COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK FOUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PREDICTIONS

Last Week:          21 – 5    80.7%

Overall:                72 – 14  83.7%

Thursday

Temple (2 – 1) 24 @ (21) South Florida (3 – 0) 34: South Florida finally looked like the team that they were expected to be prior to the season. I had thought Illinois might give the Bulls some problems, but Sough Florida’s offense is very good. Temple was the AAC champ last year, but it looks like the Bulls are the class of the league. There are still some pretty good teams in the league, like Memphis, Tulsa, Houston and Navy, so I still expect a battle for the title.

Friday

Virginia (2 – 1) 27 @ Boise State (2 – 1) 30: Virginia has already equaled their win total from last season, but a trip to Boise will put coach Mendenhall’s rebuilding process to the test. I believe the Cavaliers are better this year, but not improved enough to beat Boise State on the blue turf. The difference in this one will probably be Boise’s defense, which should be able to hold down Virginia’s offense enough for the Broncos to get the win.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK THREE PREDICTIONS

Last Week:          24 – 3  88.9%

Overall:                51 – 9  85.0%

After two plus weeks, I’m still at 85% on my picks. That’s not a bad number, but the tougher games start to increase, so I don’t expect to stay at that lofty level. One of the premier games originally scheduled for this week, Miami at Florida State, has been postponed due to Hurricane Irma. I wasn’t particularly looking forward to making that pick, so I’m off the hook for a while. Let’s see what I think will happen in the other twenty-seven games I’m predicting.

Air Force (1 – 0) 20 @ (7) Michigan (2 – 0) 24: I thought Michigan was over rated to start the season, but that was before I saw how well their defense is playing. They’ll be tested against the veer attack of Air Force, but the Wolverines’ defensive speed will probably match up well against the Falcons. This one might be closer than a lot of people think.

(9) Oklahoma State (2 – 0) 37 @ Pittsburgh (1 – 1) 24: Pittsburgh didn’t really give Penn State much of a scare last week and they face a team in Oklahoma State that’s probably pretty close talent-wise to the Nittany Lions. The Cowboys haven’t really been tested in their first two games and Pitt is a step up in class, but not the level that should give them a real chance to challenge in this game. Oklahoma State won in Stillwater last year, and I expect a similar outcome this time around.

(25) UCLA (2 – 0) 41 @ Memphis (1 – 0) 30: The biggest obstacle for UCLA in this game is the noon EDT/9:00 am PDT start. Memphis doesn’t have the defense to stop Bruin quarterback Josh Rosen’s passing attack, but the early morning sluggishness could do it for them. Look for UCLA to come out slowly but build some momentum like they did against Texas A&M. But this is also a little of a trap game for the Bruins, as they travel to Stanford next week for their Pac-12 opener.

(10) Wisconsin (2 – 0) 30 @ BYU (1 -2) 16: BYU continues a tough early season stretch of games with an offense that so far hasn’t been very productive. They welcome a stingy bunch that will make it difficult for the Cougars to consistently move the ball. Wisconsin has also shown enough offense to be a legitimate Big Ten contender, not a great thing for BYU.

(16) Virginia Tech (2 – 0) 34 @ East Carolina (0 – 2) 10: The clock’s ticking on Virginia Tech’s September 30 showdown with defending ACC and National Champion Clemson. In the past, East Carolina has dealt the Hokies some tough losses, but this Pirates team is just not very good. An opening loss to FCS James Madison followed by a drubbing by West Virginia prompted them to make a change at defensive coordinator. That’s not a great sign the week of the biggest game on their schedule.

SMU (2 – 0) 20 @ (20) TCU (2 – 0) 37: TCU’s defense appears to be back on track after stuffing Arkansas last week, but that required two goal line stands. SMU has put up big number in games against inferior competition, so it remains to be seen if the Horned Frogs will be tested this week. My guess is they will, but their size, speed and depth should give them the edge in the Metroplex Matchup.

(23) Tennessee (2 – 0) 27 @ (24) Florida (0 – 1) 23: I wasn’t sold on Florida to start the season and they didn’t disappoint by laying an egg against Michigan in the opener. Tennessee struggled against Georgia Tech and was lucky to get a win in that one, but at least they have an offense. Georgia is probably the class of the SEC East, but the winner of this one will at least be able to challenge the ‘Dogs. The loser will face an uphill climb, especially with their schedules.

