"Roughing the Passer - A PK Frazier Novel"

My new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" is the follow-up to "Illegal Procedure" and "Roughing the Passer" and is now available in print and in e-formats at amazon.com, smashwords.com and iBooks. Follow me on twitter @kevinkrest.

Thursday, September 5, 2013

NCAA Football Predictions and Last Week's Recap

Last week: 15 - 6. Of the six games I missed, five of them involved SEC teams. I guess I need to be a little more diligent in my assessments. I also feel the MAC won't be as strong as a conference as last year, if their  performances from last week are any indication. Here's a recap of last week's picks, followed by this week's predictions.

UNC 21 at (6) South Carolina 24: Yes. 10 - 27.

(24) USC 31 at Hawaii  17: Yes. 13 - 30

Ole Miss 28 at Vanderbilt 30: No. I was beaten on this one by a late 75 yard TD by the Rebels.  39-35.

Massachusetts  6  at (23) Wisconsin 42: Yes. 0 - 45

Buffalo 10 at (2) Ohio St 38.: Yes. 20 -40.

Toledo 27 at (10) Florida 24: No. Toledo really didn't show up offensively and Florida may be better than I thought. 6 - 24.

Rice  21 at (7) Texas A&M 31:Yes. 31 - 52.

Mississippi St. 34 at (13) Oklahoma St. 31: No. The Bulldog's offense never got going against a defense that should still be suspect. If that Cowboy defense is for real, then they could seriously compete for the national championship. 3 - 21.

Temple  13 at (14) Notre Dame 31:  Yes. 6 - 28.

Central Michigan 13 at (17) Michigan 34: Yes. 9 - 59.

Eastern Washington  24 at (25) Oregon St. 30: No. Even though I missed this one, it didn't surprise me at all. 49 - 46.

Louisiana-Monroe 27 at (16) Oklahoma 34: Yes. 0 - 34.

Wyoming 10 at (18) Nebraska 38: Yes. 34 - 37.

New Mexico St. 7 at (15) Texas 42: Yes. 7 - 56.

(5) Georgia  38 at (8) Clemson 35: No. I picked the score right, I just had the teams reversed. I'm actually very pleased with the outcome. 35 - 38.

(12) LSU 24 vs. (20) TCU 27: No. I got TCU's score correct in this one, but LSU ended up bringing a strong offensive attack. 37 -- 27.

(19) Boise St. 27 at Washington 31: Yes. 6 - 38.  
Nevada 17 at (21) UCLA 28: Yes. 20 - 58.

(22) Northwestern  34 at California 13: Yes. 44 - 30.

Ohio 24 at (9) Louisville 30: Yes. 7 - 49.

 (11) Florida St. 27 at Pittsburgh 17:  Yes. 41 - 13.

Nicholls 6 at (3) Oregon 58: Yes. 3 - 66.

Louisiana-Lafayette 24 at Arkansas 28: Yes. 14 - 34.

Virginia Tech 17 vs. (1) Alabama 28: Yes. 10 - 35.

Week 2 Predictions:

(13) Oklahoma St. 35 UTSA 10: I was pretty impressed with the Cowboys last week. UTSA shouldn't pose much of a problem this weekend.

(12) Florida 24 at Miami, FL 20: Okay, another SEC game, this one against another ACC foe. Miami is supposed to be much improved over last season, but Florida looked very good last week against Toledo. My record with the SEC teams wasn't very good. But I'll stick with Florida. I think the Hurricanes are still a year away from being really good.

Eastern Kentucky 13 at (8) Louisville 34: Eastern Kentucky will not be able to give Louisville much of a game in this one.

