COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK SEVEN PREDICTIONS

Last Week:

 

Straight Up:        18 - 8       69.2%

ATS:                    18- 8       69.2%

Overall:

Straight Up:        109 - 31    77.8%

ATS:                    71 - 69     50.7%

Thursday:

Syracuse (3 - 2) (0 - 1) 24 @ NC State (3 - 2) (0 - 1) (4.5) 30: The ACC is difficult to predict because almost all of the teams are inconsistent, mediocre or just plain bad. These two teams qualify as the first two. I’ll take NC State, but only because they’re at home.

Friday:

(20) Virginia (4 - 1) (2 - 0) 31 @ Miami (2 - 3) (0 - 2) (-2.0) 23: Miami gets their second team from the Commonwealth of Virginia at home in as many weeks. The ‘Canes should have completed the big comeback against Virginia Tech, but fell just short. They’ll need at least as good an effort this week to stay on the field with the Cavs.

Colorado (3 - 2) (1 - 1) 17 @ (13) Oregon (4 - 1) (2 - 0) (-21.0) 37: Suddenly, Oregon is clearly the class of the Pac-12 North. Colorado still has a shot at the South, but will need a big effort in Eugene to keep their division title hopes alive.

Saturday:

South Carolina (2 - 3) (1 - 2) 13 @ Georgia  (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-24.5) 41: Georgia is easing into the meat of their schedule against a decent South Carolina team, but the Gamecocks can’t hang with the Bulldogs. South Carolina’s rushing defense is decent, but it’s not elite enough to contain Georgia’s 250 yards/game attack.

(6) Oklahoma (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-10.5) 38 vs. (11) Texas (4 - 1) (2 - 0) 20 (Dallas, TX): Texas took down Oklahoma a year ago, but that was before the Sooners corralled Jalen Hurts at QB and beefed up their defense. This is one of the most intense rivalries in college football, so sometimes the records don’t matter. Oklahoma leads the nation in total yards and just has too much for almost everyone on their schedule, including Texas.

(16) Michigan (4 - 1) (2 - 1) (-19.0) 30 @ Illinois (2 - 3) (0 - 2) 6: Michigan in still struggling on offense against good defenses, but Illinois doesn’t fall into that category.

(23) Memphis (5 - 0) (1 - 0) (-4.0) 27 @ Temple (4 - 1) 24: Memphis has quietly moved into contention for the Group of Five New Year’s Day bowl bid with a balanced offensive attack. Temple surprised Maryland earlier in the season and have a top 20 defense. I’ll stay with Memphis to utilize their balance to win a close one in Philadelphia.

Maryland (3 - 2) (1 - 1) (-6.5)38 @ Purdue (1 - 4) (0 - 2) 17: Purdue has struggled mightily this season while Maryland has been wildly inconsistent. The Boilermakers are outside of the top 100 in both offense and defense, making it difficult for me to see Purdue stopping Maryland or outscoring them.

Mississippi State (3 - 2) (1 - 1) (-6.5) 34 @ Tennessee (1 - 4) (0 -2) 24: Tennessee is having a nightmare of a season and it’s not likely to get any better this week. The Vols are giving up over 165 yards a game and Mississippi State is rushing for over 200 yards a game. That’s not a good matchup for Tennessee.

Rutgers (1 - 4) (0 - 3) 6 @ Indiana (3 -2)(0 -2) (-28.0) 40: The Big 10 is a deep league, but the depth finder stops before it gets to Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have lost 15 of their last 16 games. It will be 16 of 17 after this weekend.

Ga. Tech (1 - 4) (0 - 2) 17 @ Duke (3 - 2) (1 - 1) (-17.0)  38: Duke came back down to earth last week against Pittsburgh after a big win at Va. Tech. Georgia Tech won’t pose the same kind of threat and I look for Duke to regain their offensive firepower.         

(1) Alabama (5 - 0) (2 - 0)(-16.5) 31 @ (24) Texas A&M (3 - 2) (1 - 1) 13: Before the season started, I had this one identified as a game in which Alabama would be challenged. But the Aggies haven’t shown enough offense against Power Five teams for me to think they can be considered a threat against the Tide. Alabama is a bit vulnerable against run, but Texas A&M is only ranked 97th in rushing offense.

Florida State (3 - 2) (2 - 1) 20 @ (2) Clemson (5 - 0) (3 - 0) (-27.5) 31: It wasn’t that long ago that this was one of the premier games of the season, with the winner getting the upper hand not just in the ACC, but nationally. Even though Florida State is showing some improvement with wins over Louisville and NC State, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney had a bye week to correct any issues that resulted in a near loss to UNC in their last game. I like Clemson to win, but not cover.