Mercer (1 – 1) 10 @ (15) Auburn (1 – 1) 49: Why bother?

Army (2 – 0) 24 @ (8) Ohio State (1 – 1) 34: Ohio State has played two decent halves of football so far this season, with the other two extremely underwhelming. Army is coming off a couple of season opening wins following their win over Navy last season to break an insanely long losing streak to the Middies. They have nothing to lose in this one, while the Buckeyes can either come out fighting or flat. This could be a tough fight for Ohio State, but they should have too much offense for Army.

Oregon State (1 – 2) 17 @ (21) Washington State (2 – 0) 51: Oregon State is easily the worst team in the Pac-12, while Washington State, unlike last season, has come out firing on most, if not all, cylinders. This one could get very ugly before it’s over.

Tulane (1 – 1) 13 @ (2) Oklahoma (2 – 0) 31: After dominating Ohio State in the second half last week and jumping firmly into the playoff conversation, this is a good game for Oklahoma to be coming back to Norman to play. Even a lackluster, hangover performance will probably be enough to carry the Sooners past Tulane.

Colorado State (2 – 1) 20 @ (1) Alabama (2 – 0) 37: Although Alabama will win this game, it’s anything but a walkover for the Tide. Colorado State got jobbed by a Pac-12 officiating crew against Colorado and I’ll be interested to see if they get a Mountain West bunch to even the score at Alabama. Partisan officiating crews in inter-conference games are a very bad idea, and I hope the NCAA or whoever governs the assignment of officials reconsiders the practice. Either way, Alabama will win, but it might not be as easy as they think.

(12) LSU (2 – 0) 27 @ Mississippi State (2 – 0) 24: Mississippi State has scored 106 points against two lesser opponents, but could nonetheless put some pressure on the LSU defense, which hasn’t been tested so far. Those cow bells will be ringing loudly in Starkville Saturday evening and could serve to distract the Tigers a bit. Although I believe LSU to be the better team, this could be a struggle.

Georgia State (0 – 1) 10 @ (5) Penn State (2 – 0) 42: I can’t imagine the Nittany Lions stubbing their collective toes against Georgia State.

Samford (2 – 0) 13 @ (13) Georgia (2 – 0) 47: There shouldn’t be a lot of drama in this one as FCS Samford has struggled to win its first two games against other FCS teams.

(18) Kansas State (2 – 0) 31 @ Vanderbilt (2 – 0) 27: Before we scoff at Vanderbilt’s early season schedule, their first win came against Conference USA’s Middle Tennessee State, which went to Syracuse and beat the Orangemen last week. Is Vanderbilt building on a season ending win over Tennessee last year? A win against Kansas State sends a clear message that the Commodores may be a tough out in 2017. For the Wildcats, it’s about time they played a decent non-conference foe. For Vandy, this is the first of four consecutive games against teams currently ranked in the top 25.

(3) Clemson (2 – 0) 30 @ (14) Louisville (2 – 0) 24: This game went down to the wire last season, with Clemson pulling out a big win that ultimately gave them the ACC Atlantic title and cleared the path to the national championship. Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Lamar Jackson is back for Louisville, but it’s the defense for the Cardinals that looks a bit suspect. That’s not an issue for Clemson. I like the Tigers to win in an entertaining ball game.

Texas (1 – 1) 20 @ (4) USC (2 – 0) 31: Is Texas as bad as they looked against Maryland or as good as they looked against San Jose State? The answer is probably somewhere in between, which isn’t good enough to defeat USC, big winners over a good Stanford team last week. Trojan quarterback Sam Darnold looks sharp and Texas is having quarterback issues. I think that about says it all.

Fresno State (1 – 1) 17 @ (6) Washington (2 – 0) 37: Fresno State has lost to Alabama and beaten Incarnate Word. Washington should be able to take care of the Bulldogs, much like the Tide did in week one. But the Huskies need to start a little faster than they did against Rutgers to begin the season.

