COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK THREE PREDICTIONS

Last Week:          24 – 3  88.9%

Overall:                51 – 9  85.0%

After two plus weeks, I’m still at 85% on my picks. That’s not a bad number, but the tougher games start to increase, so I don’t expect to stay at that lofty level. One of the premier games originally scheduled for this week, Miami at Florida State, has been postponed due to Hurricane Irma. I wasn’t particularly looking forward to making that pick, so I’m off the hook for a while. Let’s see what I think will happen in the other twenty-seven games I’m predicting.

Air Force (1 – 0) 20 @ (7) Michigan (2 – 0) 24: I thought Michigan was over rated to start the season, but that was before I saw how well their defense is playing. They’ll be tested against the veer attack of Air Force, but the Wolverines’ defensive speed will probably match up well against the Falcons. This one might be closer than a lot of people think.

(9) Oklahoma State (2 – 0) 37 @ Pittsburgh (1 – 1) 24: Pittsburgh didn’t really give Penn State much of a scare last week and they face a team in Oklahoma State that’s probably pretty close talent-wise to the Nittany Lions. The Cowboys haven’t really been tested in their first two games and Pitt is a step up in class, but not the level that should give them a real chance to challenge in this game. Oklahoma State won in Stillwater last year, and I expect a similar outcome this time around.

(25) UCLA (2 – 0) 41 @ Memphis (1 – 0) 30: The biggest obstacle for UCLA in this game is the noon EDT/9:00 am PDT start. Memphis doesn’t have the defense to stop Bruin quarterback Josh Rosen’s passing attack, but the early morning sluggishness could do it for them. Look for UCLA to come out slowly but build some momentum like they did against Texas A&M. But this is also a little of a trap game for the Bruins, as they travel to Stanford next week for their Pac-12 opener.

(10) Wisconsin (2 – 0) 30 @ BYU (1 -2) 16: BYU continues a tough early season stretch of games with an offense that so far hasn’t been very productive. They welcome a stingy bunch that will make it difficult for the Cougars to consistently move the ball. Wisconsin has also shown enough offense to be a legitimate Big Ten contender, not a great thing for BYU.

(16) Virginia Tech (2 – 0) 34 @ East Carolina (0 – 2) 10: The clock’s ticking on Virginia Tech’s September 30 showdown with defending ACC and National Champion Clemson. In the past, East Carolina has dealt the Hokies some tough losses, but this Pirates team is just not very good. An opening loss to FCS James Madison followed by a drubbing by West Virginia prompted them to make a change at defensive coordinator. That’s not a great sign the week of the biggest game on their schedule.

SMU (2 – 0) 20 @ (20) TCU (2 – 0) 37: TCU’s defense appears to be back on track after stuffing Arkansas last week, but that required two goal line stands. SMU has put up big number in games against inferior competition, so it remains to be seen if the Horned Frogs will be tested this week. My guess is they will, but their size, speed and depth should give them the edge in the Metroplex Matchup.

(23) Tennessee (2 – 0) 27 @ (24) Florida (0 – 1) 23: I wasn’t sold on Florida to start the season and they didn’t disappoint by laying an egg against Michigan in the opener. Tennessee struggled against Georgia Tech and was lucky to get a win in that one, but at least they have an offense. Georgia is probably the class of the SEC East, but the winner of this one will at least be able to challenge the ‘Dogs. The loser will face an uphill climb, especially with their schedules.

Mercer (1 – 1) 10 @ (15) Auburn (1 – 1) 49: Why bother?

Army (2 – 0) 24 @ (8) Ohio State (1 – 1) 34: Ohio State has played two decent halves of football so far this season, with the other two extremely underwhelming. Army is coming off a couple of season opening wins following their win over Navy last season to break an insanely long losing streak to the Middies. They have nothing to lose in this one, while the Buckeyes can either come out fighting or flat. This could be a tough fight for Ohio State, but they should have too much offense for Army.

Oregon State (1 – 2) 17 @ (21) Washington State (2 – 0) 51: Oregon State is easily the worst team in the Pac-12, while Washington State, unlike last season, has come out firing on most, if not all, cylinders. This one could get very ugly before it’s over.

Tulane (1 – 1) 13 @ (2) Oklahoma (2 – 0) 31: After dominating Ohio State in the second half last week and jumping firmly into the playoff conversation, this is a good game for Oklahoma to be coming back to Norman to play. Even a lackluster, hangover performance will probably be enough to carry the Sooners past Tulane.

Colorado State (2 – 1) 20 @ (1) Alabama (2 – 0) 37: Although Alabama will win this game, it’s anything but a walkover for the Tide. Colorado State got jobbed by a Pac-12 officiating crew against Colorado and I’ll be interested to see if they get a Mountain West bunch to even the score at Alabama. Partisan officiating crews in inter-conference games are a very bad idea, and I hope the NCAA or whoever governs the assignment of officials reconsiders the practice. Either way, Alabama will win, but it might not be as easy as they think.

