"Unplayable Lie - A PK Frazier Novel

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Thursday, September 12, 2013

NFL WEEK 1 RECAP AND WEEK 2 PREDICTIONS

WEEK 1 RECAP:

Last Week: A very respectable 10 - 6.

The big disappointment of the week was probably the Steelers losing to the Titans at home.  I think the most surprising game was how the Jets were able to eke out a one point win over the Bucs.

DENVER (HOME TEAM IN CAPS) 30 Baltimore 24: Correct. 49 - 27.

PITTSBURGH 27 Tennessee 24: Ouch! The Steelers weren't able to do anything against the Titans defense.  9 - 16.

New England  27 BUFFALO 20: Correct. 23 - 21.

Atlanta 30 NEW ORLEANS 28: As predicted, this was one of the best Week One matchups. It was a tossup for me and I whiffed on it.  17 - 23.

Tampa Bay 24 NEW YORK JETS 17: The Jets got a gift at the end of the game, but it was still a big win.   17 - 18.

Kansas City 27 JACKSONVILLE 24: Correct. 28 - 2.

SEATTLE 30 Carolina 20: Correct. 12 - 7.

CLEVELAND 27 Miami 24: There was really no logic to this pick and it showed. 10 - 23.

DETROIT 21 Minnesota 20: Correct. 34 - 24.

INDIANAPOLIS 34 Oakland 17: Correct. 21 - 17.

CHICAGO 28 Cincinnati 27: Correct. 24 - 21.

ST. LOUIS 24 Arizona 17: Correct. 27 - 24.

SAN FRANCISCO 37 Green Bay 34: Correct. 34 - 28.

DALLAS 30 New York Giants 20: Correct. 36 - 31.

WASHINGTON 27 Philadelphia 20:  Too many turnovers hurt the 'Skins and RGIII was clearly rusty in the first half. 27 - 33.

SAN DIEGO 31 Houston 28: This one made me 0 for Monday night. New coach, same result for the Chargers. At least I got the final score right. 28 - 31.


WEEK 2 PREDICTIONS:

NEW ENGLAND   24 New York Jets  16: A couple of weeks ago, there wouldn't be much doubt as to who to pick here. But the Jets pulled off a miracle and Brady is lacking offensive weapons. If I was going to bet against the spread, I'd surely pick the Jets to cover 12 points. But I think the Patriots can confuse Geno Smith of the Jets enough to pull out a win.

GREEN BAY 28  Washington 24: As much as it pains me to do so, Washington faces a short week and having to travel to Green Bay to play a dangerous Packer offense. Unless the 'Skins defense can make some big plays, it looks like they'll fall to 0 - 2.

BALTIMORE  27 Cleveland 20: The Ravens will be smarting from the drubbing at the hands of Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. They face a Cleveland team that is still struggling to find an offensive identity. I like the Ravens here.

ATLANTA  27 St. Louis 24: Coming off a disappointing loss in New Orleans, the Falcons come home for a critical game to keep from starting the season 0 -2. The Rams continue to improve under Jeff Fisher, but the Georgia Dome should be good to Atlanta this weekend.

PHILADELPHIA  38  San Diego  27: This could look a lot like last week, with the Eagles getting a big lead early and then holding on. The Chargers are coming off a short week and a long trip to the east.

CHICAGO  27 Minnesota 21: A big NFC North matchup, with the improved Bears looking to continue the momentum of last week's win over the Bengals. Cutler should find a way to win this one.

BUFFALO  20 Carolina 24: Both teams are coming off tough losses to elite teams. This is a tossup for me, but I'll go with Cam Newton to put this one in the W column for the Panthers.

HOUSTON  27 Tennessee  21: I like the progress the Titans are making, but I don't think they have enough on offense to win against a jubilant Texans squad that stole one from the Chargers.

INDIANAPOLIS  28 Miami 27: I'm really tempted to take the Dolphins here. They posted a good win against the Browns last week, but it's tough to go against Andrew Luck and the Colts at home.

KANSAS CITY  30 Dallas 27: Who knows the Cowboys better than Andy Reid? The Chiefs dismantled the Jags last week and I wasn't impressed with the Dallas defense Sunday night. Maybe it's wishful thinking that a 'Skins' divisional rival will drop a game, but I like Kansas City this season.

TAMPA BAY   17 New Orleans  31: The Bucs are dealing with a lot of controversy this week following their meltdown against the Jets. The Saints looked great against the Falcons, especially on defense.

ARIZONA  27  Detroit 24: Carson Palmer to Larry Fitzgerald is going to be tough to defend as the season goes on. If the Colts can defense Reggie Bush, then they can get a victory on Sunday.

NEW YORK GIANTS  30 Denver 34: Well, the easiest prediction is that a Manning will win Sunday. Seriously though, I think Denver will win a lot of football games this season, probably 13 or 14 and this will be one of them. Despite going east, the Broncos are on a mission and have the personnel, especially the QB, to pull it off.

OAKLAND  27 Jacksonville 14: The Jaguars are a train wreck and the Raiders are probably a little better than people projected, given their performance on the road against the Colts. Terrell Pryor is definitely their man at QB and they're physical enough on defense to cause teams problems.  The Jags are a train wreck and headed west, or south...

SEATTLE  20 San Francisco 28: What a matchup for week 2. The Seahawks barely beat the Panthers, looking pretty poorly offensively. The 49er's defeated a good Packers squad. To hear most pundits, these are the two best teams in the league. Despite being on the road at a very difficult place to play, I'm going with San Francisco.


CINCINNATI  21 Pittsburgh 20: It's hard to be predicting that the Steelers will drop to 0 -  2, but that's what I'm doing. I like the personnel that the Bengals have and they gave the Bears a real game on the road to begin the season. 

NCAA FOOTBALL RECAP AND PREDICTIONS

Don't forget to check out my new E-book, "Illegal Procedure - A PK Frazier Novel", now available in all E-book formats.

Week 2 Recap:

Last week: 16 - 5. Season: 31- 11

Once again, the SEC did me in, costing me two of the five games that I missed. However, it was good to see the Miami Hurricanes give the ACC a quality win, although we'll see how big a win that is as the season progresses. I'm still not sold on the Gators, especially in that tough SEC. And although I gave the BYU Cougars a chance, I didn't think Texas would lay a defensive egg.  And then there's what happened to USC, scoring just seven points in a crippling loss to Wahington St., one that clearly puts coach Lane Kiffen on the hot seat.

