COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK SIX PREDICTIONS

I bounced back nicely from a dismal week 4 to go 23 - 4 in week 5. This week there are some tight games as conference play gets into full swing. The headliner has number 7 Auburn heading into the Swamp to take on 10th ranked Florida. We also have number 19 Michigan, trying to stay alive in the Big 10 East , hosting number 14 Iowa. Finally, we have 4th ranked  Ohio State taking trying to stay hot against number 25 Michigan State.

 

Straight-up         23 - 4     85.2%

ATS                    10 - 17   37.0%

Overall

Straight-up         91 - 23   79.8%

ATS                    53 - 61   46.5%

Friday:

(18) UCF (4 - 1) (1 - 0) (-4.5) 31 @ Cincinnati (3 - 1) (0 - 0) 20: After a hiccup against Pittsburgh, UCF seems to be back on track. Ohio State overwhelmed Cincinnati earlier in the season and it’s likely UCF can inflict similar offensive damage on the Bearcats. The line here is rather slim but that’s probably because of UCF’s loss on the road. It could also be that Vegas knows something we don’t.

Saturday:

Utah State (3 - 1) 21 @ (5) LSU (4 - 0) (-26.0) 48: LSU’s offense is vastly improved over the past several years, but the defense isn’t. Utah State poses a reasonable challenge if the Tigers overlook them by peaking ahead to a big game with Florida next week. 

(6) Oklahoma (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-35.0) 54 @ Kansas (2 - 3) (0 - 2) 10: Kansas had a brief glimmer of hope in their win against Boston College, but they haven’t been able to sustain it against Big 12 opposition. TCU put up 51 on the Jayhawks, so it’s possible Oklahoma could do some more serious damage. 

Kent State (2 - 2) 6 @ (8) Wisconsin (4 - 0) (-37.0) 48: Wisconsin struggled last week against Northwestern after overwhelming its first three opponents. I believe the Badgers will return to form against overmatched Kent State.

Purdue (1 - 3) (0 - 1) 10 @ (12) Penn State (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-27.5) 41: Penn State is quietly operating under the radar, below Ohio State and Wisconsin in the Big Ten. They should easily be able to handle a Purdue team struggling to maintain competitiveness in the conference.

 

(14) Iowa (4 - 0) (1 - 0) 20 @ (19) Michigan (3 - 1) (1 - 1) (-5.0) 27: This is one of the most compelling games of the weekend. Michigan already has a lopsided loss to Wisconsin and can’t afford another one if they want to stay in the race for a Big Ten title. Head coach Jim Harbaugh is also on the hotseat and desperately needs this win. I think he’ll get it. 

(21) Oklahoma State (4 - 1) (1 - 1) (-9.5) 38 @ Texas Tech (2 - 2) (0 - 1) 24: The only blemish on Oklahoma State’s record is a six point loss at Texas. The Cowboys are still in the Big !2 regular season race that might not be decided until the final weekend when they take on Oklahoma. A win in Lubbock is essential if they want to keep those hopes alive. 

Maryland (2 - 2) (0 - 1)(-12.5)  41 @ Rutgers (1 - 3) (0 - 2) 20: After an impressive start to the season, Maryland is starting to look like, well, Maryland. A loss to Temple and a drubbing at home by Penn State have brought the Terps down to earth. Fortunately for them, they are playing one of the most hapless programs in the Power Five.

TCU (3 - 1) (1 - 0) 28 @ Iowa State (2 - 2) (0 -1) (-3.5) 24: Despite a surprising loss to SMU, TCU is still impressive on both sides of the ball. Notably, SMU is still undefeated and averaging 44 points a game. Iowa State has been a bit disappointing this season and I’m a bit baffled at them being a favorite in this game.

(7) Auburn (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-3.0) 30 @ (10) Florida (5 - 0) (2 - 0) 24: This is the premier game of the week with serious conference and national implications. I feel that Florida is overrated and Auburn is just the opposite. Florida’s signature win is a close one over a mediocre Miami team to start the season. Meanwhile, Auburn was defeating what we now know is a very good Oregon squad. Enough said.

Bowling Green (1 - 3) 9 @ (9) Notre Dame (3 - 1) (-45.5) 56: Notre Dame rebounded from a loss to Georgia by dominating Virginia last week. The only drama this week will be how long it takes for Notre Dame to get 40 points.

(11) Texas (3 - 1) (1 - 0) (-11.5) 30 @ West Virginia (3 - 1)(1 - 0) 21: West Virginia has performed better than expected and are always a tough out at home.  Texas will need to focus on the Mountaineers before thinking about their annual Red River Rivalry game next week or else they could end up in a tough position in the Big 12 race.

