COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK FIVE PREDICTIONS

Last Week:

Straight-up:        18 - 10   64.2%

ATS:                   16 - 12   57.1%

Overall:

Straight-up:        68 - 19   78.2%

ATS:                   43 - 44   49.4%

Friday:

Duke (2 - 1) (0 - 0) 27 @ Virginia Tech (2 - 1) (0 - 1) (-2.5) 31: It looks like everyone in the ACC Coastal will be chasing Virginia for the division title. Va. Tech already has an early loss to Boston College and can’t afford another one if they’re going to contend. Both of these teams have a couple of wins over lesser competition, with Duke’s being a little more impressive. I still like the Hokies to put a game together with a young team.

(12) Penn State (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-7.0) 27 @ Maryland (2 - 1) (0 - 0) 21: These two teams looked impressive early but stumbled a bit before an off week. Penn State struggled in a tough win over Pittsburgh, while Maryland stubbed their toe in a loss to Temple. I believe Penn State just has too much for Maryland on both sides of the ball, but this could be a tight one.

Arizona State (3 - 1) (0 - 1) 27 @ (15) California (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-5.0) 24: The Pac-12 is emerging as a pretty tough and deep conference. Cal’s upset win over Washington followed by a win at Ole Miss has the Bears in lofty territory. Arizona State got surprised by a vastly improved Colorado team last week, but I like what Herm Edwards is doing in the desert and think we might get an upset in the bay area tonight.

Saturday:

Texas Tech (2 - 1) (0 - 0) 17 @ (6) Oklahoma (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-27.0) 38: I believe Oklahoma has started the season as impressively as any team in the nation. Despite being improved, I don’t think Texas Tech can stay with the Sooners, especially in Norman.

Northwestern (1 - 2) (0 - 1)10 @ (8) Wisconsin (3 - 0) (1 - 0) (-24.0) 37: Wisconsin is in the same small group as Oklahoma. Northwestern hasn’t been impressive, but if they can slow down Jonathan Taylor perhaps they can keep this one close. That’s a big if that I just don’t think will happen.

Middle Tennessee (1 - 2) 10 @ (14) Iowa (3 - 0) (-24.5) 38: This shouldn’t be much of a problem for Iowa.

Rutgers (1 - 2) (0 - 1) 17 @ (20) Michigan (2 - 1) (0 - 1) (-27.5) 34: Michigan was totally overmatched at Wisconsin last week, putting head coach Jim Harbaugh squarely on the hot seat. The Wolverines should be able to take care of Rutgers, but after a couple of subpar performances, Michigan needs to find some offense if they are to give their faithful any hope for the rest of the season.

(23) Texas A&M (2 - 2) (0 - 1) (-23.5) 37 vs. Arkansas (2 - 2) (0 - 1) (Arlington, Texas) 16 : Arkansas has a deceptively decent record after getting scorched by a less than mediocre San Jose State team last week. Arkansas needs to make some quick improvements on defense, and I just don’t see it happening. A&M has lost to two top  seven teams and should be able to feel better around 3:00 pm Saturday.

Kansas (2 - 2) (0 - 1) 20@ TCU (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-15.5) 27:  Kansas has shown some improvement under new head coach Les Miles and TCU looks vulnerable after a loss to SMU last week. But TCU averages more yards on offense and gives up less on defense than Kansas, so I’ll stay with the Horned Frogs in a close game.

(1) Clemson (4 - 0) (2 - 0) (-26.5) 42 @ North Carolina (2 - 2) (1 - 0) 13: North Carolina showed some promise in the first two games under returning head coach Mack Brown. But the last two weeks have been disappointing with losses to Wake Forest and Appalachian State. With Clemson coming to town, the Tar Heels will have to take a huge step up in their quality of play.

Ole Miss (2 - 2) (1 - 0) 10 @ (2) Alabama (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-30.5) 38: Alabama hasn’t really played any big boy football teams yet, and this one barely qualifies. But it’s another conference game and will ease the Tide into the meat of their schedule. I don’t think Ole Miss can stay with Alabama.

(18) Virginia (4 - 0) 17 @ (10) Notre Dame (2 - 1) (-12.0) 27: This is Virginia’s big chance to make a statement with what is their best team of the last fifteen seasons. Notre Dame is coming off a tough loss to Georgia and if they can recover, they should win since they have the better team. Virginia’s offense has been a bit sluggish, so I look for the Irish to have a big defensive game.

