COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK FOUR PREDICTIONS

After a decent week two, I rebounded this past weekend, going 26  - 4 for almost 87%. I broke even against the spread, which I hope is a trend in the right direction. There are a lot of compelling games this week as conference play begins in earnest, especially in those conferences that play nine league games.

Last week:

Straight-up                             26 - 4     86.7%

ATS                                        15 - 15   50.0%

Overall:

Straight-up                             50 - 9     84.7%

ATS                                        27 - 32   45.7%

Thursday:

Houston (1 - 2) (0 - 0) 30 @ Tulane (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-5.0) 27: Houston has been through a difficult season-opening stretch. They were competitive against a terrific Oklahoma team and challenged a tough Washington State squad to the end in a seven-point loss.  Tulane was able to hold Auburn to 24 points, but could only manage six points in the loss. I like Houston to break through.

(10) Utah (3 - 0)  (0 - 0) (-4.0) 37 @ USC (2 - 1) (1 - 0) 38: A week ago, this was shaping up as an early-season battle for supremacy in the Pac-12 South. But then USC stumbled against BYU and exposed the weaknesses in their true freshman quarterback. Utah’s defense, one of the best in the country, may do more of the same unless the Trojans make some adjustments in practice this week. But if this ends up in a track meet, my money is on USC.

Air Force (2 - 0) (0 - 0) 28 @ (20) Boise State (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-8.5) 24: Boise State has a couple of close wins against FBS teams while Air Force got a big victory over Pac-12 Colorado. I seem to be on a Friday night upset jag, so why not go for another one?

 

Southern Mississippi (2 - 1) 14 @ (2) Alabama (3 - 0) (-38.5) 56: It looks like it will be another few weeks before Alabama gets a real test, traveling to Texas A&M on October 12. Southern Miss gave up 38 against Mississippi State and 42 to Troy. Alabama will probably put up a bunch. if they want to.

(4) LSU (3 - 0) (0 - 0)(-23.0) 42 @ Vanderbilt (0- 2) (0 - 1) 17: This is potentially a great LSU team, and potentially a not so great Vanderbilt one. I’m not looking for an upset here.

Tennessee (1 - 2) (0 - 0) 14 @ Florida (3 - 0) (1 - 0) (-14.0) 30: Florida eked out an improbable comeback win against Kentucky last week, but shouldn’t need the theatrics this time. Tennessee is a long way from getting competitive in the SEC and this trip to the Swamp won’t be pleasant. 

(11) Michigan (2 - 0) (0 - 0) 20 @ (13) Wisconsin (2 - 0) (0 - 0) (-3.5) 31:  This is one of the premier games of the weekend. Both of these teams had the week off, Michigan to digest their near disaster against Army and Wisconsin to bask in a 61 - 0 thrashing of Central Michigan. Wisconsin is a slight favorite.

(23) California (3 - 0) 23 @ Ole Miss (2 - 1) (-3.5) 20: Kansas State ventured into the state of Mississippi last week and came away with a victory over Mississippi State, a game I correctly predicted. Now a Pac-12 team travels to Oxford with hopes of a similar result. I believe they’ll pull it off. 

Boston College (2 - 1) (-8.0) 31 @ Rutgers (1 - 1) 21: Boston College was looking fairly impressive through two and a half games, then Kansas rang up 28 consecutive points and handed the Eagles their first loss. Rutgers isn’t great, but it might be tough for BC to recover on the road against a team that is coming off an open week after a 31 - 0 loss to Iowa.

Michigan State (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-9.0) 20 @ Northwestern (2 - 1)  (0 - 0) 10: Michigan State is coming off a disappointing loss to Arizona State, so I look for them to shut down Northwestern in a defensive battle.

 

Miami, OH (1 - 2) 9 @ (6) Ohio State (3 - 0) (-39.5) 51: I’m not even sure why I’m bothering to comment on this one. 

