There's plenty of action tonight with three good games on the slate. In the American, ECU will be trying to get back on the winning track and stay in contention, along with Cincinnati, in the race for the conference championship. Cal visits USC in the L.A. Coliseum, where there will probably be plenty of work for the scoreboard operator as the Trojans try to stay alive in the Pac-12 South. And in the NFL, a big AFC East matchup will take place in Miami, one of the few warm places in the country today.
College:
East Carolina (6 - 2) 38 @ Cincinnati (5 - 3) 27: ECU's loss to Temple in their last game took them out of the running for a major bowl, but they still have a lot to play for. There are currently four teams in the American Conference with one loss and a lot of football left to be played. The conference doesn't have a championship game and there is not a round robin schedule, so there are some interesting possibilities for ties at the top of the standings. After getting thrashed in three straight games, Cincinnati has rebounded by winning their last three contests. ECU basically handed the game to Temple, committing numerous turnovers and losing the game despite holding the Owls to under 200 yards of offense. I like the Pirates speed on the outside to scorch the Bearcats and get ECU back on the winning track.
California (5 - 4) 31 @ USC (6 - 3) 40: Cal can really score and USC has one of the better defenses in the Pac-12. Something will have to give tonight and it will most likely be the Golden Bears' defense. However, if it's a shootout, anything could happen. I still like USC's balance and overall their defense should be better enough than Cal's to prevail. In addition, the Trojans are still in the hunt for the Pac-12 South crown, with a win setting up a big showdown with UCLA next week.
NFL:
Buffalo (5 - 4) 21 @ Miami (5 - 4) 27: The Bills took down the Dolphins in week 2, but this is week 11 and the game is in Miami, where the Fins dismantled the Chargers before losing a close one at Detroit last week. Buffalo has lived by their defense all season, allowing more than 23 points just one time in a 37 - 22 loss to New England, hardly anything to be embarrassed about. But it's a short week, a long trip and Miami's defense is as solid as the Bills'. I'll take the home team in this one, but it has the potential to be close deep into the fourth quarter.
Thursday, November 13, 2014
WEEK TEN NFL PICKS RECAP
There was really only one big surprise last week, with the Jets somehow finding a way to get a win against the red-hot Steelers. Other than that, the power teams did what they were supposed to, win going away as the second half of the season moved into full swing.
Last Week: 10 - 3
Overall: 98 - 49 - 1
Thursday:
Cleveland (5 - 3) 24 @ Cincinnati (5 - 2 - 1) 27: No. The Bengals are just too inconsistent to envision them getting to or making a run in the playoffs. The Browns are just hanging around in that very competitive division. Cleveland 24 - 3.
Sunday:
Kansas City (5 - 3) 24 @ Buffalo (5 - 3) 20: Correct. I like the Chiefs, especially since the Chargers appear to be hitting the skids. Kansas City 17 - 13.
Miami (5 - 3) 24 @ Detroit (6 - 2) 27: Correct. The Lions have a couple of tough games coming up, but it's the season-ending game at Green Bay that could be for the division. Detroit 20 - 16.
Dallas (6 - 3) 27 vs. Jacksonville (1 - 8) 17 in London: Correct. It appears the Cowboys are back in gear, now that Romo is behind center again. We'll have to see how long that lasts. Dallas 31 - 17.
San Francisco (4 - 4) 24 @ New Orleans (4 - 4) 30: No. Just when it looked like an NFC South team might get over .500, the Saints gave the Niners an early lead and couldn't get a big play to pull out the win. San Francisco 27 - 24 OT.
Tennessee (2 - 6) 24 Baltimore (5 - 4) 27: Correct. The Ravens continue to play good defense as they head into their bye week. Baltimore 21 - 7.
Pittsburgh (6 - 3) 30 @ New York Jets (1 - 8) 20: No. I have no idea where this one came from. The Steelers totally laid an egg and lost a chance to gain a small advantage in the tight AFC North. New York Jets 20 - 13.
Atlanta (2 - 6) 27 @ Tampa (1 - 7) 26: Correct. I continue to be surprised at how badly the Bucs are playing. They just have too much talent to be 1 - 8. Atlanta 27 - 17.