Michigan State (4 - 2) (2 - 1) 10 @ (8) Wisconsin (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-10.0) 24: With the way Wisconsin has been playing defense, it’s difficult for me to see how a weak offensive Michigan State team can score enough points to top the Badgers.

Washington State (3 - 2) (1 - 2) 24 @ (18) Arizona State (4 - 1) (1 - 1) (-2.5) 28: I’ve been on the Sun Devil bandwagon all season and Washington State just got rid of their defensive coordinator. I’ll stick with Arizona State to take advantage of the Cougars’ disarray.

Texas Tech (3 - 2) (1 - 1) 24 @ (22) Baylor (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-9.0) 34: Baylor is one of the secrets of this season and they’re coming off a big road win against Kansas State. The Bears are in the top 30 in the FBS in both offense and defense and should be able to hold off Texas Tech.

Iowa  State (3 - 2) (1 - 1) (-10.5) 37 @ West Va. (3 - 2) (1 - 1) 24: Iowa State has scored 63% of its points in just 40% of its games, so it’s difficult to predict which offense will show up in Morgantown. West Virginia is ranked 61st in total defense, so this is probably a good chance for the Cyclones to build on their 49 - 24 drubbing of TCU last week.

Rhode Island (1 - 4) 14@ Va. Tech (3 - 2) (-25.5) 41: The Hokies withstood a big comeback by Miami to record their first ACC win of the season and now face a bad FCS team. They should be able to build some much needed confidence at home.

Ole Miss (3 - 3) (2 - 1) 21 @ Missouri (4 - 1) (1 - 0) (-11.0) 34: Missouri has quietly been on a roll since an opening loss to a Wyoming team that still has only one loss. I doubt they can hang with Georgia and Florida in the SEC East, but they should be able to handle the Rebels.

USC (3 - 2) 24 @ (9) Notre Dame (4 - 1) (-11.0) 30: I’ve liked USC’s speed all season, but Notre Dame is playing well on both sides of the ball. This is a big rivalry game and I’ll take the Irish to prevail and stay in the playoff conversation.

(10) Penn State (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-4.5) 24 @ (17) Iowa (4 - 1) (1 - 1) 17: Penn State is fourth in total defense and 11th in total offense while Iowa is fifth in defense, but barely in the top 60 in offense. This is likely to be a low scoring affair, but Penn State has more firepower and I like them to stay in the Big 10 East race.

Louisville (3 - 2) (1 - 1) 27 @ Wake Forest (5 - 0) (1 - 0) (-7.0) 31: These defenses are virtually statistically identical, but Wake Forest is top ten in total offense so I give them the edge in what should be a close and entertaining game.

Nebraska (4 - 2) (2 - 1) 31 @ Minnesota (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-7.5) 29: Minnesota is another one of those undefeated Power Five teams like Baylor and Wake Forest that can make a statement with a big win as they get into the meat of their conference schedules. They haven’t been dominant and will take a step up in class against Nebraska. I like the ‘Huskers to get their offense rolling in a mild upset.

Arkansas (2 - 3) (0 - 2) 27 @ Kentucky (2 - 3) (0 - 3) (-7.0) 24: Arkansas finally made a nice showing against Texas A&M and I look for them to have a good chance to pick up a road conference win. Kentucky played Florida close, but hasn’t been able to duplicate that effort the last couple of games.

(7) Florida (6 - 0) (3 - 0) 27 @ (5) LSU (5 - 0) (1 - 0) (-13.5) 30:  Florida has found a way to win close games and they’ll once again need to be opportunistic to be able to slow down the second ranked passing defense in the country. That’s not unreasonable, as the Gators are giving up less than 200 yards a game through the air. The bigger problem for Florida is if they end up in a shootout, as their offense isn’t explosive enough to stay with LSU.

(15) Utah (4 - 1) (1 - 1) (-14.0) 31 @ Oregon State (2 - 3) (1 - 1) 13: Oregon State is very dangerous offensively, but with the exception of USC, Utah’s 14th rated defense has been able to hold some good offenses in check. In this case, it isn’t a great matchup for Oregon State, as they’re balance offense relies on a strong running game. Utah is giving up less than 60 yards a game on the ground.

Hawaii (4 - 1) (1 - 0) 21@ (14) Boise State (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-12.5) 30: These two teams are very close offensively, although Hawaii scores about five points more per game. The Rainbow Warriors have had a week off to prepare for the frontrunner in the New Year’s Day Six sweepstakes. The difference is the Boise State defense, which should be able to contain Hawaii.

