The NFL season is starting to take some shape, but there are still 18 teams with records of 3 - 2, 2 - 3, or 2 - 2 before the start of play this week. Six games involve two teams from that group, so we could end up with a big logjam in the middle or some separation in the standings. It just gets fun to watch at this point.
Indianapolis (3 - 2) 27 @ Houston (3 - 2) 24: The Colts have run off three wins in a row after a tough start, while the Texans have dropped two of their last three after jumping out to 2 - 0 to start the season. These Thursday night games definitely favor the home team, but both participants have to adjust to an abbreviated preparation schedule and recovery time. This one is just too close to make a definitive call, but I'm going to go with the Colts. I think their offense is better than Houston's and their defense is playing pretty well.
Jacksonville (0 - 5) 17 @ Tennessee (1 - 4) 23: The Jags put a pool in their stadium, but it won't keep the league from pushing for them to be the top candidate to fill the vacancy in the nation's second largest television market. But for this game, I have to go with the Titans.
Baltimore (3 - 2) 20 @ Tampa Bay (1 - 4) 24: The Ravens have a tough task, going on the road for the second week in a row to take on a team on the rise, despite their misleading record. I'm taking the Bucs in an upset.
Denver (3 - 1) 27 @ New York Jets (1 - 4) 16: The Broncos head east to take on a desperate Jets team that needs to find a quarterback that can either play or get prepared to play. Manning has always been able to do both, so advantage Denver.
Detroit (3 - 2) 27 @ Minnesota (2 - 3) 20: Both teams are coming off losses, the Vikings in a rout and the Lions in a tight game. Minnesota's inconsistency bothers me, so I'll stick with what I think is the better overall team.
New England (3 - 2) 20@ Buffalo (3 - 2) 23: Can the Patriots sustain the energy they had in last week's home destruction of Cincinnati? Because all of the issues surrounding New England still exist, regardless of the win. Buffalo's defense is stout and they should be able to give the Pats a lot of problems.
Carolina (3 - 2) 20 @ Cincinnati (3 - 1) 24: The Bengals laid an egg last week, casting some doubt on how strong they really are. I'll give them a bit of a pass as they were heading into the lion's den, with Pats' QB Tom Brady on fire to set aside all of the negative conjecture about his team.
Pittsburgh (3 - 2) 27 @ Cleveland (2 - 2) 24: The Browns made a stunning comeback against the Titans last week that was led by QB Brian Hoyer, not that other guy. That should keep that other guy on the bench for a few more games. This is one of those true college style rivalries in the NFL, complete with nasty fan behavior and "throw the records out the window" type of environment. But on the field, I'll stick with a pretty good Steeler team.
Green Bay (3 - 2) 28 @ Miami (2 - 2) 24: The Dolphins went into the bye week with a big win over Oakland, but everyone gets a big win over Oakland. The Packers have dispelled doubts with eighty points in victories over Detroit and Minnesota. When Aaron Rodgers gets on a roll, he's tough to stop, even for a pretty good defense.
San Diego (4 - 1) 31 @ Oakland (0 - 4) 17: This is one of those games where ;you have to think the Raiders have little or no chance of victory. But as I say frequently, it's the NFL. However, the Chargers are really playing well and I don't think this is the game where it comes to an end.
Chicago (2 - 3) 28 @ Atlanta (2 - 3) 30: This is a very interesting game.The Falcons are 2 - 0 at home while the Bears have played well on the road, going 2 - 1. Both teams have been inconsistent, but I'll toss the coin and come up with the home team today in a close one.
Dallas (4 - 1) 20 @ Seattle (3 - 1) 28:As good as Dallas has played at times, it's just not smart to predict that they'll prevail in the toughest place to play in the league. The Cowboys QB Tony Romo hasn't made some of the mistakes that have led to tough losses in the past, but Seattle has a way of making good quarterbacks look pretty average.
Washington (1 - 4) 20 @ Arizona (3 - 1) 27: The Cardinals won't be announcing a starting quarterback until a couple of hours before kickoff, so there are still three possibilities. If they have to go with rookie Logan Thomas, Washington has a chance. If they get starter Carson Palmer back, then I have to figure the Cardinals will win big. If it's backup Stanton, then it could be a closer game. I'll take two out of three.
New York Giants (3 - 2) 26 @ Philadelphia (4 - 1) 30: By the time this one kicks off, these teams will know if the Cowboys pulled an upset to got to 5 - 1. If so, it becomes an early season must win for the Giants. Philadelphia has looked impressive at times, but at others have given up a lot of points to either fall behind early or let teams back in the game. New York has won three in a row after looking terrible to start the season.The Eagles are three point favorites, which means the oddsmakers see this as a tossup.
Monday Night:
San Francisco (3 - 2) 34 @ St. Louis (1 - 3) 24: The 'Niners are playing tough defense and running the ball very well. The Rams have given up 34 points in each of their three losses and are giving up over 150 yards rushing per game. That's not a good combination for St. Louis.
Sunday, October 12, 2014
Saturday, October 11, 2014
WEEK 7 COLLEGE PICKS
Before we get to the picks, I have some comments on the
national rankings. I include the rankings next to the teams because I use them
to decide what games to make predictions on. But this week's polls are
ridiculous. It seems odd that Oregon loses to an unbeaten team and falls to 12.
UCLA falls to a team that was highly regarded prior to the season, and plunges
to 18. Yet Alabama loses and drops ...if you can call it a drop, to 7. Yet Michigan State, the team Oregon beat,
and soundly, is at number 8. Arizona, who beat the number two team in the
country, gets ranked at number 10, behind a team that Oregon beat. There is no
doubt in my mind that the polls have a distinctly east coast bias, except when
it comes to Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have defeated Virginia Tech, who
beat Ohio State, who is ranked 15th. They also beat Miami. who beat a really
good Duke team, yet are only at number 22. There are 13 teams with a loss
ranked ahead of Georgia Tech. Really? If Ohio State is 15, and Georgia Tech
beat the only team to defeat the Buckeyes, how do the pollsters vote the way
they do? It's simple. Either they don't know anything about college football,
they don't watch the games or they don't take it seriously. In all cases, they
don't deserve to have a vote. It's about time the polls have participants that
know a pick six from a six pack.
Washington State (2 - 4) 27 @ (25) Stanford 31 (3 - 2):
As good as Stanford's defense is, they'll be tested by the Cougars. The
Cardinal are coming off a very tough
loss at Notre Dame, while Washington State scored 59 points in regulation last
week and still lost by a point to Cal.
(13) Georgia (4 - 1) 30 @ (23) Missouri (4 - 1) 28:
The SEC East is as compelling as the West, but for different reasons. The West
has four teams ranked in the top 7 and the East has two in the top 23. Missouri
has been tough to figure out, but so has Georgia.
(1) Florida State (5 - 0) 34 @ Syracuse (2 - 3) 23:
The Seminoles have a history of stubbing their toe at the most unpredictable
time. I would love to go with the upset, but Syracuse just hasn't shown me
enough to think they can pull it off.
Texas (2 - 3) 17 @ (11)
Oklahoma (4 - 1) 27 (in Dallas): The Sooners let the game and possibly a
chance at the playoffs slip away last week against TCU. This rivalry has lost a
little of its luster on the national level, but not with the teams and the fans
of these programs.
Duke (4 - 1) 21 @ (22) Ga. Tech (5 - 0) 27: This is a
critical game in the ACC Coastal. Georgia Tech can keep up with Virginia and
take a big step with a victory, after already defeating Virginia Tech and
Miami. I think the Yellow Jackets are the real deal.
(12) Oregon (4 - 1) 31 @ (18) UCLA (4 - 1) 28 : This
is really an elimination game for the playoffs.. I still like the Ducks,
despite their loss last week. The Bruins weren't impressive early n the season,
until a big win over Arizona State jumped them into the top ten.
(2) Auburn (5 - 0) 27 @ (3) Mississippi State (5 - 0)
24: The SEC West is so wide open, it's
almost impossible to predict week to week what will happen. However, I'm going
to stay with what has been a very impressive Auburn team. They've been here
before, whereas it's new territory for the Bulldogs.