(19) Stanford (1 – 1) 27 @ San Diego State (1 – 1) 20: Coming off a tough loss to USC, Stanford will need to pay attention against the Aztecs. San Diego State beat Arizona State, another Pac-12 team last week and will pose some problems for the Cardinal. I’m looking for Stanford to bounce back on the road and put the Trojan defeat behind them.

Baylor (0 – 2) 27 @ Duke (2 – 0) 38: Baylor’s opening loss to Liberty was a stunner, but then they followed it up with a defeat by UT San Antonio. Things are really getting messy in Waco, and they’ll be traveling to surprising Duke, who upended Northwestern last week to stay unbeaten. I don’t see the Bears turning it around any time soon.

Notre Dame (1 – 1) 30 @ Boston College (1 – 1) 13: Notre Dame lost a squeaker to Georgia last week and then head coach Brian Kelly was a bit terse with a reporter following the game. The Irish just need to win to silence Kelly’s critics, but a tough schedule will make that increasingly more difficult. That means this game against a team they should beat is critical. Boston College got smacked around by Wake Forest last week, so the Irish should be able to get out of Beantown with a much needed W.

Purdue (1 – 1) 34 @ Missouri (1 – 1) 27:  I’m having trouble understanding why Missouri is favored by a touchdown in this one. Purdue took Louisville right to the end on a neutral field, while Missouri got smoked by South Carolina at home. Hmmm… I’m taking the Boilermakers in an upset.

Arizona State (1 – 1) 34 @ Texas Tech (1 – 0) 42: After losing to San Diego State last week, Arizona State’s head coach Todd Graham is definitely sitting on a very hot seat in Tempe. It’s hard to gauge how good Texas Tech is, but they’ll definitely put some points on the board. I don’t think the Sun Devils will be able to keep with the Red Raiders at home in Lubbock.

Ole Miss (2 – 0) 27 @ California (2 – 0) 31: California, picked by many to finish last in the Pac-12, is off to an impressive start. With two easy games to begin the season, Ole Miss has to head west to take on what is now a dangerous opponent. I’ve liked what I’ve seen so far from California and I’m unimpressed with the defense of Ole Miss.

Kentucky (2 – 0) 14 @ South Carolina (2 – 0) 27: South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp is quietly building a solid program. Kentucky has also shown some improvement, but they’ve been underwhelming against lesser competition so far this season. I don’t see the Wildcats putting up enough points on South Carolina’s defense to challenge the Gamecocks.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK TWO PREDICTIONS

Not as good a start as last seaon's 32 - 0 opening weekend, but still over 80% after week one. There were some incredible games, highlighted by Virginia Tech outlasting  West Virginia in a great match-up. Then there was the incredible comeback by UCLA, or meltdown by Texas A&M, depending on your perspective. The weekend ended on an overtime win by Tennessee over Georgia Tech in another comeback. I got two of those right, with the last one going against me. Things get tougher to predict this week with more head to head games involving top twenty five teams.


Last Week:  22 - 6  78.6%
Overall:       27 - 6  81.8%

Friday

(11) Oklahoma State (1 - 0) 51 @ South Alabama (0 - 1) 20: South Alabama was taken down pretty easily 47 - 27  by Ole Miss last week and Oklahoma State should be able to do at least as well. The Cowboys made scored early and often against Tulsa, a team I though might able to give them a tough game. This one could quickly get away from the Jaguars.

Saturday

(16) Miami @ Arkansas State: Cancelled

Cincinnati (1 - 0) 6 @ Michigan (1 - 0) 27: Michigan's defense was very impressive against Florida, but the Wolverines gave up a couple of defensive scores that made the final result look a lot closer than how the game played out. Cincinnati's offense was in the bottom six in the country last season and will need to show quick improvement to put anything on the board against Michigan.

Florida Atlantic (0 - 1) 13 @ (9) Wisconsin (1 - 0) 40: Florida Atlantic head coach Lane Kiffin had a rough debut against Navy and the competition goes up a notch at Wisconsin. The Badgers had a sluggish start against Utah State but found a way to close the game on a 59 - 0 run. I expect more of the same this week.