(8) Auburn (3 - 0) (0 - 0)21 @ (17) Texas A&M (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-4.0) 27: Before the season started I thought this would be the big test for Texas A&M, and I’m still convinced of that. Auburn has been inconsistent on offense which could be a problem as they head into Kyle Field. I look for the Aggies’ defense to hold Auburn down and their offense to put plenty of points on the board.

(15) UCF (3 - 0)(-12.5) 27 @ Pittsburgh (1 - 2) 20: Pittsburgh is always tough at home and is coming off a pretty good performance in a 17 - 10 loss at Penn State. UCF is on a mission to try to crash the college football playoffs and a loss to Pitt would spoil any chances they have. 

(22) Washington (2 - 1) (-6.0) 30 @ BYU (2 - 1) 21: BYU has two overtime wins, but I don’t think they’ll be able to pull off another one against a refocused Washington team. Even though Washington lost to Cal, that loss may look much better by the end of the season.

SMU (3 - 0) 14 @ (25) TCU (2 - 0) (9.0) 27: SMU is improved, but TCU’s defense is strong as usual. SMU will be moving up in class after three Group of Five victories. Even though I have TCU covering here, I wouldn’t  be surprised to see SMU give them a battle in this Dallas Metroplex rivalry.

(18) Oregon (2 - 1)(0 - 0) (-10.0) 28 @ Stanford (1 - 2) (0 - 1) 20: Stanford has been disappointing since an opening week victory over Northwestern. Oregon just has too much offense for the Cardinal.

Old Dominion (1 - 1) 14 @ (21) Virginia (3 - 0) (-30.5) 42: Old Dominion gave Virginia Tech a tough game earlier in the season, but right now Virginia is playing at a higher level. 

Charlotte (2 - 1) 6 @ (1) Clemson (3 - 0) (-41.5) 48: The bus ride home will seem a lot longer than a couple of hours for Charlotte after taking on Clemson in Death Valley.

Oklahoma State (3 - 0)(0 - 0)27@ (12) Texas (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-5.0) 31: There are a lot of people jumping on the Oklahoma State bandwagon, but I like Texas despite the loss to LSU. It’ll be close, but the Longhorns should prevail at home.

(7) Notre Dame (2 - 0) 24 @ (3) Georgia (3 - 0) (-13.5) 34: This just isn’t a good matchup for the Irish. They’re vulnerable against the run and the Bulldogs are very effective on the ground. Still, it’s great to see these two teams playing this brief home and home series. The SEC needs all the non-conference Power Five wins they can get.

Colorado (2 - 1) (0 - 0)14 @ (24) Arizona State (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-7.5) 27: Arizona head coach Herm Edwards has done a great job in resurrecting the Sun Devil program. Colorado is improved, but Arizona State’s defense is tough.

UCLA (0 -3) (0 - 0) 21 @ (19) Washington State (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-18.5) 41: I have no idea what’s happening at UCLA, and from the looks of things, neither does head coach Chip Kelly. They’re terrible against the pass and Washington State should light up the scoreboard today. 

Louisville (2 - 1)(0 - 0) 24@ Florida State (1 - 2) (0 - 1) (-6.5) 30: It’s hard to believe that it wasn’t that long ago this game was meaningful on the national level. Not so much anymore. Florida State showed some signs of life at Virginia last week, so I’m going to give the ‘Noles some love at home.

West Virginia (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-5.0) 27@ Kansas (2 - 1) (0 - 0) 30: Both of these teams surprised me last week, so this is a tough one for me. I like what Les Miles has already done for the Jayhawks and I believe they’ll be pretty pumped up at home. I’m smelling upset.

Kentucky (2 - 1) (0 - 1)  27 @ Mississippi State (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-7.0) 24: I’m still not sure why Mississippi State is getting so much love. I think Kentucky is really good and the home team wasn’t impressive against Kansas State last week. I’m going with another road dog, or in this case a road cat, as in Wildcat.

San Jose State (1 - 1) 17@ Arkansas (2 - 1) (-20.5) 41: Arkansas appears to have found an answer at quarterback, finally benching SMU transfer Ben Hicks in favor of Texas A&M transfer Nick Starkel. The Hog faithful have been waiting for over a season for head coach Chad Morris to show some offensive firepower and the 55 points against Colorado State is a step in the right direction. 