North Carolina (2 - 3) 16 @ (6) Notre Dame (5 - 0) 37:
The Tar Heels haven't been able to stop anyone. Virginia Tech's young offense
even put up 34 on them last week. I don't see Notre Dame stumbling, but this is
a bit of a trap game, given the difficulty of the Irish's schedule.
(9) TCU (4 - 0) 27 @ (5)
Baylor (5 - 0) 30: I guess I'm missing something, but a lot of people seem
to have fallen in love with TCU. Not me. but then again, I'm wrong a lot. I'll
stay with a very impressive Baylor team at home.
(8) Michigan State (4 - 1) 24 @ Purdue (3 - 3) 13: With all of the upsets, Michigan State
suddenly has life in the hunt for the playoffs. Their schedule will work
against them and it didn't help that Oregon lost last week. I'm not sure Purdue
has enough to overcome the Spartans' tough
defense.
(16) Oklahoma State (4 - 1) 30 @ Kansas (2 - 3) 17: The
Cowboys have one loss, and that was to the top-ranked Seminoles. Obviously,
there isn't much respect for them as they are only ranked 16th. They should
roll today.
(7) Alabama (4 - 1) 27 @ Arkansas (3 - 2) 24: The Razorbacks are much
improved, but Alabama is coming off a rare loss in the Saban era. Bret
Bielema's squad had Texas A&M on the ropes two weeks ago but couldn't
finish the deal. The Tide is beaten up and is without a couple of key players,
but I still think Arkansas is a couple of players short on defense from being
able to cover the entire field.
(19) East Carolina (4 - 1) 38 @ South Florida (2 - 3) 20: The
Pirates are probably the surprise of the non-power conference teams. South
Florida doesn't have quite the team they had a few years ago. ECU has a lot of
motivation to get to a big New Year's Day bowl game.
(3) Ole Miss (5 - 0) 31 @ (14) Texas A&M (5 - 1) 30: The Aggies return home after a
couple of tough games against Arkansas and Mississippi State. Ole Miss rolls in
with a team that is their best in a couple of generations. A&M's defense
just isn't very good, and Ole Miss can play on both sides of the ball. Another
coin toss. Heads, it's Ole Miss close.
USC (3 - 2) 30
@ (10) Arizona (5 - 0) 28: Who would have thought that the team in the top ten
would be the Wildcats? I'm not convinced
that Arizona is that good. USC beat Stanford and their losses both came on last
second plays. The gig's up for the home team.
West Virginia (3 - 2) 35 @ Texas Tec (2 - 3) 31: The Mountaineers are probably
better than their record would indicate. Those losses are to Alabama and
Oklahoma. Texas Tech just can't stop anyone, which puts a lot of pressure on
their offense.
Louisville (5 - 1) 23 @ Clemson (3 - 2) 31: The
Tigers are really coming around on offense and then last week shut down N.C.
State. I expect them to keep it going against a tough Louisville team.
LSU (4 - 2) 20 @ Florida
(3 - 1) 23: Neither of these teams is among the elite in the SEC, but I
think Florida has a better chance of competing for a division title. It's hard
to tell, though, since the Gators really haven't played a lot of games. Their
only game against an elite team was a blowout loss to Alabama.
Washington (4 - 1) 40 @ California (4 - 1) 42: I know
that Cal's defense is horrible, but for some reason I jumped on the Golden Bear
bandwagon a few weeks ago and I'm picking them today. It's going to be a
shootout, though.
Penn State (4 - 1) 27 @ Michigan (2 - 4) 24: Brady
Hoke is probably already gone, but his team has a chance to give him a big
victory over a quality opponent. The problem is, Michigan just isn't all that
good this season, and after Northwestern beat Wisconsin, the Nittany Lions'
lone loss looks a lot better.
Friday, October 10, 2014
FRIDAY NIGHT COLLEGE PICK
It's rare when a ranked team from a Big 5 power conference plays on a Friday night. But we have one that may be a bit more compelling than we would have thought at the beginning of the season.
Washington State (2 - 4) 30 @ (25) Stanford 26 (3 - 2):
As good as Stanford's defense is, they'll be tested by the Cougars. The
Cardinal are coming off a very tough
loss at Notre Dame, while Washington State scored 59 points in regulation last
week and still lost by a point to Cal, a team that is really flying under the radar. Just wait until the big boys in the Pac-12 have to take on the Golden Bears. How Stanford is still ranked 25th is ludicrous. Reputation is one thing, but the pollsters need to focus on the games. In three games against quality opponents, (nothing against Army, but they haven't really been competitive recently) Stanford has been able to produce just 44 points. Really? In an era where teams routinely put up 30 or more points, Stanford's lack of production is startling. Washington State's defense is porous at times, but I just don't think the Cardinal can keep up with the Cougars. I look for Mike Leach's squad to put a big number up on Stanford tonight. And I don't think the Cardinal can keep up.
Thursday, October 9, 2014
WEEK 6 COLLEGE PICKS RECAP
I've been watching college football for most of my life, and I can't remember a crazier Saturday this early in the season. Of course, I was definitely on the short end of the upset prediction stick, but I probably wasn't alone. But picks aside, you couldn't have picked a better day to sit back and let the DVR and remote do their things. From Game Day at 9:00 am to the last play of the night, I was tuned in. What a day! And just think, there are eight weeks left!
Last Week: 16 - 8
Overall: 103 - 45
Thursday:
Arizona (4 - 0) 31 @ (2) Oregon (4 - 0) 45: No. What a start to the weekend. I don't think many people saw this one coming. Arizona 31 - 24.
Saturday:
Wake Forest (2 - 3) 13 @ (1) Florida State (4 - 0) 31: Correct. No surprise, but the 'Noles still have Notre Dame looming. Florida State 43 - 3.
(3) Alabama (4 - 0) 27 @ (11) Ole Miss (4 - 0) 26: No. I sure was right about the Tide getting tested. What a comeback by the Rebels. Ole Miss 23 - 17
(4) Oklahoma (4 - 0) 27 @ (25) TCU (3 - 0) 24: No. The Sooners need to play better defense if they're going to be able to put this game behind them. TCU isn't THAT good. TCU 37 - 33.
(15) LSU (3 - 1) 27 @ (5) Auburn (4 - 0) 31: Correct. LSU got exposed by the other Tigers. They'll have their work cut out for them the rest of the way. Auburn just keeps on rolling. Auburn 41 - 7.
(6) Texas A&M (4 - 0) 30 @ (12) Mississippi State (4 - 0) 34: Correct. I really like the Bulldogs, but LSU and Texas A&M aren't quite as good as a year ago. Let's not get ahead of ourselves with Mississippi State. Mississippi State 48 - 31.
(7) Baylor (4 - 0) 30 @ Texas (2 - 2) 21: Correct. Mack Brown left the cupboard bare in Austin, but Baylor can make a run to the playoffs if they can play some defense. Baylor 28 - 7.
Utah (3 - 1) 28 @ (8) UCLA (4 - 0) 37: No. I predicted that the Utes would be able to move the ball, but figured UCLA would be able to outscore them. Guess I was wrong! Utah 30 - 28.
(14) Stanford (3 - 1) 17 @ (9) Notre Dame (4 - 0) 23: Correct. Notre Dame just keeps winning. Their schedule doesn't get any easier, but they should be in the playoff conversation throughout the season. Notre Dame 17 - 14.
(19) Nebraska (5 - 0) 20 @ (10) Michigan State (3 - 1) 24: Correct. Another good game that the Spartans were able to gut out with their defense. Michigan State 27 - 22.
Vanderbilt (1 - 4) 17 @ (12) Georgia (3 - 1) 30: Correct. You don't think coaches matter? Vandy loses theirs and they don't look competitive this season. Georgia 44 - 17.
Arizona State (3 - 1) 24 @ (16) USC (3 - 1) 31: No. Fluke play. That's all I can say. Arizona State 38 - 34.
(17) Wisconsin (3 - 1) 27 @ Northwestern (2 - 2) 17: No. It looks like the Wildcats will be a force to be reckoned with in the Big Ten. And with very little depth in the conference, who knows how far they can go? Northwestern 20 - 14.
(20) Ohio State (3 - 1) 34 @ Maryland (4 - 1) 28: Correct. The Buckeyes are really a lot better than the 20th team in the country. Ohio State 52 - 24.
