COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK THREE PREDICTIONS

Last Week:

Straight-up                         24 - 5     82.7%

Against the Spread             12 - 17   41.3%

Not a bad week for the straight picks, but not so great against the spread. Of course, that’s only significant if you’re betting, which currently I am not. There are no ranked team matchups this week but there are some other interesting games on the slate.  

Friday (from an earlier post):

(20) Washington State (2 - 0) (-8.5) 38 @ Houston (1 - 1) 28: Houston’s early season schedule was an ambitious bid to bring some increased credibility to the Group of Five teams and conferences. Their first attempt was at Oklahoma and were clearly outclassed, although the Cougars played valiantly in defeat. Washington State has put up 117 points against weak competition, but their strength doesn’t bode well for Houston.

Kansas (1 - 1) 17 @ Boston College (2 - 0) (-21.0) 40: New head coach Les Miles has quite a job to rebuild Kansas, and it won’t get much easier in Boston. Last week’s loss to Coastal Carolina illustrates how far Les has to go. 

Saturday:

Arkansas State ((1 - 1) 20 @ (3) Georgia (2 - 0) (-33.0) 41: It would have been nice for Georgia to schedule a tougher opponent in the first three weeks, but we’ll find out next week how good they really are when they take on Notre Dame. But this week, the Bulldogs better pay attention to a team that can put up some big numbers. 

(6) Ohio State (2 - 0) (-15.5) 37 @ Indiana (2 - 0) 14: I wasn’t sold on the Buckeyes before the season, but they have barely missed a beat following the retirement of former head coach Urban Meyer, as evidenced by the way they dismantled a pretty good Cincinnati ream. Ryan Day has Ohio State playing at a high level and I don’t expect Indiana to pull the kind of upset that Purdue did last season. 

Pittsburgh (1 - 1) 20 @ (13) Penn State (2 - 0) (-17.0) 31: The ACC is hopelessly bad this season and could use s big win to help reverse the slide. Despite the rivalry fervor, Pitt isn’t close to Penn State in talent, although they are the best team that the Nittany Lions have played so far this season. I still think Penn State is overrated and this game will give me some more data to see if I’m on track with that. 

(21) Maryland (2 - 0) (-8.0) 42 @ Temple (1 - 0) 27: Maryland has been an offensive juggernaut to start the season. Temple put up 56 on FCS Bucknell that was 1 - 10 a year ago, so I’ll stay with the Terrapins. I’m surprised with the line in this game, which was most likely influenced by Temple’s margin of victory in their first game. Maryland is a big step up in class for the Owls. 

New Mexico (1 -- 0) 17 @ (7) Notre Dame (1 - 0) (-35.0) 49: Notre Dame has had a couple of weeks to figure out what happened defensively against Louisville. New Mexico probably won’t present too much of a challenge, one of the few breathers in an otherwise difficult schedule. Covering a five-touchdown spread is a different challenge.

(2) Alabama (2 - 0) (-25.5) 37 @ South Carolina (1 - 1) 17: This is Alabama’s first big-boy test of the season. South Carolina let North Carolina steal a win in week one, then pounded Charleston Southern last week. Alabama has looked just as strong and efficient as expected against Duke and New Mexico State. I’m not smelling upset here, but the Gamecocks might make it closer than many expect.

Stanford (1 - 1) 20 @ (17) UCF (2 - 0) (-6.5) 30: This will be a good test for UCF, although Stanford got exposed last week against USC. The Cardinal should have their starting quarterback in the lineup, unlike the last game and a half. Traditionally, west coast teams don’t travel east very well, so I’ll stick with the favorite here.

USC (2 - 0) (-4.0) 31 @ BYU (1 - 1) 24: It appears that USC won’t miss a beat after losing starting quarterback J. T. Daniels. True freshman Kedon Slovis looked terrific against Stanford and expect USC’s team speed to overwhelm BYU.

Arizona State (2 - 0) 24 @ (18) Michigan State (2 - 0) (-13.5) 23: I just have a feeling about this one. I know I just mentioned the difficulty west coast teams have in the east, but I like Arizona State’s defense. This is based pretty  much on a hunch, but I’m going with the Sun Devils in what would be a big win for the Pac-12.

(19) Iowa (2 - 0)(-2.0) 27 @ Iowa State (1 - 0) 13: Iowa State has been winning close games and Iowa has been winning because of a traditionally stifling defense. The Cyclones have only played a single game, one which they were lucky to pull out in overtime against middling FCS foe Northern Iowa. The line on this game is tighter than I think it should be, but it’s most likely based on the rivalry and the hangover buzz from last year’s Iowa State team.

Idaho State (1 - 0) 6 @ (11) Utah (2 - 0) (-36.5) 45: This shouldn’t be much of a problem for the Utes. Covering the big spread could be a stretch, but I like them to overwhelm Idaho State.

Kent State (1 - 0) 6 @ (8) Auburn (2 - 0) (-35.0) 42: Auburn has had slow starts in its first two games, so I think coach Gux Malzahn will be looking to make a statement against overmatched Kent State.

