This piece will compare each of the divisions in the Power
Five (the Big 12 will be treated as a division) and see how they look against
each other. It’s generally considered that the SEC is the strongest conference,
yet fans of the Big 10 tend to differ with that assessment. There have been
times in the recent past when the ACC attempted to make a case that it was the
top power conference. I conducted an extensive study based on rankings in
Lindy’s Sports College Football preview. Granted, it’s just based on a single
publication, but my past experience with Lindy’s has led me to believe it’s as
credible as any of the others. The results of this study don’t generally
predict that the winners of those higher ranked divisions (or the Big 12) will
necessarily be in the playoffs. The downside for a tough division or conference
is that cannibalization within the league can diminish the champion’s chance of
emerging as a national title contender.
I’m going to break down each division in reverse order,
beginning with the worst, at least statistically and assess the chances of the
champion to have a good regular season run and have an opportunity to get into
the playoffs. Some of this logic might seem counterintuitive, but stay with me
and it’s possible you’ll begin to see where I’m headed.
ACC Coastal
The highest ranked team in this division is Miami, and their
19th place by Lindy’s is dubious at best. This is a team that so underperformed
that it prompted the retirement of head coach Mark Richt. New head man Manny
Diaz bailed on Temple after accepting the job and hiring a staff. To say that
uncertainty surrounds the Hurricane program is a gross understatement. And this
is the cream of Coastal crop? You’re probably starting to understand why this
is the worst division in Power Five football. But the news isn’t totally
negative. Because of the weakness of the division, there is a real possibility
that a team could emerge with a single loss, or even undefeated, to challenge
what most people surmise will be defending national champions Clemson for the
conference championship. The top three teams in the division have three of the
easiest schedules in the Power Five. Virginia Tech leads the way, mostly
because of an embarrassing non-conference slate. But they also avoid the top teams
from the Atlantic division, meaning their season basically comes down to the
two road contests at Miami and Virginia. Throw into the mix that they return
eight starters on defense for nationally recognized coordinator Bud Foster’s
last season and you can figure things could be magical for the Hokies. And as a
Tech alum, I can’t help but point out Virginia hasn’t defeated the Hokies since
the George W. Bush administration. It comes down to October 6 in Miami for the
chance to take on Clemson. PICK: Virginia Tech
ACC Atlantic
There’s Clemson and then...okay, I have to give Syracuse
some love here. But given the relative weakness of Clemson’s conference
schedule, the Orange’s only hope is to take down the Tigers when they visit the
Carrier Dome. Syracuse had Clemson on the ropes last year in Death Valley after
an injury to freshman sensation Trevor Lawrence, but let them off the hook.
Clemson and Syracuse both dodge Miami, Virginia Tech and Virginia. Clemson
faces Georgia Tech and North Carolina, arguably the bottom feeders of the worst
division in the Power Five, while Syracuse takes on Pittsburgh and Duke, slight
upgrades over the Tigers’ non-division slate. Without the power of Clemson,
this division would be the laughing stock of college football. They don’t
schedule anyone and internally are mediocre at best. Florida State made a bad
hire in Willie Taggert and his team demonstrated that by quitting on their
coach in embarrassing fashion down the stretch last season. ‘Noles have to meet
Miami and Virginia, tying them with Louisville for the toughest non-division
schedule in the Atlantic. If Florida State can’t resurrect their program, the
ACC’s in big trouble, especially since a similar situation presented itself at
Louisville, when the Cardinals dropped their final nine games and gave up over
50 points in six of those losses. The big question is whether the playoff
committee will take the weakness of the conference into consideration when
making their picks for the semifinals. PICK: Clemson
Pac-12 South
The Pac-12 is an extremely unbalanced league: I’m talking
about the respective divisions not the coaches or players. Unlike the North,
the South has only one ranked team. When you get past Utah, I just don’t see
anyone else with a shot at winning the division, primarily because USC, the
other contender, has a brutal conference schedule. They also have a very tough
non-conference slate, so I have a hard time seeing the Trojans building any
momentum in their season. Utah will benefit from the fourth easiest
non-division conference schedule as well as unimpressive non-conference games.
The Utes dodge both Oregon and Stanford and have games against Cal and Oregon
State, the two bottom feeders in the North. Other than Utah and USC, we’re
probably looking at an array of teams just trying to make it into a bowl game.