Iowa State (1 - 3) 17 @ (23) Oklahoma State (3 - 1) 35: Correct. Don't count the Cowboys out it they keep playing well. Don't forget that their only loss so far is to top-ranked Florida State. Oklahoma State 37 - 20.
SMU (0 - 4) 10 @ (22) East Carolina (3 - 1) 48: Correct. SMU looked surprisingly good, but ECU is the class of the non-power conference teams. East Carolina 45 - 24.
Texas Tech (2 - 2) 20 @ (23) Kansas State (3 - 1) 28: Correct. The Wildcats are another quality one-loss team, with theirs coming against Auburn in a close game. Kansas State 45 - 13.
Virginia Tech (3 - 2) 31 @ North Carolina (2 - 2) 27: Correct. The Hokies looked as good as they have since the opening win over Ohio State. This one wasn't as close as the final score. Virginia Tech 34 - 17.
N.C. State (4 - 1) 31 @ Clemson (2 - 2) 34: Correct. I picked this one to be close but it really never was...except at the opening kickoff. Clemson 41 - 0.
Miami (3 - 2) 30 @ Georgia Tech (4 - 0) 27: No. It looks like the Yellow Jackets may be the real deal. Georgia Tech 28 - 17.
South Carolina (3 - 2) 27 @ Kentucky (3 - 1) 24: No. I said it wouldn't be the upset of the week. I was right, but it was still an upset, which I missed. Kentucky 45 - 38.
Michigan (2 - 3) 24 @ Rutgers (4 - 1) 30: Correct. Brady Hoke's days in East Lansing are definitely numbered. Rutgers 26 - 24.
Kansas (2 - 2) 6 @ West Virginia (2 - 2) 34: Correct. I was pretty close on this one. West Virginia 33 - 14.
California (3 - 1) 37 @ Washington State (2 - 3) 31: Correct. Did I mention that Cal could put points on the board? When I saw this score, I was certain it was like a four overtime affair. No, those points were all scored in regulation. California 60 - 59.
Last Week: 16 - 8
Overall: 103 - 45
Thursday:
Arizona (4 - 0) 31 @ (2) Oregon (4 - 0) 45: No. What a start to the weekend. I don't think many people saw this one coming. Arizona 31 - 24.
Saturday:
Wake Forest (2 - 3) 13 @ (1) Florida State (4 - 0) 31: Correct. No surprise, but the 'Noles still have Notre Dame looming. Florida State 43 - 3.
(3) Alabama (4 - 0) 27 @ (11) Ole Miss (4 - 0) 26: No. I sure was right about the Tide getting tested. What a comeback by the Rebels. Ole Miss 23 - 17
(4) Oklahoma (4 - 0) 27 @ (25) TCU (3 - 0) 24: No. The Sooners need to play better defense if they're going to be able to put this game behind them. TCU isn't THAT good. TCU 37 - 33.
(15) LSU (3 - 1) 27 @ (5) Auburn (4 - 0) 31: Correct. LSU got exposed by the other Tigers. They'll have their work cut out for them the rest of the way. Auburn just keeps on rolling. Auburn 41 - 7.
(6) Texas A&M (4 - 0) 30 @ (12) Mississippi State (4 - 0) 34: Correct. I really like the Bulldogs, but LSU and Texas A&M aren't quite as good as a year ago. Let's not get ahead of ourselves with Mississippi State. Mississippi State 48 - 31.
(7) Baylor (4 - 0) 30 @ Texas (2 - 2) 21: Correct. Mack Brown left the cupboard bare in Austin, but Baylor can make a run to the playoffs if they can play some defense. Baylor 28 - 7.
Utah (3 - 1) 28 @ (8) UCLA (4 - 0) 37: No. I predicted that the Utes would be able to move the ball, but figured UCLA would be able to outscore them. Guess I was wrong! Utah 30 - 28.
(14) Stanford (3 - 1) 17 @ (9) Notre Dame (4 - 0) 23: Correct. Notre Dame just keeps winning. Their schedule doesn't get any easier, but they should be in the playoff conversation throughout the season. Notre Dame 17 - 14.
(19) Nebraska (5 - 0) 20 @ (10) Michigan State (3 - 1) 24: Correct. Another good game that the Spartans were able to gut out with their defense. Michigan State 27 - 22.
Vanderbilt (1 - 4) 17 @ (12) Georgia (3 - 1) 30: Correct. You don't think coaches matter? Vandy loses theirs and they don't look competitive this season. Georgia 44 - 17.
Arizona State (3 - 1) 24 @ (16) USC (3 - 1) 31: No. Fluke play. That's all I can say. Arizona State 38 - 34.
(17) Wisconsin (3 - 1) 27 @ Northwestern (2 - 2) 17: No. It looks like the Wildcats will be a force to be reckoned with in the Big Ten. And with very little depth in the conference, who knows how far they can go? Northwestern 20 - 14.
(20) Ohio State (3 - 1) 34 @ Maryland (4 - 1) 28: Correct. The Buckeyes are really a lot better than the 20th team in the country. Ohio State 52 - 24.
Iowa State (1 - 3) 17 @ (23) Oklahoma State (3 - 1) 35: Correct. Don't count the Cowboys out it they keep playing well. Don't forget that their only loss so far is to top-ranked Florida State. Oklahoma State 37 - 20.
SMU (0 - 4) 10 @ (22) East Carolina (3 - 1) 48: Correct. SMU looked surprisingly good, but ECU is the class of the non-power conference teams. East Carolina 45 - 24.
Texas Tech (2 - 2) 20 @ (23) Kansas State (3 - 1) 28: Correct. The Wildcats are another quality one-loss team, with theirs coming against Auburn in a close game. Kansas State 45 - 13.
Virginia Tech (3 - 2) 31 @ North Carolina (2 - 2) 27: Correct. The Hokies looked as good as they have since the opening win over Ohio State. This one wasn't as close as the final score. Virginia Tech 34 - 17.
N.C. State (4 - 1) 31 @ Clemson (2 - 2) 34: Correct. I picked this one to be close but it really never was...except at the opening kickoff. Clemson 41 - 0.
Miami (3 - 2) 30 @ Georgia Tech (4 - 0) 27: No. It looks like the Yellow Jackets may be the real deal. Georgia Tech 28 - 17.
South Carolina (3 - 2) 27 @ Kentucky (3 - 1) 24: No. I said it wouldn't be the upset of the week. I was right, but it was still an upset, which I missed. Kentucky 45 - 38.
Michigan (2 - 3) 24 @ Rutgers (4 - 1) 30: Correct. Brady Hoke's days in East Lansing are definitely numbered. Rutgers 26 - 24.
Kansas (2 - 2) 6 @ West Virginia (2 - 2) 34: Correct. I was pretty close on this one. West Virginia 33 - 14.
California (3 - 1) 37 @ Washington State (2 - 3) 31: Correct. Did I mention that Cal could put points on the board? When I saw this score, I was certain it was like a four overtime affair. No, those points were all scored in regulation. California 60 - 59.
WEEK 5 NFL PICKS RECAP AND THURSDAY NIGHT PICK
As I mentioned in my predictions blog, I thought the Miami Dolphins could begin popping the champagne now, because I didn't think the two unbeatens left before this weekend would stay that way for long. Well, it turned out they didn't make it past Sunday night. One of them I predicted would lose, the other one I didn't, but wasn't at all surprised by the Bengals' loss to the Pats. Unfortunately, I correctly picked the Monday night score, which meant another loss for Washington. Overall, not a bad week for the picks.
In a side note, this is my 200th posting since beginning this blog a couple of years ago. In that time, I've also written two books, the second of which, "Roughing the Passer - A PK Frazier Novel" will be published later this month.
Before we get to the full recap, there's a potentially great game on tap for tonight.
Indianapolis (3 - 2) 27 @ Houston (3 - 2) 24:
The Colts have run off three wins in a row after a tough start, while the Texans have dropped two of their last three after jumping out to 2 - 0 to start the season. These Thursday night games definitely favor the home team, but both participants have to adjust to an abbreviated preparation schedule and recovery time. This one is just too close to make a definitive call, but I'm going to go with the Colts. I think their offense is better than Houston's and their defense is playing pretty well.
