma State to come out strong.
Virginia (4 - 1) 27 @ North Carolina (1 - 5) 24: It's been quite a turnaround for both of these teams. This is a regional rivalry between elite public colleges. Virginia has already doubled their win total from a season ago and North Carolina has struggled all year. I think the Cavaliers are just a better football team than the Heels and should make things pretty miserable in Chapel Hill. It doesn't get any easier for Carolina, as they travel to Va. Tech and host Miami in the next two weeks.
Northwestern (2 - 3) 27 @ Maryland (3 - 2) 31: Maryland seems to be on rise and need a win this weekend to have a shot another bowl. The bad news is that the Terps play Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State down the stretch. Northwestern has been a little disappointing and a loss would put a real dent into their postseason hopes.
2:45 pm CDT:
(25) Navy (5 - 0) 31 @ Memphis (4 - 1) 34:Not that Navy isn't a pretty good team, but I'm having a hard time understanding the Middies sneaking into the top 25. Their schedule is pretty pedestrian and they've given up a lot of points. Memphis has a quality win over UCLA and can really light up a scoreboard. I'll take the Tigers to come through.
6:00 pm CDT:
East Carolina (1 - 5) 10 @ (22) UCF (4 - 0) 44: There's no question, despite being ranked twenty-second, that UCF might be the most underrated or under-recognized team in the country. They haven't been challenged, but they've only played four games due to hurricane postponements and cancellations. East Carolina has one of the worst FBS defenses, so this could get ugly very early.
Texas A&M (4 - 2) 27 @ Florida (3 - 2) 24:Most teams struggle the week after playing Alabama, and Texas A&M was in a tough one with the Tide last week. But Florida also faced defeat at home and I like the Aggies to put a lot of pressure on Florida's defense. Offensively, the Gators have a hard time moving the ball, so I'm going against the grain and predicting an A&M victory.
6:15 pm CDT:
Arkansas (2 - 3) 17 @ (1) Alabama (6 - 0) 38: Last week's game against South Carolina was a dumpster fire for the Razorbacks. Quarterback Austin Allen looked uncomfortable and made some questionable decisions. I don't see how they can recover enough to challenge the nation's top team. The unit that is generally considered head coach Bret Bielema's forte, the offensive line, is just not performing well. That makes it difficult to run the ball and totally takes the play action pass off the table. Alabama is about as tough as they've been in recent memory.
6:30 pm CDT:
Missouri (1 - 4) 10 @ (4) Georgia (6 - 0) 38: This is one of the biggest mismatches of the week. Georgia is on a roll and Missouri is trying to rebuild. The Bulldogs are on a collision course with Alabama for a potential meeting in the SEC championship game. After pounding Tennessee, Georgia probably only has to take care of Florida in Jacksonville in a couple of weeks to solidify the SEC East title.
(9) Ohio State (5 - 1) 30 @ Nebraska (3 - 3) 13: I would dearly love for Nebraska to upset the Buckeyes, but I just don't believe if the 'Huskers have enough firepower to stay with Ohio State, which is averaging almost 52 points a game in their five wins. The main problem with Nebraska is an offense that hasn't been able to keep up with their opponents. I don't see it happening in this one unless Ohio State self destructs.
Cincinnati (2 - 4) 17 @ (18) South Florida (5 - 0) 41: I could argue that South Florida deserves a higher ranking than their current eighteenth spot, but the playoff committee will have plenty to say about that in another week. The Bulls have rolled through their schedule thus far, but the schedule hasn't been all that challenging. It stays the same this week, but their signature games coming up will pit them against Houston and UCF. That final game will most likely be for the AAC East crown.
7:00 pm CDT:
Utah (4 - 1) 23 @ (13) USC (5 - 1) 30: Utah took a tough, close loss at home to Stanford last week and I think this game will be similar, but with more scoring. Despite a 5 - 1 record, USC can struggle against good defenses. However, the Trojans are clicking on offense and by the end of the season, that loss to Washington State might look very good. My concern is Utah's ability to put points on the board against top, Pac-12 defenses.
(21) Michigan State (4 - 1) 27 @ Minnesota (3 - 2) 13: Can the Spartans consolidate their wins over Iowa and Michigan? No one was giving them much of a chance in the Big Ten East before the season began. They have a loss to Notre Dame, but the Irish are showing themselves to be a very good team. Minnesota will really need to step up offensively against a stout Michigan State defense. I don't see it happening.
