"Roughing the Passer - A PK Frazier Novel"

My new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" is the follow-up to "Illegal Procedure" and "Roughing the Passer" and is now available in print and in e-formats at amazon.com, smashwords.com and iBooks. Follow me on twitter @kevinkrest.

Saturday, October 1, 2016

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK FIVE SATURDAY PICKS

Last Week:    21 - 11   65.6%
Overall         106 - 22  82.8%

I took a lot of chances last week and it definitely hurt. Hopefully I can return to form as conference play revs up in earnest.

(23) Florida (3 - 1) 24 @ Vanderbilt (2 - 2) 16: The Gators lost an important game to Tennessee last week, but they remain one of the contenders for the SEC East. They'll need to stay focused for another game in the Volunteer state to stay alive in the race.

(13) Baylor (4 - 0) 37 @ Iowa St. (1 - 3) 17: The Cyclones really can't compete with the top teams in the Big 12. They've pulled some stunners over the years, but not this time.

Alcorn State (1 - 2) 13 @ (20) Arkansas (3 - 1) 34: The Razorbacks had a disappointing loss to Texas A&M last week, but FCS Alcorn State should be able to give them a good chance to bounce back before hosting Alabama next week.

(22) Texas (2 - 1) 31 @ Oklahoma State (2 - 2) 34: This is a tough pick. Despite showing improvement, Texas' opening win over Notre Dame is somewhat diminished given the performance of the Irish since. Oklahoma State, my early pick to win the Big 12, has been inconsistent but might be able to get it together against the Longhorns.

Rutgers (2 - 2) 10 @ (2) Ohio State (4 - 0) 30: Rutgers gave Iowa a tough game last week, but playing the Buckeyes at the Horseshoe is a different matter altogether.

(14) Miami (3 - 0) 23 @ Georgia Tech (3 - 1) 17: Georgia Tech's option offense always poses a challenge for defenses, but it isn't quite as potent as past versions. Defensively, the Hurricanes are very good, but the offense hasn't gotten geared up, but should be good enough to escape Atlanta with a win.

North Carolina (3 - 1) 34 @ (12) Florida State (3 - 1) 38: North Carolina can put points on the board, but they're suspect defensively and I look for the 'Noles to exploit their weaknesses.

(8) Wisconsin (4 - 0) 24 @ (4) Michigan (4 - 0) 27: The Badgers have a brutal schedule, this one their second consecutive game against a top ten team in the state of Michigan. Their next game is against Ohio State, so it doesn't get any easier. The Wolverines are on an early season roll and I give them a slight edge at home.

Illinois (1 - 2) 13 @ (15) Nebraska (4 - 0) 30: If you're looking for a national darkhorse, Nebraska might fit the bill. They have a favorable schedule and are beginning to click offensively in their second year under coach Mike Riley.

(10) Tennessee (4 - 0) 27 @ (25) Georgia (3 - 1) 17: Georgia was really exposed against Ole Miss last week while Tennessee is starting to meet early expectations. I'm still not totally sold on either one of these teams, but I'll go with the Vols' offense to get the win.

(9) Texas A&M (4 - 0) 30 @ South Carolina (2 - 2) 16: The Aggies sent a  big message with a fourth quarter surge against Arkansas last week. Despite a .500 record, South Carolina just isn't that good.

Oklahoma (1 - 2) 37 @ (21) TCU (3 - 1) 30: I initially had TCU in this one, but something tells me that the Sooners will bring some renewed intensity after a week to think about the beating they took from Ohio State.

(18) Utah (4 - 0) 28 @ California (2 - 2) 27: The Pac-12 has a lot of good teams and the Utes are one of them. I think they'll contain Cal enough to remain undefeated.

Memphis (3 - 0) 30 @ (16) Ole Miss (2 - 2) 34: Last season Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch and head coach Justin Fuente had a coming out party by shocking the Rebels. Despite a strong team, they won't be able to sneak up on Ole Miss this time around.

Kentucky (2 - 2) 10 @ (1) Alabama (4 - 0) 34: This is the last easy game for the Tide before facing Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas A&M and LSU in succession. Despite a win over South Carolina last week, the Wildcats are overmatched in this one.

(19) San Diego State (3 - 0) 31 @ South Alabama (2 - 2) 20: West Coast teams going east sometimes have a lot of difficulty, but fortunately for San Diego State it's a night game beginning at 5:00 pm PDT.

(3) Louisville (4 - 0) 31 @ (5) Clemson (4 - 0) 34: In the game of the day, and maybe the season, Louisville is looking to almost lock up the ACC Atlantic before the leaves turn. This should be a great one and giving a slight edge to the Tigers defense at home.

(17) Michigan State (2 - 1) 28 @ Indiana (2 - 1) 17: Indiana is definitely improving, but Michigan State will be looking to erase the memory of a beat down by Wisconsin last week. I don't think the Spartans are as good as their ranking, but they're better than the Hoosiers.

Utah State (2 - 2) 19 @ (24) Boise State (3 - 0) 33: Boise State is quietly re-emerging on the national scene. They should be able to prevail on the blue turf.

Virginia (1 - 3) 20 @ Duke (2 - 2) 27: Virginia finally got a win last week by outscoring Central Michigan, while Duke surprised Notre Dame after a disappointing start to the season.

Kansas State (2 - 1) 20 @ West Virginia (3 - 0) 27: The Mountaineers might end up making some noise in the Big 12, especially without a clear cut favorite having emerged yet.

Northwestern (1 - 3) 17 @ Iowa (3 - 1) 21: Iowa's offense hasn't come together, but they should have enough for Northwestern, who has also had a tough time scoring points.

Purdue (2 - 1) 21@ Maryland (3 - 0) 27: The Terrapins are trying to claw their way back to respectability, as is Purdue. Maryland is probably a little farther ahead in the effort.

Minnesota (3 - 0) 31 @ Penn State (2 - 2) 30: Most people probably think I'm crazy to think Minnesota could even think about defeating the Nittany Lions in State College, but Penn State has problems on defense.

Oregon State (1 - 2) 20 @ Colorado (3 - 1) 31:The Buffaloes took a big step in their rebuilding process with a win at Oregon last week. Now they get the other team from the state, but this time in Boulder.

Arizona State (4 - 0) 38 @ USC (1 - 3) 27: Arizona State is another one of those good Pac-12 teams, and USC isn't.

Oregon (2 - 2) 34 @ Washington State (1 - 2) 38: Oregon is 99th in the nation against the pass and Washington State can really sling it around. The Ducks were exposed by an improving Colorado passing game last week. I like the Cougars in an upset today.

Arizona (2 - 2) 17 @ UCLA (2 - 2) 23: UCLA is much better than their record and despite a tough loss to Stanford last week, they can still control the Pac-12 South.

Missouri (2 - 2) 20 @ LSU (2 - 2) 27: After firing head coach Les Miles and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, LSU is looking to start a new era under interim. coach Ed Orgero, who probably should have been retained by USC after Lane Kiffin's firing. Maybe LSU won't make the same mistake as the Trojans.

Notre Dame (1 - 3) 24 @ Syracuse (2 - 2) 28: Notre Dame is starting to looking like a major disappointment, dropping a home game to a mediocre Duke team. Athletically, they should have too much for Syracuse, but on the road in a difficult environment isn't the best way to try to right a listing ship.

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.