(21) USC (3 - 1) (2 - 0) 27 @ (17) Washington (3 - 1) (0 - 1) (9.5) 24: USC is down to its third quarterback, but he was up to the task on the road at Utah last week. It will take another great effort against the Huskies and I’ll stay on the Trojan bandwagon. Their  speed is the difference.

Indiana (3 - 1) (0 - 1) 13 @ (25) Michigan State (3 - 1) (1 - 0) (-14.5) 31: After a controversial loss to Arizona State, Michigan State appears to have righted the ship. Indiana is solid but doesn’t have enough to beat the Spartans on the road.

Minnesota (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-1.5) 30@ Purdue (1 - 2) (0 - 0) 24: Minnesota hasn’t played much of a schedule so far, but they’ve shown consistent improvement under third year head coach PJ Fleck. I’ll take Minnesota to quietly go 4 - 0.

Towson (3 - 1) 20 @ (9) Florida (4 - 0) (-37.5) 41: Towson is a high level FCS program, so Florida needs to make sure they don’t sleep on the Tigers. I have a feeling that the Gators might be a bit surprised in this one.

Georgia Tech (1 - 2) 21 @ Temple (2 - 1) (-9.5) 34: Georgia Tech is having a tough time under first year head coach Geoff Collins. It won’t get much easier against a Temple team that took out a hot Maryland team.

Wake Forest (4 - 0) (0 - 0) (-7.0) 30 @ Boston College (3 - 1) (1 - 0) 21: Wake is another surprising team that has been mostly under the radar. The lone blemish on Boston College’s resume is a fourth quarter collapse against Kansas. I like Wake’s consistency and toughness on defense.

Mississippi State (3 - 1) (1 - 0) 27 @ (7) Auburn (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-11.0) 30: Auburn’s season-opening win over Oregon is looking better and they’re drubbing of Texas A&M made some believers in this team. Mississippi State beat a pretty good Kentucky team last week, so this one might be closer than the line indicates.

UConn (1 - 2) (0 - 0) 10 @(22) UCF (3 - 1) (0 - 0) (-43.5) 56: UCF’s last second loss at Pittsburgh took them out of the national championship equation, but they’re still in the hunt for the AAC title and the Group of Five New Year’s Day bowl bid. UConn is barely competitive n FBS, so I’ll go with the Golden Knights to light up the scoreboard at home today.

(24) Kansas State (3 - 0) (0 - 0) 24 @ Oklahoma State (3 - 1) (0 - 1) (-5.0) 27: This is a pretty even game with a stark contrast in styles. Kansas State has a stifling defense and Oklahoma State has an explosive offense.  I’ll flip a coin and go with the home team in a tight game.

Stanford (1 - 3) (0 - 2) (-4.0) 30 @ Oregon State (1 - 2) (0 - 0) 31: Stanford has been a big disappointment this season and they’ll be without their starting quarterback again on the road. This is a tough pick, but I’ll take the slight upset for the Beavers.

(5) Ohio State (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-18.0) 37 @ Nebraska (3 - 1) (1 - 0) 21:  As much as I like Nebraska, they just haven’t played well this year and Ohio State hasn’t missed a beat under new head coach Ryan Day. Last year, the ‘Huskers almost pulled the upset at Ohio State, but if they don’t clean up the mistakes it won’t be possible today in Lincoln.

NC State (3 - 1) (0 - 0) 27 @ Florida State (2 - 2) ( 1- 1) (-6.5) 30: I said it last week  and I’ll repeat it now: Florida State seems to have righted the ship recently. As much as I like NC State, the ‘Noles are moving in the right direction.

Kentucky (2 - 2)(0 -2) 24 @ South Carolina (1 - 3) (0 - 2) (-2.5) 27: Another close pick, with both teams trying to get on the board in the SEC. I’ve been well below par in SEC games, so I’ll flip a coin and go with the home team here.

Washington State (3 - 1) (0 - 1) 34 @ (19) Utah (3 - 1) (0 - 1) (-6.5) 30: Both of these squads are coming off disappointing losses. Washington State lost the wildest game I’ve ever seen, squandering a 49 - 17 third quarter lead in a 67 - 63 loss to UCLA. If I hadn’t watched it, I wouldn’t believe it. Utah couldn’t contain USC, so I’m taking Washington State to race past the Utes.

UCLA (1 - 3) (1 - 0) 27 @ Arizona (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-8.0) 38: UCLA was Cinderella last week at Washington State, but it’s going to turn midnight in Tuscon. The Bruins’ defense is just pathetic and I think Arizona will take advantage of it.  