Washington (4 - 2) (1 - 2) (-9.5)30 @ Arizona (4 - 1) (3 - 0) 37: I’ve been a big Arizona fan all season and they haven’t lost since an opening upset at the hands of Hawaii in the islands. Washington has been inconsistent and Arizona is averaging over 500 yards a game, especially when quarterback sensation Khalil Tate is on the field.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com .  Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK SIX PREDICTIONS

I bounced back nicely from a dismal week 4 to go 23 - 4 in week 5. This week there are some tight games as conference play gets into full swing. The headliner has number 7 Auburn heading into the Swamp to take on 10th ranked Florida. We also have number 19 Michigan, trying to stay alive in the Big 10 East , hosting number 14 Iowa. Finally, we have 4th ranked  Ohio State taking trying to stay hot against number 25 Michigan State.

 

Straight-up         23 - 4     85.2%

ATS                    10 - 17   37.0%

Overall

Straight-up         91 - 23   79.8%

ATS                    53 - 61   46.5%

Friday:

(18) UCF (4 - 1) (1 - 0) (-4.5) 31 @ Cincinnati (3 - 1) (0 - 0) 20: After a hiccup against Pittsburgh, UCF seems to be back on track. Ohio State overwhelmed Cincinnati earlier in the season and it’s likely UCF can inflict similar offensive damage on the Bearcats. The line here is rather slim but that’s probably because of UCF’s loss on the road. It could also be that Vegas knows something we don’t.

Saturday:

Utah State (3 - 1) 21 @ (5) LSU (4 - 0) (-26.0) 48: LSU’s offense is vastly improved over the past several years, but the defense isn’t. Utah State poses a reasonable challenge if the Tigers overlook them by peaking ahead to a big game with Florida next week. 

(6) Oklahoma (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-35.0) 54 @ Kansas (2 - 3) (0 - 2) 10: Kansas had a brief glimmer of hope in their win against Boston College, but they haven’t been able to sustain it against Big 12 opposition. TCU put up 51 on the Jayhawks, so it’s possible Oklahoma could do some more serious damage. 

Kent State (2 - 2) 6 @ (8) Wisconsin (4 - 0) (-37.0) 48: Wisconsin struggled last week against Northwestern after overwhelming its first three opponents. I believe the Badgers will return to form against overmatched Kent State.

Purdue (1 - 3) (0 - 1) 10 @ (12) Penn State (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-27.5) 41: Penn State is quietly operating under the radar, below Ohio State and Wisconsin in the Big Ten. They should easily be able to handle a Purdue team struggling to maintain competitiveness in the conference.

 

(14) Iowa (4 - 0) (1 - 0) 20 @ (19) Michigan (3 - 1) (1 - 1) (-5.0) 27: This is one of the most compelling games of the weekend. Michigan already has a lopsided loss to Wisconsin and can’t afford another one if they want to stay in the race for a Big Ten title. Head coach Jim Harbaugh is also on the hotseat and desperately needs this win. I think he’ll get it. 

(21) Oklahoma State (4 - 1) (1 - 1) (-9.5) 38 @ Texas Tech (2 - 2) (0 - 1) 24: The only blemish on Oklahoma State’s record is a six point loss at Texas. The Cowboys are still in the Big !2 regular season race that might not be decided until the final weekend when they take on Oklahoma. A win in Lubbock is essential if they want to keep those hopes alive. 

Maryland (2 - 2) (0 - 1)(-12.5)  41 @ Rutgers (1 - 3) (0 - 2) 20: After an impressive start to the season, Maryland is starting to look like, well, Maryland. A loss to Temple and a drubbing at home by Penn State have brought the Terps down to earth. Fortunately for them, they are playing one of the most hapless programs in the Power Five.

TCU (3 - 1) (1 - 0) 28 @ Iowa State (2 - 2) (0 -1) (-3.5) 24: Despite a surprising loss to SMU, TCU is still impressive on both sides of the ball. Notably, SMU is still undefeated and averaging 44 points a game. Iowa State has been a bit disappointing this season and I’m a bit baffled at them being a favorite in this game.

(7) Auburn (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-3.0) 30 @ (10) Florida (5 - 0) (2 - 0) 24: This is the premier game of the week with serious conference and national implications. I feel that Florida is overrated and Auburn is just the opposite. Florida’s signature win is a close one over a mediocre Miami team to start the season. Meanwhile, Auburn was defeating what we now know is a very good Oregon squad. Enough said.

Bowling Green (1 - 3) 9 @ (9) Notre Dame (3 - 1) (-45.5) 56: Notre Dame rebounded from a loss to Georgia by dominating Virginia last week. The only drama this week will be how long it takes for Notre Dame to get 40 points.

(11) Texas (3 - 1) (1 - 0) (-11.5) 30 @ West Virginia (3 - 1)(1 - 0) 21: West Virginia has performed better than expected and are always a tough out at home.  Texas will need to focus on the Mountaineers before thinking about their annual Red River Rivalry game next week or else they could end up in a tough position in the Big 12 race.