(13) Oklahoma St. 35 UTSA 10:  Correct.  56 - 35

(12) Florida 24 at Miami, FL 20: Missed this one. Florida just couldn't convert in the red zone.  16 - 21

Eastern Kentucky 13 at (8) Louisville 34: Correct.  7 - 44

Tennessee Tech  7 at (21) Wisconsin 34: Correct.  0 - 48
SE Louisiana 13 at (21) TCU  31: Correct.  17 - 38
S. Car. St. 6 (4) Clemson 41: Correct. 13 - 52
(2) Oregon 35 at Virginia 14: Correct. 59 - 10
San Diego St. 7 at (3) Ohio St. 44: Correct.  7 - 42
Buffalo 24 at (23) Baylor 38: Correct.  13 - 70
(6) South Carolina 27 at (11) Georgia 24:  It was a terrific game, I just failed to predict the correct winner. It will be difficult now for the national champion to come out of the SEC East. 30 - 41
Syracuse  20 at (19) Northwestern  28: Correct.  27 - 48
Southern Mississippi  24 at (22) Nebraska 30: Correct.   13 - 56
West Virginia  10 at (16) Oklahoma 37: Correct. 7 - 16
(15) Texas  27 at BYU 21:  Maybe Texas coach Mack Brown and USC coach Lane Kiffen can get a hot seat for two...  21 - 40
Sam Houston St. 34 at (7) Texas A&M 54:  Correct.  28 - 65
UAB 13 @ (9) LSU 38: Correct.  17 - 56
(14) Notre Dame 24 at (17) Michigan 31: Correct. 30 - 41
Washington St. 21 at  (25) USC 30: Trouble in Tinseltown, big time.  10 - 7
San Jose St. 27 at (5) Stanford 24: I either overestimated San Jose's offense or underestimated Stanford's defense, or maybe a little of both.  13 - 34
Samford 6 at Arkansas  41 (in Little Rock): Correct.  21 - 31
Western Carolina 6 at Virginia Tech 20: Correct.  3 - 45
This Week:
(24) TCU 24 at Texas Tech 21: TCU is without their starting QB for s few weeks, but I think they'll still have enough to hold off the Red Raiders.
Akron 13 at (11) Michigan 38: I really like Michigan, which is probably bad news for the Wolverines. Seriously, though, I think they're a bit underrated and may be able to challenge Ohio St. for the Big Ten crown.
(5) Stanford  31 at Army 10: I'm not making the same mistake with Stanford this week. Even though Stanford is having to travel East and play at 9:00 am PDT, they have way too much for Army.
(16) UCLA 34 at (23) Nebraska 31: The Bruins defeated the Cornhuskers last year, but that game was in Los Angeles. This one will be in Lincoln, with another West Coast team having to play at 9:00 am PDT. After a sluggish start to the season, Nebraska found their offense against Southern Miss in a 56 - 13 win. UCLA put up 58 against Nevada, so this is a pretty compelling matchup. I'm going with the Bruins in another close one.
(7) Louisville 45 at Kentucky 14:  This would make a great basketball matchup, but Kentucky got drilled in week 1 by Bobby Petrino's FCS Western Kentucky while Louisville is on a roll. It's going to take Mark Stoops, the new coach at Kentucky a while to do one of two things: 1) Make the Wildcats competitive, or 2) Give up after three years and go back to coaching defense at a real football school.
Tulsa 10 at (14) Oklahoma 27: The Sooners seem to have something no Big 12 team has exhibited in a while, and that's a real defense. Unfortunately, they haven't shown much on offense, but they should be able to handle cross state rival Tulsa, who aren't nearly as strong as they have been in recent years.
Nevada  7 at (10) Florida St. 51: So let's see what we have in this one. Nevada is going east to play in Tallahassee, Florida at 3:30 in the afternoon in oppressing heat and humidity. They were beaten last week by UCLA, 58 - 20. The 'Noles'  Jameis Winston is coming off an incredible debut against Pittsburgh on the road. At some point Florida State will probably stub its toe, but not in this one.
Tennessee 17 at (2) Oregon 49:  The Vols have run over two FCS schools, rolling up 97 points for new coach Butch Jones, partly because Western Kentucky committed five turnovers in a six play span. So if an FCS school can turn the ball over six times and still put up 20 on Tennessee in Knoxville, what's Oregon going to do at home to the Vols?
(1) Alabama 28 at (6) Texas A&M 27: This is the one we've been waiting for since last year's upset by the Aggies and Johnnie Football's coming out party in Tuscaloosa. Alabama's offense was stifled by Virginia Tech in a 35 - 10 victory, relying instead on defense and special teams. A&M shredded the Crimson Tide a season ago, but I'm pretty sure Nick Saban has an answer for the now sophomore sensation. I think Alabama will prevail, but this should be one of the most entertaining games of the season.
(19) Washington 30 at Illinois 28: I really like Washington's resurgence, but Illinois is going through a similar process. This is a big test for the Huskies, especially since they'll be going east to Champaign.  Washington should still prevail, but it'll be closer than most people think.
(4) Ohio St.  38 at California 21: I'm not totally sold yet on Ohio State. They beat Buffalo 40 -20, then the Bulls got trounced by Baylor, giving up 70 points in the process. San Diego State is really bad, so a 42 - 7 win by the Buckeyes wasn't all that great. Cal isn't going to win this one, but I'm interested to see how Ohio State plays on the road.
Kent St. 10 at (8) LSU 41: Kent St. isn't all that good and they have to go into Death Valley on a September Saturday night. Heat, humidity, noise and a very good Tiger team will all serve to make this one a laugher.
Vanderbilt 24 at (13) South Carolina 34: The Gamecocks are coming off a disappointing loss to Georgia. Otherwise, I may have given thought to picking the Commodores in an upset. South Carolina has talent and should prevail.
Lamar 13 at (12) Oklahoma State 35: Lamar beat someone called Panhandle State 75 - 0 in their first game. Panhandle State? Really? Anyway, the Cowboys have had a distracting week, but they'll have plenty of firepower on both sides of the ball to easily win this one.
(25) Mississippi 31 at Texas 27: This is really not the game the Longhorns wanted to have following a crushing loss to BYU. The Rebels are on the rise and Texas is reeling, so much that Mack Brown fired his defensive coordinator during the week. Wow, talk about a little intrigue in Austin. The truth is that Texas hasn't been the same since defensive coordinator Will Muschamp left to coach Florida. This may signal the beginning of the end for Mack Brown.
(21) Notre Dame 38 at Purdue 17: This game should be a good one for the Irish to be able to rebound after a tough loss to Michigan. Purdue is a bottom feeder in the Big Ten, and despite this being a rivalry game, Notre Dame is much better than the Boilermakers.
Western Michigan 17 at (17) Northwestern  40: I'm not impressed with Northwestern's defense and this game won't tell me anything about that. Western Michigan really can't compete with the big-time programs this season, already losing to a mediocre Michigan State team by the score of 26 - 13.  Add a loss to Nicholls and it comes out to an easy win for the Wildcats.
(20) Wisconsin 27 at Arizona St. 30: In a combined three games against inferior competition, and I use that term loosely, neither of these teams has given up a point. Now they both have to play a real, quality FBS team. The Badgers will have to deal with the desert heat in Tempe. The Sun Devils will have to deal with the size and talent of Wisconsin. I'm going to pick the upset here and go with a program on the rise.
Virginia Tech 27 at East Carolina 17: In the past, this has been a nightmare for the Hokies. It's  tough to say where Tech is in terms of bouncing back from last year's disappointing  7 - 6 season. East Carolina has had early season success, but FCS Old Dominion and Florida Atlantic from Conference USA are clearly not the caliber of competition that the Hokies will present on Saturday. The Hokies' defense looks close to being impenetrable and the Pirates have put up a lot of points. It's the Tech offense that's the question mark here. I'll stick with my team and sweat it out while sitting in the stadium for the Arkansas - Southern Mississippi game.
Southern Mississippi  14 at Arkansas 37: The Razorbacks dodged a bullet Saturday in Little Rock by coming back to defeat FCS Samford. They jumped out to a big lead and then seemed to ease up a little bit. Knowing coach Bret Bielema's style, it'll probably be the last time that happens. Southern Mississippi should be dominated both offensively and defensively as the Hogs continue to make progress.
Georgia Tech 30 at Duke 24: This game should be a good gauge of how far the Blue Devils have come in upgrading their football program. Georgia Tech is really tough to defend and I don't think Duke will be able to handle it.
Mississippi St. 27 at Auburn 31: Auburn's win against Washington St. looks a lot better now that the Cougars upset USC last week. I liked Mississippi State to begin the season, but I have to go with Gus Malzahn's Tigers to put up more points.