WEEK 5 PICKS RECAP
Last Week: 11 - 4
Overall: 49 - 27
Thursday Night:
Minnesota (2 - 2) 24 @ Green Bay (2 - 2) 28: Correct. This one went pretty much as I thought, this the exception that the Vikes never got untracked. Green Bay 42 - 10.
Sunday:
Chicago (2 - 2) 20 @ Carolina (2 - 2) 27: Correct. Like I said when I made the pick, it's the NFL and miraculous recoveries happen. Carolina 31 - 24.
Cleveland (1 - 2) 23 @ Tennessee (1 - 3) 20: Correct. When I said the Browns were just a little better than the Titans, I couldn't have been more accurate. Cleveland 29 - 28.
St. Louis (1 - 2) 24 @ Philadelphia (3 -1) 30: Correct. This time it was the Eagles who almost lost the big lead, but they held on to go 4 - 1 and keep pace with Dallas. Philadelphia 34 - 28.
Atlanta (2 - 2) 27 @ New York Giants (2 - 2) 28: Correct. I didn't think any team looked worse than the Giants through week two. Now, I don't think many teams look any better. New York Giants 30 - 20.
Tampa Bay (1 - 3) 21 @ New Orleans (1 - 3) 24: Correct. The Bucs almost pulled a second big upset in a row. I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a nice run the rest of the season. New Orleans 37 - 31 OT.
Houston (3 - 1) 20 @ Dallas (3 - 1) 28: Correct. With their fourth win, Dallas only needs to go 5 - 6 the rest of the way to get off their 8 - 8 bubble of the past few seasons. If anyone can choke to fall to 8 - 8, it's Romo and the Cowboys. Dallas 20 - 17.
Buffalo (2 - 2) 17 @ Detroit (3 - 1) 27: No. There are going to be a lot of 8 - 8 type teams this season. These might be two of them unless they can get some consistency. Buffalo 17 - 14.
Baltimore (3 - 1) 30 @ Indianapolis (2 - 2) 27: No. I underestimated how well the Colts would be able to handle the Ravens' offense. Now it's on to Houston for a tough Thursday nighter. Indianapolis 20 - 13.
Pittsburgh (2 - 2) 23 @ Jacksonville (0 - 4) 20: Correct. The Steelers made it to 3 - 2 somehow. The Jags are still looking for that first win. Pittsburgh 17 - 9.
Arizona (3 - 0) 30 @ Denver (2 - 1) 34: Correct. These Broncos are looking more like last year's version every week. If Arizona's Carson Palmer had been healthy at QB, this one would definitely have been a lot closer. Denver 41 - 20.
Kansas City (2 -2) 27 @ San Francisco (2 - 2) 24: No. This was a very good football game. There's no way to count these two teams out, even if 'Niners' coach Jim Harbaugh is rumored to have lost the locker room. San Francisco 22 - 17.
New York Jets (1 - 3) 20 @ San Diego (3 - 1) 24: Correct. I don't know if this game says more about the Chargers or the Jets. It's probably a little of both. San Diego 31 - 0.
Cincinnati (3 - 0) 27 @ New England (2 - 2) 20: No.I was tempted to take the Patriots, just to be contrarian, but it didn't surprise me at all to see them come out and try to dispel the rumors of their premature demise. New England 43 - 17.
Monday:
Seattle (2 - 1) 27 @ Washington (1 - 3) 17: Correct. Washington actually had a chance in this game, but it showed how far the Redskins still have to go to be a playoff caliber team. Too bad the owner can't get fired. Seattle 27 - 17.
In a side note, this is my 200th posting since beginning this blog a couple of years ago. In that time, I've also written two books, the second of which, "Roughing the Passer - A PK Frazier Novel" will be published later this month.
Before we get to the full recap, there's a potentially great game on tap for tonight.
Indianapolis (3 - 2) 27 @ Houston (3 - 2) 24:
The Colts have run off three wins in a row after a tough start, while the Texans have dropped two of their last three after jumping out to 2 - 0 to start the season. These Thursday night games definitely favor the home team, but both participants have to adjust to an abbreviated preparation schedule and recovery time. This one is just too close to make a definitive call, but I'm going to go with the Colts. I think their offense is better than Houston's and their defense is playing pretty well.
WEEK 5 PICKS RECAP
Last Week: 11 - 4
Overall: 49 - 27
Thursday Night:
Minnesota (2 - 2) 24 @ Green Bay (2 - 2) 28: Correct. This one went pretty much as I thought, this the exception that the Vikes never got untracked. Green Bay 42 - 10.
Sunday:
Chicago (2 - 2) 20 @ Carolina (2 - 2) 27: Correct. Like I said when I made the pick, it's the NFL and miraculous recoveries happen. Carolina 31 - 24.
Cleveland (1 - 2) 23 @ Tennessee (1 - 3) 20: Correct. When I said the Browns were just a little better than the Titans, I couldn't have been more accurate. Cleveland 29 - 28.
St. Louis (1 - 2) 24 @ Philadelphia (3 -1) 30: Correct. This time it was the Eagles who almost lost the big lead, but they held on to go 4 - 1 and keep pace with Dallas. Philadelphia 34 - 28.
Atlanta (2 - 2) 27 @ New York Giants (2 - 2) 28: Correct. I didn't think any team looked worse than the Giants through week two. Now, I don't think many teams look any better. New York Giants 30 - 20.
Tampa Bay (1 - 3) 21 @ New Orleans (1 - 3) 24: Correct. The Bucs almost pulled a second big upset in a row. I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a nice run the rest of the season. New Orleans 37 - 31 OT.
Houston (3 - 1) 20 @ Dallas (3 - 1) 28: Correct. With their fourth win, Dallas only needs to go 5 - 6 the rest of the way to get off their 8 - 8 bubble of the past few seasons. If anyone can choke to fall to 8 - 8, it's Romo and the Cowboys. Dallas 20 - 17.
Buffalo (2 - 2) 17 @ Detroit (3 - 1) 27: No. There are going to be a lot of 8 - 8 type teams this season. These might be two of them unless they can get some consistency. Buffalo 17 - 14.
Baltimore (3 - 1) 30 @ Indianapolis (2 - 2) 27: No. I underestimated how well the Colts would be able to handle the Ravens' offense. Now it's on to Houston for a tough Thursday nighter. Indianapolis 20 - 13.
Pittsburgh (2 - 2) 23 @ Jacksonville (0 - 4) 20: Correct. The Steelers made it to 3 - 2 somehow. The Jags are still looking for that first win. Pittsburgh 17 - 9.
Arizona (3 - 0) 30 @ Denver (2 - 1) 34: Correct. These Broncos are looking more like last year's version every week. If Arizona's Carson Palmer had been healthy at QB, this one would definitely have been a lot closer. Denver 41 - 20.
Kansas City (2 -2) 27 @ San Francisco (2 - 2) 24: No. This was a very good football game. There's no way to count these two teams out, even if 'Niners' coach Jim Harbaugh is rumored to have lost the locker room. San Francisco 22 - 17.
New York Jets (1 - 3) 20 @ San Diego (3 - 1) 24: Correct. I don't know if this game says more about the Chargers or the Jets. It's probably a little of both. San Diego 31 - 0.
Cincinnati (3 - 0) 27 @ New England (2 - 2) 20: No.I was tempted to take the Patriots, just to be contrarian, but it didn't surprise me at all to see them come out and try to dispel the rumors of their premature demise. New England 43 - 17.
Monday:
Seattle (2 - 1) 27 @ Washington (1 - 3) 17: Correct. Washington actually had a chance in this game, but it showed how far the Redskins still have to go to be a playoff caliber team. Too bad the owner can't get fired. Seattle 27 - 17.
Saturday, October 4, 2014
WEEK 5 NFL PICKS
We're only in week five, but there are only two unbeatens left. I doubt the 1972 Miami Dolphins have much to worry about this season. They might as well pop the champagne now. One of those teams without a loss has to travel to Denver to face the Broncos after Peyton Manning had an extra week to prepare. Almost every other game is very difficult to predict, especially the battle for Texas between two 3 - 1 teams, so I'm just hoping to get eight or nine right to stay above .500 for the week.