This division only had two bowl teams last season and it appears they may be
able to increase that by one if USC can navigate their difficult schedule.
UCLA, in Chip Kelly’s second season, might be able to get to six or seven wins
because they don’t have to face Oregon or Washington. Their problem will be
dealing with a road game against Cincinnati to open the season and then a home
contest with Oklahoma in week three. Arizona State coach Herman Edwards has a
favorable schedule to get his Sun Devils into a second consecutive bowl game.
Colorado has almost no chance. They face the top four teams from the North,
giving them the most difficult non-division schedule in the conference. PICK:
Utah
Big 12
This is the only conference in the Power Five that plays a
round robin league schedule because they are not split into divisions. The
conference would rate out much higher except for getting dragged down by
Kansas’ 94th ranking. Oklahoma’s number four serves to offset the Jayhawks’
weakness, but for the most part it’s a fairly well balanced league. There are
four new coaches in the Big 12, some of them fairly high profile moves for
different reasons. Longtime Kansas State leader Bill Snyder finally stepped
down after a quarter century in Manhattan in two stints. Without Snyder,
K-State was barely competitive and it will be interesting to see if Chris
Klieman can replicate his success at FCS North Dakota State where he won four
national championships in five years. My guess is it’ll be tough. At in-state
rival Kansas, Les Miles will bring his unique style and grass eating quirk to
Lawrence hoping to do something few have done there: build a consistent winner.
My sense is that with the backing of former PIttsburgh and Arkansas athletic
director Jeff Long, he has a chance. And in one of the strangest occurrences in
recent memory, Texas Tech fired coach Kliff Kingsbury who ended up as the head
guy of the NFL’s Arizona Cardinals. Say what? But at the end of the season, the
Big 12 will most likely belong to Oklahoma once again, but it won’t be easy. Defensive
minded Texas and Iowa State will challenge the Sooners. Texas lost eight
defensive starters, so they may need to more consistently show the kind of
offense they displayed in a 48 - 45 win over Oklahoma if they’re going to
challenge for the title again. The Longhorns will also have the opportunity to
grab some early season love if they can take down LSU in week two. The same can
be said for Iowa State, a tough defensive team that had three games where they
scored less than 15 points last season. That just won’t get it done in the high
scoring Big 12. At the end of the season, I still believe in Oklahoma, but I
wouldn’t sleep on Texas. PICK: Oklahoma
Big Ten East
With four teams in the top 26 and the other three in ranked
between 58 and 100, this is perhaps the most top-heavy division in the power
five. The big question will once surround Michigan’s ability to defeat rival
Ohio State for the first time in Wolverine coach Jim Harbaugh’s five year
tenure. With a new coach in Columbus and the game at Michigan, perhaps the home
team has its best chance in many years to advance to the Big Ten championship
game. If so, the Wolverines will have to
overcome a tough non-division schedule in the conference. They travel to
Wisconsin and host Iowa, the top two teams from the West. Harbaugh’s squad also
hosts Notre Dame, translating into the sixth most difficult Power Five
schedule. Can Harbaugh reload on defense, where he lost seven starters? Ohio
State, Michigan’s primary challenger, face the second toughest non-division
schedule in the conference. Besides travelling to the aforementioned Michigan
to end the regular season, the Buckeyes also travel to Nebraska and
Northwestern and host Wisconsin. Michigan State could challenge, but they have
to visit Wisconsin and Northwestern, so none of the top three in the east get much
of a break. Penn State faces just one of the top teams from the west, so they
may have a slight advantage in the non-division schedule, but they have a new
quarterback that will facing stout Gig 10 defenses. Overall, I have to give
Michigan the edge, but it’s slight and depends greatly on that last game in the
Big House. PICK: Michigan
Big Ten West
The primary difference between the Big Ten divisions is that
the West only has one team ranked worse than 50th, while the East has three.