Denver (6 - 2) 27 @ Oakland (0 - 8) 17: Correct. No surprise here. Peyton just keeps putting pints on the board. Denver 41 - 17.
St. Louis (3 - 5) 16 @ Arizona (7 - 1) 24: Correct. Even without an injured Carson Palmer, the Cards look like a playoff team. With their starting QB, they looked like a Super Bowl team. Arizona 31 - 14.
New York Giants (3 - 5) 24@ Seattle (5 - 3) 30: Correct. Speaking of Super Bowl teams, I wouldn't count the Seahawks out, especially if that defense get its act together. Seattle 38 - 17.
Chicago (3 - 5) 23 @ Green Bay (5 - 3) 31: Correct. What can anyone say about the embarrassing performance by the Bears? Even Packer QB Aaron Rodgers could tell Chicago quit on their coaching staff. Green Bay 55 - 14.
Monday:
Carolina (3 - 5 - 1) 21 @ Philadelphia (6 - 2) 31: Correct. Could Mark Sanchez have found new life in an Eagles uniform? I need to see him against a better team than the Panthers, and I won't have to wait long as he leads his team into Lambeau to take on the Packers. Philadelphia 45 - 21.
Last Week: 10 - 3
Overall: 98 - 49 - 1
Thursday:
Cleveland (5 - 3) 24 @ Cincinnati (5 - 2 - 1) 27: No. The Bengals are just too inconsistent to envision them getting to or making a run in the playoffs. The Browns are just hanging around in that very competitive division. Cleveland 24 - 3.
Sunday:
Kansas City (5 - 3) 24 @ Buffalo (5 - 3) 20: Correct. I like the Chiefs, especially since the Chargers appear to be hitting the skids. Kansas City 17 - 13.
Miami (5 - 3) 24 @ Detroit (6 - 2) 27: Correct. The Lions have a couple of tough games coming up, but it's the season-ending game at Green Bay that could be for the division. Detroit 20 - 16.
Dallas (6 - 3) 27 vs. Jacksonville (1 - 8) 17 in London: Correct. It appears the Cowboys are back in gear, now that Romo is behind center again. We'll have to see how long that lasts. Dallas 31 - 17.
San Francisco (4 - 4) 24 @ New Orleans (4 - 4) 30: No. Just when it looked like an NFC South team might get over .500, the Saints gave the Niners an early lead and couldn't get a big play to pull out the win. San Francisco 27 - 24 OT.
Tennessee (2 - 6) 24 Baltimore (5 - 4) 27: Correct. The Ravens continue to play good defense as they head into their bye week. Baltimore 21 - 7.
Pittsburgh (6 - 3) 30 @ New York Jets (1 - 8) 20: No. I have no idea where this one came from. The Steelers totally laid an egg and lost a chance to gain a small advantage in the tight AFC North. New York Jets 20 - 13.
Atlanta (2 - 6) 27 @ Tampa (1 - 7) 26: Correct. I continue to be surprised at how badly the Bucs are playing. They just have too much talent to be 1 - 8. Atlanta 27 - 17.
Denver (6 - 2) 27 @ Oakland (0 - 8) 17: Correct. No surprise here. Peyton just keeps putting pints on the board. Denver 41 - 17.
St. Louis (3 - 5) 16 @ Arizona (7 - 1) 24: Correct. Even without an injured Carson Palmer, the Cards look like a playoff team. With their starting QB, they looked like a Super Bowl team. Arizona 31 - 14.
New York Giants (3 - 5) 24@ Seattle (5 - 3) 30: Correct. Speaking of Super Bowl teams, I wouldn't count the Seahawks out, especially if that defense get its act together. Seattle 38 - 17.
Chicago (3 - 5) 23 @ Green Bay (5 - 3) 31: Correct. What can anyone say about the embarrassing performance by the Bears? Even Packer QB Aaron Rodgers could tell Chicago quit on their coaching staff. Green Bay 55 - 14.
Monday:
Carolina (3 - 5 - 1) 21 @ Philadelphia (6 - 2) 31: Correct. Could Mark Sanchez have found new life in an Eagles uniform? I need to see him against a better team than the Panthers, and I won't have to wait long as he leads his team into Lambeau to take on the Packers. Philadelphia 45 - 21.