South Carolina (1 - 2) (0 - 1) 20 @ Missouri (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-9.5) 31: Missouri had an opening hiccup against Wyoming but has rebounded nicely. South Carolina had a tough game against Alabama last week and teams don’t generally fare well following a game against the Crimson Tide. 

Nebraska (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-7.0) 34 @ Illinois (2 - 1) (0 - 0) 24: Nebraska let one get away a couple of weeks at Colorado, but should be able to handle an Illinois team that is coming off a loss to Eastern Michigan, one of the bottom 30 teams in the FBS. The ‘Huskers should be able to put up some points on the Illini.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com .  Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK THREE PREDICTIONS

Last Week:

Straight-up                         24 - 5     82.7%

Against the Spread             12 - 17   41.3%

Not a bad week for the straight picks, but not so great against the spread. Of course, that’s only significant if you’re betting, which currently I am not. There are no ranked team matchups this week but there are some other interesting games on the slate.  

Friday (from an earlier post):

(20) Washington State (2 - 0) (-8.5) 38 @ Houston (1 - 1) 28: Houston’s early season schedule was an ambitious bid to bring some increased credibility to the Group of Five teams and conferences. Their first attempt was at Oklahoma and were clearly outclassed, although the Cougars played valiantly in defeat. Washington State has put up 117 points against weak competition, but their strength doesn’t bode well for Houston.

Kansas (1 - 1) 17 @ Boston College (2 - 0) (-21.0) 40: New head coach Les Miles has quite a job to rebuild Kansas, and it won’t get much easier in Boston. Last week’s loss to Coastal Carolina illustrates how far Les has to go. 

Saturday:

Arkansas State ((1 - 1) 20 @ (3) Georgia (2 - 0) (-33.0) 41: It would have been nice for Georgia to schedule a tougher opponent in the first three weeks, but we’ll find out next week how good they really are when they take on Notre Dame. But this week, the Bulldogs better pay attention to a team that can put up some big numbers. 

(6) Ohio State (2 - 0) (-15.5) 37 @ Indiana (2 - 0) 14: I wasn’t sold on the Buckeyes before the season, but they have barely missed a beat following the retirement of former head coach Urban Meyer, as evidenced by the way they dismantled a pretty good Cincinnati ream. Ryan Day has Ohio State playing at a high level and I don’t expect Indiana to pull the kind of upset that Purdue did last season. 

Pittsburgh (1 - 1) 20 @ (13) Penn State (2 - 0) (-17.0) 31: The ACC is hopelessly bad this season and could use s big win to help reverse the slide. Despite the rivalry fervor, Pitt isn’t close to Penn State in talent, although they are the best team that the Nittany Lions have played so far this season. I still think Penn State is overrated and this game will give me some more data to see if I’m on track with that. 

(21) Maryland (2 - 0) (-8.0) 42 @ Temple (1 - 0) 27: Maryland has been an offensive juggernaut to start the season. Temple put up 56 on FCS Bucknell that was 1 - 10 a year ago, so I’ll stay with the Terrapins. I’m surprised with the line in this game, which was most likely influenced by Temple’s margin of victory in their first game. Maryland is a big step up in class for the Owls. 

New Mexico (1 -- 0) 17 @ (7) Notre Dame (1 - 0) (-35.0) 49: Notre Dame has had a couple of weeks to figure out what happened defensively against Louisville. New Mexico probably won’t present too much of a challenge, one of the few breathers in an otherwise difficult schedule. Covering a five-touchdown spread is a different challenge.

(2) Alabama (2 - 0) (-25.5) 37 @ South Carolina (1 - 1) 17: This is Alabama’s first big-boy test of the season. South Carolina let North Carolina steal a win in week one, then pounded Charleston Southern last week. Alabama has looked just as strong and efficient as expected against Duke and New Mexico State. I’m not smelling upset here, but the Gamecocks might make it closer than many expect.

