"Roughing the Passer - A PK Frazier Novel"

My new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" is the follow-up to "Illegal Procedure" and "Roughing the Passer" and is now available in print and in e-formats at amazon.com, smashwords.com and iBooks. Follow me on twitter @kevinkrest.

Sunday, October 20, 2013

WEEK 7 NFL PICKS

Last week: 9 - 5
Overall:  56 - 35

Tampa Bay (0-5) 20 @ Atlanta (1-4) 27:  Who would have though these teams would only have one win between them at this point in the season? The Falcons have injury issues on offense and the Bucs are just a mess after releasing QB Josh Freeman.

Cincinnati (4-2) 20 @ Detroit (4-2) 24: This is a terrific match up, with the defense of the Bengals going against the varied offense of the Lions. Reggie Bush could have a huge impact in this game.

Buffalo (2-4)  17 @ Miami (3-2) 23: The Dolphins have stumbled a bit after a good start, but should be able to handle the Bills at home.  Buffalo's strength is its running game, while Miami is very good against the run. Not a great combination for the Bills.

New England (5-1)  17 @ New York Jets (3-3) 20: After the Pats' miracle win against the Saints last week, they may have TE Rob Gronkowski available for today's game. The Jets had a good chance to win the first meeting between these two teams and I think their lack of offensive weapons will catch up with New England today.

Dallas (3-3) 27 @ Philadelphia (3-3) 31: I'm not sure what to think of the Cowboys, and I'm not alone. They are very talented but terribly inconsistent. Without DE DeMarcus Ware on defense, Dallas will have difficulty against the league's second most potent offense. And missing DeMarco Murray on offense will hurt their chances of keeping pace on the scoreboard.  

Chicago (4-2) 24 @ Washington (1-4) 27: RGIII has shown signs of getting back to 100%, running more and throwing better. The Redskin defense is still very suspect, especially the secondary, but they did a good job of stopping the Cowboys last week. Special teams, a Bears' strongpoint, let the 'Skins down against Dallas and they'll need to play better to win this one.

St. Louis (3-3) 17 @ Carolina (2-3) 21: The Rams have made some improvement, benefitting from a favorable schedule. The Panthers have a couple of close losses and smacked the Vikings around last week. Cam Newton has been inconsistent for Carolina, but I think they'll get it done in a close one.

San Diego  27 (3-3) @ Jacksonville (0-6) 17: Some analysts think the Chargers are vulnerable, going east on a short week with the off time of a bye looming. Add to that the fact that San Diego has yet to win back-to-back games, following each win with a loss. This is a tossup for me, but I'm going against all of the trends and picking the Chargers against the worst team in the league.

San Francisco (4-2) 30 @ Tennessee (3-3)  24: The Titans have lost two straight, but to teams with a combined 12 - 1 record.  But the physical toll of those games against Kansas City and Seattle may be too much with the 'Niners, another physical team, coming to town. In addition, San Francisco seems to be hitting its stride after early season difficulties.

Cleveland (3-3) 17 @ Green Bay (3-2) 27 : The Browns have become a factor in the AFC North since trading RB Trent Richardson. The Packers' defense is playing at a high level and should be the difference in this game.


Houston (2-4)  16 @ Kansas City (6-0) 27: The Texans are starting second year third stringer at QB against the most ferocious pass rush in the league. Add the Chiefs' crowd noise and you have a recipe for disaster for Houston, although Case Keenum is a little bit of an unknown.

Baltimore (3-3) 20 @ Pittsburgh (1-4) 23: The Steelers seem to be getting things together as they host arch rival Baltimore at Heinz Field, but there's really no reason to pick Pittsburgh to win this game. The home team seems to have a decided advantage in this series, so I'll stick with that as a reason.

Denver (6-0) 34 @ Indianapolis (4-2) 27: Peyton Manning returns to Indy to take on his successor, Andrew Luck amid controversy, much of it caused by Twitter comments of Colts' owner Jim Irsay.  Manning has been predictably silent and will probably do his talking on the field, the very one he was responsible for building.


Minnesota (1-4) 31 @ New York Giants (0-6) 27: Meanwhile, Peyton's brother Eli is suffering through a miserable start to the season. The Giants are not historically a strong home team, while the Vikings will be breaking in new QB Josh Freeman. Except for last week's loss to the Panthers, Minnesota has been in every game they've played. New York has a lot of problems and trying to get their first win is one of them. It will probably continue to next week.