(9) Florida (2 - 0) (-8.5) 27 @ Kentucky (2  - 0) 24: Neither of these teams has been particularly impressive. Kentucky appears to be playing for a MAC title, with wins over Toledo and Eastern Michigan. Florida defeated Miami, Fla. in its first game, but the Hurricanes have since lost to UNC to take some luster off that win. I’m tempted to take Kentucky, but I’ll stick with Florida to pull out a squeaker.

Lamar (1 - 0 - 1) 10 @ (17) Texas A&M (1 - 1) (-43.5) 48: Texas A&M struggled last week against number one Clemson after beating hapless Texas State in week one. Lamar was in the FCS playoffs last season so they won’t be a pushover. I don’t see the Aggies covering the spread here.

(1) Clemson (2 - 0) (-27.5) 38 @ Syracuse (1 - 1) 10: The last time Clemson lost a regular season game was two years ago to Syracuse. Can the Orange catch lightning in a bottle again? Given the way Syracuse was thumped by Maryland last week, I seriously doubt it. Clemson just has too much this time around.

Northwestern State (0 -2) 6 @ (4) LSU (2 - 0) (-51.0) 59: LSU showed last week that they may have finally found the offensive firepower to go with a solid defense. Northwestern State won’t offer much resistance.

Hawaii (2 - 0) 27 @ (23) Washington (1 - 1) (-21.5) 38: Hawaii is already 2 - 0 against the Pac-12 so far this season, but neither Arizona nor Oregon State is quite in the same class as Washington. The Huskies are coming off a tough loss to Cal that struck a blow to their title hopes. Hawaii will have to play better defense to have a chance in this one.

Florida State (1 - 1) 20 @ (25) Virginia (2 - 0) (-7.5) 30: Florida State’s head coach Willie Taggert is on a very hot seat after losing four of five games down the stretch last season and opening this year with an ugly comeback loss to Boise State and an overtime win by one point over La.- Monroe. Virginia is now the favorite to win the ACC Coastal and is poised to make a statement this weekend.

(5) Oklahoma (2 - 0) (-22.5) 37 @ UCLA (0 - 2) 13: UCLA has lost to two Group of Five teams to open the season, and now they have to really step up in class as they welcome Oklahoma to the Rose Bowl. The Sooners have looked outstanding on offense with Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts leading the way for a very speedy and talented offense. The defense also has a lot of speed and may be the reason Oklahoma contends for the national title.

(12) Texas (1 - 1) (-30.5) 51 @ Rice (0 - 2) 17: Texas will be looking to take out some frustration on Rice after giving up 45 point to LSU last week. Rice has little resistance to offer.

Portland State (1 - 1) 13 @ (22) Boise State (2 - 0) (-31.5) 31: Boise has scored a couple of close wins over Florida State and Marshall. They need to keep focused on FCS Portland State who I saw in person give Arkansas fits in week one. despite giving up a ton of points last season, Portland State has improved dramatically on defense. This one might be a lot closer than the oddsmakers have predicted.

Montana (2 - 0) 17 @ (15) Oregon (1 - 1) (-36.0) 56: Montana has dominated against their first two FCS opponents, but heading into Autzen Stadium on a Saturday night is an entirely different matter. Oregon lit up Nevada for 77 last week, so Montana might have a long day on defense.

N.C. State (2 - 0) (-7.0) 34 @ West Virginia (1 - 1) 17: West Virginia is struggling after the departure of head coach Dan Holgorsen.  They’ll be taking on a team that I think might be the most underrated in the ACC. Now that’s not saying much, since the ACC is so down this season.

Furman (1 - 1) 13 @ Va. Tech (1 - 1) (-21.5) 30: Furman is a solid FCS team with nothing to lose as they head into Lane Stadium. The Hokies are still struggling on offense and have an off week following this game as they prepare for the bulk of their ACC schedule. I look for Va. Tech to sputter, but still pull out a victory.

Kansas State (2 - 0) 31 @ Mississippi State (2 - 0) (-8.0) 27: Kansas State is averaging over 50 points a game, but that wasn’t against an SEC defense. But the positive is that Mississippi State’s defense doesn’t resemble an SEC caliber unit so far this season. I like the Wildcats in a big upset in Chris Klieman’s first season at Kansas State after building an FCS dynasty at North Dakota State.

TCU (1 - 0) (-2.0) 27 @ Purdue (1 - 1) 24: Purdue is on the upswing, but the difference in this one could be the TCU defense. I don’t believe Purdue will be able to put up six TD’s on the Horned Frogs like they did against Vanderbilt.

Texas Tech (2 - 0)(-2.0)34 @ Arizona (1 - 1) 37 : Arizona succumbed to a spread offense team in Hawaii in their first game, but I don’t think Texas Tech is hitting on all cylinders yet. I’ll take the home team in a mild upset.

Colorado State (1 - 1) 21 @ Arkansas (1 - 1) (-10.0) 27: Arkansas continues to have difficulty with Chad Morris’ offense. Mistakes and penalties hurt them against Ole Miss last week and that will need to improve if the Hogs are to avenge last season’s tough loss to the Rams.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com .  Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.