"Roughing the Passer - A PK Frazier Novel"

My new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" is the follow-up to "Illegal Procedure" and "Roughing the Passer" and is now available in print and in e-formats at amazon.com, smashwords.com and iBooks. Follow me on twitter @kevinkrest.

Thursday, September 26, 2013

NFL WEEK 3 RECAP AND WEEK 4 PREDICTIONS

Last Week:  8 - 8. Well, it was bound to happen. The Packers let me down with a late fumble and no one can figure out what's happening with the Giants. And what about the 'Niners? A mini slump, or is there more going on in San Francisco than we think? My best pick of the week was the Jets win over the Bills. I'm hoping for a rebound this week.

Season:  30 - 18

Week 3 Recap:

Kansas City  (2-0) 24 @ Philadelphia (1-1) 27: Are the Chiefs really good or are the Eagles still experiencing some growing pains under new coach Chip Kelly? Probably a little of both.  No. 26 - 16.

Arizona (1-1)  20  @ New Orleans  (2-0) 24: Correct. 7 - 31.

Green Bay  (1-1) 28 @ Cincinnati (1-1) 20: As I mentioned before, the Pack had this one in the bag before the Bengals returned a fourth down fumble for a late TD. I like the Bengals in the AFC North, but this one was a gift. No. 30 -34.

St. Louis (1-1) 20 @ Dallas (1-1) 30: Correct. 7 - 31.

Cleveland  (0-2) 13 @ Minnesota  (0-2) 24: It's hard to explain this one, a classic NFL result. No. 31 - 27.

San Diego  (1-1) 27 @ Tennessee (1-1) 24: Maybe the Chargers were jet lagged after back to back trips to the east. Of course, the Titan defense had something to do with it, too. No. 17 - 20.

Tampa Bay (0-2) 17 @ New England (2-0) 24: Correct. 3 - 23.

Detroit (2-0) 27 @ Washington (0-2) 28: I said this one was a pick from my heart. Well, that's always a mistake.  No. 27 - 20.

NY Giants (0-2) 27 @ Carolina (0-2) 21: Probably not a big shocker that the Panthers held serve at home, but this was real beat down of one of the recent elite teams. There are a lot of problems in Giant land. No. 0 - 38.

Houston (2-0) 30 @ Baltimore (1-1) 20: The Texans did it with mirrors the first two weeks and they fooled me. The Ravens seem to be coming back from their offseason personnel changes. No. 9 - 30.

Atlanta (1-1) 24 @ Miami (2-0) 27: I really like Miami after picking against them the first two weeks. At least I can adapt. Correct. 23 - 27.

Buffalo (1-1) 17 @ NY Jets (1-1) 20: This was probably my best pick of the week. A team that everyone was burying in the preseason is now 2 - 1. Correct. 20 - 27.

Indianapolis (1-1) 27 @ San Francisco (1-1) 31: I'm starting to wonder if San Francisco is the same team as a year ago. They struggled to beat a now 1 - 2 Green Bay squad at home in week one and now have suffered two lopsided losses.  No. 27 - 7.

Jacksonville (0-2) 13 @ Seattle (2-0) 30: Correct. 17 - 45.

Chicago  (2-0) 27 @ Pittsburgh (0-2) 17: Correct. 40 - 23.

Oakland (1-1) 20 @ Denver (2-0) 27: Correct. 21 - 37.

This Week's Picks:

The NFL season is beginning to take shape, with the good teams getting some separation from the teams that have significant weaknesses. But beginning with tonight's game, the schedule is full of great  matchups that are very difficult to predict. But I'm a glutton for punishment, so here we go with this week's games.

San Francisco (1-2) 27 @ St. Louis (1-2) 17: With Seattle already 3-0 and a win over the 'Niners, San Francisco needs to win this one on the road. The Rams return home after a couple of weeks on the road where they gave up 31 points in each game. I like Jeff Fisher, but his defense doesn't have enough weapons to stop what will be an angry 'Niners squad.

