COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK FIVE PREDICTIONS

Last Week:

Straight-up:        18 - 10   64.2%

ATS:                   16 - 12   57.1%

Overall:

Straight-up:        68 - 19   78.2%

ATS:                   43 - 44   49.4%

Friday:

Duke (2 - 1) (0 - 0) 27 @ Virginia Tech (2 - 1) (0 - 1) (-2.5) 31: It looks like everyone in the ACC Coastal will be chasing Virginia for the division title. Va. Tech already has an early loss to Boston College and can’t afford another one if they’re going to contend. Both of these teams have a couple of wins over lesser competition, with Duke’s being a little more impressive. I still like the Hokies to put a game together with a young team.

(12) Penn State (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-7.0) 27 @ Maryland (2 - 1) (0 - 0) 21: These two teams looked impressive early but stumbled a bit before an off week. Penn State struggled in a tough win over Pittsburgh, while Maryland stubbed their toe in a loss to Temple. I believe Penn State just has too much for Maryland on both sides of the ball, but this could be a tight one.

Arizona State (3 - 1) (0 - 1) 27 @ (15) California (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-5.0) 24: The Pac-12 is emerging as a pretty tough and deep conference. Cal’s upset win over Washington followed by a win at Ole Miss has the Bears in lofty territory. Arizona State got surprised by a vastly improved Colorado team last week, but I like what Herm Edwards is doing in the desert and think we might get an upset in the bay area tonight.

Saturday:

Texas Tech (2 - 1) (0 - 0) 17 @ (6) Oklahoma (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-27.0) 38: I believe Oklahoma has started the season as impressively as any team in the nation. Despite being improved, I don’t think Texas Tech can stay with the Sooners, especially in Norman.

Northwestern (1 - 2) (0 - 1)10 @ (8) Wisconsin (3 - 0) (1 - 0) (-24.0) 37: Wisconsin is in the same small group as Oklahoma. Northwestern hasn’t been impressive, but if they can slow down Jonathan Taylor perhaps they can keep this one close. That’s a big if that I just don’t think will happen.

Middle Tennessee (1 - 2) 10 @ (14) Iowa (3 - 0) (-24.5) 38: This shouldn’t be much of a problem for Iowa.

Rutgers (1 - 2) (0 - 1) 17 @ (20) Michigan (2 - 1) (0 - 1) (-27.5) 34: Michigan was totally overmatched at Wisconsin last week, putting head coach Jim Harbaugh squarely on the hot seat. The Wolverines should be able to take care of Rutgers, but after a couple of subpar performances, Michigan needs to find some offense if they are to give their faithful any hope for the rest of the season.

(23) Texas A&M (2 - 2) (0 - 1) (-23.5) 37 vs. Arkansas (2 - 2) (0 - 1) (Arlington, Texas) 16 : Arkansas has a deceptively decent record after getting scorched by a less than mediocre San Jose State team last week. Arkansas needs to make some quick improvements on defense, and I just don’t see it happening. A&M has lost to two top  seven teams and should be able to feel better around 3:00 pm Saturday.

Kansas (2 - 2) (0 - 1) 20@ TCU (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-15.5) 27:  Kansas has shown some improvement under new head coach Les Miles and TCU looks vulnerable after a loss to SMU last week. But TCU averages more yards on offense and gives up less on defense than Kansas, so I’ll stay with the Horned Frogs in a close game.

(1) Clemson (4 - 0) (2 - 0) (-26.5) 42 @ North Carolina (2 - 2) (1 - 0) 13: North Carolina showed some promise in the first two games under returning head coach Mack Brown. But the last two weeks have been disappointing with losses to Wake Forest and Appalachian State. With Clemson coming to town, the Tar Heels will have to take a huge step up in their quality of play.

Ole Miss (2 - 2) (1 - 0) 10 @ (2) Alabama (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-30.5) 38: Alabama hasn’t really played any big boy football teams yet, and this one barely qualifies. But it’s another conference game and will ease the Tide into the meat of their schedule. I don’t think Ole Miss can stay with Alabama.

(18) Virginia (4 - 0) 17 @ (10) Notre Dame (2 - 1) (-12.0) 27: This is Virginia’s big chance to make a statement with what is their best team of the last fifteen seasons. Notre Dame is coming off a tough loss to Georgia and if they can recover, they should win since they have the better team. Virginia’s offense has been a bit sluggish, so I look for the Irish to have a big defensive game.

