COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL PREDICTIONS

It’s hard to believe that with 39 bowl games including 78 teams that an eligible team could find a way to get left out. Leave it to Toledo from the Mid-American  Conference to be the one to get to be home for the holidays. Of course, they may have been lobbying to stay out of the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl in the garden spot of Boise, Idaho. We’ll never know of course, but if some Toledo offensive lineman tweets pictures from the beach in St. Somewhere, well, maybe we’ll have our answer.

For 74 other teams that aren’t competing for a national title, there are a variety of motivations for playing in a December or January game. Whether it be the extra practices to prepare for the 2020 season, bragging rights in the recruiting wars, the chance to play underclassmen or just to work on their tans, they’ll all be lining up with a chance to end the season with a victory. While a handful of games actually have some level of national interest, most are marginally compelling and are little more than programming content for ESPN, which actually owns and operates 14 of these games through its ESPN Events division.

Predicting these games is college football’s version of playing roulette and craps, all rolled into one. The roulette for the luck and craps for the quality of play. Okay, maybe that’s not fair, but it does tend to be accurate. Last year’s bowl games, including the College Football Playoffs, had an average margin of victory of 17 points, with 16 games decided by one score or less.  I’m just the messenger.

December 20

Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl

Buffalo (7 - 5) 31 vs. Charlotte (7 - 5) 37: This game is sponsored by Elk Grove Village, the nation’s largest industrial park. I have no idea what a football game played in a 15,000 seat soccer/cricket stadium in a tourist country has to do with domestic manufacturing, but it looks like a creative way for the managers to justify a pre-Christmas vacation where the 80 degree weather and beaches beat the hell out of whatever is happening in the Chicago area. It makes me feel good about my marketing degree.

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl

Utah State (7 - 5)  31 vs. Kent State (6 - 6) 20: Here’s another game played in a soccer stadium, this one with  an overwhelming capacity of 20,000. Are there going to be goal posts or soccer goals in place? Do you have to run into the goal for a touchdown? How will extra points work? Kent State represents the MAC, which had  an abysmal 14 - 34 non-conference record, against Mountain West member Utah State, whose conference ran up a 31 - 18 record outside the league. In addition, I heard a rumor that next year’s event will be called the Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco State Bowl.

December 21

New Mexico Bowl

Central Michigan (8 - 5) 28  vs. San Diego State (9 - 3) 34: Another MAC team shows up here, this time it’s the loser of the conference championship game, against the team that finished second in their division of the Mountain West. The purpose of this game is to incent you to make a visit to the great city of Albuquerque. First, you have to watch the game. Second, you have to figure out how to spell “Albuquerque”.

FBC Mortgage Cure Bowl

Liberty (7 - 5) 24 vs. Ga. Southern (7 - 5) 27: The 25,500 seat Exploria Stadium, another soccer venue, will be the site for this game. Really? Orlando has two football stadiums but for some reason they mustn’t be sufficient.  In all seriousness, this game benefits the fight against cancer and celebrates its survivors.  There is a pre-game block party and cancer tribute march featuring survivors and other supporters that will end at the stadium. 

Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl

SMU (10 - 2) 38 vs. Florida Atlantic (10 - 3) 31: FAU head coach Lane Kiffin has accepted the same job at Ole Miss, so he won’t be coaching in this game. It really doesn’t matter, as SMU is the better team anyway. Of course, it helps FAU to be playing a bowl game on their home field. What a great reward for a good season, staying home for your bowl game. I guess it could be worse. They could have had to play in Boise.

Camellia Bowl

Florida International (6 - 6) 31 vs. Arkansas State (7 - 5) 35: This game is played in the garden spot of Montgomery, Alabama. I’m pretty sure kids grow up, throw the ball around in the back yard and dream of one day earning a trip to the Camellia Bowl, played in the historic Cramton Bowl. It really conjures images of Pasadena on January 1, doesn’t it? Actually, Arkansas State liked it so much in 2017 that they’re coming back again. Go figure.

Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl

(19) Boise State (12 - 1) 30 vs. Washington (7 - 5) 27: This is an interesting game that matches Washington’s departing coach, Chris Petersen, against his former team that rose to prominence under his direction. I’m certain that story line will tend to overshadow the game itself. I look for Boise to overwhelm the Huskies, as they look to turn a chip on their shoulders into victory over a Power Five program.

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

(20) Appalachian State (12 - 1) 37 vs. UAB (9 - 4) 27: Appalachian State is one of the great stories in college football, but so is UAB. Following the 2014 season, UAB shut down the program for two seasons, only to re-emerge for the 2017 campaign. In their first year back, they won the Conference USA championship and played in the Bahamas Bowl. Since entering the FBS subdivision in 2015, Appalachian State has qualified for a bowl game every year, winning each time. They’ve also won the last four Sun Belt titles.

December 23

Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl

UCF (9 - 3) 34 vs. Marshall (8 - 4) 27: After a couple of years of undefeated play, UCF came back down to earth this season and is nowhere near the national championship discussion. At least they get to make an hour trip to Tampa for a bowl game. Will they be riding lawnmowers down I-4 to get to the game? I sure hope so.

December 24

SoFi Hawaii Bowl

Hawaii (9 - 5) 38 vs. BYU (7 - 5) 30: Hawaii is another team to get a home bowl game.  There really isn’t a nicer place in the United States to spend Christmas, so I’m not sure if the Rainbows are all that upset. Between trips to the beach and gazing at bikini clad swimmers, BYU will try to squeeze in a football game. Focused? Probably not.

December 26

Walk On’s Independence Bowl

La. Tech (9 - 3) 30 vs. Miami (6 - 6) 27: The year started with debacle of a coaching change for Miami and could end with a devastating loss for the Hurricanes. I just don’t see Miami coming into this game with much motivation. The Bulldogs get to head about an hour west on I-20 for the game. This could get ugly and be another black mark on a dismal season for the ACC Coastal.

Quick Lane Bowl:

Pittsburgh (7 - 5) 29 vs. Eastern Michigan (6 - 6) 20: With two weeks left in the season, Pittsburgh stood at 7 - 3 and still had a legitimate shot at the ACC Coastal title. After getting shut out by Va. Tech and losing to a mediocre Boston College team, they now head north to Detroit instead of the other direction. Ouch!

December 27

Military Bowl Presented by Northrup Grumman

North Carolina (6 - 6) 34 vs. Temple (8 - 4) 17: What started as a promising season for UNC with the return of head coach Mack Brown and an opening win over South Carolina, fizzled with six one possession losses. The silver lining is that the Tar Heels get to go to Annapolis, Maryland to play a bowl game on the campus of the Naval Academy. Temple quietly went 8 - 4 and at times exhibited a strong defense, but at other times they were scorched.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Michigan State (6 - 6) 24 vs. Wake Forest (8 - 4) 27:

This is a very interesting game, with a disappointing Michigan State taking on an overachieving Wake Forest team. The Deacons got off to 7 - 1 start, but stumbled down the stretch, losing three of their last four games. My hope is that they play the game in Yankees uniforms.

Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl

(25) Oklahoma State (8 - 4) 27 vs. Texas A&M (7 - 5)  37: If this game looks familiar to long-time football fans, it’s because these two schools were members of the Big 12 from 1996 to 2012. Texas A&M had one of, if not the toughest schedule in the country. They played three number one teams and also lost to number 5 Georgia and top 15 Auburn. The interesting thing about this game is that despite its name, is played in an indoor stadium. Hmmm.

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl

(22) USC (8 - 4) 27 vs. (16) Iowa (9 - 3) 23: I guess we can call this “Rose Bowl Light” with the game being played about 125 miles to the south of the “Grandaddy of them all”. USC coach Clay Helton’s job was rumored to be in jeopardy since last season, but it appears the window for the Trojans to have made a change has come and gone, especially since the early signing period for incoming players has already passed. I think USC has too much speed for the Hawkeyes.

