COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK ONE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND

It's finally time for the true opening weekend of college football. There are three games matching ranked teams, with the biggest pitting number one ranked Alabama against third rated Florida State in what could be a college football playoff preview.

Last Week: 5 - 0 100%

Kent State 6 @ (5) Clemson 41: I’m generally a big fan of the teams in the upper echelon of the MAC, but Kent State isn’t in that class. We probably won’t get a very good read on how well Clemson will be as they look to defend their national championship, but at least we’ll see how well Kelly Bryant, their new quarterback, leads the offense.

Akron 13 @ (6) Penn State 31: See above. Actually, Akron could be somewhat improved after last season’s five win campaign, but they’re still predicted to finish near the bottom of the MAC East. Head coach Terry Bowden has former Florida State defensive coordinator Chuck Amato in the same role for the Zips, but it’s a lot to ask for them to upset national title contender Penn State in State College.

Maryland 21 @ (23) Texas 30: Expectations are high for Texas and new head coach Tom Herman. Former Longhorn coach Charlie Strong left the team with a lot of talent and despite only winning five games in 2016, they were competitive in all but two of their losses. On the other side, Maryland squandered a decent start and lost seven of their final nine games, including the Quick Lane Bowl to Boston College. I’m expecting Texas to come out of the gates with enthusiasm and discipline, so I like their chances against the Terps.

California 20 @ North Carolina 34: Cal gave up more than 40 points in nine games last year and finished the season with the second-worst scoring defense in the FBS. For the UNC offense, with only four returning starters, that should sound like good news as they break in an entirely set of skill players, including quarterback. With the early start in Chapel Hill, it might take the Bears a little while to get moving. By then, unless they show tremendous improvement on defense, it might be too late.

Bethune-Cookman VERY LITTLE @ (18) Miami A LOT: Miami’s non-conference schedule is a joke (except for Notre Dame) and needs to be upgraded in the near future if they want to be taken seriously again at the national level.

NC State 30 @ South Carolina 24: This is an interesting match-up between two middle of the pack ACC and SEC schools. N.C State lost a lot of close games last year or their 2016 might have looked a lot different. South Carolina had the same 6 – 6 regular season record, but that was deceiving as they chalked up victories over East Carolina, Massachusetts and FCS Western Carolina. Not impressive, but they return ten offensive starters off a team that was ranked an anemic 116^th in FBS scoring offense. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? I guess we’ll see.

UTEP 10 @ (7) Oklahoma 48: UTEP’s only game against a power five team last season was a 41 – 7 loss at Texas. I don’t expect much different of an outcome in this one.

(11) Michigan 27 vs. (17) Florida 24 (Arlington, TX): My feeling is that both of these teams are a little bit overrated. Michigan is expected to take a step back from the team that lost three games by five points. Florida went 9 – 4 last year, but they had three ugly losses and they face a much tougher schedule this time around. This will be a very good inter-conference game, but I like Michigan’s consistency on defense a little better.

Temple 24 @ Notre Dame 27: After an ugly four win season, the pressure is on Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly to turn things around and do it in a hurry. Temple may be one of the easiest games on the Irish schedule, but they are still two-time defending AAC East champions. An early loss could put Kelly on a very hot seat with a difficult schedule ahead of him.

Stony Brook 13 @ (19) South Florida 51: Another FCS team venturing into FBS territory. South Florida shrugged off a shaky start to score 42 straight at San Jose State in front of about 17 people. Stony Brook shouldn’t offer nearly as much opposition.

Western Michigan 24 @ (4) USC 30: Western Michigan went undefeated until losing in the Cotton Bowl to Wisconsin last season. Head coach PJ Fleck headed to Minnesota, but the team will still be very good. USC is picked by many to win the Pac-12 behind quarterback Sam Darnold. With nothing to lose, look for Western Michigan to give a spirited effort. The Trojans better be ready for a MAC Attack.

Appalachian State 27 @ (15) Georgia 28: Another host team that needs to be on upset alert is Georgia. Last season Appalachian State took Tennessee to overtime before succumbing to the Vols. The Mountaineers are no strangers to Power Five teams and are a dangerous group. Kirby Smart’s second Bulldog team is going to need to improve on offense or every game will be a potential struggle, including this one. If there was ever a trap game, this is one, as Georgia travels to Notre Dame next week.