Even though the East has two top ten teams, the West is a little deeper and
more balanced. While this may look like a battle between Iowa and Wisconsin,
the non-division schedules will probably play a big role in letting Nebraska
into the hunt. Wisconsin has the third most difficult non-division schedule in
the entire Power Five, taking on Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State, the
three top teams from the East. Talk about the luck of the draw. Meanwhile, Iowa
meets Rutgers, Michigan and Penn State. And finally there’s the Cornhuskers’ non-division
slate of Ohio State, Indiana and Maryland. Advantage Nebraska. I like Scott
Frost’s chances in his second season at the helm of the Cornhuskers. They won
four of their last six games after dropping their first six. The last one of
those six was an overtime loss to Northwestern that they should have pulled
out. The other two losses down the stretch were close ones at Ohio State and
Iowa. I like Nebraska’s chances this time around to at least get to the Big Ten
championship, based primarily on the schedule. Iowa and Wisconsin might be
slightly better teams, but Nebraska hosts them both and probably owns a game
advantage in the non-division. PICK: Nebraska
Pac-12 North
If the Pac-12 South is underwhelming, the North is downright
exciting. Oregon , Washington, Stanford and Washington State will be on the
national radar for most of the season. With the exception of Washington, they
all play compelling non-conference games. Oregon opens with SEC member Auburn,
Stanford boasts the country’s toughest non-conference schedule and Washington
State travels to Houston to give an AAC team a shot at a Power Five upset. If
Oregon State was predicted to be more competitive, this could have been in the
running for the toughest division in college football. Even as it stands, it’s going
to be a dogfight. Just like in the Big Ten West, it may come down to who gets
to dodge South favorite Utah. Washington hosts the Utes, while Washington State
has to travel to Salt Lake City. Neither Oregon nor Stanford will have to deal
with Utah. I’m not yet sold on Oregon because of that mediocre defense. I like
Stanford, but their schedule might wear them down by the end of the season.
Washington State has road games with Utah, Arizona State, Oregon and Washington
which leads me to question whether they can prevail in the North. Based on the
schedule, I like Washington to repeat, but it may come down once again to the
season finale against archrival Washington State. PICK: Washington
SEC East
All SEC haters are going to refute these rankings, but it’s
pretty clear that the strongest conference in the land is the one currently
ruled by the Alabama Crimson Tide. Even though it’s close, the SEC East falls
just short of the West. The strength of the division is predicted once again to
be the Georgia Bulldogs, even though they lost eight offensive starters. The
key is that Jake Fromm returns at quarterback. The Florida Gators, most likely
because they return eight starters off a unit that ranked 20th in points given
up in 2018, is also highly regarded. In terms of scheduling, South Carolina has
by far the most difficult one in the division. Not only is the SEC East tough,
but the Gamecocks also play number two Alabama and number 13 Texas A&M from
the West. To make matters worse, they also face top ranked Clemson to end the
season. That all adds up to half of their schedule against top 25 teams.
Compare that with Missouri, which plays just two top twenty-five teams and gets
to take on Ole Miss and Arkansas from the West, the two worst ranked teams in
the division. They also face no one higher than 63rd in their non-conference
games. That’s quite an inequity for two teams playing in the same
division. Georgia plays at Auburn and
hosts Texas A&M, but despite the tough schedule they’re still my pick for
the division. PICK: Georgia
SEC West:
Could this be the year that someone unseats Alabama and
keeps them from the college football playoffs? In 2017 they tied for the
division crown, didn’t make the SEC championship but still won the national
title. This season, the SEC West is statistically the toughest division in
college football. With Alabama, Auburn, LSU and Texas A&M all ranked in the
top 15, the winner will need to navigate a very difficult schedule just within
the division. Alabama sports the second easiest non-division schedule and the
second easiest non-conference schedule, so they’re path to title is among the
softest in the conference. In stark contrast, Auburn must play Georgia and
Florida, giving it the most difficult non-division schedule in the Power Five
conferences. That’s an inequity of great proportion and something the SEC needs
to address, most likely by moving to a nine game conference schedule. But that’s
not happening anytime soon, and certainly not in time to help Auburn this
season. They also take on Oregon to open the season. LSU also faces an easier
non-division slate, hosting Florida and traveling to Vanderbilt, but the Tigers
will be heading to Tuscaloosa in what might be the game of the season in the
SEC West. Even though the Crimson Tide have a favorable schedule, I just have a
feeling that this might be the year that Alabama fails to meet expectations.
Someone has to end up in the championship game in Atlanta, but they might very
well have a couple of losses. I like LSU, primarily because they finally have a
quarterback in Joe Burrow to go with a defense that returns eight players from a
pretty good defense. We’ll get to see pretty early when the Tigers travel to
Texas in week two. PICK: LSU
Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/
Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show
Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com . Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.
Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/
Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show
Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com . Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.