8:00 pm CDT:
UCLA (3 - 2) 31 @ Arizona (3 - 2) 27: Arizona hosts the Bruins in what is probably a very big game for coach Rich Rodriguez's future in Tuscon. Both teams are coming off wins over Colorado and UCLA was off last week. This should be a good, competitive game that can go either way, but I'm going to give the edge to the visitors.
9:30 pm CDT:
Boise State (3 - 2) 21 @ (19) San Diego State (6 - 0) 27: San Diego State is trying to run the table and stay in the running for the Group of Five's New Year's Day bowl bid. Boise State is in a bit of a down year and they won't be able to stay with a battle-tested Aztec squad. They'll need some breaks and I'm tempted to go with the Broncos in an upset, but I'll stick with the favorites.
9:45 pm CDT:
(5) Washington (6 - 0) 37 @ Arizona State (2 - 3) 24: If Washington State continues to win, the Apple Bowl on Nov. 25 will most likely be for the Pac-12 North championship. It appears that Todd Graham, head coach at Arizona State will need a couple of miracles to stay on in Tempe. I don't see this as one of them. Washington is balanced and plays well on both sides of the ball. Is it time for Graham to head off into desert sunset? Likely.
10:00 pm CDT:
Oregon (4 - 2) 27 @ (23) Stanford (4 - 2) 31: Willie Taggart has Oregon playing much better than a season ago and the future looks bright, but they lost their starting quarterback and Stanford has rebounded from a couple of early losses. Stanford's defense will be able to control Oregon's explosiveness and Bryce Love should give the Cardinal plenty of yardage on the ground.
Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/
Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show
Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.
Overall: 138 - 29 82.6%
It was another good week, and it would have been better if I hadn't been foolish enough to think Texas A&M and Arkansas could pull upsets. There are no games involving pairs of ranked teams, but there are plenty of close intra-conference match-ups. I'll need some good fortune to keep my average over 80% for the season. I've grouped the games by kickoff times so readers have more information on when to tune into their favorite teams.
Friday:
6:30 pm CDT:
(2) Clemson (6 - 0) 34 @ Syracuse (3 - 3) 17 : The Carrier Dome in Syracuse can be one of the most difficult places for visiting teams to play. Last season, an eventual 4 - 8 Orange team upset Virginia Tech. Clemson is playing far better than the Hokies did last year, but it can still be a tough place to win. I'll stick with the favorites, even though Syracuse has hung in there in losses to LSU and NC State.
9:30 pm CDT
(8) Washington State (6 - 0) 31 @ California (3 - 3) 20: Washington State appears to have a complete football team, an anomaly under Mike Leach, generally considered an offensive minded head coach. The Cougars' defense is pretty good and quarterback Luke Falk is playing as well as any signal caller in the country. Cal has exceeded expectations, but they'll need to bring their best effort of the season to challenge Washington State.
Saturday:
11:00 am CDT:
(6) TCU (5 - 0) 27 @ Kansas State (3 -2) 13: With Oklahoma and and Oklahoma State already suffering conferences losses, it's important for the Big 12 that TCU keeps winning. Ir's going to be difficult for the conference to get a team into the playoffs given the way Alabama, Clemson, Penn State, Washington and Washington State are playing in the other Power Five leagues. As far as this game goes, Kansas State is not as good as their mediocre record, and TCU is every bit as good as their undefeated status.
(17) Michigan (4 - 1) 23 @ Indiana (3 - 2) 16: Indiana was over-matched in their lopsided losses to Ohio State and Penn State. Until Michigan's loss to Michigan State last week, the Wolverines were considered in the same class as those other Big Ten East teams. The big difference between Michigan and the other two teams mentioned above is that they aren't as explosive, giving Indiana a fighting chance in this game. If Michigan has a hang over from last week, this one could be close.
(20) NC State (5 - 1) 34 @ Pittsburgh (2 - 4) 20: NC State is looking to go victoriously into their bye week before a big games on the road at Notre Dame and at home against Clemson that most likely will be for the ACC Atlantic crown. After a big Thursday night win against Louisville, the Wolfpack needs to guard against a letdown. Fortunately for them, Pittsburgh is in a down year and NC State should be able to take care of business on the road.
(24) Texas Tech (4 - 1) 27 @ West Virginia (3 - 2) 30: This is one of the more interesting games in a week where there are no match-ups between ranked teams. West Virginia's two losses are to top fifteen teams by the identical score of 31 - 24. I don't believe Texas Tech is in the same class as TCU and Virginia Tech, so I'm giving the Mountaineers the edge at home.
Florida State (1 - 3) 27 @ Duke (4 - 2) 10: Florida State is coming off a difficult, last second loss to Miami, giving them three losses to the number one, eleven and twentieth ranked teams in the country. Duke is nowhere near that class, so I believe the talent of the Seminoles, especially on defense, will enable them to win the game as long as they can get over the loss to the Hurricanes.