Va. Tech (2 - 2) (0 - 2) 24 @ Miami (2 - 2) (0 - 1) (-13.5) 34: The ACC, with the exception of Clemson, is experiencing a down season. At Miami, first year head coach Manny Diaz is realizing why Mark Richt decided to retire. Virginia Tech top man Justin Fuentes finds himself on the hot seat after a 44 - 10 drubbing at the hands of Duke. My prediction is that the Duke loss will look a lot better at the end of the season, but the Hokies still need to get things figured out in a hurry.

Baylor (4 - 0) (1 - 0) 27 @ Kansas State (3 - 1) (0 - 1) (-2.0) 24: Baylor is quietly putting together a solid season that includes last week’s close win over Iowa State. Kansas State’s resume is probably better, but they looked lackluster against Oklahoma State last week. I just don’t have a good feeling about the home team in this one. 

Illinois (2 - 2) (0 - 1) 17 @ Minnesota (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-14.0) 34: Minnesota is another one of those surprise teams in the Power Five and should be able to take care of Illinois, a solid team but unfortunately not up to the top teams in the Big 10.

North Carolina (2 - 3) (1 - 1) (-10.5) 37 @ Ga. Tech (1 - 3) (0 - 1) 24: North Carolina is coming off a near monumental upset of top-ranked Clemson and will need to shake that off against the weakest team in the ACC. I don’t expect the Yellow Jackets to be able to get their first conference win. 

Northwestern (1 - 3) (0 - 2) 21 @ Nebraska (3 - 2) (1 - 1) (-8.0) 27: As good as Northwestern looked against Wisconsin and as badly as Nebraska played against Ohio State last week, I still believe the ‘Huskers can prevail on Saturday. Northwestern’s offense is anemic and inconsistent while Nebraska has the potential to put up some points. 

Arizona (3 - 1) (1 - 0) 30 @ Colorado (3 - 1) (1 - 0) (-4.5) 27: I’ve been on the Arizona bandwagon this season and I don’t see any reason to get off of it now. I know Colorado has attracted some attention, but I like what head coach Kevin Sumlin is doing in Tucson, especially on defense as the season progresses. The Wildcats’ defense will need to play well to contain the Buffaloes.

(3) Georgia (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-24.5) 40 @ Tennessee (1 - 3) (0 - 1) 21: Georgia is continuing its run through a very difficult schedule, but this game should be a breather if Tennessee doesn’t miraculously transform into an SEC East contender. The Vols are decent against the run, giving up a little less than 150 yards a game and about 3.7 yards per carry. That’s still vulnerable enough to give Georgia a chance to run up big numbers on the ground.

(25) Michigan State (4 - 1) (2 - 0) 13 @ (4) Ohio State (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-20.5) 37: Ohio State has been overwhelming its opponents since the beginning of the season. If they’re going to have a rough home game, this could be it, but until they appear to be challenged I’ll stay with the Buckeyes.

Vanderbilt (1 - 3) (0 - 2) 20 @ Ole Miss (2 - 3) (1 - 1) (-7.0) 31: Ole Miss only has a couple of conference games they have a good chance of winning, and this is one of them. 

California  (4 - 1) (1 - 1) 10 @ (13) Oregon (3 - 1) (1 - 0) (-17.5) 30: Cal was ranked before last week despite scoring no more than 28 points in a game. Oregon can score that many in a quarter, so I’ll go with the Ducks to overwhelm Cal offensively.

Pittsburgh (3 - 2) (0 - 1) 24 @ Duke (3 - 1) (1 - 0) (-4.5) 38: Despite not having much of a home field advantage, Duke should be able to score on Pitt. The only team to put a loss on the Blue Devils has been Alabama, so I’m going to stay with Duke.

Oregon State (1 - 3) (0 - 1) 31 @ UCLA (1 - 4) (1 - 1) (-6.0) 34: UCLA had a dream fourth quarter against Washington State a couple of weeks ago, then gave Arizona a tough game in their last game. Chip Kelly has his team moving in the right direction and I like them to outscore the Beavers in a tough contest at home in the Rose Bowl.

(15) Washington (4 - 1) (1 - 1) (-14.5) 27 @ Stanford (2 - 3) (1 - 2) 17: Earlier in the season, this was expected to be a battle for the Pac-12 North title. Stanford has had injuries at quarterback and their defense just hasn’t been as good as we’ve seen in recent seasons. Washington has come back well from a close loss to Cal and they should continue to roll against the Cardinal.

 

(16) Boise State (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-14.5) 41 @ UNLV (1 - 3) (0 - 1) 21: Boise State has positioned themselves to contend for the New Year’s Day bid for the Group of Five. They have a couple of tough games left, but this isn’t one of them. UNLV gives up a lot of points and Boise should feast on a weak defense today.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com .  Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.