After a long season, we come down to this, the final
weekend. There are official championship games, and there are games that could
end up being championship match-ups. But one thing is for sure, when the dust
settles, we'll have our two participants in the BCS title game.
Last week: 15 - 8
Overall: 205 - 67
(20) Duke (10 - 2) 20 vs. (1)
Florida State (12 - 0) 34, ACC Championship Game, Charlotte, NC: All the
pressure is on Florida State, and if Duke drew better, they might have a bit of
a home field advantage. But despite having a great season due in part to a
favorable schedule, the Blue Devils haven't faced anyone close to what the
Seminoles will throw at them tonight. Duke was held to 13 points by Virginia Tech,
the closest talent on defense that they faced. The Blue Devils gave up 30 to Miami
and 25 to North Carolina down the stretch. Otherwise, after giving up big
totals to Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh in their two losses, Duke had played very
good defense. But Florida State brings an entirely different challenge. Given
that a spot in the BCS championship is on the line for the 'Noles, they may
start out a little tight, giving Duke a chance. But in the end, talent should
win out here.
(2) Ohio State (12 - 0) 24 vs. (10)
Michigan State (11 - 1) 27, Big Ten Championship Game, Indianapolis, IN:
Ohio State owns the longest winning streak in the country at 24, but Michigan
State has the nation's fourth ranked defense and an eight consecutive wins of
their own. I've liked Michigan State all season, and I believe the Buckeyes'
weak schedule will hurt them in this game. The Spartans are physical and capable
of moving Ohio State around. Coach Urban
Meyer's team's two biggest wins of the season have since been minimized, as
Northwestern finished below .500 and Wisconsin finished a disappointing 9 - 3.
My upset picks haven't been panning out recently, but I've liked Michigan State
all year and I like them tonight to throw the BCS into one-loss team chaos.
(5) Missouri (11 - 1) 30 vs. (3) Auburn (11 - 1) 27, SEC Championship Game,
Atlanta, GA: Auburn needs to come down from the exhilarating victory over
Alabama in the Iron Bowl last week. Missouri needs to continue its fine play
that left them four points from a perfect season. For me, this game's a tossup
and will come down to whether Missouri's defense can contain Auburn's potent
offensive attack. Both teams will benefit from playing inside at the Georgia
Dome. I've made the mistake of picking against Missouri and have continually
paid the price. I believe the magic may run out for Auburn this afternoon, so
I'm picking tails and going with Missouri.
(17) Oklahoma (9 - 2) 24 at (6)
Oklahoma State (10 - 1) 30: This bedlam game probably doesn't have any
national championship implications, but it certainly does for the Big 12 title.
A win by Oklahoma State gives them the crown, while a loss eliminates them from
the race, turning the Baylor - Texas game into a de facto championship game.
Oklahoma just gets to play the spoiler in the whole thing, which should be just
a little more motivation for a big intra-state rivalry game. With the exception
of the West Virginia game, the Cowboys have played like potential national
champions. If they'd taken care of the Mountaineers like they should have, a
win today would probably put them in the BCS championship game against Florida
State. For now, though, they'll need to be satisfied with beating the Sooners
and going to a BCS bowl game.
(7) Stanford (10 - 2) 27 at (11) Arizona State (10 - 2) 31,
Pac-12 Championship Game: Arizona State may be the hottest team in the nation
and are looking for some revenge against Stanford. This time the Cardinal will
have to travel to the desert because of the Sun Devils' better conference
record. With the exception of their 63 points against an overmatched Cal team,
Stanford has had to rely on their defense to win. I don't think Stanford will
be able to keep up with Arizona State on the scoreboard, especially if the home
team gets up early.
(25) Texas (8 - 3) 37 at (9)
Baylor (10 - 1) 42: By the time these two teams kickoff, they may know what
the stakes are for this game. If the
Sooners win up in Stillwater, this game is for all of the marbles in the Big
12. If not, then it'll just be another Texas grudge match in the Big 12. Baylor
was flying high until getting shot down at Oklahoma State. Texas had a similar
game against the Cowboys. Otherwise, the Longhorns have played tough defense
since replacing their defensive coordinator after losses to BYU and Ole
Miss. I like Baylor in a shootout, but
the Bear offense needs to click, or Texas will leave Waco with a big win.
(16) UCF (10 - 1) 27 at SMU (5 - 6) 17: UCF, by virtue of Louisville's win over
Cincinnati, has clinched the American Athletic Conference crown and will be
making its first appearance in a BCS bowl game.
Therefore, this game doesn't matter in the conference race. In addition,
Northern Illinois' loss to Bowling Green takes any additional BCS implications
from this game. So, back to the game. SMU can cause UCF some trouble, but the
Knights should prevail, even with nothing to play for but another win. Their
pride is on the line in this game, plus the opportunity to perhaps finish with
a 12 - 1 record after playing and beating a quality team in a BCS bowl.
Utah State (8 - 4) 31 at (23)
Fresno State (10 - 1) 38, Mountain West Championship Game: Fresno State's porous defense finally
resulted in a loss last week, ending any chance for a BCS bowl game. Utah
State, despite a loss to Boise State, still managed to get into this game.
Since that loss, they've allowed just over ten points a game. No one's been
able to slow down Fresno State's attack, but the Aggies have a chance.
Unfortunately, I don't see them scoring enough to beat the Bulldogs.
Thursday Night:
(19) Louisville (10 - 1) 21 @ Cincinnati (9 - 2) 23:
A scheduling quirk had American Athletic Conference leader
UCF as the only team in the conference that Cincinnati didn't play this season.
If the Bearcats win over Louisville, it will make for an interesting
tiebreaker, but only if UCF stumbles against SMU on Saturday. In that case,
Cincinnati would need to finish higher than UCF in the final BCS rankings, no
guarantee given the strong season the Knights have had. But getting back to the
game, both teams have tough defenses, with Louisville sporting the second rated
defense in the FBS. Cincinnati has won six in a row after a disappointing and
inexplicable loss to South Florida, a team Louisville handled easily. However,
the Cardinals have struggled a little bit offensively the last couple of games.
Heisman trophy candidate Teddy Bridgewater, in what could be his last regular
season game, will need to click in order for his team to prevail. I like
Cincinnati to pull the mild upset, then wait to see if SMU can pull one of
their own.
Friday Night
MAC Championship Game, Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan:
Bowling Green (9 - 3) 20 vs. (14)
Northern Illinois (12 - 0) 24:
Northern Illinois has been led by senior QB Jordan Lynch,
who wants his team to make amends for last year's 31 - 10 drubbing by Florida
State in the Orange Bowl. The MAC Championship game is the next step in the
process to do that. But Bowling Green stands in the way and poses a stout
challenge. The Falcons have held their last four opponents to a total of 17
points and have not given up more than 14 points in any of their last seven
wins. Their main weakness on defense is against the rush, and Northern Illinois
can certainly run the football, especially Lynch, who leads the MAC in rushing
with over 1,700 yards. If the Huskies don't get the running game going,
however, Bowling Green will win this game. I'm a fan of the MAC, and despite
Northern Illionois' loss to FSU last year, they play a pretty good brand of football
in the conference. If I still have power, I'll definitely tune in to the game,
which I think will be close. This is a tough pick given Bowling Green's recent
performance, but I've watched Jordan Lynch make plays all season to keep NIU
unbeaten. I'll take the Huskies.
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