BYU (1 - 5) 17 @ Mississippi State (3 - 2) 37: This a good opportunity for Mississippi State to bounce back after consecutive road losses to top ten Georgia and Auburn. BYU is not very good, especially offensively and will be challenged to stay in this game into the second half.
South Carolina (4 - 2) 27 @ Tennessee (3 - 2) 23: Until Arkansas served up pick sixes to South Carolina like a father lobbing pitches to his kid, the Gamecocks were struggling in losing two of three games and the win was by a point against Louisiana Tech. Tennessee is on a similar path after getting drilled by Georgia in their last game and barely beating a bad UMass team the week before. This is one of the more difficult picks of the week, especially because Tennessee will start a new quarterback. I have to go with momentum: Good for South Carolina, bad for the Vols.
2:30 pm CDT:
Purdue (3 - 2) 17 @ (7) Wisconsin (5 - 0) 24: Purdue is improved, but it will take quite an effort for the Boilermakers to upend the Badgers. Wisconsin, given a schedule that includes neither Penn State nor Ohio State and a home games against Iowa and Michigan, might have the best chance of any Big Ten team to make the playoffs. They appear to be headed to a 9 - 0 record when they face Iowa on Nov. 11, but this is college football and you only have to look at last week to see teams that lost their focus and get upset.
(10) Auburn (5 - 1) 30 @ LSU (4 - 2) 21: In a battle of the Tigers, one will leave Death Valley Saturday afternoon with a loss. LSU beat Florida by virtue of a missed Gator extra point and they'll need the same type of good fortune to get past Auburn. The visitors will put a lot more pressure on the LSU defense than Florida is capable of generating. I just don't think LSU can keep up.
Georgia Tech (3 - 1) 23 @ (11) Miami (4 - 0) 30: After a big win that broke a seven game losing streak to Florida State, Miami hosts the most difficult team in the ACC to defend. But the Hurricanes are on the rise and playing at home after getting a big monkey off their back. It's difficult to tell how good a team that Georgia Tech has, as their victories are against an FCS team and a couple that are winless in the ACC. Generally, I'd give the Yellow Jackets a chance, but the 41 points they gave up to a mediocre Tennessee team in week one bothers me.
(12) Oklahoma (4 - 1) 24 vs. Texas (3 - 2) 27 (Dallas, TX): This is a compelling game. We have an Oklahoma team that beat Ohio State, then struggled against winless Baylor and lost last week to Iowa State. The Sooners still control their own destiny in the Big 12, but they're currently looking up at Texas in the standings and will probably need run the table to have a shot at the playoffs. I believe Texas' opening game against Maryland was an anomaly and it looks like first year Longhorn coach Tom Herman has the team headed in the right direction.
Baylor (0 - 5) 20 @ (14) Oklahoma State (4 - 1) 37: Unlike their in-state rivals at Oklahoma, the Cowboys have little margin for error and need other teams to lose for them to make it to the conference title game and keep playoff hopes alive. Baylor is actually making some improvements, but I look for Oklahoma State to come out strong.
Virginia (4 - 1) 27 @ North Carolina (1 - 5) 24: It's been quite a turnaround for both of these teams. This is a regional rivalry between elite public colleges. Virginia has already doubled their win total from a season ago and North Carolina has struggled all year. I think the Cavaliers are just a better football team than the Heels and should make things pretty miserable in Chapel Hill. It doesn't get any easier for Carolina, as they travel to Va. Tech and host Miami in the next two weeks.
Northwestern (2 - 3) 27 @ Maryland (3 - 2) 31: Maryland seems to be on rise and need a win this weekend to have a shot another bowl. The bad news is that the Terps play Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State down the stretch. Northwestern has been a little disappointing and a loss would put a real dent into their postseason hopes.
2:45 pm CDT:
(25) Navy (5 - 0) 31 @ Memphis (4 - 1) 34:Not that Navy isn't a pretty good team, but I'm having a hard time understanding the Middies sneaking into the top 25. Their schedule is pretty pedestrian and they've given up a lot of points. Memphis has a quality win over UCLA and can really light up a scoreboard. I'll take the Tigers to come through.
6:00 pm CDT:
East Carolina (1 - 5) 10 @ (22) UCF (4 - 0) 44: There's no question, despite being ranked twenty-second, that UCF might be the most underrated or under-recognized team in the country. They haven't been challenged, but they've only played four games due to hurricane postponements and cancellations. East Carolina has one of the worst FBS defenses, so this could get ugly very early.
