NFL WEEK 2 PICKS: THERE'S DESPERATION IN THE AIR

 

Week 1 was pretty good, but if Titans kicker Steven Gostkowski had made just one of the missed three field goals and an extra point, it would have been even better ATS. With no preseason and almost no fans in the stands, correctly picking 66.7%of the games is a good start to the 2020 season. To continue the success, perhaps it would be better to just use a dart board or flip a coin, but I’m just not that smart. Week 2 awaits with the 0-1 teams already in desperation mode, with only 11% of 0-2 teams going on to earn a playoff berth since 2002.

Straight up: 10-5 66.7%

Against the Spread (ATS): 10-5 66.7%

Atlanta (0-1) 21 @ Dallas (0-1) (-4.0) 27 (52.5): The Cowboys couldn’t find a way to win a game they probably should have last week at the Rams, continuing losses in close games that extends to last season. The Falcons got soundly beaten by the Seahawks at home and will be dealing with a small but hostile crowd, estimated to be around 20,000, in AT&T Stadium.

Buffalo (1-0) (-5.5) 24 @ Miami (0-1) (41.0) 16 : The Bills got off to a good start to the season with a 10-point win over the Jets while the Dolphins struggled offensively in a 21-11 loss to the Pats. If the Bills are going to challenge New England for the AFC East title, this is a game they need to win.

Carolina (0-1) 26 @ Tampa Bay (0-1) (-9.0) 33 (47.5): Tom Brady wasn’t sharp in his Buccaneer debut in New Orleans, despite playing in an empty Mercedes-Benz Superdome. He threw two interceptions, one for a Saints touchdown and will need to improve for the Bucs to contend for the playoffs. The Panthers gave the Raiders a good battle, giving up a go ahead touchdown in the last five minutes.

Denver (0-1) 20 @ Pittsburgh (1-0) (-7.5) 28 (41.0): After two years out of the playoffs, the Steelers got off to a good start against the Giants, but they’ll take a step up in class against a Broncos team that struggled offensively in a last second 16-14 loss to the Titans. Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was in decent form after returning from an elbow injury that caused him to miss almost all of last season.

Detroit (0-1) 21 @ Green Bay (1-0) (-6.0) 30 (49.0): The Packers are coming off an upset of the Minnesota Vikings, scoring the most points of any team in Week 1. A dropped pass inside the five yard line could have given the Lions a win over the Bears, but instead faces an early season must win situation in Green Bay.

Jacksonville (1-0) 16 @ Tennessee (1-0) (-9.0) 23 (43.0): Tennessee barely escaped Denver with a win last week after kicker Stephen Gostkoswski missed three field goals and an extra point before nailing a 25 yarder with 17 seconds left to secure the victory. They’ll need Gostkowski to find his form against a surprising Jaguars team that upset Colts last week behind quarterback Gardner Minshew.

 

Los Angeles Rams (1-0) 26 @ Philadelphia (0-1) (-1.0) 24 (46.0): The Eagles are probably still reeling from watching an early 17-0 lead disappear in an ugly 27-17 loss to Washington. On the other coast, the Rams held off Dallas to win 20-17 in an attempt to return to their Super Bowl form of 2019. The Redskins were able to get to Philadelphia quarterback Carson Wentz, something the Eagles will need to fix if they hope to avoid starting 0-2.

Minnesota (0-1) 27 @ Indianapolis (0-1) (-3.0) 24 (48.5): Neither of these teams had a good start to the season as they suffered big defeats to division foes. The Vikings gave up 43 points to the Packers last week and will need to play better against Phillip Rivers and the Colts.

New York Giants (0-1) 20 @ Chicago (1-0) 27 (-5.5) (42.0): The Bears escaped Detroit with a big divisional win and is looking to continue the good play at home. They gave up a lot of yards, but limited the damage while the Giants never really got their offense going against the Steelers.