Tennessee Tech  7 at (21) Wisconsin 34: Ditto here. Wisconsin is tough and shouldn't have any problem with Tennessee Tech.
SE Louisiana 13 at (21) TCU  31: TCU came on late last week, but fell short against LSU. I look for them to rebound pretty well in this one.
S. Car. St. 6 (4) Clemson 41: In some cases, I might expect a letdown from the Tigers after their big win over Georgia last week. But their opponent this week won't offer much of a struggle. If Georgia couldn't slow down Taj Boyd, it won't happen Saturday.
(2) Oregon 35 at Virginia 14: Last week the Cavaliers pulled out a squeaker against BYU, but this game will be a big step up for UVA. The Ducks come east, but it shouldn't do much to slow them down. An upset here would be huge for the ACC, but I don't see much chance of it happening.
San Diego St. 7 at (3) Ohio St. 44: This one's already over, if that's possible. San Diego St. was trounced last week by Eastern Illinois. Game over!
Buffalo 24 at (23) Baylor 38: It seems as if Buffalo can score on the top level teams, but can't stop them. Baylor hasn't played a game yet and the Bulls have faced a tough Ohio St. team, so the Bears need to be on guard. But I think Baylor's offense will prevail.
(6) South Carolina 27 at (11) Georgia 24:  This, of course, is the game of the week. especially in the south and particularly in the SEC.  I watched both of these teams last week and I liked what I saw from South Carolina. But of course, they weren't playing Clemson. It's hard for me to know how well the Gamecocks played on defense until we see North Carolina play more games.  Since my record on the SEC was terrible last week, I'll go with South Carolina in what should be a terrific game.
Syracuse  20 at (19) Northwestern  28: The ranked Wildcats went out to California and got a 44 - 30 victory over a team that may be near the bottom of the Pac-12. I'm not sold on Northwestern, but I think they can outscore Syracuse, a 23 -17 loser at home to Penn St. But I won't be shocked if there's an upset in this one.
Southern Mississippi  24 at (22) Nebraska 30: Both of these teams struggled last week, So. Miss. in a loss to Conference USA newcomer Texas St. and the Cornhuskers in a close win against Wyoming. My sense is that Nebraska just isn't all that good, but neither is So. Miss., so stick with the 'Huskers in this one.
West Virginia  10 at (16) Oklahoma 37: This is going to be a very long season for West Virginia, who last week struggled to defeat FBS William and Mary in Morgantown. I watched enough of that game to figure out that the Mountaineers just don't have the athletes they had in the past. Oklahoma may finally a defense that can get them back into the national picture. This one is going to be very ugly.
(15) Texas  27 at BYU 21: Texas had a slow start last week before putting away a miserable New Mexico St. team. BYU lost to Virginia, so I'll go with Texas, who I think is much improved from previous seasons. But the game's in Provo, so I'll give the Cougars a chance.
Sam Houston St. 34 at (7) Texas A&M 54: Sam Houston St. is a high scoring FBS squad that put up 28 points on Texas A&M in a 47 - 28 loss. Last week, the Aggies gave up 31 points to what should have been an overmatched Rice team. A&M better not let down, or they could suffer an embarrassing loss.
UAB 13 @ (9) LSU 38: Saturday night at Death Valley in Baton Rouge. Enough said.
(14) Notre Dame 24 at (17) Michigan 31: For most of the country outside of the south, this is probably the game of the week. Last year's national championship runner-up used a win in this game a season ago to vault into contention. This year, I see Michigan doing the same thing. I like the Wolverines to end any Irish national championship hopes early.
Washington St. 21 at  (25) USC 30: The Trojans passed their first test of the season on the road against Hawaii and seem poised to contend in the Pac-12 this season. This is one of those games they can't afford to lose and won't.
San Jose St. 27 at (5) Stanford 24: San Jose St. may be the best unknown team in the country. They were ranked at the end of last season and lost by only a field goal to Stanford last year. The Spartans have a game under their belt, a shutout victory, while Stanford will be playing their season opener. This is a very scary game for the Cardinal. This is my upset pick of the week.
Samford 6 at Arkansas  41 (in Little Rock): No contest here. Arkansas coach Bret Bielema just won't let the Hogs let down against an FBS team.

Western Carolina 6 at Virginia Tech 20: The Hokies' defense was brilliant against the Crimson Tide and actually kept its team in the ball game late into the third quarter. But the offense continues to struggle and probably will for quite a while.