Thursday Night (copied from a previous blog):
Minnesota (2 - 2) 24 @ Green Bay (2 - 2) 28:
Both teams got big victories last week to keep pace in the NFC North, which may be one of the tightest in the league. Terry Bridgewater is out for the Vikes, replace by Christian Ponder for tonight's game. Short week, different QB, coming off a big win...I don't feel good about Minnesota's chances. But this is the NFL, which could stand for "Not For Long" when it comes to trying to figure out how long things stay the same. Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau Field on a Thursday night against a division rival that has been up and down this season and without Adrian Peterson makes me lean toward the Pack.
Sunday:
Chicago (2 - 2) 20 @ Carolina (2 - 2) 27: The Panthers have looked pretty lame while losing their last two games. While I would like to think that will continue, it's the NFL so I look for a miraculous recovery from Carolina.
Cleveland (1 - 2) 23 @ Tennessee (1 - 3) 20: Both teams are coming off a bye week. Oh, sorry, it just seemed like the Titans took the week off. I think the Browns are a little bit better than Tennessee.
St. Louis (1 - 2) 24 @ Philadelphia (3 -1) 30: The Eagles weren't clicking on offense at San Francisco, but they should have a better week at home.
Atlanta (2 - 2) 27 @ New York Giants (2 - 2) 28: The Falcons have been inconsistent while the Giants have gone from looking terrible to looking unbeatable. In a close game I'll take the home team.
Tampa Bay (1 - 3) 21 @ New Orleans (1 - 3) 24: Conventional wisdom would say that the Saints will surely turn it around at home. I'll go with that, but if the Bucs pull the upset, New Orleans' playoff chances are probably next to nil.
Houston (3 - 1) 20 @ Dallas (3 - 1) 28: Who would have thought these two teams would be division leaders a quarter of the way through the season and that this battle for Texas would be one of the premier games of the week? The Cowboys lead the league in rushing and the Texans have been vulnerable on the ground.
Buffalo (2 - 2) 17 @ Detroit (3 - 1) 27: Other than laying an egg on the road at Carolina, the Lions have been living up to expectations. The Bills got off to a hot start, but haven't been able to generate any offense the last couple of weeks. Their strength is their rushing defense, but the Lions win through the air.
Baltimore (3 - 1) 30 @ Indianapolis (2 - 2) 27: The Ravens have been playing as well as anyone since an opening week loss to Cincinnati. The Colts have put up big numbers on two teams with one win between them. I'm going to take Baltimore to continue their good play.
Pittsburgh (2 - 2) 23 @ Jacksonville (0 - 4) 20: The Steelers let one winless Florida team get their first victory last week. I don't think Mike Tomlin wants his team to let the Jaguars collect their initial victory at his team's expense.
Arizona (3 - 0) 30 @ Denver (2 - 1) 34: The Cardinals are sitting atop the NFC West, what many believe to be the toughest division in football. But they have to match up with what may be the second toughest, the AFC West. I don't see the Broncos losing this one at home.
Kansas City (2 -2) 27 @ San Francisco (2 - 2) 24: The Chiefs have really turned things around in the last couple of weeks. There is a lot of speculation about 'Niners' coach Jim Harbaugh's future in San Francisco. Despite their win over the Eagles last week, I still think the home team is vulnerable.
New York Jets (1 - 3) 20 @ San Diego (3 - 1) 24: You would think the Jets have two chances in San Diego - slim and none. But as I like to say, this is the NFL and strange things happen. I'm tempted to take the Jets here, but I just can't do it.
Cincinnati (3 - 0) 27 @ New England (2 - 2) 20: There are many that are predicting the demise of the Patriots after they were routed last week by the Chiefs. As ESPN's Lee Corso likes to say, "Not so fast my friend." But unfortunately for New England, they have to face an undefeated Bengals team coming off their bye week.
Monday:
Seattle (2 - 1) 27 @ Washington (1 - 3) 17: Washington is fifth in total offense and twelfth in total defense, yet are 1 - 3 on the season. They host the reigning Super Bowl champs in what is a must win situation. Given the way Kirk Cousins self destructed against the Giants, I don't give them much of a chance against a very opportunistic defense. I hope I'm wrong.
Thursday Night (copied from a previous blog):
Minnesota (2 - 2) 24 @ Green Bay (2 - 2) 28:
Both teams got big victories last week to keep pace in the NFC North, which may be one of the tightest in the league. Terry Bridgewater is out for the Vikes, replace by Christian Ponder for tonight's game. Short week, different QB, coming off a big win...I don't feel good about Minnesota's chances. But this is the NFL, which could stand for "Not For Long" when it comes to trying to figure out how long things stay the same. Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau Field on a Thursday night against a division rival that has been up and down this season and without Adrian Peterson makes me lean toward the Pack.
Sunday:
Chicago (2 - 2) 20 @ Carolina (2 - 2) 27: The Panthers have looked pretty lame while losing their last two games. While I would like to think that will continue, it's the NFL so I look for a miraculous recovery from Carolina.
Cleveland (1 - 2) 23 @ Tennessee (1 - 3) 20: Both teams are coming off a bye week. Oh, sorry, it just seemed like the Titans took the week off. I think the Browns are a little bit better than Tennessee.
St. Louis (1 - 2) 24 @ Philadelphia (3 -1) 30: The Eagles weren't clicking on offense at San Francisco, but they should have a better week at home.
Atlanta (2 - 2) 27 @ New York Giants (2 - 2) 28: The Falcons have been inconsistent while the Giants have gone from looking terrible to looking unbeatable. In a close game I'll take the home team.
Tampa Bay (1 - 3) 21 @ New Orleans (1 - 3) 24: Conventional wisdom would say that the Saints will surely turn it around at home. I'll go with that, but if the Bucs pull the upset, New Orleans' playoff chances are probably next to nil.
Houston (3 - 1) 20 @ Dallas (3 - 1) 28: Who would have thought these two teams would be division leaders a quarter of the way through the season and that this battle for Texas would be one of the premier games of the week? The Cowboys lead the league in rushing and the Texans have been vulnerable on the ground.
Buffalo (2 - 2) 17 @ Detroit (3 - 1) 27: Other than laying an egg on the road at Carolina, the Lions have been living up to expectations. The Bills got off to a hot start, but haven't been able to generate any offense the last couple of weeks. Their strength is their rushing defense, but the Lions win through the air.
Baltimore (3 - 1) 30 @ Indianapolis (2 - 2) 27: The Ravens have been playing as well as anyone since an opening week loss to Cincinnati. The Colts have put up big numbers on two teams with one win between them. I'm going to take Baltimore to continue their good play.
Pittsburgh (2 - 2) 23 @ Jacksonville (0 - 4) 20: The Steelers let one winless Florida team get their first victory last week. I don't think Mike Tomlin wants his team to let the Jaguars collect their initial victory at his team's expense.
Arizona (3 - 0) 30 @ Denver (2 - 1) 34: The Cardinals are sitting atop the NFC West, what many believe to be the toughest division in football. But they have to match up with what may be the second toughest, the AFC West. I don't see the Broncos losing this one at home.
Kansas City (2 -2) 27 @ San Francisco (2 - 2) 24: The Chiefs have really turned things around in the last couple of weeks. There is a lot of speculation about 'Niners' coach Jim Harbaugh's future in San Francisco. Despite their win over the Eagles last week, I still think the home team is vulnerable.
New York Jets (1 - 3) 20 @ San Diego (3 - 1) 24: You would think the Jets have two chances in San Diego - slim and none. But as I like to say, this is the NFL and strange things happen. I'm tempted to take the Jets here, but I just can't do it.
Cincinnati (3 - 0) 27 @ New England (2 - 2) 20: There are many that are predicting the demise of the Patriots after they were routed last week by the Chiefs. As ESPN's Lee Corso likes to say, "Not so fast my friend." But unfortunately for New England, they have to face an undefeated Bengals team coming off their bye week.
Monday:
Seattle (2 - 1) 27 @ Washington (1 - 3) 17: Washington is fifth in total offense and twelfth in total defense, yet are 1 - 3 on the season. They host the reigning Super Bowl champs in what is a must win situation. Given the way Kirk Cousins self destructed against the Giants, I don't give them much of a chance against a very opportunistic defense. I hope I'm wrong.