Central Arkansas 14  @ (20) Kansas State 35: Kansas State plays one of the weakest non-conference schedule of any Power Five program. For a team that has been successful for as long as the Wildcats, it should be embarrassing that the signature game outside of the Big 12 is against Vanderbilt. Come on, guys. Really?

Ga. Southern 16 @ (12) Auburn 38: Georgia Southern can be hard to defend, as it runs a style of offense similar to Georgia Tech’s. Their new offensive coordinator is a former Yellow Jacket assistant, so expect to see more similarities. Auburn will need to defend well, which they did very well last year, to avoid a costly upset, especially if they get caught looking ahead to Clemson next week. 

(16) Louisville 41 @ Purdue 24 (Indianapolis, IN): Louisville has plenty of reasons to be motivated. They have the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, knocked off Florida State, lost in the closing minutes to Clemson and are getting very little respect to start the season. The primary reason is that the Cardinals dropped their last three games, two of them to teams they really should have defeated. Purdue’’s new coach is former Louisville quarterback and assistant coach Jeff Brohm, so there is some added incentive for him to push his former team yet with his spread offense. He just doesn’t have the talent yet to pull it off.

(3) Florida State 30 vs. (1) Alabama 28 (Arlington, TX): I know that Nick Saban’s record when he has time to prepare for an opponent is incredible, but this is totally a hunch pick. Florida State has a quarterback starting his second season, a ton of great recruits and a pretty good coach of their own. Seminole coach Jimbo Fisher coached under Saban at LSU and is one of the names mentioned to possibly succeed Saban if and when he decides to leave Alabama. There is familiarity and at times it can be the difference in a close game.

BYU 17 vs. (13) LSU 27 (New Orleans, LA): BYU’s offense wasn’t very productive last week while LSU should have a very good defense. This game was moved to New Orleans from Houston, which just puts it a little closer to LSU and a little farther away from BYU. The Tigers have an advantage with the venue, but BYU already has some game experience, so this one might be close for a half or three quarters. Then I expect LSU to take control.

Montana State 13 @ (24) Washington State 37: Last season, Washington State was surprised by FCS Eastern Washington in their opener, but EWU is one of the top teams in their classification. I don’t expect the same threat from Montana State. The Cougars were rolling last year, but dropped their last three games. They’ll be trying to recapture some momentum before seeking revenge against Boise State next week.

Sunday, September 3

(22) West Virginia 20 vs. Va. Tech 31 (Landover, MD) This is a big game for two teams trying to gain national relevance. West Virginia, if could figure out a way to beat at least one team from the state of Oklahoma might have a chance of contending for a Big 12 crown, especially since the top two teams will play in a conference championship game. Virginia Tech came within a touchdown of Clemson in the ACC Championship game last season, get another shot at the Tigers on September 30, but this time in the friendly confines of Lane Stadium. The first freshman to start at quarterback since Michael Vick in 1999, Josh Jackson, is an unknown that is keeping experts from predicting a higher finish in the ACC Coastal. I like the Va. Tech defense to take care of business and set up Jackson for success.

Texas A&M 30 @ UCLA 34: Coached Jim Mora fir UCLA and Kevin Sumlin at Texas A&M are both firmly on the hot seat. Depending on how this game transpires, only one of them will have a cooler spot to sit by Sunday morning. The Bruins get All-American and Heisman candidate Josh Rosen back from injury at quarterback, which should help Mora’s chances. After promising starts the last several seasons, including a couple with Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M has failed to finish well. I like UCLA to take this one at home.

Monday, September 4

(25) Tennessee 27 vs Ga. Tech 31 (Atlanta, GA): Georgia Tech had a down year in 2016, but they were still able to upset Virginia Tech, eventual ACC Coastal winners. The running attack for the Yellow Jackets is difficult to defend, especially when a team doesn’t face it very often. Tennessee began last season well, but fell off in midseason and then inexplicably lost to Vanderbilt in the regular season finale. A bowl win over Nebraska salvaged the year, but head coach Butch Jones’ seat is indeed warm. Although this is technically a neutral site game, it’s taking place just a couple of exits down the connector from the Georgia Tech campus. I’ll take the Yellow Jackets.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK ONE PREDICTIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

After a handful of week 0 games, the college football season kicks off in earnest this week with games on Thursday and Friday nights. There are some compelling match-ups that could produce an upset or two, but the critical games will take place starting Saturday.