La. Monroe (0 - 1) 13 @ (10) Florida State (0 - 1) 31: Cancelled

(17) Louisville (1 - 0) 41 @ North Carolina (0 - 1) 23: Neither of these teams was particularly impressive in week one, the difference being that at least Louisville was able to leave Indianapolis with a win over Louisville. The Tar Heels looked terrible on defense against Cal and will need to find some answers on defense if they want to contend for the ACC Coastal title. I don’t see it happening and they’ll most likely start the conference schedule 0 – 1.

Charlotte (0 - 1) 17 @ (19) Kansas State (1 - 0) 37: Kansas State continues an embarrassing non-conference schedule by hosting Charlotte. I guess they figure a date with Vanderbilt gets them to put an SEC win on their resume. That’s not the way the rest of think about it. Come on, man up!

(21) South Florida (2 - 0) 30 @ Connecticut (1 - 0) 13: Cancelled

No. Colorado (1 - 0) 10 @ (22) Florida (0 - 1) 34: Cancelled

Fresno State (1 - 0) 6 @ (1) Alabama (1 - 0) 45: After a big win over Florida State, fueled mostly by defense and special teams, Alabama faces a squad that beat Incarnate Word to equal their win total from last season. Enough said.

Pittsburgh (1 - 0) 17 @ (4) Penn State (1 - 0) 37: In the revival of this storied rivalry last season, Pittsburgh won a thriller, but things look to be a lot different this time. Penn State will definitely be playing with increased motivation this year, given they were snubbed by the playoff committee, despite winning the Big Ten championship over a very good Wisconsin team. Pitt wasn’t impressive in week one, and Penn State took care of business.

Delaware (1 - 0) 10 @ (18) Virginia Tech (1 - 0) 37: Virginia Tech won a hard fought and emotional game behind freshman quarterback Josh Jackson, probably bringing with it increased expectations for the Hokies. They’ll need to regain their focus against the FCS Blue Hens to keep from getting caught in a letdown. The talent we saw last week, especially on defense, should lead Tech to victory.

(23) TCU (1 - 0) 24 @ Arkansas (1 - 0) 27: I’ll be at this one, a pivotal game for both teams as they come off wins over FCS teams. Arkansas prevailed in overtime at TCU last season and I expect another close one. The difference might be Arkansas’ shift to a 3 – 4 defense and an improved running game. My wife wouldn’t want me picking against the Hogs anyway.

Indiana State (0 - 1) 13 @ (25) Tennessee (1 - 0) 37: Georgia Tech might have gifted a win to the Vols Monday night, going for and failing to cross the goal line for a two point conversion in the second overtime.  This should be nice breather for the Vols.

(13) Auburn (1 - 0) 23 @ (3) Clemson (1 - 0) 34: Clemson began their run to the national championship with a tough win in Auburn last year. Behind a new quarterback, they put up 56 on Kent State and welcome Auburn to Death Valley for a rematch. I think the difference her might be Clemson’s defense.

(5) Oklahoma (1 - 0) 21 @ (2) Ohio State (1 - 0) 30: This is easily the biggest game of the week and the one with the most impact relative to the playoffs. Oklahoma was no match for Ohio State last season and probably one of the reasons that the Buckeyes ended up in the playoffs instead of Penn State. A big question is how the departure of Oklahoma head coach and the promotion of offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley will affect the Sooners’ chances for the Big 12 title and a berth in the playoffs? This game might give us a answer.

Chattanooga (0 - 1) 10 @ (12) LSU (1 - 0) 38: LSU easily got by BYU last week, so now they get a bit of a break against Chattanooga, a top 15 FCS team. The Tigers might get challenged early, but their size and depth should win the day.

(15) Georgia (1 - 0) 27 @ (24) Notre Dame (1 - 0) 24: If Notre Dame is going to turn things around in a big way this season, a win against the Bulldogs is a necessity. I feel that Georgia is a little overrated, but I feel the same way about the Irish. Georgia will want to run the ball and Notre Dame had a tough time making stops on the ground last year. Georgia has ten players back from a decent defense a year ago and might be improved enough to give Notre Dame some problems. This is a tough one to pick.

Montana (1 - 0) 17 @ (7) Washington (1 - 0) 38: Washington is another team with a questionable out of conference schedule that could hurt them come playoff time. Even a lopsided victory over FCS Montana will do them much good in December.