WEEK 6 COLLEGE PICKS
We don't just stick our toe into the conference season water, we dive into the deep end of the pool. There are six games matching top 25 foes, three of those in the SEC alone. The SEC West is going to be a dog fight, with six of the seven teams in the division ranked in the top 25. There are even some important league games involving teams outside the top twenty-five, such as NC State at Clemson and Miami at Georgia Tech in the ACC and South Carolina at Kentucky in a rare SEC game where neither team is ranked. So here we go for this week's predictions.
Overall: 87 - 30
Saturday:
Wake Forest (2 - 3) 13 @ (1) Florida State (4 - 0) 31: It doesn't look like there is anyone left on the Seminoles' schedule that will pose a significant challenge. The Demon Deacons certainly won't.
(3) Alabama (4 - 0) 27 @ (11) Ole Miss (4 - 0) 26: The Crimson Tide will be tested in this one, as will the Rebels. I can't go against the visitors, but an Ole Miss win wouldn't surprise me.
(4) Oklahoma (4 - 0) 27 @ (25) TCU (3 - 0) 24: TCU hasn't been tested this season, to it't difficult to tell if they have what it takes to defeat the Sooners. Oklahoma went into Morgantown and knocked off West Virginia, so I'll go with them to continue their run.
(15) LSU (3 - 1) 27 @ (5) Auburn (4 - 0) 31: LSU got fortunate against Wisconsin and looked pretty average in their loss to Mississippi State. Auburn is tough to beat.
(6) Texas A&M (4 - 0) 30 @ (12) Mississippi State (4 - 0) 34: This is a tossup for me. The Aggies escaped Dallas with an overtime win over Arkansas, while the Bulldogs has had a week to digest their big win over LSU.
(7) Baylor (4 - 0) 30 @ Texas (2 - 2) 21: Texas showed some defensive teeth against Kansas last week, but I don't think they've made enough progress to down the Bears.
Utah (3 - 1) 28 @ (8) UCLA (4 - 0) 37: The Bruins need to play better defensively as the season progresses if they're gong to run the table. Utah is averaging 42 points a game and can move the ball against UCLA, but hasn't exhibited the type of defense needed to win this game.
(14) Stanford (3 - 1) 17 @ (9) Notre Dame (4 - 0) 23: I'm not usually an Irish fan, but this season I think they have a really good team. Stanford's defense is giving up less than a touchdown a game, but they'll be tested by Notre Dame QB Everett Golson.
(19) Nebraska (5 - 0) 20 @ (10) Michigan State (3 - 1) 24: I was not sold on Nebraska earlier in the season, but they still keep winning. The Spartans' loss to Oregon looks a little worse now that the Ducks fell to Arizona Thursday night. But Michigan State's defense should prevail.
Vanderbilt (1 - 4) 17 @ (12) Georgia (3 - 1) 30: Georgia gets a rare opportunity to pick up an easy SEC win. Vandy is trying to rebuild under a new coach.
Arizona State (3 - 1) 24 @ (16) USC (3 - 1) 31: Arizona State's defense was exposed against UCLA. The Trojans don't have the same firepower as the Bruins, but they should have enough to topple the Sun Devils.
(17) Wisconsin (3 - 1) 27 @ Northwestern (2 - 2) 17: After a slow start, Northwestern pulled a huge surprise by knocking off previously unbeaten Penn State on the road last week. Wisconsin hasn't been tested since their opening loss at LSU, but the Badger's defense should be good enough this week.
(20) Ohio State (3 - 1) 34 @ Maryland (4 - 1) 28: Maryland hasn't been impressive but they keep winning. The Byrd Stadium crowd will most certainly be nasty as the Buckeyes make a visit. Ohio State got a wake up call against Virginia Tech and they should be able to outscore the Terps.
Iowa State (1 - 3) 17 @ (23) Oklahoma State (3 - 1) 35: The Cowboys are flying under the radar despite a close loss to Florida State to start the season.
SMU (0 - 4) 10 @ (22) East Carolina (3 - 1) 48: This game could really get out of hand unless the Pirates field some walk-ons in the second half.
Texas Tech (2 - 2) 20 @ (23) Kansas State (3 - 1) 28: The Red Raiders are going to have to play an exceptional game to pull the upset. I don't see it happening.
Virginia Tech (3 - 2) 31 @ North Carolina (2 - 2) 27: The Tar Heels have given up an average of 60 points in their last two games. The Hokies are a couple of late scores from being undefeated. The Tech running game should be able to get on track today.
N.C. State (4 - 1) 31 @ Clemson (2 - 2) 34: Clemson is battle tested and N.C. State is coming off a loss to Florida State where they gave up a 17 point first quarter lead. I'll make my nieces happy by finally picking the Tigers in a close one.
Miami (3 - 2) 30 @ Georgia Tech (4 - 0) 27: The Hurricanes played what may be their best game in a long time in defeating Duke last week. Georgia Tech squeaked past a rebuilding Virginia Tech and otherwise has been unimpressive in wins over lesser opponents.
South Carolina (3 - 2) 27 @ Kentucky (3 - 1) 24: The Gamecocks have played two bad games in a row since knocking off Georgia. Mark Stoops has Kentucky playing pretty well. Is this the upset of the week? Probably not.
Michigan (2 - 3) 24 @ Rutgers (4 - 1) 30: Brady Hoke's days in East Lansing are probably numbered, and today's game won't help his cause.
Kansas (2 - 2) 6 @ West Virginia (2 - 2) 34: Kansas fired coach Charlie Weis last week following a 23 - 0 loss to Texas. West Virginia's two losses are to top five teams. The Jayhawks have no chance.
California (3 - 1) 37 @ Washington State (2 - 3) 31: Cal is a pretty good football team that no one is talking about. They can really put points on the board.
Overall: 87 - 30
Saturday:
Wake Forest (2 - 3) 13 @ (1) Florida State (4 - 0) 31: It doesn't look like there is anyone left on the Seminoles' schedule that will pose a significant challenge. The Demon Deacons certainly won't.
(3) Alabama (4 - 0) 27 @ (11) Ole Miss (4 - 0) 26: The Crimson Tide will be tested in this one, as will the Rebels. I can't go against the visitors, but an Ole Miss win wouldn't surprise me.
(4) Oklahoma (4 - 0) 27 @ (25) TCU (3 - 0) 24: TCU hasn't been tested this season, to it't difficult to tell if they have what it takes to defeat the Sooners. Oklahoma went into Morgantown and knocked off West Virginia, so I'll go with them to continue their run.
(15) LSU (3 - 1) 27 @ (5) Auburn (4 - 0) 31: LSU got fortunate against Wisconsin and looked pretty average in their loss to Mississippi State. Auburn is tough to beat.
(6) Texas A&M (4 - 0) 30 @ (12) Mississippi State (4 - 0) 34: This is a tossup for me. The Aggies escaped Dallas with an overtime win over Arkansas, while the Bulldogs has had a week to digest their big win over LSU.
(7) Baylor (4 - 0) 30 @ Texas (2 - 2) 21: Texas showed some defensive teeth against Kansas last week, but I don't think they've made enough progress to down the Bears.
Utah (3 - 1) 28 @ (8) UCLA (4 - 0) 37: The Bruins need to play better defensively as the season progresses if they're gong to run the table. Utah is averaging 42 points a game and can move the ball against UCLA, but hasn't exhibited the type of defense needed to win this game.
(14) Stanford (3 - 1) 17 @ (9) Notre Dame (4 - 0) 23: I'm not usually an Irish fan, but this season I think they have a really good team. Stanford's defense is giving up less than a touchdown a game, but they'll be tested by Notre Dame QB Everett Golson.
(19) Nebraska (5 - 0) 20 @ (10) Michigan State (3 - 1) 24: I was not sold on Nebraska earlier in the season, but they still keep winning. The Spartans' loss to Oregon looks a little worse now that the Ducks fell to Arizona Thursday night. But Michigan State's defense should prevail.
Vanderbilt (1 - 4) 17 @ (12) Georgia (3 - 1) 30: Georgia gets a rare opportunity to pick up an easy SEC win. Vandy is trying to rebuild under a new coach.