(12) LSU (2 – 0) 27 @ Mississippi State (2 – 0) 24: Mississippi State has scored 106 points against two lesser opponents, but could nonetheless put some pressure on the LSU defense, which hasn’t been tested so far. Those cow bells will be ringing loudly in Starkville Saturday evening and could serve to distract the Tigers a bit. Although I believe LSU to be the better team, this could be a struggle.

Georgia State (0 – 1) 10 @ (5) Penn State (2 – 0) 42: I can’t imagine the Nittany Lions stubbing their collective toes against Georgia State.

Samford (2 – 0) 13 @ (13) Georgia (2 – 0) 47: There shouldn’t be a lot of drama in this one as FCS Samford has struggled to win its first two games against other FCS teams.

(18) Kansas State (2 – 0) 31 @ Vanderbilt (2 – 0) 27: Before we scoff at Vanderbilt’s early season schedule, their first win came against Conference USA’s Middle Tennessee State, which went to Syracuse and beat the Orangemen last week. Is Vanderbilt building on a season ending win over Tennessee last year? A win against Kansas State sends a clear message that the Commodores may be a tough out in 2017. For the Wildcats, it’s about time they played a decent non-conference foe. For Vandy, this is the first of four consecutive games against teams currently ranked in the top 25.

(3) Clemson (2 – 0) 30 @ (14) Louisville (2 – 0) 24: This game went down to the wire last season, with Clemson pulling out a big win that ultimately gave them the ACC Atlantic title and cleared the path to the national championship. Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Lamar Jackson is back for Louisville, but it’s the defense for the Cardinals that looks a bit suspect. That’s not an issue for Clemson. I like the Tigers to win in an entertaining ball game.

Texas (1 – 1) 20 @ (4) USC (2 – 0) 31: Is Texas as bad as they looked against Maryland or as good as they looked against San Jose State? The answer is probably somewhere in between, which isn’t good enough to defeat USC, big winners over a good Stanford team last week. Trojan quarterback Sam Darnold looks sharp and Texas is having quarterback issues. I think that about says it all.

Fresno State (1 – 1) 17 @ (6) Washington (2 – 0) 37: Fresno State has lost to Alabama and beaten Incarnate Word. Washington should be able to take care of the Bulldogs, much like the Tide did in week one. But the Huskies need to start a little faster than they did against Rutgers to begin the season.

(19) Stanford (1 – 1) 27 @ San Diego State (1 – 1) 20: Coming off a tough loss to USC, Stanford will need to pay attention against the Aztecs. San Diego State beat Arizona State, another Pac-12 team last week and will pose some problems for the Cardinal. I’m looking for Stanford to bounce back on the road and put the Trojan defeat behind them.

Baylor (0 – 2) 27 @ Duke (2 – 0) 38: Baylor’s opening loss to Liberty was a stunner, but then they followed it up with a defeat by UT San Antonio. Things are really getting messy in Waco, and they’ll be traveling to surprising Duke, who upended Northwestern last week to stay unbeaten. I don’t see the Bears turning it around any time soon.

Notre Dame (1 – 1) 30 @ Boston College (1 – 1) 13: Notre Dame lost a squeaker to Georgia last week and then head coach Brian Kelly was a bit terse with a reporter following the game. The Irish just need to win to silence Kelly’s critics, but a tough schedule will make that increasingly more difficult. That means this game against a team they should beat is critical. Boston College got smacked around by Wake Forest last week, so the Irish should be able to get out of Beantown with a much needed W.

Purdue (1 – 1) 34 @ Missouri (1 – 1) 27:  I’m having trouble understanding why Missouri is favored by a touchdown in this one. Purdue took Louisville right to the end on a neutral field, while Missouri got smoked by South Carolina at home. Hmmm… I’m taking the Boilermakers in an upset.

Arizona State (1 – 1) 34 @ Texas Tech (1 – 0) 42: After losing to San Diego State last week, Arizona State’s head coach Todd Graham is definitely sitting on a very hot seat in Tempe. It’s hard to gauge how good Texas Tech is, but they’ll definitely put some points on the board. I don’t think the Sun Devils will be able to keep with the Red Raiders at home in Lubbock.

Ole Miss (2 – 0) 27 @ California (2 – 0) 31: California, picked by many to finish last in the Pac-12, is off to an impressive start. With two easy games to begin the season, Ole Miss has to head west to take on what is now a dangerous opponent. I’ve liked what I’ve seen so far from California and I’m unimpressed with the defense of Ole Miss.

Kentucky (2 – 0) 14 @ South Carolina (2 – 0) 27: South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp is quietly building a solid program. Kentucky has also shown some improvement, but they’ve been underwhelming against lesser competition so far this season. I don’t see the Wildcats putting up enough points on South Carolina’s defense to challenge the Gamecocks.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.