(14) Stanford (1 - 0) 23 @ (6) USC (1 - 0) 17: Even though USC quarterback Sam Darnold didn’t play in last year’s loss to Stanford, I don’t see a lot of difference this time around. The Stanford defense is still daunting and they’ve apparently found a way to replace the offensive production provided by Christian McCaffery. The score might be closer, but I have a feeling the result will be the same.

Boise State (1 - 0) 24 @ (20) Washington State (1 - 0) 37: Boise State defeated Washington State, taking advantage of friendly conditions on their own blue turf. Things will probably be a little different this time, especially considering that the Cougars came out playing better in week one than last year. If Washington State can leverage their eight returning defensive starters to show some improvement on that side of the ball, they could make a serious run at a Pac-12 title.

Northwestern (1 - 0) 14 @ Duke (1 - 0) 27: In another installment of the SAT bowl, Northwestern travels to Duke to try to replicate last season’s 24 – 13 victory.  Duke’s home facility doesn’t offer them much of a home field advantage and there’s a solid chance that with fifteen returning starters off a 7 – 5 team, Northwestern will be much improved. Not so much for the Blue Devils.

Indiana (0 - 1) 23 @ Virginia (1 - 0) 17: Indiana played Ohio State very tough for the first thirty-five minutes and then the speed of the Buckeyes took over. For Virginia coach Brock Mendenhall, this test will give him an indication his rebuilding process is headed in the right direction. It was difficult to get many answers in a 28 – 10 win over FCS William and Mary. I can’t see the Hoos generating enough offense to win this one.

East Carolina (0 - 1) 13 @ West Virginia (0 - 1) 37: West Virginia lost a tough game to Virginia Tech last week, but at least they verified that quarterback Will Grier still has what it takes to lead a major college offense. In a big loss for East Carolina, they got pounded by defending FCS national champs James Madison. I believe West Virginia will just have too much for the Pirates today.

Iowa (1 - 0) 27 @ Iowa State (1 - 0) 13: This is a pretty big rivalry game and Iowa State can be a tough place to play. Neither of these teams was particularly impressive last week, but Iowa was able to shut down Wyoming, which played in the Mountain West championship game last year, 24 – 3. I believe Iowa’s defense will be too much for the Cyclones, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Iowa State put up a tough fight.

Nebraska (1 - 0) 30 @ Oregon (1 - 0) 37: This is a big game for both of these teams to gauge their respective hopes for the season. Oregon is coming off a disappointing campaign that cost Mark Helfrich his job, but they opened with a seventy-seven point explosion over FCS Southern Utah. Last season Nebraska struggled to defeat the Ducks 35 – 32, but this year the game is in Eugene, Oregon where the home team is tough to beat.

Minnesota (1 - 0) 28 @ Oregon State (1 - 1) 24: Neither of these teams will threaten the top teams in their respective conferences, so this is a good opportunity to get a win against a power five opponent. Oregon State’s defense has been unimpressive, so I give the nod to Minnesota to handle the Beavers.

Hawaii (2 - 0) 27 @ UCLA (1 - 0) 41: The huge comeback by UCLA that stunned Texas A&M was an amazing effort by quarterback Josh Rosen, but the defensive lapses that allowed the Aggies to build a 44 – 10 lead should be of major concern to Bruin head coach Jim Mora. Hawaii’s wins have come against much lesser competition, so I still like UCLA to hold serve in the Rose Bowl.

Utah (1 - 0) 24 @ BYU (1 - 1) 13: For anyone outside the state of Utah, this is just another intra-state rivalry. That’s not the case for the fans of these schools. This is a nasty grudge match every season and the records really don’t matter too much. Last year’s game was won 20 – 19 by Utah, which was indicative of the history of this rivalry. BYU has had a difficult time finding their offense, so I’m going to lean toward the Utes.

South Carolina (1 - 0) 38 @ Missouri (1 - 0) 20: Missouri is going to need to make some big strides to get competitive in the SEC, despite a season ending win against Arkansas. Their talent really isn’t where it needs to be. Head coach Will Muschamp has South Carolina headed in the right direction and should be able to handle the Tigers in this conference opener for both teams.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK ONE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND

It's finally time for the true opening weekend of college football. There are three games matching ranked teams, with the biggest pitting number one ranked Alabama against third rated Florida State in what could be a college football playoff preview.