Arizona State (3 - 1) 24 @ (16) USC (3 - 1) 31: Arizona State's defense was exposed against UCLA. The Trojans don't have the same firepower as the Bruins, but they should have enough to topple the Sun Devils.
(17) Wisconsin (3 - 1) 27 @ Northwestern (2 - 2) 17: After a slow start, Northwestern pulled a huge surprise by knocking off previously unbeaten Penn State on the road last week. Wisconsin hasn't been tested since their opening loss at LSU, but the Badger's defense should be good enough this week.
(20) Ohio State (3 - 1) 34 @ Maryland (4 - 1) 28: Maryland hasn't been impressive but they keep winning. The Byrd Stadium crowd will most certainly be nasty as the Buckeyes make a visit. Ohio State got a wake up call against Virginia Tech and they should be able to outscore the Terps.
Iowa State (1 - 3) 17 @ (23) Oklahoma State (3 - 1) 35: The Cowboys are flying under the radar despite a close loss to Florida State to start the season.
SMU (0 - 4) 10 @ (22) East Carolina (3 - 1) 48: This game could really get out of hand unless the Pirates field some walk-ons in the second half.
Texas Tech (2 - 2) 20 @ (23) Kansas State (3 - 1) 28: The Red Raiders are going to have to play an exceptional game to pull the upset. I don't see it happening.
Virginia Tech (3 - 2) 31 @ North Carolina (2 - 2) 27: The Tar Heels have given up an average of 60 points in their last two games. The Hokies are a couple of late scores from being undefeated. The Tech running game should be able to get on track today.
N.C. State (4 - 1) 31 @ Clemson (2 - 2) 34: Clemson is battle tested and N.C. State is coming off a loss to Florida State where they gave up a 17 point first quarter lead. I'll make my nieces happy by finally picking the Tigers in a close one.
Miami (3 - 2) 30 @ Georgia Tech (4 - 0) 27: The Hurricanes played what may be their best game in a long time in defeating Duke last week. Georgia Tech squeaked past a rebuilding Virginia Tech and otherwise has been unimpressive in wins over lesser opponents.
South Carolina (3 - 2) 27 @ Kentucky (3 - 1) 24: The Gamecocks have played two bad games in a row since knocking off Georgia. Mark Stoops has Kentucky playing pretty well. Is this the upset of the week? Probably not.
Michigan (2 - 3) 24 @ Rutgers (4 - 1) 30: Brady Hoke's days in East Lansing are probably numbered, and today's game won't help his cause.
Kansas (2 - 2) 6 @ West Virginia (2 - 2) 34: Kansas fired coach Charlie Weis last week following a 23 - 0 loss to Texas. West Virginia's two losses are to top five teams. The Jayhawks have no chance.
California (3 - 1) 37 @ Washington State (2 - 3) 31: Cal is a pretty good football team that no one is talking about. They can really put points on the board.
Thursday, October 2, 2014
WEEK 4 NFL PICKS RECAP
The week got off to a miserable start with Washington's Kirk Cousins doing his impression of Peyton Manning in the Super Bowl. But at least I finished above the .500 point for the week.
Last Week: 7 - 6
Overall: 38 -23
New York Giants (1 - 2) 20 @ Washington (1 - 2) 27: No. The less written about this, the better. Is Joe Theismann healthy? Giants 45 - 14.
Green Bay (1 - 2) 23 @ Chicago (2 - 1) 24:No panic in Green Bay yet. Rodgers came through in a big way against their rivals. No. Green Bay 38 - 17.
Buffalo (2 - 1) 17 @ Houston (2 - 1) 20: Correct. At least one game went as I thought it would. Maybe the best pick of the week. Houston 23 - 17.
Tennessee (1 - 2) 24 @ Indianapolis (1 - 2) 30: Correct. The Colts have put themselves back in the playoff conversation, especially with their weak division Indianapolis 41 - 17.
Carolina (2 - 1) 16 @ Baltimore (2 - 1) 23: Correct. I wasn't surprised that the Ravens won, but the score is a bit of a shocker. What's happened to the Panther defense? Baltimore 38 - 10.
Detroit (2 - 1) 27 @ New York Jets (1 - 2) 21: Correct. The Lions are getting it done and lead a very tough division. But their still Detroit and it's still early. Detroit 24 - 17.
Tampa Bay (0 - 3) 24 @ Pittsburgh (2 - 1) 31: No. How did the Steelers let this one get away? Bad loss in Pittsburgh. Tampa Bay 27 - 24.
Miami (1 - 2) 20 @ Oakland (0 - 3) 24: No. The Dolphins had high expectations after an opening victory over the Patriots, but they've failed to win since. The Raiders have simply failed to win. But it's the NFL, the Dolphins are travelling west and will be facing a hostile environment. No. Miami 38 - 14.
Jacksonville (0 - 3) 17 @ San Diego (2 - 1) 34: Correct. I came pretty close to nailing this game, kind of like the Chargers nailed the Jags. San Diego 33 - 14.
Philadelphia (3 - 0) 27 @ San Francisco (1 - 2) 28: Correct. All I can say is, I like it when I'm right. San Francisco 26 - 21.
Atlanta (2 - 1) 30 @ Minnesota (1 - 2) 20: No. And I don't when I'm wrong... Minnesota 41 - 28.
New Orleans (1 - 2) 27 @ Dallas (2 - 1) 24: No. Don't look now, but the 'Boys appear to have that nation's team thing going on again. Or it could be the Saints just aren't a very good football team right now. All I know is the Cowboys are tied with Philadelphia at the top of the NFC East and New Orleans is miraculously only one game back in the NFC South. Dallas 38 - 17.
New England (2 -1) 27 @ Kansas City (1 - 2) 30: Correct. The Chiefs and Patriots are going in different directions, as Andy Reid has KC on the right track, at least for the last couple of weeks. Stay tuned, though. It's a long season. Kansas City 41 - 14.
Last Week: 7 - 6
Overall: 38 -23
New York Giants (1 - 2) 20 @ Washington (1 - 2) 27: No. The less written about this, the better. Is Joe Theismann healthy? Giants 45 - 14.
Green Bay (1 - 2) 23 @ Chicago (2 - 1) 24:No panic in Green Bay yet. Rodgers came through in a big way against their rivals. No. Green Bay 38 - 17.
Buffalo (2 - 1) 17 @ Houston (2 - 1) 20: Correct. At least one game went as I thought it would. Maybe the best pick of the week. Houston 23 - 17.
Tennessee (1 - 2) 24 @ Indianapolis (1 - 2) 30: Correct. The Colts have put themselves back in the playoff conversation, especially with their weak division Indianapolis 41 - 17.
Carolina (2 - 1) 16 @ Baltimore (2 - 1) 23: Correct. I wasn't surprised that the Ravens won, but the score is a bit of a shocker. What's happened to the Panther defense? Baltimore 38 - 10.
Detroit (2 - 1) 27 @ New York Jets (1 - 2) 21: Correct. The Lions are getting it done and lead a very tough division. But their still Detroit and it's still early. Detroit 24 - 17.
Tampa Bay (0 - 3) 24 @ Pittsburgh (2 - 1) 31: No. How did the Steelers let this one get away? Bad loss in Pittsburgh. Tampa Bay 27 - 24.
Miami (1 - 2) 20 @ Oakland (0 - 3) 24: No. The Dolphins had high expectations after an opening victory over the Patriots, but they've failed to win since. The Raiders have simply failed to win. But it's the NFL, the Dolphins are travelling west and will be facing a hostile environment. No. Miami 38 - 14.
Jacksonville (0 - 3) 17 @ San Diego (2 - 1) 34: Correct. I came pretty close to nailing this game, kind of like the Chargers nailed the Jags. San Diego 33 - 14.
Philadelphia (3 - 0) 27 @ San Francisco (1 - 2) 28: Correct. All I can say is, I like it when I'm right. San Francisco 26 - 21.
Atlanta (2 - 1) 30 @ Minnesota (1 - 2) 20: No. And I don't when I'm wrong... Minnesota 41 - 28.