Stanford (1 - 1) 20 @ (17) UCF (2 - 0) (-6.5) 30: This will be a good test for UCF, although Stanford got exposed last week against USC. The Cardinal should have their starting quarterback in the lineup, unlike the last game and a half. Traditionally, west coast teams don’t travel east very well, so I’ll stick with the favorite here.

USC (2 - 0) (-4.0) 31 @ BYU (1 - 1) 24: It appears that USC won’t miss a beat after losing starting quarterback J. T. Daniels. True freshman Kedon Slovis looked terrific against Stanford and expect USC’s team speed to overwhelm BYU.

Arizona State (2 - 0) 24 @ (18) Michigan State (2 - 0) (-13.5) 23: I just have a feeling about this one. I know I just mentioned the difficulty west coast teams have in the east, but I like Arizona State’s defense. This is based pretty  much on a hunch, but I’m going with the Sun Devils in what would be a big win for the Pac-12.

(19) Iowa (2 - 0)(-2.0) 27 @ Iowa State (1 - 0) 13: Iowa State has been winning close games and Iowa has been winning because of a traditionally stifling defense. The Cyclones have only played a single game, one which they were lucky to pull out in overtime against middling FCS foe Northern Iowa. The line on this game is tighter than I think it should be, but it’s most likely based on the rivalry and the hangover buzz from last year’s Iowa State team.

Idaho State (1 - 0) 6 @ (11) Utah (2 - 0) (-36.5) 45: This shouldn’t be much of a problem for the Utes. Covering the big spread could be a stretch, but I like them to overwhelm Idaho State.

Kent State (1 - 0) 6 @ (8) Auburn (2 - 0) (-35.0) 42: Auburn has had slow starts in its first two games, so I think coach Gux Malzahn will be looking to make a statement against overmatched Kent State.

(9) Florida (2 - 0) (-8.5) 27 @ Kentucky (2  - 0) 24: Neither of these teams has been particularly impressive. Kentucky appears to be playing for a MAC title, with wins over Toledo and Eastern Michigan. Florida defeated Miami, Fla. in its first game, but the Hurricanes have since lost to UNC to take some luster off that win. I’m tempted to take Kentucky, but I’ll stick with Florida to pull out a squeaker.

Lamar (1 - 0 - 1) 10 @ (17) Texas A&M (1 - 1) (-43.5) 48: Texas A&M struggled last week against number one Clemson after beating hapless Texas State in week one. Lamar was in the FCS playoffs last season so they won’t be a pushover. I don’t see the Aggies covering the spread here.

(1) Clemson (2 - 0) (-27.5) 38 @ Syracuse (1 - 1) 10: The last time Clemson lost a regular season game was two years ago to Syracuse. Can the Orange catch lightning in a bottle again? Given the way Syracuse was thumped by Maryland last week, I seriously doubt it. Clemson just has too much this time around.

Northwestern State (0 -2) 6 @ (4) LSU (2 - 0) (-51.0) 59: LSU showed last week that they may have finally found the offensive firepower to go with a solid defense. Northwestern State won’t offer much resistance.

Hawaii (2 - 0) 27 @ (23) Washington (1 - 1) (-21.5) 38: Hawaii is already 2 - 0 against the Pac-12 so far this season, but neither Arizona nor Oregon State is quite in the same class as Washington. The Huskies are coming off a tough loss to Cal that struck a blow to their title hopes. Hawaii will have to play better defense to have a chance in this one.

Florida State (1 - 1) 20 @ (25) Virginia (2 - 0) (-7.5) 30: Florida State’s head coach Willie Taggert is on a very hot seat after losing four of five games down the stretch last season and opening this year with an ugly comeback loss to Boise State and an overtime win by one point over La.- Monroe. Virginia is now the favorite to win the ACC Coastal and is poised to make a statement this weekend.