Thursday, September 5, 2013

NFL WEEK ONE PREDICTIONS

Disclaimer: I haven't really been following the off season NFL stories, as I've been busy publishing one book and starting another. So this is kind of a crap shoot. I pick the games straight up, with little regard for the betting lines. Don't get me wrong, I bet, but that's a whole different process. Anyway, here are the first picks of the season.

DENVER (HOME TEAM IN CAPS) 30 Baltimore 24: I think there will be a true revenge factor here. The Broncos literally gave that playoff game to the Ravens. I don't think they'll be that generous tonight.

PITTSBURGH 27 Tennessee 24: When in doubt in the NFL, I generally take the home team. The Steelers, off a down year, have something to prove.

New England  27 BUFFALO 20: I know there were a lot of distractions for the Patriots and they have a real issue at tight end, but the Bills are going with untested rookie EJ Manuel at QB. Brady and Company will find a way to get it done.

Atlanta 30 NEW ORLEANS 28: This is one of the best Week One matchups. Sean Payton is back coaching the Saints and they'll be hungry to show the home crowd that they can contend again. But the Falcons also have a lot to prove. This was a tossup for me.

Tampa Bay 24 NEW YORK JETS 17: I'm being very generous by thinking the Jets can score 17 points. This team and organization is a train wreck right now. The Bucs, while not yet an elite team, are on the rise.

Kansas City 27 JACKSONVILLE 24: Not sure why I'm going with the Chiefs, but I like Andy Reid hooked up with Alex Smith at QB. You add Jamal Charles at RB and you have a pretty formidable combo.

SEATTLE 30 Carolina 20: Let's see, the Panthers have Cam Newton. The Seahawks have Russell Wilson. The Panthers have Cam Newton. The Seahawks have Marshawn Lynch. The Panthers have Cam Newton. The Seahawks have a shut down defense. Okay, you get the picture.

CLEVELAND 27 Miami 24: There is really no logic to this pick.

DETROIT 21 Minnesota 20: Eventually all of that talent that the Lions have should come together. This is another pick 'em game for me, but I'll go with the home team.

INDIANAPOLIS 34 Oakland 17: The Raiders are the worst organization in the league and the product they will put on the field this season will reflect that. Outside of Darren McFadden, they have, well, nothing.

CHICAGO 28 Cincinnati 27: Another really close pick, but I'll give the nod to the Bears at Soldier Field.

ST. LOUIS 24 Arizona 17: The Cardinals are a bit of a mystery to me, but the Rams, in their second season under coach Jeff Fisher, need to make things happen. I like them here.

SAN FRANCISCO 37 Green Bay 34: In the playoffs last season, Colin Kaepernick totally dismantled the Packers.  I think they'll make some adjustments, but the Niners are the complete deal and should manage to withstand an Aaron Rodgers assault.

DALLAS 30 New York Giants 20: The Giants have a lot of question marks and the Cowboys are poised to make a run, if Romo can avoid the brain farts.

WASHINGTON 27 Philadelphia 20:  As a diehard Redskin fan, this one is a great start to the season. I'm also a Virginia Tech Hokie, so you can throw in the Michael Vick piece of the story as well. I think the difference will be the Washington running game.  At least I hope so.


SAN DIEGO 31 Houston 28: The Texans' Gary Kubiak is on the hot seat and this game won't help much. I have no reason for picking the Chargers, other than they have a new coach and they're at home. 

NCAA Football Predictions and Last Week's Recap

Last week: 15 - 6. Of the six games I missed, five of them involved SEC teams. I guess I need to be a little more diligent in my assessments. I also feel the MAC won't be as strong as a conference as last year, if their  performances from last week are any indication. Here's a recap of last week's picks, followed by this week's predictions.

UNC 21 at (6) South Carolina 24: Yes. 10 - 27.

(24) USC 31 at Hawaii  17: Yes. 13 - 30

Ole Miss 28 at Vanderbilt 30: No. I was beaten on this one by a late 75 yard TD by the Rebels.  39-35.

Massachusetts  6  at (23) Wisconsin 42: Yes. 0 - 45

Buffalo 10 at (2) Ohio St 38.: Yes. 20 -40.

Toledo 27 at (10) Florida 24: No. Toledo really didn't show up offensively and Florida may be better than I thought. 6 - 24.

Rice  21 at (7) Texas A&M 31:Yes. 31 - 52.

Mississippi St. 34 at (13) Oklahoma St. 31: No. The Bulldog's offense never got going against a defense that should still be suspect. If that Cowboy defense is for real, then they could seriously compete for the national championship. 3 - 21.

Temple  13 at (14) Notre Dame 31:  Yes. 6 - 28.

Central Michigan 13 at (17) Michigan 34: Yes. 9 - 59.

Eastern Washington  24 at (25) Oregon St. 30: No. Even though I missed this one, it didn't surprise me at all. 49 - 46.

Louisiana-Monroe 27 at (16) Oklahoma 34: Yes. 0 - 34.

Wyoming 10 at (18) Nebraska 38: Yes. 34 - 37.

New Mexico St. 7 at (15) Texas 42: Yes. 7 - 56.

(5) Georgia  38 at (8) Clemson 35: No. I picked the score right, I just had the teams reversed. I'm actually very pleased with the outcome. 35 - 38.

(12) LSU 24 vs. (20) TCU 27: No. I got TCU's score correct in this one, but LSU ended up bringing a strong offensive attack. 37 -- 27.

(19) Boise St. 27 at Washington 31: Yes. 6 - 38.  
  
Nevada 17 at (21) UCLA 28: Yes. 20 - 58.

(22) Northwestern  34 at California 13: Yes. 44 - 30.

Ohio 24 at (9) Louisville 30: Yes. 7 - 49.