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 11 PICKS RECAP AND PLAYOFF PREDICTION
The list of playoff contenders is either shrinking or growing, depending on your perspective. Some would say Ohio State's victory over Michigan State eliminated the Big Ten from consideration for a spot. Others would say it further solidified the Buckeyes as a potential candidate, provided they can get past a surprising Minnesota team this weekend. Auburn's fumbling away of their game with Texas A&M eliminated another SEC West team from the mix, but the Tigers can still play a significant role in the conference with games at Georgia and against Alabama in the Iron Bowl to end the regular season. I believe it's totally within reason that the SEC is left out of the playoff, particularly if winning the conference is part of the criteria to get in. The SEC West could find itself with no one-loss teams at the end of the season. That would certainly cause some uproar.
Some other teams are starting to make some noise, particularly TCU, Baylor and Oregon. Florida State continues to remain undefeated, despite what many would call the latest in a number of lackluster efforts. It's tough to see the committee leaving them out if they win out, especially since it would mean victories over Miami, Florida and either Duke or Ga.Tech in the ACC championship game. I don't carry any weight with the committee, so I won't try to rank the teams at this point in the season. However, I have my own prediction as to who will be in the playoffs when the announcement is made on Dec. 7. Sorry Big Ten, but you need to get more competition within the conference or better wins outside of it.
Now let's see how things went last week.
Last Week: 17 - 4
Overall: 178 - 71
Thursday (from a previous post):
(21) Clemson (6 - 2) 23 @ Wake Forest (2 - 6) 9: Correct (spread) The Tigers are most likely eliminated from the ACC Atlantic race, barring a monumental collapse by Florida State. But they'll have a say in who represents the Coastal when they take on a hot Ga. Tech team this week. Clemson 34 - 20.
Saturday:
UT-Martin (5 - 5) 13 @ (1) Mississippi State (8 - 0) 38: Correct. No comment. Miss. St. 45 - 16.
Virginia (4 - 5) 20 @ (1) Florida State (8 - 0) 27: Correct. Once again, the 'Noles struggled at times, but a two touchdown victory isn't all that bad. Next up is Miami. Florida St. 34 - 20.
Texas A&M (6 - 3) 28 @ (3) Auburn (7 - 1) 37: No. I predicted it would take a heroic defensive effort for the Aggies to win. Instead it just took some lucky bounces. Texas A&M 41 - 38.
(4) Oregon (8 - 1) 30 @ (17) Utah (6 - 2) 24: Correct. The Ducks went into a hostile environment against a good team and won going away. Oregon has already clinched the Pac-12 North and will have to really stumble to keep from making it to the conference championship game with only one loss. It's a wide open race to see who they'll face. Oregon 51 - 27.
(5) Alabama (7 - 1) @ 24 (16) LSU (6 - 2) 23: Correct. All I can say is it was great to watch a terific football game. The Tide came back from the dead, a tribute to the coaches and the players for not giving up after almost fumbling the game away in the final couple of minutes. Alabama 20 - 13 OT.
(7) Kansas State (7 - 1) 28 @ (6) TCU (7 - 1) 30: Correct. Even though this win was at home, I believe this really established the Horned Frogs as the leader in the Big-12, despite their 61 - 58 loss to Baylor. Their win over now 7 - 2 Minnesota looms large, a non-conference quality win that Baylor can't claim. TCU 41 - 20.
(14) Ohio State (7 - 1) 24 @ (8) Michigan State (7 - 1) 27: No. Despite cries from experts to the contrary, the Buckeyes' home loss to now 4 - 5 Virginia Tech will probably weigh big in the minds of the playoff committee members. Wins over Navy, Kent State and Cincinnati will fail to impress. Ohio State 49 - 37.
(10) Notre Dame (7 - 1) 27 @ (9) Arizona State (7 - 1) 31: Correct. The Sun Devils could be on a collision course with Oregon, provided they get past Oregon State, Washington State and archrival Arizona. I'm not so sure about that last one. Arizona State 55 - 31.