Texas A&M (4 - 2) 27 @ Florida (3 - 2) 24:Most teams struggle the week after playing Alabama, and Texas A&M was in a tough one with the Tide last week. But Florida also faced defeat at home and I like the Aggies to put a lot of pressure on Florida's defense. Offensively, the Gators have a hard time moving the ball, so I'm going against the grain and predicting an A&M victory.
6:15 pm CDT:
Arkansas (2 - 3) 17 @ (1) Alabama (6 - 0) 38: Last week's game against South Carolina was a dumpster fire for the Razorbacks. Quarterback Austin Allen looked uncomfortable and made some questionable decisions. I don't see how they can recover enough to challenge the nation's top team. The unit that is generally considered head coach Bret Bielema's forte, the offensive line, is just not performing well. That makes it difficult to run the ball and totally takes the play action pass off the table. Alabama is about as tough as they've been in recent memory.
6:30 pm CDT:
Missouri (1 - 4) 10 @ (4) Georgia (6 - 0) 38: This is one of the biggest mismatches of the week. Georgia is on a roll and Missouri is trying to rebuild. The Bulldogs are on a collision course with Alabama for a potential meeting in the SEC championship game. After pounding Tennessee, Georgia probably only has to take care of Florida in Jacksonville in a couple of weeks to solidify the SEC East title.
(9) Ohio State (5 - 1) 30 @ Nebraska (3 - 3) 13: I would dearly love for Nebraska to upset the Buckeyes, but I just don't believe if the 'Huskers have enough firepower to stay with Ohio State, which is averaging almost 52 points a game in their five wins. The main problem with Nebraska is an offense that hasn't been able to keep up with their opponents. I don't see it happening in this one unless Ohio State self destructs.
Cincinnati (2 - 4) 17 @ (18) South Florida (5 - 0) 41: I could argue that South Florida deserves a higher ranking than their current eighteenth spot, but the playoff committee will have plenty to say about that in another week. The Bulls have rolled through their schedule thus far, but the schedule hasn't been all that challenging. It stays the same this week, but their signature games coming up will pit them against Houston and UCF. That final game will most likely be for the AAC East crown.
7:00 pm CDT:
Utah (4 - 1) 23 @ (13) USC (5 - 1) 30: Utah took a tough, close loss at home to Stanford last week and I think this game will be similar, but with more scoring. Despite a 5 - 1 record, USC can struggle against good defenses. However, the Trojans are clicking on offense and by the end of the season, that loss to Washington State might look very good. My concern is Utah's ability to put points on the board against top, Pac-12 defenses.
(21) Michigan State (4 - 1) 27 @ Minnesota (3 - 2) 13: Can the Spartans consolidate their wins over Iowa and Michigan? No one was giving them much of a chance in the Big Ten East before the season began. They have a loss to Notre Dame, but the Irish are showing themselves to be a very good team. Minnesota will really need to step up offensively against a stout Michigan State defense. I don't see it happening.
8:00 pm CDT:
UCLA (3 - 2) 31 @ Arizona (3 - 2) 27: Arizona hosts the Bruins in what is probably a very big game for coach Rich Rodriguez's future in Tuscon. Both teams are coming off wins over Colorado and UCLA was off last week. This should be a good, competitive game that can go either way, but I'm going to give the edge to the visitors.
9:30 pm CDT:
Boise State (3 - 2) 21 @ (19) San Diego State (6 - 0) 27: San Diego State is trying to run the table and stay in the running for the Group of Five's New Year's Day bowl bid. Boise State is in a bit of a down year and they won't be able to stay with a battle-tested Aztec squad. They'll need some breaks and I'm tempted to go with the Broncos in an upset, but I'll stick with the favorites.
9:45 pm CDT:
(5) Washington (6 - 0) 37 @ Arizona State (2 - 3) 24: If Washington State continues to win, the Apple Bowl on Nov. 25 will most likely be for the Pac-12 North championship. It appears that Todd Graham, head coach at Arizona State will need a couple of miracles to stay on in Tempe. I don't see this as one of them. Washington is balanced and plays well on both sides of the ball. Is it time for Graham to head off into desert sunset? Likely.
10:00 pm CDT:
Oregon (4 - 2) 27 @ (23) Stanford (4 - 2) 31: Willie Taggart has Oregon playing much better than a season ago and the future looks bright, but they lost their starting quarterback and Stanford has rebounded from a couple of early losses. Stanford's defense will be able to control Oregon's explosiveness and Bryce Love should give the Cardinal plenty of yardage on the ground.
Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/
Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show
Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.