Seattle (3-0) 28 @ Houston (2-1) 24: The Texans won a couple of close games to start the season, then got shredded at Baltimore last week. The Seahawks, after a squeaker on the road at Carolina, have been predictably tough at home the last two weeks. I'm not sure the Texans can score enough to win this week.

Chicago (3-0) 30 @ Detroit (2-1) 24: Is Chicago for real? I'm uncomfortable with picking all of these road teams to win, but I like what Bears' QB Jay Cutler is doing to go along with their always opportunistic defense and special teams.

Cincinnati (2-1) 27 @ Cleveland (1-2) 17: Was last week's victory by the Browns a fluke, or have the changes at QB and the trading of Trent Richardson motivated the team? The Bengals are coming off a good  game that they found a way to win, despite looking like they would fall short. This is a coin flip for me, but I'm taking the better team.

Indianapolis (2-1) 31 @ Jacksonville (0-3) 20: Trap game for the Colts? I can't believe that if I go with Indy, it'll be five straight road teams. But the Jags are just plain awful and I can't go with the upset, even though I think it's possible as the Colts have to go coast to coast after last week's big win over San Francisco.

NY Giants (0-3) 21 @ Kansas City (3-0) 27: How bad did the Giants play last week? ... No, probably worse than that. The Chiefs are a really tough team at home and Giants are a train wreck. I'll take Kansas City at home, putting the Giants at an unthinkable 0-4.

Arizona (1-2) 17 @ Tampa Bay (0-3) 20: Last week, the Browns made a change at QB and won a game on the road. This week, the Bucs changed direction by determining that Josh Freeman is no longer in their plans. Will it work? I'm not sure, but Tampa Bay can play some defense, so I'll go with the Bucs at home to get their first win.

Baltimore (2-1) 24 @ Buffalo (1-2) 20: The Bills are a decent team, but the Ravens appear to have regained their swagger. Even on the road, Baltimore should prevail.

Pittsburgh (0-3) 23 @ Minnesota (0-3) 28: Pittsburgh found a way score last week, finding a running game for the first time this season. The Vikings were shocked by the Browns. I have no clue on this one, so I'll stick with the home team, although I don't believe the Steelers will stay this bad for the entire season.

NY Jets (2-1) 23@ Tennessee (2-1) 20: Are the Jets for real? All of a sudden the AFC East looks like it could be pretty tough, with the Dolphins making early season noise in Miami. I'm jumping on the bandwagon until they lose. Classy move, huh?

Washington (0-3) 27 @ Oakland (1-2) 24: Will my Redskins finally break through? Last week I went with my heart and paid the price. The Raiders have a tenacious defense, but Peyton Manning found a way to victimize them Monday night. If the Redskins can finally unleash RGIII, they may find a way to go west and win.

Philadelphia (1-2) 27 @ Denver (3-0) 38: Let's see. The Eagles have given up 27, 33 and 26 points, two of them at home to quarterbacks not named Peyton Manning. If the Eagles continue with the up tempo offense, Peyton could put up 60. Manning will cool off and the Broncos will eventually lose one, but not this week.

Dallas (2-1) 30@ San Diego (1-2) 21: The Cowboys are another team that can show they're a true contender this week. The Chargers laid an egg last week, but this time they're at home. I consider this one a coin toss, but I'll go with the 'Boys to continue some momentum.

New England (3-0)  27 @ Atlanta (1-2) 28: The Falcons have their backs to the wall, especially with the way the Saints are playing. And how the Patriots are 3 - 0 without any experienced weapons for Tom Brady is a mystery. The Falcons are generally pretty reliable at home, so I'll take them in what could be a war of the tight ends as Gronkowski likely returns for the Pats and Tony Gonzalez continues to turn back the clock.


Miami  (3-0) 20 @ New Orleans (3-0) 27: This is the game of the week and it's very cool that it's on Monday night. The Dolphins and second-year QB Ryan Tannehill are in for quite a challenge with an after dark game in the Superdome. The Saints' defense has experienced a resurgence under defensive coordinator Rob Ryan and I believe they'll be enough to go to 4 - 0.