Last Week: 5 - 0  100%

Thursday, August 31

Tulsa 38 @ (10) Oklahoma State 47: Both of these teams from the state of Oklahoma finished last season with identical 10 – 3 marks, including lopsided bowl victories. Of course, Oklahoma State maintains that they really won eleven games because their loss to Central Michigan was mismanaged by the officials. Ironically, Central Michigan was Tulsa’s bowl opponent and the officials had nothing to do with the way the Golden Hurricane dismantled them 55 – 10.  Many experts are picking the Cowboys to win the Big 12 and they’ll be tested by a motivated Tulsa team that failed to score at least forty points only three times last season. I’ll take Oklahoma State, but this one could be a barn-burner.

(2) Ohio State 27 @ Indiana 17: Indiana returns nine starters off a defense that competed pretty well at time last year. This is an early conference road game for the Buckeyes and they’ll need to be ready to play if they want to avoid an upset. The Ohio State offense was inconsistent a year ago and laid an egg in the national semifinal against Clemson. The Indiana coaching staff will have plenty of film to watch of teams that throttled the Buckeyes. However, eight offensive and seven defensive starters return for coach Urban Meyer, so anything less than a return to the playoffs would be a disappointment.

Florida A&M 17 vs. Arkansas 31 (Little Rock, AR): In what could be Arkansas’ last game in Little Rock, the Hogs open an important season for coach Bret Bielema against an FCS opponent that already has a game under its belt. These games are dangerous, but the Hogs were given a chance to play on national television to start the season and jumped at it. With nothing to gain and a lot to lose, they better come out sharp or it could be embarrassing. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slow start from Arkansas, but they should win this handily.

New Mexico State 27 @ Arizona State 34:  Arizona State head coach Todd Graham is firmly on the hot seat after the Sun Devils lost their last six games in 2016, and in only one of them were they within three touchdowns. They were next to last in the FBS in total defense and dead last defending the pass. New Mexico State won only three games last season, but they should be better in 2017. This is a dangerous game for Arizona State, especially with the Aggies having nothing to lose. If Graham doesn’t improve the defense, it could be a tough start for the season for the Sum Devils.

Friday, September 1

(8) Washington 37 @ Rutgers 17: Washington travels cross country to open the season against a Rutgers team that lost its last nine games in 2016 and possessed the worst offense in the FBS. However, the Scarlet Knights have a number of grad transfers that should be able to add some life to an anemic attack. The Huskies will be trying to build on last season’s Pac-12 title and playoff appearance, but they have some holes to fill on defense as four starters went in the NFL draft. These two teams met in week one last season with Washington coming out on top by a score of 48 – 13. It might be a little closer this time around, but I don’t think Rutgers has closed the talent gap enough to make it close.

Colorado State 31 vs. Colorado 28 (Denver, CO): Unfortunately for Colorado, their in-state rivals already have a game under their belt against another Pac-12 foe, Oregon State. Head coach Mike Bobo’s Rams looked impressive in their new stadium as they put 58 points on the board against the Beavers. Colorado lost nine defensive starters and also have a new quarterback, so duplicating last season’s Pac-12 South crown will be difficult. This game was a one-sided affair last year, with Colorado winning 44 – 7. I look for a very different result this time around.

Utah State 10 @ (9) Wisconsin 34: Wisconsin was very close to an undefeated season in 2016 and won the Big Ten West. The scary thing is they bring back nine offensive and six defensive starters from a team that was fourth in scoring defense among FBS teams.  Utah’s defensive strength is against the pass, but the Badgers prefer to run the ball, so the Aggies will be at a big disadvantage. Looking ahead, Wisconsin has a favorable schedule and the talent to run the table, since they don’t have to play Ohio State and Penn State. They also host Michigan, so expect this team to be in the national mix come Thanksgiving.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK ZERO PREDICTIONS

Most fans are looking forward to the Labor Day Weekend as the college football season begins in earnest. But there are two ranked teams in action this week, as a limited slate kicks of the season. There are some serious travel miles getting logged, as Stanford and Rice go Down Under, Hawaii heads to the east coast and South Florida flies west. It’s not as exciting as what we’ll see next week, but it’s college football at last.

Saturday, August 26

Oregon State 27 @ Colorado State 31: Colorado State will open the season in a new on-campus stadium. This game was moved from Sept. 23 and gives the Rams a challenging opening game. They return thirteen starters from a team that lost to Idaho in the Potato Bowl. Their opponent, Oregon State, won only four games last season, but two of them were the final ones they played, including a big win over rival Oregon. The Beavers’ defense isn’t bad, but I don’t think it will be enough to overcome Colorado State. I guess I’m starting the season with a mild upset.

