TIGER WOODS LEADS AMERICANS TO ROYAL MELBOURNE IN PRESIDENT'S CUP MATCHES

On paper, this week’s President’s Cup duel between the Americans and a squad of International golfers would appear to be a major mismatch. Beyond the Internationals having home course advantage at Royal Melbourne Golf Club in Australia, there aren’t many numbers working in their favor. Despite being without top ranked Brooks Koepka, the Americans still have an average Official World Golf Ranking of 12. 25. The Internationals only boast two golfers inside the top 20 and an average of slightly over 40. Ten of the Americans have better rankings than the best International player, number 18 Adam Scott. The lowest ranked U.S. player for captain Tiger Woods is number 23 Matt Kuchar, who is ranked higher than ten of the players who will tee it up for captain Ernie Els’ International team.

Of course, the matches aren’t played on paper, but instead on a golf course with grass, higher grass, sand and water. Even though there appears to be a huge discrepancy in the players’ rankings, all 24 are in the top 63 in the world. Looking at the randomness of match play tournaments gives some insight into how little disparity there is between number 4 (Dustin Johnson) and number 63 (Haotong Li). Perhaps the biggest disadvantage Els faces is the inexperience of his team. He has seven President’s Cup rookies and it will be a challenge for him to sprinkle them throughout the competition to ensure that his veterans have some significant contributions.

Eleven of the twelve Americans played in last week’s Hero Challenge, Tiger Woods’ charity event in the Bahamas. Only Dustin Johnson sat it out, nursing an injury in hopes of being 100% in Australia. The limited field tournament ended Saturday, after which Tiger and his team took off for Down Under. No International team members were included in the tournament, so if you’re looking for an advantage for the underdogs, jet lag might be one of them. The other major benefit for Ernie Els is the golf course. Many of the Internationals are familiar with the venue, given the closer proximity to the Australian and Asian players on the team.

In 1998, the first time this event was played outside the United States, the Internationals dominated what to that date was one of the best teams to ever be assembled in international team play. The Americans never contended and lost 20 1/2 - 11 1/2. Could we see a similar result this time? Anything is possible, but here are some thoughts about what will contribute to the final outcome.

Tiger Woods as playing captain: In November, Tiger picked himself to be part of his President’s Cup team, the first time since Hale Irwin in the inaugural playing of this event in 1994 that the U.S. has had a captain teeing it up. After his victory at the Zozo Championship in October, the first PGA Tour event held in Japan, he really had very little choice but to include himself on the squad. Woods will have plenty of help with the details as former captains Fred Couples and Steve Stricker will be joined by Zach Johnson as assistant captains. Look for the 82 time winner to play the four-ball matches (more popularly known as best-ball) and sit out the foursomes (alternate shot). All players will participate in the singles matches on the final day.

Different schedule than the Ryder Cup: I believe one reason the Americans have had more success in the President’s Cup than they have in the Ryder Cup is the schedule. The matches are played over the course of four days, instead of the three days in the Ryder Cup. There are also an additional two matches in the President’s Cup, which means team depth comes more into play as it’s more difficult to hide or sit players that aren’t playing well.

Royal Melbourne Golf Club: The green complexes are big and the surfaces are undulating, making it important to place approach shots on the correct side of the hole. If the Internationals really do have a home course advantage, this is where it will be manifested. In addition, captain Ernie Els and his staff have control of the course setup, so he should be able to give his team a better chance at victory.

The players: There is little doubt that the Americans have a much better, deeper and more experienced team. Ernie Els will need to lean on his veterans. If the first round pairings are any indication, he will be doing just that. Adam Scott, Marc Leishman, Louis Oosthuizen, Hideki Matsuyama and Adam Hadwin will all be in action. Each of them are paired with a rookie member of the team. If the Internationals can keep it close the first couple of days, look for the Americans to start to feel the pressure. If not, this will be a runaway win for the United States.

Jet Lag: Today’s professional golfers are very familiar with international play and travel, but leaving on a Saturday evening and playing at a high level four days later can be a challenge. Last year, I believe fatigue played a big role in the American’s poor showing in Ireland during the Ryder Cup. Coming on the heels of a brutal FedEx playoff push with no, for which many of the Europeans were not qualified, was a huge factor. Perhaps the less congested fall schedule will find a more rested American team in Australia, but it could still be something that gives an overwhelmed International team a way to close the gap.

Conclusion: I look for the Americans to jump out to an early lead and hold on for the duration of the week. Despite some mitigating factors I’ve mentioned, the U.S. is just too strong and experienced for the Internationals. Tiger will surely have his team well-prepared and assuredly matched up to get the most out of their abilities.

Prediction: U.S. 18 International 12

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

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