(5) Oklahoma (2 - 0) (-22.5) 37 @ UCLA (0 - 2) 13: UCLA has lost to two Group of Five teams to open the season, and now they have to really step up in class as they welcome Oklahoma to the Rose Bowl. The Sooners have looked outstanding on offense with Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts leading the way for a very speedy and talented offense. The defense also has a lot of speed and may be the reason Oklahoma contends for the national title.

(12) Texas (1 - 1) (-30.5) 51 @ Rice (0 - 2) 17: Texas will be looking to take out some frustration on Rice after giving up 45 point to LSU last week. Rice has little resistance to offer.

Portland State (1 - 1) 13 @ (22) Boise State (2 - 0) (-31.5) 31: Boise has scored a couple of close wins over Florida State and Marshall. They need to keep focused on FCS Portland State who I saw in person give Arkansas fits in week one. despite giving up a ton of points last season, Portland State has improved dramatically on defense. This one might be a lot closer than the oddsmakers have predicted.

Montana (2 - 0) 17 @ (15) Oregon (1 - 1) (-36.0) 56: Montana has dominated against their first two FCS opponents, but heading into Autzen Stadium on a Saturday night is an entirely different matter. Oregon lit up Nevada for 77 last week, so Montana might have a long day on defense.

N.C. State (2 - 0) (-7.0) 34 @ West Virginia (1 - 1) 17: West Virginia is struggling after the departure of head coach Dan Holgorsen.  They’ll be taking on a team that I think might be the most underrated in the ACC. Now that’s not saying much, since the ACC is so down this season.

Furman (1 - 1) 13 @ Va. Tech (1 - 1) (-21.5) 30: Furman is a solid FCS team with nothing to lose as they head into Lane Stadium. The Hokies are still struggling on offense and have an off week following this game as they prepare for the bulk of their ACC schedule. I look for Va. Tech to sputter, but still pull out a victory.

Kansas State (2 - 0) 31 @ Mississippi State (2 - 0) (-8.0) 27: Kansas State is averaging over 50 points a game, but that wasn’t against an SEC defense. But the positive is that Mississippi State’s defense doesn’t resemble an SEC caliber unit so far this season. I like the Wildcats in a big upset in Chris Klieman’s first season at Kansas State after building an FCS dynasty at North Dakota State.

TCU (1 - 0) (-2.0) 27 @ Purdue (1 - 1) 24: Purdue is on the upswing, but the difference in this one could be the TCU defense. I don’t believe Purdue will be able to put up six TD’s on the Horned Frogs like they did against Vanderbilt.

Texas Tech (2 - 0)(-2.0)34 @ Arizona (1 - 1) 37 : Arizona succumbed to a spread offense team in Hawaii in their first game, but I don’t think Texas Tech is hitting on all cylinders yet. I’ll take the home team in a mild upset.

Colorado State (1 - 1) 21 @ Arkansas (1 - 1) (-10.0) 27: Arkansas continues to have difficulty with Chad Morris’ offense. Mistakes and penalties hurt them against Ole Miss last week and that will need to improve if the Hogs are to avenge last season’s tough loss to the Rams.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com .  Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK THREE FRIDAY NIGHT PREDICTIONS

Last Week:

Straight-up                          24 - 5     82.7%

Against the Spread             12 - 17    41.3%

Not a bad week for the straight picks, but not so great against the spread. Of course, that’s only significant if you’re betting, which currently I am not. A couple of good Friday night games on tap, highlighted by Washington State traveling to Houston where the home team will be looking for a big upset over a Power Five contender.

Friday

:

(20) Washington State (2 - 0) (-8.5) 38 @ Houston (1 - 1) 28: Houston’s early season schedule was an ambitious bid to bring some increased credibility to the Group of Five teams and conferences. Their first attempt was at Oklahoma and were clearly outclassed, although the Cougars played valiantly in defeat. Washington State has put up 117 points against weak competition, but their strength doesn’t bode well for Houston.

Kansas (1 - 1) 17 @ Boston College (2 - 0) (-21.0) 40: New head coach Les Miles has quite a job to rebuild Kansas, and it won’t get much easier in Boston. Last week’s loss to Coastal Carolina illustrates how far Les has to go.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com .  Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.