"Roughing the Passer - A PK Frazier Novel"

My new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" is the follow-up to "Illegal Procedure" and "Roughing the Passer" and is now available in print and in e-formats at amazon.com, smashwords.com and iBooks. Follow me on twitter @kevinkrest.

Saturday, October 15, 2016


Last Week:    21 - 11   65.6%
Overall:       150 - 42   78.1%

NC State (4 - 1) 20 @  (3) Clemson (6 - 0) 27: Clemson's a 19 point favorite against the eighth rated defense in the country. I think the Tigers still find a way to win, but the Wolfpack might make it very interesting for them.

Kansas State (3 - 3) 17 @  (19) Oklahoma (3 - 2) 28: Kansas State makes you win ugly and that's pretty much what Oklahoma's been this season. The Wildcats are thirteen and a half point road dogs, but their defense should keep them in the game while the offense gets to go against a below average Sooner defense.

(20) West Virginia (4 - 0) 30 @  Texas Tech (3 - 2) 40: West Virginia is undefeated and ranked in the top twenty, but they've been unimpressive on offense and they'll have to put up some big numbers in Lubbock to remain with an umblemished record. I don't think they can keep up with the Red Raiders.

(10) Nebraska (5 - 0) 27@  Indiana (3 - 2) 21: The difference in this one should be Nebraska's ability to run the ball on the Hoosiers. If they can't, they may be headed back to Lincoln with their first loss.

North Carolina (4 - 2) 17 @  (16) Miami (4 - 1) 27: Miami is built a lot like Va. Tech, who put a 34 - 3 beatdown on the Tar Heels in Hurricane Matthew last week. They'll be facing a different kind of Hurricane this week, but the results are likely to be similar.

(24) W. Michigan (6 - 0) 41 @ Akron (4 - 2) 20: With Houston losing last week, the Broncos of Western Michigan have their eyes on a New Year's Day Bowl. Akron will be overmatched in this one.

Wake Forest (5 - 1) 20 @  (14) Florida State (4 - 2) 26: The Seminoles are heavy favorites over Wake, but the Demon Deacons' defense is probably good enough to give Florida State fits. This game is wedged in between a couple of big matchups for the 'Noles and could be a trap game. If they look ahead to Clemson, they might get surprised.

Kansas (1 - 4) 17 @  (11) Baylor (5 - 0) 37: Baylor is quietly putting together a decent season, although their schedule is basically back loaded. This one shouldn't be much trouble for the Bears.

(1) Alabama (6 - 0) 37 @  (9) Tennessee (5 - 1) 27: Can Tennessee get the same good fortune against 'Bama that they've had all season? It's doubtful, even if Alabama is vulnerable against the deep ball. The real problem is Tennessee's porous defense.

(17) Va. Tech (4 - 1) 38 @  Syracuse (2 - 4) 13: The Hokies are 20 pint favorites in a place that they've traditionally struggled. But there's a new head man in Blacksburg and he seems to have Tech headed up. Wake Forest held Syracuse to nine points last week and I'm sure Hokie defensive coordinator Bud Foster has been studying that tape.

(21) Utah (5 - 1) 30 @ Oregon State (2 - 3) 21: Not a great match-up for Oregon State. They'll be trying to move the ball on the ground against a pretty good rushing defense. Utah should be able to win the battles on both sides of the ball.

Missouri (2 - 3) 13 @ (18) Florida (4 - 1) 27: Missouri is a lot better statistically than they are on the field. Florida got an unexpected week of rest while the Tigers were nursing their wounds after a 42 - 7 drubbing from LSU.

Tulsa (4 - 1) 20 @ (13) Houston (5 - 1) 38: We'll get to see if Houston can rebound after a big upset loss at Navy. The Middies can really run the ball, but Tulsa isn't too bad either.

(12) Ole Miss (3 -2) 27 @ (22) Arkansas (4 - 2) 30: This shapes up as a very even football game, despite the Rebels being favored by a touchdown. Arkansas is going to have to do something that's been difficult the last few seasons: winning the week after playing Alabama. I think they can.

(2) Ohio State (5 - 0) 23 @ (8) Wisconsin (4 - 1) 17: This is shaping up as a great game. Ohio State has been dominating in their undefeated start, but the schedule hasn't been particularly challenging. Yes, they have the win at Oklahoma, but going into Camp Randall is a different story. Wisconsin has been battle tested and took a strong Michigan team to the wire before a bye week. I like the Badger defense, but I'm not sure they have enough offensively to pull out a win.

Colorado State (3 - 3) 17 @ (15) Boise State (5 - 0) 38: Boise State has plenty of weapons to overpower Colorado State that's lacking potency on defense.

Pittsburgh (4 - 2) 28 @ Virginia (2 - 3) 31: After three embarrassing losses to start the season, Virginia has looked much better the last couple of weeks under new coach Bronco Mendenhall. Pittsburgh's pass defense is vulnerable and Mendenhall has his team throwing the ball pretty well. I smell upset here.

Iowa State (1 - 5) 27 @ Texas (2 - 3) 37: If Texas drops this one, head coach Charlie Strong won't last the weekend. They should be able to dominate offensively, but they'll need to make sure Iowa State doesn't stay in the ball game in the fourth quarter.

Minnesota (3 - 2) 21 @ Maryland (4 - 1) 26: If Minnesota can run the ball on the Terps, the visitors stand a chance of pulling the upsets. Maryland was exposed by Penn State last week, but the Golden Gophers aren't quite as potent.

Iowa (4 - 2) 28 @ Purdue (3 - 2) 20: Iowa seems to have gotten their running game going and Purdue hasn't been good against the rush. Purdue will probably be able to keep it close, though.

Northwestern (2 - 3) 24 @ Michigan State (2 - 3) 27: The Spartans have dropped three in a row Neither of these teams is doing much offensively, but Michigan State's defense is better and it should get them the win.

USC (3 - 3) 37 @ Arizona (2 - 4) 31: USC is playing much better and has a chance to put up some points against a porous defense. The Wildcats have had trouble stopping people and it probably won't change much against the Trojans.

Stanford (3 - 2) 20 @ Notre Dame (2 - 4) 30: Stanford is having a down year and Notre Dame needs to win to keep from the brink of bowl elimination. The Irish will win this one through the air.

Arizona State (5 - 1) 30 @ Colorado (4 - 2) 31: Arizona State has been impressive, but Colorado should be able to move the ball against a defense that hasn't been stopping many people. I'll take the Buffs at home in Boulder.

UCLA (3 - 3) 34 @ Washington St. (3 - 2) 37: This game comes down to whether UCLA QB Josh Rosen is healthy enough to exploit a weak Cougar pass defense. I liked Washington State before the season and they appear to be rounding into form..

Vanderbilt (2 - 4) 14 @ Georgia (4 - 2) 20: Georgia isn't great, but they're better than Vandy, although the Commodores have a pretty decent defense. The Bulldogs will need to avoid turnovers or they could go down to defeat between the hedges.

So. Miss. (4 - 2) 24 @ LSU (3 - 2) 34: Leonard Fournette's absence for LSU could be a factor in this game, but LSU should have too much for a Southern Miss team that will be taking a big step up in class in Death Valley.

Georgia So. (3 - 2) 23 @ Georgia Tech (3 - 3) 37: You won't see many passes in this game, which could be one of the fastest ones we'll see all season. Georgia Southern is playing their third of four consecutive road games. The Yellow Jackets are just a bigger, faster version and will be able to win with better play in the trenches.

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.