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com .  Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK FOUR PREDICTIONS

After a decent week two, I rebounded this past weekend, going 26  - 4 for almost 87%. I broke even against the spread, which I hope is a trend in the right direction. There are a lot of compelling games this week as conference play begins in earnest, especially in those conferences that play nine league games.

Last week:

Straight-up                             26 - 4     86.7%

ATS                                        15 - 15   50.0%

Overall:

Straight-up                             50 - 9     84.7%

ATS                                        27 - 32   45.7%

Thursday:

Houston (1 - 2) (0 - 0) 30 @ Tulane (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-5.0) 27: Houston has been through a difficult season-opening stretch. They were competitive against a terrific Oklahoma team and challenged a tough Washington State squad to the end in a seven-point loss.  Tulane was able to hold Auburn to 24 points, but could only manage six points in the loss. I like Houston to break through.

(10) Utah (3 - 0)  (0 - 0) (-4.0) 37 @ USC (2 - 1) (1 - 0) 38: A week ago, this was shaping up as an early-season battle for supremacy in the Pac-12 South. But then USC stumbled against BYU and exposed the weaknesses in their true freshman quarterback. Utah’s defense, one of the best in the country, may do more of the same unless the Trojans make some adjustments in practice this week. But if this ends up in a track meet, my money is on USC.

Air Force (2 - 0) (0 - 0) 28 @ (20) Boise State (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-8.5) 24: Boise State has a couple of close wins against FBS teams while Air Force got a big victory over Pac-12 Colorado. I seem to be on a Friday night upset jag, so why not go for another one?

 

Southern Mississippi (2 - 1) 14 @ (2) Alabama (3 - 0) (-38.5) 56: It looks like it will be another few weeks before Alabama gets a real test, traveling to Texas A&M on October 12. Southern Miss gave up 38 against Mississippi State and 42 to Troy. Alabama will probably put up a bunch. if they want to.

(4) LSU (3 - 0) (0 - 0)(-23.0) 42 @ Vanderbilt (0- 2) (0 - 1) 17: This is potentially a great LSU team, and potentially a not so great Vanderbilt one. I’m not looking for an upset here.

Tennessee (1 - 2) (0 - 0) 14 @ Florida (3 - 0) (1 - 0) (-14.0) 30: Florida eked out an improbable comeback win against Kentucky last week, but shouldn’t need the theatrics this time. Tennessee is a long way from getting competitive in the SEC and this trip to the Swamp won’t be pleasant. 

(11) Michigan (2 - 0) (0 - 0) 20 @ (13) Wisconsin (2 - 0) (0 - 0) (-3.5) 31:  This is one of the premier games of the weekend. Both of these teams had the week off, Michigan to digest their near disaster against Army and Wisconsin to bask in a 61 - 0 thrashing of Central Michigan. Wisconsin is a slight favorite.

(23) California (3 - 0) 23 @ Ole Miss (2 - 1) (-3.5) 20: Kansas State ventured into the state of Mississippi last week and came away with a victory over Mississippi State, a game I correctly predicted. Now a Pac-12 team travels to Oxford with hopes of a similar result. I believe they’ll pull it off. 

Boston College (2 - 1) (-8.0) 31 @ Rutgers (1 - 1) 21: Boston College was looking fairly impressive through two and a half games, then Kansas rang up 28 consecutive points and handed the Eagles their first loss. Rutgers isn’t great, but it might be tough for BC to recover on the road against a team that is coming off an open week after a 31 - 0 loss to Iowa.

Michigan State (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-9.0) 20 @ Northwestern (2 - 1)  (0 - 0) 10: Michigan State is coming off a disappointing loss to Arizona State, so I look for them to shut down Northwestern in a defensive battle.

 

Miami, OH (1 - 2) 9 @ (6) Ohio State (3 - 0) (-39.5) 51: I’m not even sure why I’m bothering to comment on this one. 

(8) Auburn (3 - 0) (0 - 0)21 @ (17) Texas A&M (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-4.0) 27: Before the season started I thought this would be the big test for Texas A&M, and I’m still convinced of that. Auburn has been inconsistent on offense which could be a problem as they head into Kyle Field. I look for the Aggies’ defense to hold Auburn down and their offense to put plenty of points on the board.