 (11) Florida St. 27 at Pittsburgh 17:  Yes. 41 - 13.

Nicholls 6 at (3) Oregon 58: Yes. 3 - 66.

Louisiana-Lafayette 24 at Arkansas 28: Yes. 14 - 34.

Virginia Tech 17 vs. (1) Alabama 28: Yes. 10 - 35.

Week 2 Predictions:

(13) Oklahoma St. 35 UTSA 10: I was pretty impressed with the Cowboys last week. UTSA shouldn't pose much of a problem this weekend.

(12) Florida 24 at Miami, FL 20: Okay, another SEC game, this one against another ACC foe. Miami is supposed to be much improved over last season, but Florida looked very good last week against Toledo. My record with the SEC teams wasn't very good. But I'll stick with Florida. I think the Hurricanes are still a year away from being really good.

Eastern Kentucky 13 at (8) Louisville 34: Eastern Kentucky will not be able to give Louisville much of a game in this one.

Tennessee Tech  7 at (21) Wisconsin 34: Ditto here. Wisconsin is tough and shouldn't have any problem with Tennessee Tech.
SE Louisiana 13 at (21) TCU  31: TCU came on late last week, but fell short against LSU. I look for them to rebound pretty well in this one.
S. Car. St. 6 (4) Clemson 41: In some cases, I might expect a letdown from the Tigers after their big win over Georgia last week. But their opponent this week won't offer much of a struggle. If Georgia couldn't slow down Taj Boyd, it won't happen Saturday.
(2) Oregon 35 at Virginia 14: Last week the Cavaliers pulled out a squeaker against BYU, but this game will be a big step up for UVA. The Ducks come east, but it shouldn't do much to slow them down. An upset here would be huge for the ACC, but I don't see much chance of it happening.
San Diego St. 7 at (3) Ohio St. 44: This one's already over, if that's possible. San Diego St. was trounced last week by Eastern Illinois. Game over!
Buffalo 24 at (23) Baylor 38: It seems as if Buffalo can score on the top level teams, but can't stop them. Baylor hasn't played a game yet and the Bulls have faced a tough Ohio St. team, so the Bears need to be on guard. But I think Baylor's offense will prevail.
(6) South Carolina 27 at (11) Georgia 24:  This, of course, is the game of the week. especially in the south and particularly in the SEC.  I watched both of these teams last week and I liked what I saw from South Carolina. But of course, they weren't playing Clemson. It's hard for me to know how well the Gamecocks played on defense until we see North Carolina play more games.  Since my record on the SEC was terrible last week, I'll go with South Carolina in what should be a terrific game.
Syracuse  20 at (19) Northwestern  28: The ranked Wildcats went out to California and got a 44 - 30 victory over a team that may be near the bottom of the Pac-12. I'm not sold on Northwestern, but I think they can outscore Syracuse, a 23 -17 loser at home to Penn St. But I won't be shocked if there's an upset in this one.
Southern Mississippi  24 at (22) Nebraska 30: Both of these teams struggled last week, So. Miss. in a loss to Conference USA newcomer Texas St. and the Cornhuskers in a close win against Wyoming. My sense is that Nebraska just isn't all that good, but neither is So. Miss., so stick with the 'Huskers in this one.
West Virginia  10 at (16) Oklahoma 37: This is going to be a very long season for West Virginia, who last week struggled to defeat FBS William and Mary in Morgantown. I watched enough of that game to figure out that the Mountaineers just don't have the athletes they had in the past. Oklahoma may finally a defense that can get them back into the national picture. This one is going to be very ugly.
(15) Texas  27 at BYU 21: Texas had a slow start last week before putting away a miserable New Mexico St. team. BYU lost to Virginia, so I'll go with Texas, who I think is much improved from previous seasons. But the game's in Provo, so I'll give the Cougars a chance.
Sam Houston St. 34 at (7) Texas A&M 54: Sam Houston St. is a high scoring FBS squad that put up 28 points on Texas A&M in a 47 - 28 loss. Last week, the Aggies gave up 31 points to what should have been an overmatched Rice team. A&M better not let down, or they could suffer an embarrassing loss.
UAB 13 @ (9) LSU 38: Saturday night at Death Valley in Baton Rouge. Enough said.
(14) Notre Dame 24 at (17) Michigan 31: For most of the country outside of the south, this is probably the game of the week. Last year's national championship runner-up used a win in this game a season ago to vault into contention. This year, I see Michigan doing the same thing. I like the Wolverines to end any Irish national championship hopes early.
Washington St. 21 at  (25) USC 30: The Trojans passed their first test of the season on the road against Hawaii and seem poised to contend in the Pac-12 this season. This is one of those games they can't afford to lose and won't.
San Jose St. 27 at (5) Stanford 24: San Jose St. may be the best unknown team in the country. They were ranked at the end of last season and lost by only a field goal to Stanford last year. The Spartans have a game under their belt, a shutout victory, while Stanford will be playing their season opener. This is a very scary game for the Cardinal. This is my upset pick of the week.
Samford 6 at Arkansas  41 (in Little Rock): No contest here. Arkansas coach Bret Bielema just won't let the Hogs let down against an FBS team.

Western Carolina 6 at Virginia Tech 20: The Hokies' defense was brilliant against the Crimson Tide and actually kept its team in the ball game late into the third quarter. But the offense continues to struggle and probably will for quite a while.

Thursday, August 29, 2013

COLLEGE FOOTBALL KICKOFF WEEKEND PREDICTIONS

My new book, "Illegal Procedure - A PK Frazier Novel" is now available on all E-Book outlets, including Smashwords, iBooks, Amazon.com and Barnes and Noble.


Now that football season is upon us, I've come out of blogger hibernation and will begin posting several times a week. The first weekend of the college season begins Thursday night, with a couple of compelling matchups on the slate. Last season, a number of so-called mid-major programs and conferences made some noise in big upsets of BCS conference teams.  I will be making weekly predictions, primarily of games involving top 25 teams and other important BCS conference matchups.

UNC 31 at (6) South Carolina 34: I'm really tempted to take UNC in this game, despite all of the hype and high expectations for the Gamecocks. Conventional wisdom dictates that if you're going to pull the upset, game one is the time to do it.  The Tar Heels could be improved offensively under second year coach Larry Fedora after scoring over 40 points a game last season, but I'm going to have to stay with South Carolina, mainly because they're at home and I think their defense can slow down the UNC.

(24) USC 31 at Hawaii  17: Despite the fact that Trojan coach Lane Kiffen has yet to name a starting quarterback to replace the departed Matt Barkley, I think they still have too much for the Rainbows. Coming from Southern California, Hawaii shouldn't be quite the distraction it might be for some other teams. Last year I wasn't alone in thinking USC had national championship potential. I think the Pac-12 might be a little strong at the top for them this year, but the Trojans still have a strong roster and could be in the top ten by season's end.