Saturday, October 7, 2017
COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK SIX PREDICTIONS
I had a good week, getting almost 90% correct in Week 5. I'm going out on a couple of limbs today, going against conventional wisdom to pick some upsets.
Last Week: 24 - 3 88.9%
Overall: 115 - 25 82.4%
Thursday: (from my appearance Thursday on Lou in the Morning)
(17) Louisville (4 - 1) 31 @ (24) NC State (4 - 1) 34: This has turned out to be a very compelling game. With a victory over Florida State a couple of weeks ago, NC State has injected itself into the ACC Atlantic division title race. The Wolfpack has a good defense and enough offensive power to take advantage of Louisville's less than average defense. This will be a difficult environment for the Cardinals and I look for the Wolfpack to come away with the win.
Friday:
Boise State (2 - 2) 24 @ BYU (1 - 4) 20: BYU just can't seem to generate any consistent offense this season, but Boise hasn't exactly been a point producing machine. Virginia exposed some big weaknesses of the Boise defense, but I don't believe BYU has the weapons to take advantage of it. Even though this game is in Utah, I expect Boise State to come out on top in what could be a low scoring affair.
Saturday:
Wake Forest (4 - 1) 14 @ (2) Clemson (5 - 0) 30:Wake Forest may have the most unfortunate scheduling in the ACC, with consecutive games against Florida State, at Clemson, at Georgia Tech, Louisville and at Notre Dame. The Deacs are a good team, but they'll be over matched against a Clemson team that might be the best in the country...again. The Tigers dominated a pretty good Virginia Tech team in Blacksburg a week ago and just have too many athletes for Wake Forest.
Iowa State (2 - 2) 13 @ (3) Oklahoma (4 - 0) 34: After a week off, Oklahoma begins to get to the meat of its conference schedule, but not until next week. The Sooners should have little trouble with the Cyclones, as long as they don't start looking ahead to next week's showdown with an improving Texas team.
(4) Penn State (5 - 0) 37 @ Northwestern (2 - 2) 20: Penn State has the most dynamic player in college football in Saquon Barkley, with 960 yards from scrimmage.Northwestern just doesn't have the horses to compete with the Nittany Lions.
(5) Georgia (5 - 0) 31 @ Vanderbilt (3 - 2) 16: Georgia head coach Kirby Smart has his Bulldogs on a roll and playing at a high level. Georgia is in a great position to enter their rivalry game against Florida in a couple of weeks with a 7 - 0 record. Vanderbilt is decent, but it'll take some breaks for them to have a chance in this one.
Ole Miss (2 - 2) 17 @ (12) Auburn (4 - 1) 37: Ole Miss was exposed against Alabama last week and Auburn just continues to rack up victories. The SEC West is very competitive as usual and with Auburn's only loss coming against Clemson, we can't underestimate the chances of the Tigers to contend for the division title.
(23) West Virginia (3 - 1) 23 @ (8) TCU (4 - 0) 27: West Virginia can really generate offense, but TCU shut down Oklahoma State and will probably do the same to the Mountaineers. However, if this turns into a track meet, TCU could be vulnerable. I don't see that happening as the Horned Frogs appear to be on a collision course with Oklahoma on November 11.
(13) Miami (3 - 0) 26 @ Florida State (2 -1) 23: Miami has lost seven straight to their in-state rivals. This game has produced some of the greatest drama in the history of college football. Florida State won a tough one last week at Wake Forest, but I still haven't seen enough from backup quarterback James Blackman to indicate he can lead his team to victory against a top 15 team. It looks like Miami will break the drought.
(21) Notre Dame (4 - 1) 34 @ North Carolina (1 - 4) 20: Notre Dame has injected themselves in the national conversation, especially since their remaining schedule allows for some more quality wins. North Carolina is in rebuild mode and seems in a bit of disarray. Don't be surprised if the Irish are in the playoff mix if they keep finding ways to win. Their one-point loss to Georgia will continue to be more impressive as the Bulldogs chalk up impressive wins.
LSU (3 - 2) 23 @ (21) Florida (3 - 1) 21: Florida has been extremely fortunate this season, and LSU has not looked good at all. But something tells me the Troy loss may give the Tigers a wake-up call to try to salvage their season. I'm not sold on the Gators and think LSU just has too much talent to remain dormant.
Maryland (3 - 1) 20 @ (10) Ohio State (4 - 1) 37: Ohio State needs to be on guard, but Maryland's porous defense gives the Buckeyes a chance to score some points. For Ohio State to get back to the playoffs, they can't afford another loss, and I think they'll take care of business.