Portland State 14 @ BYU 37: Portland State is a second division FCS team that shouldn’t give the Cougars much trouble. BYU needs an easy one to start the season, because the front end of their schedule is brutal, with games against LSU, Utah and Wisconsin.

Hawaii 34 @ UMass 31: Talk about a long road trip for Hawaii. Fortunately for the Rainbows they’ll be playing at 5:00 pm EDT and their opponent is considered one of the worst teams in the FBS. These teams met in the final regular season game last year, with the Minutemen coming within a touchdown of pulling an upset and keeping Hawaii out of bowl contention. Although this could be a very close game, I’ll take Hawaii to outscore the home team.

(19) South Florida 30 @ San Jose State 14: South Florida, who went 11 – 2 including a bowl win over South Carolina, welcome Charlie Strong as their new head coach to replace Willie Taggert, now at Oregon. Expectations are high for South Florida as they head west to play a Spartans squad that returns thirteen starters off a 4 – 8 team. If the jet lag isn’t an issue, the Bulls should prevail.

(14) Stanford 27 vs. Rice 13 (Sydney, Australia): The Endowment Bowl features a Stanford team that will need to find a replacement for Christian McCaffery’s insane offensive production. Rice only won three games last year and isn’t expected to challenge the leaders in Conference USA. This will be a good opener for Stanford to find some contributors on offense before they travel to USC in week two to open Pac-12 play.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

LOOKING AHEAD TO COLLEGE FOOTBALL: BIG GAMES IN WEEK FOUR

The conference schedules, at least for the ones that play nine league games, kick off in earnest in week 4. The Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac 12 hit the ground running with some match-ups that will definitely effect the final standings and determine which teams advance to the championship games.

Penn State @ Iowa: Penn State is not only a favorite to win their division, but after the finish last year, they are a legitimate national championship caliber team. But their path is tough, and assuming they take care of Pittsburgh at home, this is a key game. Iowa is good defensively and will force the Nittany Lions to be patient. I don't think many Big Ten teams would like to travel to Iowa City in their conference opener, but if Penn State performs well, it will position them nicely going forward.

Oklahoma @ Baylor: It will be interesting to see how Baylor rebounds from a disappointing finish to their season and what a new coach will bring to the table. If the Sooners are going to contend for a national championship, they'll need to get out of Waco with a win, especially if they sustain a loss in their visit to Ohio State. I like Oklahoma to run the table until they face Oklahoma State, but the Big 12 is a mystery, especially with the wide open style of play throughout the conference.

TCU @ Oklahoma State: If TCU gets past Arkansas and Oklahoma State defeats Pittsburgh, both on the road, this game will take on some national significance. The Cowboys are already picked by many to win the Big 12, but to do so, they'll have to win in Fort Worth.. If one of these teams emerges from this game undefeated, they'll definitely be in playoff consideration, even at an early stage in the season.

Notre Dame @ Michigan State: Both of these teams are coming off sub-par seasons. Some would say that Irish coach Brian Kelly is on the hot seat. I disagree, but there is no doubting the importance of this game. The only thing for certain is that there will be a lot of green in the stands.

Oregon @ Arizona State: I'm fascinated by how Oregon is going to come back from a down season that saw their coach get fired. The Pac-12 juggernaut that found its way to a national championship game can't be that far away, can it? Can Willie Taggert, an east coast guy, bring back glory to Phil Knight's pride and joy? We'll have to wait and see, but an early season loss to the Sun Devils would cast a pall in Eugene.

Washington @ Colorado: What a way to start the Pac-12 slate but with a rematch of last season's conference championship game where Washington totally outclassed the Buffaloes in a 41 - 10 romp. The bad news for Colorado is that they return just two starters from a defensive unit that was the key to their division title a year ago. Washington is hoping to build on the momentum of a playoff run from last season.

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (Arlington, Texas): Arkansas has yet to defeat A&M since the Aggies became members of the SEC. This is a big game for a number of reasons, not the least of which is recruiting. The Razorbacks can benefit from an increased presence in the Lone Star state and this will be their second consecutive game against a team from the state of Texas. For both of these teams, given the rigorous schedule in the SEC West, a win in this game is almost a necessity for a successful season.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.