(15) UCF (3 - 0)(-12.5) 27 @ Pittsburgh (1 - 2) 20: Pittsburgh is always tough at home and is coming off a pretty good performance in a 17 - 10 loss at Penn State. UCF is on a mission to try to crash the college football playoffs and a loss to Pitt would spoil any chances they have. 

(22) Washington (2 - 1) (-6.0) 30 @ BYU (2 - 1) 21: BYU has two overtime wins, but I don’t think they’ll be able to pull off another one against a refocused Washington team. Even though Washington lost to Cal, that loss may look much better by the end of the season.

SMU (3 - 0) 14 @ (25) TCU (2 - 0) (9.0) 27: SMU is improved, but TCU’s defense is strong as usual. SMU will be moving up in class after three Group of Five victories. Even though I have TCU covering here, I wouldn’t  be surprised to see SMU give them a battle in this Dallas Metroplex rivalry.

(18) Oregon (2 - 1)(0 - 0) (-10.0) 28 @ Stanford (1 - 2) (0 - 1) 20: Stanford has been disappointing since an opening week victory over Northwestern. Oregon just has too much offense for the Cardinal.

Old Dominion (1 - 1) 14 @ (21) Virginia (3 - 0) (-30.5) 42: Old Dominion gave Virginia Tech a tough game earlier in the season, but right now Virginia is playing at a higher level. 

Charlotte (2 - 1) 6 @ (1) Clemson (3 - 0) (-41.5) 48: The bus ride home will seem a lot longer than a couple of hours for Charlotte after taking on Clemson in Death Valley.

Oklahoma State (3 - 0)(0 - 0)27@ (12) Texas (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-5.0) 31: There are a lot of people jumping on the Oklahoma State bandwagon, but I like Texas despite the loss to LSU. It’ll be close, but the Longhorns should prevail at home.

(7) Notre Dame (2 - 0) 24 @ (3) Georgia (3 - 0) (-13.5) 34: This just isn’t a good matchup for the Irish. They’re vulnerable against the run and the Bulldogs are very effective on the ground. Still, it’s great to see these two teams playing this brief home and home series. The SEC needs all the non-conference Power Five wins they can get.

Colorado (2 - 1) (0 - 0)14 @ (24) Arizona State (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-7.5) 27: Arizona head coach Herm Edwards has done a great job in resurrecting the Sun Devil program. Colorado is improved, but Arizona State’s defense is tough.

UCLA (0 -3) (0 - 0) 21 @ (19) Washington State (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-18.5) 41: I have no idea what’s happening at UCLA, and from the looks of things, neither does head coach Chip Kelly. They’re terrible against the pass and Washington State should light up the scoreboard today. 

Louisville (2 - 1)(0 - 0) 24@ Florida State (1 - 2) (0 - 1) (-6.5) 30: It’s hard to believe that it wasn’t that long ago this game was meaningful on the national level. Not so much anymore. Florida State showed some signs of life at Virginia last week, so I’m going to give the ‘Noles some love at home.

West Virginia (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-5.0) 27@ Kansas (2 - 1) (0 - 0) 30: Both of these teams surprised me last week, so this is a tough one for me. I like what Les Miles has already done for the Jayhawks and I believe they’ll be pretty pumped up at home. I’m smelling upset.

Kentucky (2 - 1) (0 - 1)  27 @ Mississippi State (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-7.0) 24: I’m still not sure why Mississippi State is getting so much love. I think Kentucky is really good and the home team wasn’t impressive against Kansas State last week. I’m going with another road dog, or in this case a road cat, as in Wildcat.

San Jose State (1 - 1) 17@ Arkansas (2 - 1) (-20.5) 41: Arkansas appears to have found an answer at quarterback, finally benching SMU transfer Ben Hicks in favor of Texas A&M transfer Nick Starkel. The Hog faithful have been waiting for over a season for head coach Chad Morris to show some offensive firepower and the 55 points against Colorado State is a step in the right direction. 

South Carolina (1 - 2) (0 - 1) 20 @ Missouri (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-9.5) 31: Missouri had an opening hiccup against Wyoming but has rebounded nicely. South Carolina had a tough game against Alabama last week and teams don’t generally fare well following a game against the Crimson Tide. 

Nebraska (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-7.0) 34 @ Illinois (2 - 1) (0 - 0) 24: Nebraska let one get away a couple of weeks at Colorado, but should be able to handle an Illinois team that is coming off a loss to Eastern Michigan, one of the bottom 30 teams in the FBS. The ‘Huskers should be able to put up some points on the Illini.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com .  Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.