Oregon State (1 - 4) 17 @ (10) USC (4 - 1) 44: Oregon State is one of the weakest Power Five teams and it will give USC a chance to rebound from their loss to Washington State. Look for the Trojans to try to get some style points with big win over the Beavers.
(1) Alabama (5 - 0) 30 @ Texas A&M (4 - 1) 31: I've maintained from the start of the season that I didn't think Alabama would run the table this year. Despite drilling Ole Miss last week, the Tide have some defensive injuries and A&M has shown the ability to score points. I'm going out on a big limb and predicting that the Aggies pull a huge upset at home to throw a monkey wrench into the national picture.
(16) Virginia Tech (4 - 1) 34 @ Boston College (2 - 3) 17: The Hokies lost an emotional game to Clemson last week but still control their own destiny in the ACC Coastal. But to have a chance at returning to the ACC championship game, they have to collect themselves, head to Boston and take care of business against an improved but still over matched Eagles team. They should be able to get back on track, but the Hokies drop one of these apparently slam dunks every season.
Michigan State (3 - 1) 17 @ (7) Michigan (4 - 0) 27: Michigan State scored a surprising win over Iowa last week, but they face a daunting task to upend Michigan in the Big House. Even though Michigan's offense hasn't been particularly impressive so far, their defense has been stellar. I think State is a year away from contending in this one.
(9) Wisconsin (4 - 0) 30 @ Nebraska (3 - 2) 24: I'm not sure we can take much from Nebraska's victory over Illinois, but they seem to have gotten some things corrected that resulted in consecutive losses to Oregon and Northern Illinois. Wisconsin hasn't played any tough competition and struggled a bit against Northwestern last week. The Badgers need a better effort against the 'Huskers if they want to make a run at the playoffs.
(11) Washington State (5 - 0) 42 @ Oregon (4 - 1) 31: This will be the test that Washington State needs to pass to be taken seriously. After a tough season a year ago, Oregon has turned it around under new coach Willie Taggert. But the Ducks still have some defensive issues that Washington State will exploit.
(25) UCF (3 - 0) 37 @ Cincinnati (2 - 3) 17: UCF, due to Hurricane Irma, had two games cancelled and another one rescheduled. They've gone largely unnoticed and overshadowed by their fellow AAC foe South Florida. But the Knights are a good team and will put up some points on Cincinnati tonight.
Stanford (3 - 2) 30 @ (20) Utah (4 - 0) 20: After a rough start to the season, Stanford appears to be hitting stride, especially offensively. While Utah is undefeated, their schedule thus far has been pretty weak. I like Stanford to pound the ball with running back Bryce Love, who has turned out to be a very suitable replacement for Mr. Everything Christian McCaffery.
California (3 - 2) 21 @ (6) Washington (5 - 0) 34: Cal started 3 - 0 but now reality has set in. Washington needs to stay focused though, because the Bears are just good enough to cause them problems if they get some breaks.
(19) San Diego State (5 - 0) 40 @ UNLV (2 - 2) 16: San Diego State is in a race with South Florida to remain in the hunt for a New Year's Day bowl game. UNLV probably won't pose much of a problem for a team that has already beaten two Pac-12 teams.
Duke (4 - 1) 21 @ Virginia (3 - 1) 27: After a few years of fielding largely noncompetitive teams, Virginia stunned Boise State on the Broncos' home blue turf. Duke started 4 - 0, but looked pretty average against Miami last week. The Wahoo fans will be up for this one in Charlottesville, so I'll go with the Cavs to win.
Kansas State (3 - 1) 24 @ Texas (2 - 2) 27: I'm just not sold on Kansas State and their high school caliber non-cnference schedule. Texas is definitely on the rise and should be able to take care of the Wildcats today in Austin. If they don't, the Tom Heman era will be off to a pretty rocky start.
Illinois (2 - 2) 10 @ Iowa (3 - 2) 27: This game should look a lot like last week's Nebraska win over Illinois. Iowa was surprised by Michigan State a week ago, but they'll be able to contain Illinois and score enough points to win.
Minnesota (3 - 1) 24 @ Purdue (2 - 2) 30: This is a surprisingly tough pick, especially since Minnesota hasn't beaten a quality opponent. Purdue has played a couple of top 20 teams tough, so I'll take the Boilermakers to come out on top at home.
Arkansas (2 - 2) 27 @ South Carolina (3 - 2) 20: After an impressive start to the season, South Carolina has struggled the last three weeks. Arkansas looked pretty good in defeat against Texas A&M and then followed it up with a strong defensive performance in a win over New Mexico State last week. If the Hogs can get their running game going, they should be able to control the clock and make it difficult for South Carolina to put points on the board.
Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/
Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show
Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.
Last Week: 24 - 3 88.9%
Overall: 115 - 25 82.4%
Thursday: (from my appearance Thursday on Lou in the Morning)
(17) Louisville (4 - 1) 31 @ (24) NC State (4 - 1) 34: This has turned out to be a very compelling game. With a victory over Florida State a couple of weeks ago, NC State has injected itself into the ACC Atlantic division title race. The Wolfpack has a good defense and enough offensive power to take advantage of Louisville's less than average defense. This will be a difficult environment for the Cardinals and I look for the Wolfpack to come away with the win.
Friday:
Boise State (2 - 2) 24 @ BYU (1 - 4) 20: BYU just can't seem to generate any consistent offense this season, but Boise hasn't exactly been a point producing machine. Virginia exposed some big weaknesses of the Boise defense, but I don't believe BYU has the weapons to take advantage of it. Even though this game is in Utah, I expect Boise State to come out on top in what could be a low scoring affair.
Saturday:
Wake Forest (4 - 1) 14 @ (2) Clemson (5 - 0) 30:Wake Forest may have the most unfortunate scheduling in the ACC, with consecutive games against Florida State, at Clemson, at Georgia Tech, Louisville and at Notre Dame. The Deacs are a good team, but they'll be over matched against a Clemson team that might be the best in the country...again. The Tigers dominated a pretty good Virginia Tech team in Blacksburg a week ago and just have too many athletes for Wake Forest.
Iowa State (2 - 2) 13 @ (3) Oklahoma (4 - 0) 34: After a week off, Oklahoma begins to get to the meat of its conference schedule, but not until next week. The Sooners should have little trouble with the Cyclones, as long as they don't start looking ahead to next week's showdown with an improving Texas team.
(4) Penn State (5 - 0) 37 @ Northwestern (2 - 2) 20: Penn State has the most dynamic player in college football in Saquon Barkley, with 960 yards from scrimmage.Northwestern just doesn't have the horses to compete with the Nittany Lions.
(5) Georgia (5 - 0) 31 @ Vanderbilt (3 - 2) 16: Georgia head coach Kirby Smart has his Bulldogs on a roll and playing at a high level. Georgia is in a great position to enter their rivalry game against Florida in a couple of weeks with a 7 - 0 record. Vanderbilt is decent, but it'll take some breaks for them to have a chance in this one.
Ole Miss (2 - 2) 17 @ (12) Auburn (4 - 1) 37: Ole Miss was exposed against Alabama last week and Auburn just continues to rack up victories. The SEC West is very competitive as usual and with Auburn's only loss coming against Clemson, we can't underestimate the chances of the Tigers to contend for the division title.
(23) West Virginia (3 - 1) 23 @ (8) TCU (4 - 0) 27: West Virginia can really generate offense, but TCU shut down Oklahoma State and will probably do the same to the Mountaineers. However, if this turns into a track meet, TCU could be vulnerable. I don't see that happening as the Horned Frogs appear to be on a collision course with Oklahoma on November 11.
(13) Miami (3 - 0) 26 @ Florida State (2 -1) 23: Miami has lost seven straight to their in-state rivals. This game has produced some of the greatest drama in the history of college football. Florida State won a tough one last week at Wake Forest, but I still haven't seen enough from backup quarterback James Blackman to indicate he can lead his team to victory against a top 15 team. It looks like Miami will break the drought.
(21) Notre Dame (4 - 1) 34 @ North Carolina (1 - 4) 20: Notre Dame has injected themselves in the national conversation, especially since their remaining schedule allows for some more quality wins. North Carolina is in rebuild mode and seems in a bit of disarray. Don't be surprised if the Irish are in the playoff mix if they keep finding ways to win. Their one-point loss to Georgia will continue to be more impressive as the Bulldogs chalk up impressive wins.
LSU (3 - 2) 23 @ (21) Florida (3 - 1) 21: Florida has been extremely fortunate this season, and LSU has not looked good at all. But something tells me the Troy loss may give the Tigers a wake-up call to try to salvage their season. I'm not sold on the Gators and think LSU just has too much talent to remain dormant.
Maryland (3 - 1) 20 @ (10) Ohio State (4 - 1) 37: Ohio State needs to be on guard, but Maryland's porous defense gives the Buckeyes a chance to score some points. For Ohio State to get back to the playoffs, they can't afford another loss, and I think they'll take care of business.