New Orleans (1 - 2) 27 @ Dallas (2 - 1) 24: No. Don't look now, but the 'Boys appear to have that nation's team thing going on again. Or it could be the Saints just aren't a very good football team right now. All I know is the Cowboys are tied with Philadelphia at the top of the NFC East and New Orleans is miraculously only one game back in the NFC South. Dallas 38 - 17.
New England (2 -1) 27 @ Kansas City (1 - 2) 30: Correct. The Chiefs and Patriots are going in different directions, as Andy Reid has KC on the right track, at least for the last couple of weeks. Stay tuned, though. It's a long season. Kansas City 41 - 14.
NFL AND COLLEGE THURSDAY NIGHT PICKS
NFL:
Minnesota (2 - 2) 24 @ Green Bay (2 - 2) 28:
Both teams got big victories last week to keep pace in the NFC North, which may be one of the tightest in the league. Terry Bridgewater is out for the Vikes, replace by Christian Ponder for tonight's game. Short week, different QB, coming off a big win...I don't feel good about Minnesota's chances. But this is the NFL, which could stand for "Not For Long" when it comes to trying to figure out how long things stay the same. Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau Field on a Thursday night against a division rival that has been up and down this season and without Adrian Peterson makes me lean toward the Pack.
College:
Arizona (4 - 0) 31 @ (2) Oregon (4 - 0) 45:
The Wildcats are undefeated heading to Eugene to take on the Ducks, but they've played a weak schedule and barely got past Cal in their last game. Oregon has too much for Arizona, but this will most likely be a very high scoring game. Arizona will need to rely on turnovers and a few big plays to stay in this one and maybe have a chance to pull the big upset at the end. I hope to stay up late enough to see some of the game, because it could be very entertaining. Then again, Oregon may put it away early and I'll get some much needed sleep.
Minnesota (2 - 2) 24 @ Green Bay (2 - 2) 28:
Both teams got big victories last week to keep pace in the NFC North, which may be one of the tightest in the league. Terry Bridgewater is out for the Vikes, replace by Christian Ponder for tonight's game. Short week, different QB, coming off a big win...I don't feel good about Minnesota's chances. But this is the NFL, which could stand for "Not For Long" when it comes to trying to figure out how long things stay the same. Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau Field on a Thursday night against a division rival that has been up and down this season and without Adrian Peterson makes me lean toward the Pack.
College:
Arizona (4 - 0) 31 @ (2) Oregon (4 - 0) 45:
The Wildcats are undefeated heading to Eugene to take on the Ducks, but they've played a weak schedule and barely got past Cal in their last game. Oregon has too much for Arizona, but this will most likely be a very high scoring game. Arizona will need to rely on turnovers and a few big plays to stay in this one and maybe have a chance to pull the big upset at the end. I hope to stay up late enough to see some of the game, because it could be very entertaining. Then again, Oregon may put it away early and I'll get some much needed sleep.
WEEK 5 COLLEGE PICKS RECAP
It was a little bit better week, but I still whiffed on a number of games involving unranked teams. Maryland may be poised to compete for a Big Ten title in their first season in the league, and Missouri came back from a big upset to take down South Carolina on the road. And then there was the fourth quarter breakdown by Arkansas that resulted in an overtime loss to Texas A&M.
Last Week: 19 - 5
Overall: 87 - 30
Texas Tech (2 - 1) 30 @ Oklahoma St. (2 - 1) 41: Correct. I came close to picking the spread on this one. Oklahoma St. 45 - 35.
Wyoming (3 - 1) 13 @ (9) Michigan State (2 - 1) 30: Correct. I still like the Spartans to stay in the hunt for the playoffs. Michigan State 56 - 14.
Wyoming (3 - 1) 13 @ (9) Michigan State (2 - 1) 30: Correct. I still like the Spartans to stay in the hunt for the playoffs. Michigan State 56 - 14.
South Florida (2 - 2) 14 @ (19) Wisconsin (2 - 1) 34: Correct. No surprise here. The Badgers will be around all season. Wisconsin 27 - 10/
UTEP (2 - 1) 10 @ (25)
Kansas State (2 - 1) 24: Correct. The Wildcats have a real chance in the Big 12, but a visit to Oklahoma will be pivotal. Kansas State 58 - 28.
Western Michigan (2 - 1) 17 Virginia Tech (2 - 2) 24: Correct. The Hokies finally finished one. Va. Tech 35 - 17
(1) Florida State (3 - 0) 27
@ N.C. State (4 - 0) 23: Correct. This one was close for a while, but the 'Noles showed why they're still the top team in the nation. Florida St. 56 - 41.
Arkansas (3 - 1) 34
@ (6) Texas A&M (4 - 0) 31 (in Arlington, TX): No. Heartbreaker for the Hogs. They need to learn how to finish. Texas A&M 35 - 28 OT.
La. Tech (2 - 2) 13 @ (5) Auburn (3 - 0) 37: Correct. Nice warmup for the Tigers before taking on LSU. Auburn 45 - 17.
(16) Stanford (2 - 1) 26
@
Washington (4 - 0) 24: Correct. Big win for the Cardinal as they took a tough one on the road. Stanford 20 - 13.
Cincinnati 16 @ (22) Ohio State 27: Correct. I like to think that the Buckeyes' loss to my Hokies might be the only thing keeping them out of playoff consideration. Ohio State 50 - 28.
Missouri (3 - 1) 26 @ (13) South Carolina (3 - 1) 27: No. Surprise, surprise, surprise. I picked the spread, just not the right winner. Missouri 21 - 20.
UNC (2 - 1) 30 @ Clemson (1 - 2) 34: Correct. The Tar Heels have given up 120 points in the last two games. I'm not sure they can even spell d-e-e-f-, no, it's d-e-p-h-e, no wait, how about, d-e-f-e-n-c, no. Oh well, I'll have to do what UNC does and just forget it. Clemson 50 - 35.
Memphis (2 - 1) 20 @ (10) Ole Miss (3 - ) 28: Correct. The Rebels escaped a trap game before getting into the SEC schedule. Ole Miss 24 - 3.
New Mexico St. (2 - 2) 10 @ (17)
LSU (3 - 1): 27: Correct. Like I said in my pick. This was a good way for the Tigers to get over the Mississippi State loss. LSU 63 - 7.
(7) Baylor (3 - 0) 34 @ Iowa State (1 - 2) 31: Correct. This one wasn't as close as I thought it might be, but Baylor will face a little tougher competition going forward. Baylor 49 - 28.
(8) Notre Dame (3 - 0) 27
@ Syracuse (2 - 1) 21 (in East Rutherford,
NJ): Correct. With the Irish's schedule, they will be a good bet for the playoffs if they keep winning. Notre Dame 31 - 15.
Illinois (3 - 1) 17 @ (21) Nebraska (4 - 0) 27:
Correct. The 'Huskers won't stay in the upper teens for long if they stay on a roll. Nebraska 45 - 14.
Oregon State (3 - 0) 23 @ (18) USC (2 - 1) 27:
Correct. The Trojans rebounded nicely from the loss at Boston College. USC 35 - 10.
Colorado (2 - 2) 20 @ California (2 - 1) 24: Correct. Cal made a huge comeback and then won in double OT. I had written them off at halftime. California 59 - 56 2 OT.
Texas 24 (1 - 2) @ Kansas (2 - 1) 27:
No. Kansas failed to score and it cost Charlie Weis his job. Maybe the former NFL assistant just isn't cut out for the college game. Texas 23 - 0.
Tennessee (2 - 1) 16 @ (12) Georgia (2 - 1) 30: Correct. The Vols gave Georgia all they could handle, but just couldn't get ahead in the second half. The Bulldogs stayed alive in the SEC East. Georgia 35 - 32.
Vanderbilt (1 - 3) 17 @ Kentucky (2 - 1) 28: Correct. Don't look now, but Kentucky finally won an SEC game. Now it's Arkansas' turn. Kentucky 17 - 7.
Maryland (3 - 1) 27 @ Indiana (2 - 1) 30: No. How do you say fluke? That's what the Hoosiers' victory over Missouri looks like now. Maryland 37 - 15.
Duke (4 - 0) 31 @ Miami (2 - 2) 27: No. The 'Canes finally found some defense and grounded an explosive Duke offense. That ACC Coastal will be quite a battle, with no one really in a position to run away with it. Miami 22 - 10.
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