COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK FOUR PREDICTIONS

After a decent week two, I rebounded this past weekend, going 26  - 4 for almost 87%. I broke even against the spread, which I hope is a trend in the right direction. There are a lot of compelling games this week as conference play begins in earnest, especially in those conferences that play nine league games.

Last week:

Straight-up                             26 - 4     86.7%

ATS                                        15 - 15   50.0%

Overall:

Straight-up                             50 - 9     84.7%

ATS                                        27 - 32   45.7%

Thursday:

Houston (1 - 2) (0 - 0) 30 @ Tulane (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-5.0) 27: Houston has been through a difficult season-opening stretch. They were competitive against a terrific Oklahoma team and challenged a tough Washington State squad to the end in a seven-point loss.  Tulane was able to hold Auburn to 24 points, but could only manage six points in the loss. I like Houston to break through.

(10) Utah (3 - 0)  (0 - 0) (-4.0) 37 @ USC (2 - 1) (1 - 0) 38: A week ago, this was shaping up as an early-season battle for supremacy in the Pac-12 South. But then USC stumbled against BYU and exposed the weaknesses in their true freshman quarterback. Utah’s defense, one of the best in the country, may do more of the same unless the Trojans make some adjustments in practice this week. But if this ends up in a track meet, my money is on USC.

Air Force (2 - 0) (0 - 0) 28 @ (20) Boise State (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-8.5) 24: Boise State has a couple of close wins against FBS teams while Air Force got a big victory over Pac-12 Colorado. I seem to be on a Friday night upset jag, so why not go for another one?

 

Southern Mississippi (2 - 1) 14 @ (2) Alabama (3 - 0) (-38.5) 56: It looks like it will be another few weeks before Alabama gets a real test, traveling to Texas A&M on October 12. Southern Miss gave up 38 against Mississippi State and 42 to Troy. Alabama will probably put up a bunch. if they want to.

(4) LSU (3 - 0) (0 - 0)(-23.0) 42 @ Vanderbilt (0- 2) (0 - 1) 17: This is potentially a great LSU team, and potentially a not so great Vanderbilt one. I’m not looking for an upset here.

Tennessee (1 - 2) (0 - 0) 14 @ Florida (3 - 0) (1 - 0) (-14.0) 30: Florida eked out an improbable comeback win against Kentucky last week, but shouldn’t need the theatrics this time. Tennessee is a long way from getting competitive in the SEC and this trip to the Swamp won’t be pleasant. 

(11) Michigan (2 - 0) (0 - 0) 20 @ (13) Wisconsin (2 - 0) (0 - 0) (-3.5) 31:  This is one of the premier games of the weekend. Both of these teams had the week off, Michigan to digest their near disaster against Army and Wisconsin to bask in a 61 - 0 thrashing of Central Michigan. Wisconsin is a slight favorite.

(23) California (3 - 0) 23 @ Ole Miss (2 - 1) (-3.5) 20: Kansas State ventured into the state of Mississippi last week and came away with a victory over Mississippi State, a game I correctly predicted. Now a Pac-12 team travels to Oxford with hopes of a similar result. I believe they’ll pull it off. 

Boston College (2 - 1) (-8.0) 31 @ Rutgers (1 - 1) 21: Boston College was looking fairly impressive through two and a half games, then Kansas rang up 28 consecutive points and handed the Eagles their first loss. Rutgers isn’t great, but it might be tough for BC to recover on the road against a team that is coming off an open week after a 31 - 0 loss to Iowa.

Michigan State (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-9.0) 20 @ Northwestern (2 - 1)  (0 - 0) 10: Michigan State is coming off a disappointing loss to Arizona State, so I look for them to shut down Northwestern in a defensive battle.

 

Miami, OH (1 - 2) 9 @ (6) Ohio State (3 - 0) (-39.5) 51: I’m not even sure why I’m bothering to comment on this one. 

(8) Auburn (3 - 0) (0 - 0)21 @ (17) Texas A&M (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-4.0) 27: Before the season started I thought this would be the big test for Texas A&M, and I’m still convinced of that. Auburn has been inconsistent on offense which could be a problem as they head into Kyle Field. I look for the Aggies’ defense to hold Auburn down and their offense to put plenty of points on the board.

(15) UCF (3 - 0)(-12.5) 27 @ Pittsburgh (1 - 2) 20: Pittsburgh is always tough at home and is coming off a pretty good performance in a 17 - 10 loss at Penn State. UCF is on a mission to try to crash the college football playoffs and a loss to Pitt would spoil any chances they have. 