Cheez-It Bowl

Air Force (10 -2) 34 vs. Washington State (6 - 6) 30: Air Force flew under the radar all season (see what I did there?) and Washington State seemed to fall apart after giving up a huge lead to UCLA. I’m not sure Cougars coach Mike Leach can get his team up for this one.

December 28

Camping World Bowl

(15) Notre Dame (10 -2) 27 vs. Iowa State (7 - 5) 21: I’m a bit surprised that Notre Dame fell to this bowl game. Nothing against the Camping World Bowl, but one year after making the playoffs the Irish only lose twice and can’t make a premier postseason classic. If Notre Dame comes to play, I don’t think Iowa State can stay with them.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

(10) Penn State (10 - 2) 34 vs.(17) Memphis (12 - 1) 24: This is a great lead-in game to the playoffs. Memphis completed a season-long battle to gain the Group of Five’s bid to a New Year’s Six game by defeating Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference’s championship game. Penn State had the misfortune of playing in the Big Ten East and recorded tough losses to Ohio State and Minnesota. The Nittany Lions should have too much on both sides of the ball for the upset minded Tigers.

College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Play Station Fiesta Bowl

(2) Ohio State (13 - 0) 31 vs. (3) Clemson (13 - 0) 30: I’m doing these games in chronological order so the playoff clashes seemingly appear to be buried in the holiday bowl-fest. This is seemingly the most balanced and best final four we’ve seen since the inception of the format.  Despite a couple of closer games late in the season, I’ve maintained that Ohio State is the top of a very talented heap of college teams. Although I believe Clemson is a great defending champion, my concern is that they just haven’t played anyone with close to the speed and depth possessed by Ohio State. Both teams are having to travel, so there’s no real advantage for either team on that front. This should be a terrific game, but ultimately I like the Buckeyes to prevail.

College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Chik-Fil-A Peach Bowl

(1) LSU (13 -  0) 37 vs. (4) Oklahoma (12 - 1) 31: Both of these teams have explosive offenses and aggressive defenses. Near unanimous Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow leads LSU while former Alabama national champion Jalen Hurts quarterbacks Oklahoma. I love to watch the Sooners, but their inability to clearly defeat Baylor twice concerns me in light of LSU”s domination of the SEC this season. This will be a close game, but Burrow’s ability and the Tiger’s defense should be able to do enough to get to the finals.

December 30

SERVPRO First Responders Bowl

Western Kentucky (8 - 4) 38 vs. Western Michigan (7 - 5) 17: Both of these teams will have to travel “westerner” to Dallas to face each other. Neither team had a particularly stellar season, but I’ll take Western Kentucky in this one.

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Mississippi State (6 - 6) 24 vs. Louisville (7 - 5) 38: It took a missed extra point by Ole Miss for Mississippi State to barely qualify for this bowl game. Meanwhile, Louisville was able to put together a decent season, albeit in a weak ACC. The Cardinals should fly in Nashville.

Red Box Bowl

California (7 - 5) 30 vs. Illinois (6 - 6) 23: In the underrated and deep PAc-12, Cal was able to forge a pretty good season. Similarly, Illinois emerged from the brutal  Big Ten to get into only their second bowl game since 2011. There was some inconsistency for the Illini with a big win over Wisconsin, but later  a lopsided loss to a weak Northwestern team.

Capital One Orange Bowl

(9) Florida (10 - 2) 37 vs. (24) Virginia (9 - 4) 20: I don’t see any way that Virginia can stay with Florida. The Cavaliers struggled to get to the ACC championship where they were trounced by Clemson. It’s a shame that Notre Dame didn’t get a shot at this game.

December 31

Belk Bowl

Virginia Tech (8 - 4) 29 vs. Kentucky (7 - 5) 27: Va. Tech flexed its defensive muscle down the stretch after a shaky start. In winning their last three games, Kentucky’s offense came to life. It should be an interesting final game for famed Va. Tech defensive coordinator Bud Foster.

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

Florida State (6 - 6) 24 vs. Arizona State (8 - 4) 27: I’m sure many people are surprised that Florida State, in a season where they fired head coach Willie Taggert, made it to a bowl game. Second-year head coach Herm Edwards has turned around the Arizona State program and I’m certain they will be prepared for the ‘Noles.