Ole Miss 28 at Vanderbilt 30: This is a very interesting early season matchup of two teams on the rise in the SEC. Under coach Hugh Freeze, the Rebels have been compiling top recruits and there is some reason for serious optimism in Oxford. But Vanderbilt was the victor by a point in this game last year and the Commodores have also improved, winning their final seven games of last season and looking to build on their best record since the Jay Cutler era. I like what James Franklin is doing in Nashville, so I'll go with Vandy in another tight game.

Massachusetts  6  at (23) Wisconsin 42: The Badgers have a new coach, but a lot of the roster that now-Arkansas coach Bret Bielema took to the Rose Bowl is still intact. No contest here, with UMass coming off a 1 - 11 season.

Buffalo 10 at (2) Ohio St 38.: Buffalo saw improvement through last season, but they really aren't any match for a team that many think, under coach Urban Meyer, can unseat Alabama.

Toledo 27 at (10) Florida 24: This is not a walkover for Florida. Toledo contended in the very strong Mid-American Conference last year and could give the Gators a fight in the Swamp. Of the top teams with mid-major opponents this weekend, this is probably the best upset possibility. Florida has a history of sluggish starts, but they better come to play Saturday afternoon. I'm not a big Gator fan, so I'm going with the huge upset.

Rice  21 at (7) Texas A&M 31: So now we know that Johnny Manziel will serve a huge, uh, well, maybe not so huge, uh, actually a kind of slap on the wrist. Really? Well, I guess the NCAA showed him. Or is it them? Despite the incredibly punitive action, I think A&M can still pull this one out. But all kidding aside, Rice can still be dangerous and a win would make their season. With all of the distractions, the Aggies better get focused.

Mississippi St. 34 at (13) Oklahoma St. 31: This is an interesting showdown between the SEC and the Big 12. The Bulldogs opened 2012 with seven consecutive wins before running into Alabama, then faltered down the stretch with only a win against the beaten down Arkansas Razorbacks in their last five games. The Cowboys are coming off an up and down season, where at times their defense was virtually non-existent. I believe we'll see the SEC defensive superiority exhibited in this game, as Mississippi State pulls the mild upset.

Temple  13 at (14) Notre Dame 31:  The Irish are coming off their disappointing performance against Alabama in the BCS championship game, and the Owls should provide a nice beginning to the 2013 season.

Central Michigan 13 at (17) Michigan 34: The Wolverines won this game easily last year, 41 - 7. Central Michigan struggled early in 2012, but won their last four games and five of their last six, including a bowl game. But I don't see them having enough to pull the upset in the Big House.

Eastern Washington  24 at (25) Oregon St. 30: The Beavers host the third-ranked FCS Eagles. In recent years, these have been dangerous games for FBS schools thinking they're cake walks. Eastern Washington gave Washington St. all they could handle last season, so Oregon St. better bring their A-game.

Louisiana-Monroe 27 at (16) Oklahoma 34: This is the same La.-Monroe team that went into Little Rock last season, knocked Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson out of the game and proceeded to derail the Razorbacks' season. The time has passed when BCS conference teams can overlook their Sun Belt Conference foes in these early season games. It's a rebuilding year in Norman, so don't be surprised if the Sooners get surprised in this one. However, I think they'll find a way to hold on.

Wyoming 10 at (18) Nebraska 38: This one shouldn't be any problem for the Cornhuskers. Wyoming is coming off a 4 - 8 season against less than stellar competition. I'm not sure what the rest of Nebraska's season will look like, but at least they'll begin 1 - 0.

New Mexico St. 7 at (15) Texas 42: Mack Brown is rumored to be on the hot seat in Austin. While this victory won't necessarily change that situation, he can at least go to next week remaining undefeated. The Aggies, not to be confused with the Longhorns' former Big 12 rivals, only managed one victory in 2012. Way to go Mack, coming out of the gate with a real challenge. Come on, now. Play someone credible and maybe I'll believe Texas deserves some notice this season.

(5) Georgia  38 at (8) Clemson 35: This is probably the game of the opening weekend with national championship implications. Georgia opens the season with back to back games with top ten teams, both from the state of South Carolina, as they also have to take on the Gamecocks next week. But they can't overlook a strong Clemson team, picked to win the ACC. Even though I'm basically an ACC guy, I like Georgia coach Mark Richt and think this might be his year with the Bulldogs. This pick won't please my nieces, but I think Georgia is just a little better.

(12) LSU 24 vs. (20) TCU 27: Although technically a neutral site game at Jerry's house in Arlington, TCU's campus is less than 20 miles down the road in Fort Worth. Of course, it's not a bad drive for LSU fans, either, so the atmosphere should be a good one. I think LSU is way over-ranked after having lost a lot of players to the and in another SEC - Big 12 matchup, I think TCU will pull the minor upset.

(19) Boise St. 27 at Washington 31: A lot of experts believe Washington has the potential to be very good this season. I tend to agree and think Boise State's stay in the top 25 will be short to start the season. This isn't the same Broncos team that contended for the national championship in years past. In an unusual bit of scheduling, these two teams played to end last season in the Las Vegas bowl with Boise coming out on top 28 - 26. This time, however, the game is in Seattle, where I believe the Huskies will prevail.

Nevada 17 at (21) UCLA 28: In his second season at UCLA, Jim Mora has reason for optimism to follow up his Pac 12 South title with continued success. I like the Bruins in this one.

(22) Northwestern  34 at California 13: Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald tries to continue the remarkable job he's done with the Wildcats, hoping to build on a ten-win season that culminated with a bowl victory over Mississippi State. Cal has a new coach and is probably not strong enough to give Northwestern much of a test.

Ohio 24 at (9) Louisville 30: Led by Heisman candidate Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville has high hopes for this season. However, this is the same Ohio team that beat Penn State to open the 2012 season. Ohio began last year strongly, struggling down the stretch in the tougher than expected Mid-American Conference. I think the Cardinals will prevail, but this game is worth checking out Sunday afternoon.

(11) Florida St. 27 at Pittsburgh 17: Welcome to the ACC, Pittsburgh. The good news is the Panthers move from the Big East, the bad news is they open with the team most expect to contend for the title with Clemson. Pittsburgh's Heinz field is a tough place to play and the Seminoles always seem to stub their tow at some point. However, I think they have too much on both sides of the ball and should have a solid start to the season.

Nicholls 6 at (3) Oregon 58: Not much to say about this one.

Louisiana-Lafayette 24 at Arkansas 28: The Razorbacks suffered two losses to teams from the state of Louisiana last season, one expected and the other a shocker, at least at the time. Bret Bielema makes his Arkansas coaching debut and hopes to avoid the fate of his interim predecessor against Louisiana-Monroe that signaled the demise of the Razorbacks' season. I'll be in the stadium for this one and feel like the Hogs will prevail in a close one.