(21) USC (3 - 1) (2 - 0) 27 @ (17) Washington (3 - 1) (0 - 1) (9.5) 24: USC is down to its third quarterback, but he was up to the task on the road at Utah last week. It will take another great effort against the Huskies and I’ll stay on the Trojan bandwagon. Their  speed is the difference.

Indiana (3 - 1) (0 - 1) 13 @ (25) Michigan State (3 - 1) (1 - 0) (-14.5) 31: After a controversial loss to Arizona State, Michigan State appears to have righted the ship. Indiana is solid but doesn’t have enough to beat the Spartans on the road.

Minnesota (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-1.5) 30@ Purdue (1 - 2) (0 - 0) 24: Minnesota hasn’t played much of a schedule so far, but they’ve shown consistent improvement under third year head coach PJ Fleck. I’ll take Minnesota to quietly go 4 - 0.

Towson (3 - 1) 20 @ (9) Florida (4 - 0) (-37.5) 41: Towson is a high level FCS program, so Florida needs to make sure they don’t sleep on the Tigers. I have a feeling that the Gators might be a bit surprised in this one.

Georgia Tech (1 - 2) 21 @ Temple (2 - 1) (-9.5) 34: Georgia Tech is having a tough time under first year head coach Geoff Collins. It won’t get much easier against a Temple team that took out a hot Maryland team.

Wake Forest (4 - 0) (0 - 0) (-7.0) 30 @ Boston College (3 - 1) (1 - 0) 21: Wake is another surprising team that has been mostly under the radar. The lone blemish on Boston College’s resume is a fourth quarter collapse against Kansas. I like Wake’s consistency and toughness on defense.

Mississippi State (3 - 1) (1 - 0) 27 @ (7) Auburn (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-11.0) 30: Auburn’s season-opening win over Oregon is looking better and they’re drubbing of Texas A&M made some believers in this team. Mississippi State beat a pretty good Kentucky team last week, so this one might be closer than the line indicates.

UConn (1 - 2) (0 - 0) 10 @(22) UCF (3 - 1) (0 - 0) (-43.5) 56: UCF’s last second loss at Pittsburgh took them out of the national championship equation, but they’re still in the hunt for the AAC title and the Group of Five New Year’s Day bowl bid. UConn is barely competitive n FBS, so I’ll go with the Golden Knights to light up the scoreboard at home today.

(24) Kansas State (3 - 0) (0 - 0) 24 @ Oklahoma State (3 - 1) (0 - 1) (-5.0) 27: This is a pretty even game with a stark contrast in styles. Kansas State has a stifling defense and Oklahoma State has an explosive offense.  I’ll flip a coin and go with the home team in a tight game.

Stanford (1 - 3) (0 - 2) (-4.0) 30 @ Oregon State (1 - 2) (0 - 0) 31: Stanford has been a big disappointment this season and they’ll be without their starting quarterback again on the road. This is a tough pick, but I’ll take the slight upset for the Beavers.

(5) Ohio State (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-18.0) 37 @ Nebraska (3 - 1) (1 - 0) 21:  As much as I like Nebraska, they just haven’t played well this year and Ohio State hasn’t missed a beat under new head coach Ryan Day. Last year, the ‘Huskers almost pulled the upset at Ohio State, but if they don’t clean up the mistakes it won’t be possible today in Lincoln.

NC State (3 - 1) (0 - 0) 27 @ Florida State (2 - 2) ( 1- 1) (-6.5) 30: I said it last week  and I’ll repeat it now: Florida State seems to have righted the ship recently. As much as I like NC State, the ‘Noles are moving in the right direction.

Kentucky (2 - 2)(0 -2) 24 @ South Carolina (1 - 3) (0 - 2) (-2.5) 27: Another close pick, with both teams trying to get on the board in the SEC. I’ve been well below par in SEC games, so I’ll flip a coin and go with the home team here.

Washington State (3 - 1) (0 - 1) 34 @ (19) Utah (3 - 1) (0 - 1) (-6.5) 30: Both of these squads are coming off disappointing losses. Washington State lost the wildest game I’ve ever seen, squandering a 49 - 17 third quarter lead in a 67 - 63 loss to UCLA. If I hadn’t watched it, I wouldn’t believe it. Utah couldn’t contain USC, so I’m taking Washington State to race past the Utes.

UCLA (1 - 3) (1 - 0) 27 @ Arizona (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-8.0) 38: UCLA was Cinderella last week at Washington State, but it’s going to turn midnight in Tuscon. The Bruins’ defense is just pathetic and I think Arizona will take advantage of it.  

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com .  Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.