Auto Zone Liberty Bowl

(23) Navy (10 - 2) 28 vs. Kansas State (8 - 4) 24: Navy can be tough to play if you don’t see their style of offense on a regular basis. The Midshipmen are coming off a beat down of Army that completed a season during which their only losses were to top 20 teams Memphis and Notre Dame.

NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl

Wyoming (7 - 5) 37 vs. Georgia State (7 - 5) 27: I really can’t admit to knowing much about these teams. Furthermore, I can’t admit to really caring, either.

Valero Alamo Bowl

(11) Utah (11 - 3) 30 vs. Texas (7 - 5) 21: Against Oregon, Utah looked like a racehorse struggling to get out of the starting gate, then gets pinned against the rail. They just never seemed to be able to get going. The same could be said for  Texas’ entire season. If the Longhorns lose this game, their head coach Tom Herman will most likely begin the 2020 campaign as one of the first coaches on the hot seat.

New Years Day

Vrbo Citrus Bowl

(14) Michigan (9 - 3) vs. (13) Alabama (10 - 2): This is one of the most intriguing games of the bowl season. It’s hard to imagine either of these intense coaches not playing to win. For Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh, he needs an impressive win to set himself up for a strong, perhaps job-saving 2020.

Outback Bowl

(18) Minnesota (10 - 2) 27 vs. (12) Auburn (9 - 3) 24: In another compelling Big  Ten - SEC matchup, Auburn will be looking to build on their big victory over Alabama in the Iron Bowl. Minnesota is coming off a very successful, yet a bit of a disappointing season during which they couldn’t finish with a Big Ten West title. This is one of a handful of games I have circled on my schedule. I’ll pick with my heart here, pulling for Minnesota.

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual

(6) Oregon (10 - 2) 31 vs. (8) Wisconsin (10 - 3) 27: If it wasn’t for a big stumble against Arizona, Oregon might be preparing for a playoff game against LSU. Oregon has the one thing that is kryptonite to Wisconsin’s defensive Superman: speed. The Ducks present real issues for the Badgers, who will be forced to rely on running back Jonathan Taylor to control the ball and keep Oregon’s high powered offense off the field.

Allstate Sugar Bowl

(5) Georgia (11 - 2) 24 vs. (7) Baylor (11 - 2) 27: Georgia’s loss to South Carolina is still a mystery to me. I was in the stands when South Carolina was dominated in the second half by Tennessee and just don’t understand how the Bulldogs let the Gamecocks get the better of them. Baylor’s only blemishes were against playoff participant Oklahoma. I don’t think Georgia has enough offense to win this one.

January 2

Ticket Smarter Birmingham Bowl

Boston College (6 - 6) 24 vs. (21) Cincinnati (10 - 3) 34: This game matches a barely bowl eligible Boston College from the worst Power Five conference against a good Cincinnati team from the best Group of Five conference. Hmmm...

Tax Slayer Gator Bowl

Indiana (8 - 4)28 vs. Tennessee (7 - 5) 31: Indiana had perhaps the most underrated seasons in college football.  They posted eight wins for the first time since 1993 and for only the sixth time since 1945. They will be looking for  their first bowl win in five tries since 1990. And all of this while playing in perhaps the toughest division in the Power Five. Since one of my daughters attends Tennessee and these picks are such guesses, I’ll go with the Vols.

January 3

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Ohio (6 - 6) 27 vs. Nevada (7 - 5) 38: Played on the blue turf of Boise State, this game definitely feels like a parting gift for the loser on a game show. In case you haven’t noticed, I have a distinct anti-MAC bias this bowl season.

January 4

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Southern Mississippi (7 - 5) 40 vs. Tulane (6 - 6) 34: This game is played in Fort Worth, which of course should be obvious by the name of the bowl. Will anyone even care about this game by the first weekend in January? Doubtful.

January 6

Lending Tree Bowl

Louisiana (10 - 3) 37 vs. Miam, OH (8 - 5) 34: Is it over yet? Mercifully, it is.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com .  Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.