Virginia Tech 17 vs. (1) Alabama 28: My Hokies are coming off their worst season in twenty years. It resulted in a new offensive coordinator, something Tech fans have been wanting for a while now. I guess we'll see if QB Logan Thomas can do to Alabama what Cam Newton and Johnny Manziel have done in recent seasons. It's a tall order, especially with the injuries that have plagued the Hokies in the preseason. While I certainly hope Tech can pull the upset, I just think they have too far to improve on both sides of the ball to contend in this one. And Alabama, well, they're still Alabama and Nick Saban is still Nick Saban. Sorry, fellow Hokies, but I just don't see this one going our way.

Sunday, August 11, 2013

PGA CHAMPION CROWNED

Read my new book, "Illegal Procedure - A PK Frazier Novel": Available now for purchase at www.Amazon.com and www.Smashwords.com.

PGA Championship Recap: Having watched all of the televised coverage of the PGA Championship, this year's final major played at storied Oak Hills Country Club in Rochester, New York, I noticed a number of things worth noting.
  • Oak Hill is a magnificent golf course. Not just because of its beauty or the fact that it's a Donald Ross design, but because of its ability to reward good golf shots and penalize bad ones appropriately. The point, especially of championship golf at its highest level, is to hit fairways and greens, then make your share of putts to contend. For the most part, that's what happened this week. Even if you're Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson, you can't be hitting the ball twenty yards into the rough and expect to be on the leader board come Sunday afternoon. The drives that Jason Dufner and Jim Furyk were hitting during the final round were amazing. And when the greens dried up and became firmer, they were still accepting well hit shots and providing plenty of chances for birdies. 
  • Tiger Woods is still human. Despite five wins in eight non-majors this year, Tiger still can't seem to put it together in the majors. Of course, I think it's now obvious that Oak Hill simply doesn't suit his game. There are a couple of reasons for that. First, it's a par 70. With the exception of Firestone Country Club's South Course, Tiger tends to dominate on par 72 layouts, such as Bay Hill, Muirfield Village, Torrey Pines, Doral and  Pebble Beach, where he can overwhelm the par 5's. Not so at Oak Hill, where even the two par fives were not reachable in two. Secondly, the course was set up with tight fairways and high rough, putting a premium on driving accuracy and length.  He's still having difficulty getting his driver in the fairway, so even on the holes that Tiger was able to hit the fairway, in many cases he did so with a three wood, five wood or iron, leaving him with lengthy second shots.
  • Usually considered the weakest of the majors, I'm finding myself becoming more fond of the PGA Championship. I like the fact that birdies are not a bad thing, unlike at the U.S. Open or even the Masters, where they feel like the players need to be exposed to torture chamber-like conditions in order to become a major champion. Jason Dufner played incredible golf to win, so why is it so bad that a perfectly struck iron ends up two feet from the pin instead of bounding senselessly to the back of the green on rock hard surfaces?
  • It makes me proud of the game and grateful to be a golfer and a fan when someone like Jason Dufner prevails. He takes his lumps, like two years ago when he squandered a five shot lead to lose to Keegan Bradley. Yet he's gracious enough in his post-round interview to say how privileged he feels to be able to play tournaments at that level. And then there was Keegan Bradley himself, waiting and cheering behind the 18th green, and then giving Dufner a congratulatory hug. There was a special spirit of camaraderie and sportsmanship displayed by Bradley that truly touched me. 
  • Jim Furyk is really pretty tough. Maybe it's because like Furyk, I have family roots in the Pittsburgh area and I value the blue collar work ethic he displays. Dufner really was pretty flawless on a tough golf course, yet Furyk seemed to keep willing himself into contention. Unlike the 2012 U.S. Open, when he clearly let the title slip away, Furyk didn't lose it, Dufner won it, but he knew he was in a fight.
  • Finally, congratulations to Jason Dufner. His unflappable manner and perseverance should be applauded, as at age 36, he was able to win his first major championship. It's an incredible accomplishment, especially when you consider that Steve Stricker, Lee Westwood, Sergio Garcia, Luke Donald, Dustin Johnson, Colin Montgomery and countless others have not managed to pull it off. 

Thursday, August 8, 2013

ESPN and NBC OUT-FOXED BY USGA, MLB RACES AND RUNAWAYS

They Say It's Not About Money: So one of the two leading golf organizations in the world decides to go with a network that to my knowledge, has never produced one hole of televised golf, to broadcast its leading championship and says it's not "simply the financials." Really? So what IS it about? The quality of Fox's golf coverage? Oops, there isn't any. The commitment that Fox has exhibited to the game of golf through its regional sports channels? Oops again. I mean, come on now. NBC has not only broadcast the U.S. Open for the last 19 years, but their parent company also owns, are you ready for this, the GOLF Channel. Talk about a broadcast organization with a commitment to golf, I think you need to start with Comcast. How can the USGA on one hand ban the belly putter to maintain the integrity of the game, and on the other one give a television deal to a network that until recently was never even mentioned in the same paragraph, much less the same sentence, with golf. The USGA, in my opinion, has lost all credibility regarding any claims about integrity, loyalty, honor, etc. in the game of golf. Fox has bought their way into the NFL, NASCAR and now USGA events without, in my opinion again, increasing anything except their own hype. Remember, Fox was the network that decided the way to increase the value of the viewer experience for hockey was to put a blue dot on the puck. Don't get me wrong, I certainly understand the economics of big time sports broadcasting. But the last time I checked, the USGA is a non-profit organization whose main purpose is to conduct championships at every level and along with the Royal and Ancient Golf Club, to maintain the Rules of Golf. This clearly smells like a money grab by the USGA and a big investment by Fox as they launch their new Fox 1 network, clearly competing with ESPN and NBC Sports Network on the national stage. But unlike other sports, golf is not easily or cheaply produced. It's narrow demographics and expensive production because of having to cover so much real estate, especially during the U.S. Open, make it a challenging proposition that CBS and NBC have been able to fine tune over the years. Now Fox expects to jump in the deep end of the pool and we don't even know if they can swim.

Baseball Races and Baseball Runaways: First of all, I need to comment on how contested the wild card race will be in the American League this year. Their are four teams within 1.5 games of each other, and the top wild card team, Texas, is only 1/2 game out of first place in their division while Tampa Bay only trails the Red Sox by 1.5 games. If you think Kansas City and the Yankees are still in the hunt, then you can expand the race to eight teams competing for four spots, assuming Detroit's five game lead over Cleveland is safe. This should be pretty compelling and a rating's bonanza, with only the White Sox, Angels and Astros eliminated from the major markets. The team that has to be loving this is the Oakland A's. The Rangers lost Nelson Cruz to suspension and the Angels, despite the big payroll and high profile lineup, are out of the running. Love it, hate it or just plain don't get it, moneyball is alive and well in Oakland.

Now the senior circuit, otherwise known as the National League (because they were around first), isn't quite as competitive. My Atlanta Braves have totally taken the drama out of the East, what was considered by many a very competitive division at the beginning of the season. After a thirteen game winning streak and sweep of the Nationals in Washington, the Braves own a seemingly insurmountable and totally improbable 15.5 game lead on the Nationals. Really? That's almost insane.