Oregon State (1 - 4) 17 @ (10) USC (4 - 1) 44: Oregon State is one of the weakest Power Five teams and it will give USC a chance to rebound from their loss to Washington State. Look for the Trojans to try to get some style points with big win over the Beavers.
(1) Alabama (5 - 0) 30 @ Texas A&M (4 - 1) 31: I've maintained from the start of the season that I didn't think Alabama would run the table this year. Despite drilling Ole Miss last week, the Tide have some defensive injuries and A&M has shown the ability to score points. I'm going out on a big limb and predicting that the Aggies pull a huge upset at home to throw a monkey wrench into the national picture.
(16) Virginia Tech (4 - 1) 34 @ Boston College (2 - 3) 17: The Hokies lost an emotional game to Clemson last week but still control their own destiny in the ACC Coastal. But to have a chance at returning to the ACC championship game, they have to collect themselves, head to Boston and take care of business against an improved but still over matched Eagles team. They should be able to get back on track, but the Hokies drop one of these apparently slam dunks every season.
Michigan State (3 - 1) 17 @ (7) Michigan (4 - 0) 27: Michigan State scored a surprising win over Iowa last week, but they face a daunting task to upend Michigan in the Big House. Even though Michigan's offense hasn't been particularly impressive so far, their defense has been stellar. I think State is a year away from contending in this one.
(9) Wisconsin (4 - 0) 30 @ Nebraska (3 - 2) 24: I'm not sure we can take much from Nebraska's victory over Illinois, but they seem to have gotten some things corrected that resulted in consecutive losses to Oregon and Northern Illinois. Wisconsin hasn't played any tough competition and struggled a bit against Northwestern last week. The Badgers need a better effort against the 'Huskers if they want to make a run at the playoffs.
(11) Washington State (5 - 0) 42 @ Oregon (4 - 1) 31: This will be the test that Washington State needs to pass to be taken seriously. After a tough season a year ago, Oregon has turned it around under new coach Willie Taggert. But the Ducks still have some defensive issues that Washington State will exploit.
(25) UCF (3 - 0) 37 @ Cincinnati (2 - 3) 17: UCF, due to Hurricane Irma, had two games cancelled and another one rescheduled. They've gone largely unnoticed and overshadowed by their fellow AAC foe South Florida. But the Knights are a good team and will put up some points on Cincinnati tonight.
Stanford (3 - 2) 30 @ (20) Utah (4 - 0) 20: After a rough start to the season, Stanford appears to be hitting stride, especially offensively. While Utah is undefeated, their schedule thus far has been pretty weak. I like Stanford to pound the ball with running back Bryce Love, who has turned out to be a very suitable replacement for Mr. Everything Christian McCaffery.
California (3 - 2) 21 @ (6) Washington (5 - 0) 34: Cal started 3 - 0 but now reality has set in. Washington needs to stay focused though, because the Bears are just good enough to cause them problems if they get some breaks.
(19) San Diego State (5 - 0) 40 @ UNLV (2 - 2) 16: San Diego State is in a race with South Florida to remain in the hunt for a New Year's Day bowl game. UNLV probably won't pose much of a problem for a team that has already beaten two Pac-12 teams.
Duke (4 - 1) 21 @ Virginia (3 - 1) 27: After a few years of fielding largely noncompetitive teams, Virginia stunned Boise State on the Broncos' home blue turf. Duke started 4 - 0, but looked pretty average against Miami last week. The Wahoo fans will be up for this one in Charlottesville, so I'll go with the Cavs to win.
Kansas State (3 - 1) 24 @ Texas (2 - 2) 27: I'm just not sold on Kansas State and their high school caliber non-cnference schedule. Texas is definitely on the rise and should be able to take care of the Wildcats today in Austin. If they don't, the Tom Heman era will be off to a pretty rocky start.
Illinois (2 - 2) 10 @ Iowa (3 - 2) 27: This game should look a lot like last week's Nebraska win over Illinois. Iowa was surprised by Michigan State a week ago, but they'll be able to contain Illinois and score enough points to win.
Minnesota (3 - 1) 24 @ Purdue (2 - 2) 30: This is a surprisingly tough pick, especially since Minnesota hasn't beaten a quality opponent. Purdue has played a couple of top 20 teams tough, so I'll take the Boilermakers to come out on top at home.
Arkansas (2 - 2) 27 @ South Carolina (3 - 2) 20: After an impressive start to the season, South Carolina has struggled the last three weeks. Arkansas looked pretty good in defeat against Texas A&M and then followed it up with a strong defensive performance in a win over New Mexico State last week. If the Hogs can get their running game going, they should be able to control the clock and make it difficult for South Carolina to put points on the board.
Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/
Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show
Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.
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