Last Week: 5 - 0 100%

Kent State 6 @ (5) Clemson 41: I’m generally a big fan of the teams in the upper echelon of the MAC, but Kent State isn’t in that class. We probably won’t get a very good read on how well Clemson will be as they look to defend their national championship, but at least we’ll see how well Kelly Bryant, their new quarterback, leads the offense.

Akron 13 @ (6) Penn State 31: See above. Actually, Akron could be somewhat improved after last season’s five win campaign, but they’re still predicted to finish near the bottom of the MAC East. Head coach Terry Bowden has former Florida State defensive coordinator Chuck Amato in the same role for the Zips, but it’s a lot to ask for them to upset national title contender Penn State in State College.

Maryland 21 @ (23) Texas 30: Expectations are high for Texas and new head coach Tom Herman. Former Longhorn coach Charlie Strong left the team with a lot of talent and despite only winning five games in 2016, they were competitive in all but two of their losses. On the other side, Maryland squandered a decent start and lost seven of their final nine games, including the Quick Lane Bowl to Boston College. I’m expecting Texas to come out of the gates with enthusiasm and discipline, so I like their chances against the Terps.

California 20 @ North Carolina 34: Cal gave up more than 40 points in nine games last year and finished the season with the second-worst scoring defense in the FBS. For the UNC offense, with only four returning starters, that should sound like good news as they break in an entirely set of skill players, including quarterback. With the early start in Chapel Hill, it might take the Bears a little while to get moving. By then, unless they show tremendous improvement on defense, it might be too late.

Bethune-Cookman VERY LITTLE @ (18) Miami A LOT: Miami’s non-conference schedule is a joke (except for Notre Dame) and needs to be upgraded in the near future if they want to be taken seriously again at the national level.

NC State 30 @ South Carolina 24: This is an interesting match-up between two middle of the pack ACC and SEC schools. N.C State lost a lot of close games last year or their 2016 might have looked a lot different. South Carolina had the same 6 – 6 regular season record, but that was deceiving as they chalked up victories over East Carolina, Massachusetts and FCS Western Carolina. Not impressive, but they return ten offensive starters off a team that was ranked an anemic 116^th in FBS scoring offense. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? I guess we’ll see.

UTEP 10 @ (7) Oklahoma 48: UTEP’s only game against a power five team last season was a 41 – 7 loss at Texas. I don’t expect much different of an outcome in this one.

(11) Michigan 27 vs. (17) Florida 24 (Arlington, TX): My feeling is that both of these teams are a little bit overrated. Michigan is expected to take a step back from the team that lost three games by five points. Florida went 9 – 4 last year, but they had three ugly losses and they face a much tougher schedule this time around. This will be a very good inter-conference game, but I like Michigan’s consistency on defense a little better.

Temple 24 @ Notre Dame 27: After an ugly four win season, the pressure is on Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly to turn things around and do it in a hurry. Temple may be one of the easiest games on the Irish schedule, but they are still two-time defending AAC East champions. An early loss could put Kelly on a very hot seat with a difficult schedule ahead of him.

Stony Brook 13 @ (19) South Florida 51: Another FCS team venturing into FBS territory. South Florida shrugged off a shaky start to score 42 straight at San Jose State in front of about 17 people. Stony Brook shouldn’t offer nearly as much opposition.

Western Michigan 24 @ (4) USC 30: Western Michigan went undefeated until losing in the Cotton Bowl to Wisconsin last season. Head coach PJ Fleck headed to Minnesota, but the team will still be very good. USC is picked by many to win the Pac-12 behind quarterback Sam Darnold. With nothing to lose, look for Western Michigan to give a spirited effort. The Trojans better be ready for a MAC Attack.

Appalachian State 27 @ (15) Georgia 28: Another host team that needs to be on upset alert is Georgia. Last season Appalachian State took Tennessee to overtime before succumbing to the Vols. The Mountaineers are no strangers to Power Five teams and are a dangerous group. Kirby Smart’s second Bulldog team is going to need to improve on offense or every game will be a potential struggle, including this one. If there was ever a trap game, this is one, as Georgia travels to Notre Dame next week.