San Francisco (0-1) (-7.0) 30 @ New York Jets (0-1) (42.0): The 49ers are one of only three road favorites this week, coming off a tough 24-20 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. They’ll need to get past the Jets as it appears Arizona might turn the NFC West into a four team race. After a double digit loss to the Bills, the Jets still don’t look like anything close to a playoff team.

Washington (1-0) 20 @ Arizona (1-0) (-6.5) 24 (48.0): Both of these teams pulled off surprising upsets last week against divisional rivals. Washington’s defense stiffened in the last three quarters against the Eagles and Cards quarterback Kyler Murray will be a stern test, as he was able to erase a ten-point deficit. Murray and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins lit up the Niners secondary for 150 yards on 14 catches.

Baltimore Ravens (1-0) (-7.0) 31 @ Houston (0-1) 20 (51.5): Someone in the NFL front office must have something against the Texans as they’ve had to open the season with consecutive games against the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs and last year’s best regular season performer. Houston lost last week’s game 34 – 20 and they should expect more of the same in Week 2.

Kansas City (1-0) (-9.0) 27 Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) 24 (47.5): The Chiefs successfully began defense of their title while the Chargers headed east and came away from Cincinnati with a close victory. I just have a gut feeling that Tyrod Taylor and the Chargers will give Kansas City a tougher battle than most people think.

New England (1-0) 24 @ Seattle (1-0) 28 (-3.5) (45.0): Week 2 comes to a close with the Patriots making one of the longest road trips in the NFL. Seattle made a similar journey last week and came out of Atlanta with an opening game win. The Pats Cam Newton will have to pull off some heroics for his team to add some joy to the long flight back to Boston.

New Orleans (1-0) (-6.0) 28 @ Las Vegas (1-0) 30 (49.0): The Saints struggled on offense last week and the Raiders are coming off a road win at Carolina. This should have been quite an event for Monday Night Football, with the first ever NFL game being played in Las Vegas, place prior commissioners of league deemed as off limits. Leave it to the Raiders to break that claim, but the game will be played in a brand new stadium without fans. Look for the home team, if they can limit their turnovers, to hand the road favorites a tough loss.

The latest novel in the PK Frazier series is now available. "Unplayable Lie", as well as the first three installments, can be found at PK Frazier novels

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK SEVEN PREDICTIONS

Last Week:

 

Straight Up:        18 - 8       69.2%

ATS:                    18- 8       69.2%

Overall:

Straight Up:        109 - 31    77.8%

ATS:                    71 - 69     50.7%

Thursday:

Syracuse (3 - 2) (0 - 1) 24 @ NC State (3 - 2) (0 - 1) (4.5) 30: The ACC is difficult to predict because almost all of the teams are inconsistent, mediocre or just plain bad. These two teams qualify as the first two. I’ll take NC State, but only because they’re at home.

Friday:

(20) Virginia (4 - 1) (2 - 0) 31 @ Miami (2 - 3) (0 - 2) (-2.0) 23: Miami gets their second team from the Commonwealth of Virginia at home in as many weeks. The ‘Canes should have completed the big comeback against Virginia Tech, but fell just short. They’ll need at least as good an effort this week to stay on the field with the Cavs.

Colorado (3 - 2) (1 - 1) 17 @ (13) Oregon (4 - 1) (2 - 0) (-21.0) 37: Suddenly, Oregon is clearly the class of the Pac-12 North. Colorado still has a shot at the South, but will need a big effort in Eugene to keep their division title hopes alive.

Saturday:

South Carolina (2 - 3) (1 - 2) 13 @ Georgia  (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-24.5) 41: Georgia is easing into the meat of their schedule against a decent South Carolina team, but the Gamecocks can’t hang with the Bulldogs. South Carolina’s rushing defense is decent, but it’s not elite enough to contain Georgia’s 250 yards/game attack.