The real story here is that the Washington Nationals, with a legitimate chance last year to win the World Series, rested its star pitcher Stephen Strasburg in the post-season. Perhaps the thought was that they were built for the long-term and would be back there again. It doesn't always work that way in sports, however. The Atlanta Braves were on top for over fifteen years and won a lone World Series. The Buffalo Bills were in four consecutive Super Bowls and came away empty. It took Phil Mickelson, the second best golfer of his generation, almost a decade to capture his first major championship. What made the Nationals, a franchise with virtually no history of success, think that they could afford not to seize the moment? I thought it was a huge mistake a the time, and I still do, for them to shut Strasburg down completely. It probably made sense in September when it was apparent they would be in the playoffs. But to rest him in October was just crazy.

In both leagues, the teams that have heated up with the weather are making news. The Dodgers were left for dead in May, with talk of manager Don Mattingly's job being in jeopardy. Not so much now as they've stretched their lead over the D'backs to five games after winning fifteen straight road games. And the feel good team from Pittsburgh is almost assured to not just break their sub-.500 season streak, but have real shot at winning the Central Division in the NL. Of course to do that, they need to avoid another late season fade like those that have haunted them that last couple of years. It's hard not root for the Pirates unless, of course, if you're a Cardinals or Reds fan.

And then there are the Detroit Tigers, winners of eleven consecutive games. That would be pretty big news except that the Braves are in the midst of a season-best thirteen game streak of their own. The Tigers are good and when their pitching staff is on, as it is right now, they are really tough to beat. All in all, this is shaping up as a terrific September and October in baseball.

Read "Illegal Procedure - A PK Frazier Novel": Available now for purchase at www.Amazon.com and www.Smashwords.com.






Tuesday, August 6, 2013

NCAA RULES ON ATHLETE COMPENSATION

Johnny Manziel Hits a Nerve: There appears to be a growing number in the media that disagree over whether Johnny Manziel was right or wrong by allegedly, and that's a pretty important word in this situation, accepting compensation for his autograph. But in my opinion, there are at least two issues at play here, and in some ways, they actually overlap. I'll address them in no particular order.

The big issue at play seems to be whether Johnny Manziel, or any college student athlete for that matter, retains the rights over his or her own intellectual property, in this case specifically referring to a signature on a piece of paper or various forms of memorabilia. It can also refer to his or her likeness for marketing purposes or video clips for promotional purposes. In other words, can the university or any other entity profit from the use of these items without directly compensating the student athlete? Many would argue that scholarship student athletes are already compensated in the form of an education, especially those that are provided full scholarships. Others would argue that the scholarship really only covers that athlete's participation in whatever sport they are involved in, and if they are special enough to be able to market their likeness, autograph, etc., then they ought to be able to do so for their own benefit.

But this can get complicated. If Johhny Manziel was just as talented as he is, but was playing for Toledo, would his likeness be as valuable? If Johhny Football doesn't make his coming out party at Alabama on national television, but against Ohio, isn't it reasonable to assume that most of us wouldn't have noticed, or at least not to the degree that we were made aware of it by the sports media? Therefore, doesn't Texas A&M and the SEC have a claim that they contributed to the value of his memorabilia, thus being able to benefit as well from it's sale or appeal? I want to be clear here that I haven't formulated a particular opinion. The issues and complexity in a case like this make it difficult to do so in the time frame that this been a national story.

But the second issue is probably more cut and dried. Whether one agrees with the rule or not, it's pretty clear that if, and once again the operative word is if, Johhny Manziel took payment while still eligible, he violated NCAA rules. These are rules all student athletes and for the most part, boosters and fans, are well aware of. How can anyone associated with college football not remember the Ohio State tattoo debacle of a couple of years ago? You can bet Jim Tressel (former Ohio State head football coach) remembers.

Manziel has put his own eligibility and that of his team for post season play and championship opportunities at risk. Last time I checked, it took at least 26 players (I'm counting the kickers here) to win a game. Johnny Football wouldn't get far without blockers or someone to throw the ball to. And  unless I missed something, I haven't seen him line up on defense, a required part of the game if you're going to somehow stop the other team from scoring.

Do I agree with the NCAA rules? In many cases I don't. Do I think the NCAA can be arbitrary and inconsistent in its enforcement of the rules? In many cases I do. But just because you disagree with a rule doesn't give you the right to break it without risking penalties. Just because you think that 35 mile per hour  speed limit is a little on the low side doesn't mean you can go 50 and expect to be let off the hook. If you feel strongly about the speed limit, show up at a city or county council meeting, write a letter to a councilman or otherwise utilize the process to change the speed limit. But if you choose to drive in that municipality, then you have to obey the laws or pay the price. For Johnny Manziel, that means playing by the rules if he's going to play NCAA football, especially at its highest levels.

The last complicating factor here is that unlike baseball, basketball, golf, tennis or soccer, Manziel has no other place to play except in the NCAA because the NFL won't accept players until they have been out of high school for three years. So until the rules are changed, he's just left to accept and abide by the current set of NCAA bylaws. Is it right? Is it fair? Could it be better? Sometimes yes, sometimes no, but for now, it's what we have.

"Illegal Procedure - A PK Frazier Novel" by Kevin Krest now available in E-book formats at Smashwords.com and Amazon.com.

Follow me on Twitter @KevinKrest


PED's REVISITED, PGA PREVIEW and IT'S NFL AND NCAA FOOTBALL TIME

PED's Revisited: Today on ESPN's "The Herd", host Colin Cowherd made an interesting observation on the makeup of the list of 13 players suspended Monday for their ties to Biogenesis America. An overwhelming majority of the players are from the Dominican Republic. While making an excellent point about the players' motivation to do anything to escape that impoverished nation, Cowherd could have taken the conversation a bit farther. We have always had a fascination with how an island country with a population of just over 10 million could supply almost a fourth of all Major League Baseball players. Well, perhaps now we have at least a glimpse of why that is occurring. If PED's don't provide an unfair advantage, we wouldn't be so upset by the use of them by Barry Bonds, Roger Clements, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire and Alex Rodriguez, to name just a few who have obliterated the record books, seemingly with the assistance of banned substances. Therefore, doesn't it make sense to start to question the validity of these Dominican players' rise to the Major Leagues ahead of other athletes who have not been using PED's? Although we have no control over the PED laws in the Dominican Republic, we surely have jurisdiction over the unfair infiltration of Major League Baseball by juiced athletes that come from a system or a country where there is an obvious incentive to circumvent the rules. I'm not saying there are not a lot of worthy Dominican players, but if they're worthy, let them earn their roster spots without the use of PED's.