(22) Washington (2 - 1) (-6.0) 30 @ BYU (2 - 1) 21: BYU has two overtime wins, but I don’t think they’ll be able to pull off another one against a refocused Washington team. Even though Washington lost to Cal, that loss may look much better by the end of the season.

SMU (3 - 0) 14 @ (25) TCU (2 - 0) (9.0) 27: SMU is improved, but TCU’s defense is strong as usual. SMU will be moving up in class after three Group of Five victories. Even though I have TCU covering here, I wouldn’t  be surprised to see SMU give them a battle in this Dallas Metroplex rivalry.

(18) Oregon (2 - 1)(0 - 0) (-10.0) 28 @ Stanford (1 - 2) (0 - 1) 20: Stanford has been disappointing since an opening week victory over Northwestern. Oregon just has too much offense for the Cardinal.

Old Dominion (1 - 1) 14 @ (21) Virginia (3 - 0) (-30.5) 42: Old Dominion gave Virginia Tech a tough game earlier in the season, but right now Virginia is playing at a higher level. 

Charlotte (2 - 1) 6 @ (1) Clemson (3 - 0) (-41.5) 48: The bus ride home will seem a lot longer than a couple of hours for Charlotte after taking on Clemson in Death Valley.

Oklahoma State (3 - 0)(0 - 0)27@ (12) Texas (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-5.0) 31: There are a lot of people jumping on the Oklahoma State bandwagon, but I like Texas despite the loss to LSU. It’ll be close, but the Longhorns should prevail at home.

(7) Notre Dame (2 - 0) 24 @ (3) Georgia (3 - 0) (-13.5) 34: This just isn’t a good matchup for the Irish. They’re vulnerable against the run and the Bulldogs are very effective on the ground. Still, it’s great to see these two teams playing this brief home and home series. The SEC needs all the non-conference Power Five wins they can get.

Colorado (2 - 1) (0 - 0)14 @ (24) Arizona State (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-7.5) 27: Arizona head coach Herm Edwards has done a great job in resurrecting the Sun Devil program. Colorado is improved, but Arizona State’s defense is tough.

UCLA (0 -3) (0 - 0) 21 @ (19) Washington State (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-18.5) 41: I have no idea what’s happening at UCLA, and from the looks of things, neither does head coach Chip Kelly. They’re terrible against the pass and Washington State should light up the scoreboard today. 

Louisville (2 - 1)(0 - 0) 24@ Florida State (1 - 2) (0 - 1) (-6.5) 30: It’s hard to believe that it wasn’t that long ago this game was meaningful on the national level. Not so much anymore. Florida State showed some signs of life at Virginia last week, so I’m going to give the ‘Noles some love at home.

West Virginia (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-5.0) 27@ Kansas (2 - 1) (0 - 0) 30: Both of these teams surprised me last week, so this is a tough one for me. I like what Les Miles has already done for the Jayhawks and I believe they’ll be pretty pumped up at home. I’m smelling upset.

Kentucky (2 - 1) (0 - 1)  27 @ Mississippi State (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-7.0) 24: I’m still not sure why Mississippi State is getting so much love. I think Kentucky is really good and the home team wasn’t impressive against Kansas State last week. I’m going with another road dog, or in this case a road cat, as in Wildcat.

San Jose State (1 - 1) 17@ Arkansas (2 - 1) (-20.5) 41: Arkansas appears to have found an answer at quarterback, finally benching SMU transfer Ben Hicks in favor of Texas A&M transfer Nick Starkel. The Hog faithful have been waiting for over a season for head coach Chad Morris to show some offensive firepower and the 55 points against Colorado State is a step in the right direction. 

South Carolina (1 - 2) (0 - 1) 20 @ Missouri (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-9.5) 31: Missouri had an opening hiccup against Wyoming but has rebounded nicely. South Carolina had a tough game against Alabama last week and teams don’t generally fare well following a game against the Crimson Tide. 

Nebraska (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-7.0) 34 @ Illinois (2 - 1) (0 - 0) 24: Nebraska let one get away a couple of weeks at Colorado, but should be able to handle an Illinois team that is coming off a loss to Eastern Michigan, one of the bottom 30 teams in the FBS. The ‘Huskers should be able to put up some points on the Illini.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com .  Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.