(6) Oklahoma (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-10.5) 38 vs. (11) Texas (4 - 1) (2 - 0) 20 (Dallas, TX): Texas took down Oklahoma a year ago, but that was before the Sooners corralled Jalen Hurts at QB and beefed up their defense. This is one of the most intense rivalries in college football, so sometimes the records don’t matter. Oklahoma leads the nation in total yards and just has too much for almost everyone on their schedule, including Texas.

(16) Michigan (4 - 1) (2 - 1) (-19.0) 30 @ Illinois (2 - 3) (0 - 2) 6: Michigan in still struggling on offense against good defenses, but Illinois doesn’t fall into that category.

(23) Memphis (5 - 0) (1 - 0) (-4.0) 27 @ Temple (4 - 1) 24: Memphis has quietly moved into contention for the Group of Five New Year’s Day bowl bid with a balanced offensive attack. Temple surprised Maryland earlier in the season and have a top 20 defense. I’ll stay with Memphis to utilize their balance to win a close one in Philadelphia.

Maryland (3 - 2) (1 - 1) (-6.5)38 @ Purdue (1 - 4) (0 - 2) 17: Purdue has struggled mightily this season while Maryland has been wildly inconsistent. The Boilermakers are outside of the top 100 in both offense and defense, making it difficult for me to see Purdue stopping Maryland or outscoring them.

Mississippi State (3 - 2) (1 - 1) (-6.5) 34 @ Tennessee (1 - 4) (0 -2) 24: Tennessee is having a nightmare of a season and it’s not likely to get any better this week. The Vols are giving up over 165 yards a game and Mississippi State is rushing for over 200 yards a game. That’s not a good matchup for Tennessee.

Rutgers (1 - 4) (0 - 3) 6 @ Indiana (3 -2)(0 -2) (-28.0) 40: The Big 10 is a deep league, but the depth finder stops before it gets to Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have lost 15 of their last 16 games. It will be 16 of 17 after this weekend.

Ga. Tech (1 - 4) (0 - 2) 17 @ Duke (3 - 2) (1 - 1) (-17.0)  38: Duke came back down to earth last week against Pittsburgh after a big win at Va. Tech. Georgia Tech won’t pose the same kind of threat and I look for Duke to regain their offensive firepower.         

(1) Alabama (5 - 0) (2 - 0)(-16.5) 31 @ (24) Texas A&M (3 - 2) (1 - 1) 13: Before the season started, I had this one identified as a game in which Alabama would be challenged. But the Aggies haven’t shown enough offense against Power Five teams for me to think they can be considered a threat against the Tide. Alabama is a bit vulnerable against run, but Texas A&M is only ranked 97th in rushing offense.

Florida State (3 - 2) (2 - 1) 20 @ (2) Clemson (5 - 0) (3 - 0) (-27.5) 31: It wasn’t that long ago that this was one of the premier games of the season, with the winner getting the upper hand not just in the ACC, but nationally. Even though Florida State is showing some improvement with wins over Louisville and NC State, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney had a bye week to correct any issues that resulted in a near loss to UNC in their last game. I like Clemson to win, but not cover.

Michigan State (4 - 2) (2 - 1) 10 @ (8) Wisconsin (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-10.0) 24: With the way Wisconsin has been playing defense, it’s difficult for me to see how a weak offensive Michigan State team can score enough points to top the Badgers.

Washington State (3 - 2) (1 - 2) 24 @ (18) Arizona State (4 - 1) (1 - 1) (-2.5) 28: I’ve been on the Sun Devil bandwagon all season and Washington State just got rid of their defensive coordinator. I’ll stick with Arizona State to take advantage of the Cougars’ disarray.

Texas Tech (3 - 2) (1 - 1) 24 @ (22) Baylor (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-9.0) 34: Baylor is one of the secrets of this season and they’re coming off a big road win against Kansas State. The Bears are in the top 30 in the FBS in both offense and defense and should be able to hold off Texas Tech.