PGA Tournament Preview: It's no secret to readers of this blog that I am a big proponent of Tiger Woods. Given his performance last week on a major tournament-like venue with narrow fairways, long rough and fast greens, it makes sense to make him the favorite this week. Of course, his four other tournament victories and two top tens in majors contribute to that line of reasoning. But there are some other players who should be near the top of the favorite list, as well. We can start with Phil Mickelson, The Open Championship winner and runner-up at the U.S. Open. Oak Hill, the site of this week's tournament, is likely to play more like a U.S. Open venue, given that it's hosted multiple national championships. Players that can go long, but keep the ball in the fairway will have a big advantage this week. Tiger, with his three wood and long iron stingers fits that mold. But since taking his driver out of the bag, so does Phil. I don't make much of his 21st place finish last week at Firestone. After all, after Tiger's 61 on Friday, everyone else was playing for second place. However, Phil played pretty well on the weekend and could be in the mix come Sunday at Oak Hill. I also like Luke Donald, still looking for that elusive major. Countryman Justin Rose's U.S. Open triumph at Merion earlier this summer has to have Donald wondering when he'll be able to pull one off. The reason Donald comes to mind is because he can hit his driver straight. Why he hasn't contended in more majors is a mystery to me. Zach Johnson has also been playing well and he quietly snuck into fifth place at Firestone with a 68 - 67 on the weekend.  Among some other top players, Matt Kuchar and Keegan Bradley are worth mentioning. Both can hit the ball straight and long, and of course Bradley already has one PGA win under his belt. At the end of the day, I think it's Tiger's to lose. If he plays well, someone else will really have to have a special tournament to beat him. It's been five years since his last major, and I predict that drought will come to an end on Sunday, quieting the "Tiger's not back yet" talk.

It' Football Time: Whether it's college or pro, it's time for some football. I'm not big on preseason games and rarely watch one. So for me, we still have almost three weeks left until any real action. As a Virginia Tech Hokie, the season couldn't kick off in a more challenging fashion, having to watch to see if my team can stay with defending national champion and preseason number one Alabama. The Hokies aren't ranked, so apparently that challenge will be as daunting as any in recent years. I'll weigh in on this one in more detail as game day approaches. I'm currently working on my own Top 25 and I wouldn't be surprised if you don't see some big surprises.

As far as the NFL goes, my Redskins' fate is seemingly in the hands of those responsible for the recovery of Robert Griffin III's injured and repaired knee. I'm also working on my predictions for the season, which I'll release division by division over last couple of weeks in August. For now, though, we'll have to be satisfied with what might be and with who might not play.

Monday, August 5, 2013

Back to the Blog - A-Rod, Tiger and Johnny Football

Back to the Blog: I've taken some time off from the blog to complete and publish "Illegal Procedure - A PK Frazier Novel". It's about a sportscaster and covers over twenty years, from the highs of success to the lows of scandals. It's available at www.smashwords.com and www.amazon.com in E-book formats. Read and enjoy!

A-Rod, A-Rod, A-Rod: Although twelve other players were given suspensions for their involvement with the Biogenesis of America clinic in South Florida, the totality of their punishment is dwarfed by the media attention devoted to Alex Rodriguez of the New York Yankees. And I guess given his outrageous contracts and ability to so far escape punishment for admitted PED use, it probably should. My big problem with it all is that as many alleged violations as he's committed, he still has a case to make that he's a first offender. I know that point of view will probably prompt criticism, but I didn't agree to the rules that baseball and the players' union established. My personal opinion is that all PED users should be banned for life, just like gamblers. But that wasn't the agreement. So you can't have it both ways. Bud Selig wants to say, "Well, this is really bad, so we'll throw the book at him." However, if you'd wanted to throw the book at someone, then you needed to put the book throwing into the collective bargaining agreement under section 23, paragraph 4, "PED's, book throwing at users", or something like that. Considering the way Major League Baseball mishandled this from the beginning, I think, unfortunately, that A-Rod has a point. I still maintain that through their tolerance of the issue until it became to big to ignore, MLB not only benefitted from PED use in the post-strike era, they actually encouraged it. Now we have what we have, an entire generation of otherwise gifted athletes like Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa who just had to get better, even though great was probably good enough. Even those that were deserving of the Hall of Fame prior to their PED use will never get in, a circumstance for which MLB is partially responsible. I don't have a problem with A-Rod fighting this to the end. After all, it's his career and his income at stake. For me, it's just something to write about.

Johnny, Johhny, Johnny: Heisman Trophy winner Johhny Manziel is a runaway train, and Texas A&M coach better pull the air brakes or stop stoking the engine. The only way to get this kid's attention will be to sit his spoiled you know what on the bench until he gets with the program. Football is a team game, even in the NFL, the next stop for Johnny Football, if he's lucky. And right now, I don't see much of a team focus for the guy who should be the leader. Was I 20 and in college, partying when I could and hoping to make it through class? Sure. But I wasn't a scholarship athlete, a quarterback no less, on a top ten football team. The only person hurt when I had to show up for a test with too little sleep and the taste of beer from the night before in my mouth was myself. For Johnny Manziel, it's not that simple. In addition, if he doesn't come clean and ends up playing in games that he is later ruled ineligible for, he's depriving 84 other scholarship athletes of making it to bowl game, or even worse for years to come. So as far as I'm concerned, he's a selfish spoiled brat whose enabler is named Kevin Sumlin. Come on Kevin, teach the kid a lesson and see if he's capable of finally learning.

Tiger, Tiger, Tiger: Okay, let's see what Tiger has done this year so far: 11 events, 5 wins, 2 other top tens, both in majors. Really? Do people not understand how remarkable that record is? Sure, no majors, but he did win the Players, by most considered the men's fifth major. His efficiency is remarkable, not to mention his golf. At the tender age of 37, he is only three wins away from matching Sam Snead's career win total of 82, most of which were against fields where there were no more than four or five players with a realistic chance to win. Nothing against Snead, a terrific golfer, but really now. The record that Tiger is about to set has almost no chance of ever being touched. He can realistically put up close to 100 wins before he's finished. To put it in perspective, Phil Mickelson, the second best golfer of the generation, has managed to capture 42 wins and 5 majors. That's an unbelievable career, and it's barely half Tiger's victories and a third of his majors. And get this, Tiger has done it in 304 events to Phil's 484. Tiger's winning percentage is an amazing .260. Heck, that's a decent major league lifetime batting average. Tiger is teeing it up against between 70 and 156 players every week, and manages to come out on top 26% of the time. And this year it's a staggering 45%. The player considered the best of all time, Jack Nicklaus, teed it up 594 times and won 73 times with 18 of those in major championships. His winning percentage? 12%. That's right. The greatest of all time with a winning percentage less than half that of Tiger Woods. Now to be fair, Jack probably had 50 or so ceremonial starts late in his career, so let's give him 540 competitive starts. Wow! We're up to a whopping 14%. You see where I'm going with this, don't you? Greatest of all time is Tiger Woods. Hands down. No comparison, except in the majors, and Jack didn't play against the world. There were very few international players outside of Gary Player and Tony Jacklin that could realistically compete for major championships. Jack's competitive landscape was a great deal narrower than Tiger's, and I know, because I've been watching it all since 1962.  Case closed.