Va. Tech (2 - 2) (0 - 2) 24 @ Miami (2 - 2) (0 - 1) (-13.5) 34: The ACC, with the exception of Clemson, is experiencing a down season. At Miami, first year head coach Manny Diaz is realizing why Mark Richt decided to retire. Virginia Tech top man Justin Fuentes finds himself on the hot seat after a 44 - 10 drubbing at the hands of Duke. My prediction is that the Duke loss will look a lot better at the end of the season, but the Hokies still need to get things figured out in a hurry.

Baylor (4 - 0) (1 - 0) 27 @ Kansas State (3 - 1) (0 - 1) (-2.0) 24: Baylor is quietly putting together a solid season that includes last week’s close win over Iowa State. Kansas State’s resume is probably better, but they looked lackluster against Oklahoma State last week. I just don’t have a good feeling about the home team in this one. 

Illinois (2 - 2) (0 - 1) 17 @ Minnesota (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-14.0) 34: Minnesota is another one of those surprise teams in the Power Five and should be able to take care of Illinois, a solid team but unfortunately not up to the top teams in the Big 10.

North Carolina (2 - 3) (1 - 1) (-10.5) 37 @ Ga. Tech (1 - 3) (0 - 1) 24: North Carolina is coming off a near monumental upset of top-ranked Clemson and will need to shake that off against the weakest team in the ACC. I don’t expect the Yellow Jackets to be able to get their first conference win. 

Northwestern (1 - 3) (0 - 2) 21 @ Nebraska (3 - 2) (1 - 1) (-8.0) 27: As good as Northwestern looked against Wisconsin and as badly as Nebraska played against Ohio State last week, I still believe the ‘Huskers can prevail on Saturday. Northwestern’s offense is anemic and inconsistent while Nebraska has the potential to put up some points. 

Arizona (3 - 1) (1 - 0) 30 @ Colorado (3 - 1) (1 - 0) (-4.5) 27: I’ve been on the Arizona bandwagon this season and I don’t see any reason to get off of it now. I know Colorado has attracted some attention, but I like what head coach Kevin Sumlin is doing in Tucson, especially on defense as the season progresses. The Wildcats’ defense will need to play well to contain the Buffaloes.

(3) Georgia (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-24.5) 40 @ Tennessee (1 - 3) (0 - 1) 21: Georgia is continuing its run through a very difficult schedule, but this game should be a breather if Tennessee doesn’t miraculously transform into an SEC East contender. The Vols are decent against the run, giving up a little less than 150 yards a game and about 3.7 yards per carry. That’s still vulnerable enough to give Georgia a chance to run up big numbers on the ground.

(25) Michigan State (4 - 1) (2 - 0) 13 @ (4) Ohio State (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-20.5) 37: Ohio State has been overwhelming its opponents since the beginning of the season. If they’re going to have a rough home game, this could be it, but until they appear to be challenged I’ll stay with the Buckeyes.

Vanderbilt (1 - 3) (0 - 2) 20 @ Ole Miss (2 - 3) (1 - 1) (-7.0) 31: Ole Miss only has a couple of conference games they have a good chance of winning, and this is one of them. 

California  (4 - 1) (1 - 1) 10 @ (13) Oregon (3 - 1) (1 - 0) (-17.5) 30: Cal was ranked before last week despite scoring no more than 28 points in a game. Oregon can score that many in a quarter, so I’ll go with the Ducks to overwhelm Cal offensively.

Pittsburgh (3 - 2) (0 - 1) 24 @ Duke (3 - 1) (1 - 0) (-4.5) 38: Despite not having much of a home field advantage, Duke should be able to score on Pitt. The only team to put a loss on the Blue Devils has been Alabama, so I’m going to stay with Duke.

Oregon State (1 - 3) (0 - 1) 31 @ UCLA (1 - 4) (1 - 1) (-6.0) 34: UCLA had a dream fourth quarter against Washington State a couple of weeks ago, then gave Arizona a tough game in their last game. Chip Kelly has his team moving in the right direction and I like them to outscore the Beavers in a tough contest at home in the Rose Bowl.

(15) Washington (4 - 1) (1 - 1) (-14.5) 27 @ Stanford (2 - 3) (1 - 2) 17: Earlier in the season, this was expected to be a battle for the Pac-12 North title. Stanford has had injuries at quarterback and their defense just hasn’t been as good as we’ve seen in recent seasons. Washington has come back well from a close loss to Cal and they should continue to roll against the Cardinal.

 

(16) Boise State (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-14.5) 41 @ UNLV (1 - 3) (0 - 1) 21: Boise State has positioned themselves to contend for the New Year’s Day bid for the Group of Five. They have a couple of tough games left, but this isn’t one of them. UNLV gives up a lot of points and Boise should feast on a weak defense today.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com .  Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.