Central Arkansas 14  @ (20) Kansas State 35: Kansas State plays one of the weakest non-conference schedule of any Power Five program. For a team that has been successful for as long as the Wildcats, it should be embarrassing that the signature game outside of the Big 12 is against Vanderbilt. Come on, guys. Really?

Ga. Southern 16 @ (12) Auburn 38: Georgia Southern can be hard to defend, as it runs a style of offense similar to Georgia Tech’s. Their new offensive coordinator is a former Yellow Jacket assistant, so expect to see more similarities. Auburn will need to defend well, which they did very well last year, to avoid a costly upset, especially if they get caught looking ahead to Clemson next week. 

(16) Louisville 41 @ Purdue 24 (Indianapolis, IN): Louisville has plenty of reasons to be motivated. They have the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, knocked off Florida State, lost in the closing minutes to Clemson and are getting very little respect to start the season. The primary reason is that the Cardinals dropped their last three games, two of them to teams they really should have defeated. Purdue’’s new coach is former Louisville quarterback and assistant coach Jeff Brohm, so there is some added incentive for him to push his former team yet with his spread offense. He just doesn’t have the talent yet to pull it off.

(3) Florida State 30 vs. (1) Alabama 28 (Arlington, TX): I know that Nick Saban’s record when he has time to prepare for an opponent is incredible, but this is totally a hunch pick. Florida State has a quarterback starting his second season, a ton of great recruits and a pretty good coach of their own. Seminole coach Jimbo Fisher coached under Saban at LSU and is one of the names mentioned to possibly succeed Saban if and when he decides to leave Alabama. There is familiarity and at times it can be the difference in a close game.

BYU 17 vs. (13) LSU 27 (New Orleans, LA): BYU’s offense wasn’t very productive last week while LSU should have a very good defense. This game was moved to New Orleans from Houston, which just puts it a little closer to LSU and a little farther away from BYU. The Tigers have an advantage with the venue, but BYU already has some game experience, so this one might be close for a half or three quarters. Then I expect LSU to take control.

Montana State 13 @ (24) Washington State 37: Last season, Washington State was surprised by FCS Eastern Washington in their opener, but EWU is one of the top teams in their classification. I don’t expect the same threat from Montana State. The Cougars were rolling last year, but dropped their last three games. They’ll be trying to recapture some momentum before seeking revenge against Boise State next week.

Sunday, September 3

(22) West Virginia 20 vs. Va. Tech 31 (Landover, MD) This is a big game for two teams trying to gain national relevance. West Virginia, if could figure out a way to beat at least one team from the state of Oklahoma might have a chance of contending for a Big 12 crown, especially since the top two teams will play in a conference championship game. Virginia Tech came within a touchdown of Clemson in the ACC Championship game last season, get another shot at the Tigers on September 30, but this time in the friendly confines of Lane Stadium. The first freshman to start at quarterback since Michael Vick in 1999, Josh Jackson, is an unknown that is keeping experts from predicting a higher finish in the ACC Coastal. I like the Va. Tech defense to take care of business and set up Jackson for success.

Texas A&M 30 @ UCLA 34: Coached Jim Mora fir UCLA and Kevin Sumlin at Texas A&M are both firmly on the hot seat. Depending on how this game transpires, only one of them will have a cooler spot to sit by Sunday morning. The Bruins get All-American and Heisman candidate Josh Rosen back from injury at quarterback, which should help Mora’s chances. After promising starts the last several seasons, including a couple with Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M has failed to finish well. I like UCLA to take this one at home.

Monday, September 4

(25) Tennessee 27 vs Ga. Tech 31 (Atlanta, GA): Georgia Tech had a down year in 2016, but they were still able to upset Virginia Tech, eventual ACC Coastal winners. The running attack for the Yellow Jackets is difficult to defend, especially when a team doesn’t face it very often. Tennessee began last season well, but fell off in midseason and then inexplicably lost to Vanderbilt in the regular season finale. A bowl win over Nebraska salvaged the year, but head coach Butch Jones’ seat is indeed warm. Although this is technically a neutral site game, it’s taking place just a couple of exits down the connector from the Georgia Tech campus. I’ll take the Yellow Jackets.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.