Iowa  State (3 - 2) (1 - 1) (-10.5) 37 @ West Va. (3 - 2) (1 - 1) 24: Iowa State has scored 63% of its points in just 40% of its games, so it’s difficult to predict which offense will show up in Morgantown. West Virginia is ranked 61st in total defense, so this is probably a good chance for the Cyclones to build on their 49 - 24 drubbing of TCU last week.

Rhode Island (1 - 4) 14@ Va. Tech (3 - 2) (-25.5) 41: The Hokies withstood a big comeback by Miami to record their first ACC win of the season and now face a bad FCS team. They should be able to build some much needed confidence at home.

Ole Miss (3 - 3) (2 - 1) 21 @ Missouri (4 - 1) (1 - 0) (-11.0) 34: Missouri has quietly been on a roll since an opening loss to a Wyoming team that still has only one loss. I doubt they can hang with Georgia and Florida in the SEC East, but they should be able to handle the Rebels.

USC (3 - 2) 24 @ (9) Notre Dame (4 - 1) (-11.0) 30: I’ve liked USC’s speed all season, but Notre Dame is playing well on both sides of the ball. This is a big rivalry game and I’ll take the Irish to prevail and stay in the playoff conversation.

(10) Penn State (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-4.5) 24 @ (17) Iowa (4 - 1) (1 - 1) 17: Penn State is fourth in total defense and 11th in total offense while Iowa is fifth in defense, but barely in the top 60 in offense. This is likely to be a low scoring affair, but Penn State has more firepower and I like them to stay in the Big 10 East race.

Louisville (3 - 2) (1 - 1) 27 @ Wake Forest (5 - 0) (1 - 0) (-7.0) 31: These defenses are virtually statistically identical, but Wake Forest is top ten in total offense so I give them the edge in what should be a close and entertaining game.

Nebraska (4 - 2) (2 - 1) 31 @ Minnesota (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-7.5) 29: Minnesota is another one of those undefeated Power Five teams like Baylor and Wake Forest that can make a statement with a big win as they get into the meat of their conference schedules. They haven’t been dominant and will take a step up in class against Nebraska. I like the ‘Huskers to get their offense rolling in a mild upset.

Arkansas (2 - 3) (0 - 2) 27 @ Kentucky (2 - 3) (0 - 3) (-7.0) 24: Arkansas finally made a nice showing against Texas A&M and I look for them to have a good chance to pick up a road conference win. Kentucky played Florida close, but hasn’t been able to duplicate that effort the last couple of games.

(7) Florida (6 - 0) (3 - 0) 27 @ (5) LSU (5 - 0) (1 - 0) (-13.5) 30:  Florida has found a way to win close games and they’ll once again need to be opportunistic to be able to slow down the second ranked passing defense in the country. That’s not unreasonable, as the Gators are giving up less than 200 yards a game through the air. The bigger problem for Florida is if they end up in a shootout, as their offense isn’t explosive enough to stay with LSU.

(15) Utah (4 - 1) (1 - 1) (-14.0) 31 @ Oregon State (2 - 3) (1 - 1) 13: Oregon State is very dangerous offensively, but with the exception of USC, Utah’s 14th rated defense has been able to hold some good offenses in check. In this case, it isn’t a great matchup for Oregon State, as they’re balance offense relies on a strong running game. Utah is giving up less than 60 yards a game on the ground.

Hawaii (4 - 1) (1 - 0) 21@ (14) Boise State (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-12.5) 30: These two teams are very close offensively, although Hawaii scores about five points more per game. The Rainbow Warriors have had a week off to prepare for the frontrunner in the New Year’s Day Six sweepstakes. The difference is the Boise State defense, which should be able to contain Hawaii.

Washington (4 - 2) (1 - 2) (-9.5)30 @ Arizona (4 - 1) (3 - 0) 37: I’ve been a big Arizona fan all season and they haven’t lost since an opening upset at the hands of Hawaii in the islands. Washington has been inconsistent and Arizona is averaging over 500 yards a game, especially when quarterback sensation Khalil Tate is on the field.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com .  Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.