Presbyterian (5 - 4) 6 @ (11) Ole Miss (7 - 2) 38: Correct. Why bother? Ole Miss 48 - 0.
(12) Baylor (7 - 1) 34 @ (15) Oklahoma (6 - 2) 38: No. Despite what I said about TCU, Baylor is making their own case for the playoffs. But without a key non-conference win, TCU should still get the nod. Beside, the Bears still need to get past Kansas State in the season finale. Baylor 48 - 14.
(18) UCLA (7 - 2) 27 @ Washington (6 - 3) 20: Correct. UCLA is making a late season push and hold the tie-breaker over Arizona State by virtue of their 62 - 27 win over the Sun Devils. UCLA 44 - 30.
Colorado (2 - 7) 23 @ (19) Arizona (6 - 2) 34: Correct. The Wildcats need to win out and hope they don't end up in a three way tie with UCLA and Arizona State. In that scenario, the Bruins would win the division by virtue of their wins over the other two teams. Arizona 38 - 20.
(20) Georgia (6 - 2) 27 @ Kentucky (5 - 4) 21: Correct. The Bulldogs still have to be wondering what went wrong against Florida, or we would be discussing their chances of getting into the playoff with an SEC title. Georgia 63 - 31.
(22) Duke (7 - 1) 30 @ Syracuse (3 - 6) 17: Correct. It will be interesting to see how far the Blue Devils rise in the latest committee rankings. Unfortunately, they won't have another chance to make a big impression with three sub-.500 teams left before a potential date with Florida State in the ACC championship game. Duke 27 - 10.
(23) West Virginia (6 - 3) 37 @ Texas (4 - 5) 20: No. Don't look now, but Charlie Strong may have Texas headed in the right direction a little earlier than would have been thought a few weeks ago. West Virginia probably had a bit of a TCU loss hangover. Texas 33 - 16.
(24) Ga. Tech (7 - 2) 31 @ NC State (5 - 4) 23: Correct. The Yellow Jackets will get a couple of chances to end the season on a very high note, even if they don't win the ACC Coastal. Clemson and Georgia loom large. Georgia Tech 56 - 23.
(25) Wisconsin (6 - 2) 30 @ Purdue (3 - 6) 16: Correct. Not much of a surprise as the Badgers stay in the hunt in the Big Ten West, setting up a big game with Nebraska on Saturday. Wisconsin 34 - 16.
Louisville (6 - 3) 30 @ Boston College (6 - 3) 24: Correct. Louisville, after an opening win against Miami, had higher aspirations than a third place finish in the ACC Atlantic. But Bobby Petrino has the Cardinal poised for future success. We'll see for sure when they face Notre Dame on Nov. 22 after a week off. Louisville 38 - 19.
Iowa (6 - 2) 23 @ Minnesota (6 - 2) 31: Correct. The Golden Gophers' 7 - 2 record is impressive, but now they get Ohio State, Nebraska and Wisconsin to close out the regular season. I don't like their chances of finishing 10 -2. Minnesota 51 - 14.
Florida (4 - 3) 20 @ Vanderbilt (3 - 6) 13: Correct. Florida still has a mathematical chance at finishing in a tie for the SEC East, which would be quite an accomplishment given the way they started the season. A win over Florida State, a 7 - 3 record and a possible appearance in the SEC championship game would probably be enough for Florida AD Jeremy Foley to bring back head coach Will Muschamp. Florida 34 - 10.
Some other teams are starting to make some noise, particularly TCU, Baylor and Oregon. Florida State continues to remain undefeated, despite what many would call the latest in a number of lackluster efforts. It's tough to see the committee leaving them out if they win out, especially since it would mean victories over Miami, Florida and either Duke or Ga.Tech in the ACC championship game. I don't carry any weight with the committee, so I won't try to rank the teams at this point in the season. However, I have my own prediction as to who will be in the playoffs when the announcement is made on Dec. 7. Sorry Big Ten, but you need to get more competition within the conference or better wins outside of it.
- Oregon
- Florida State
- Alabama
- TCU
Now let's see how things went last week.
Last Week: 17 - 4
Overall: 178 - 71
Thursday (from a previous post):
(21) Clemson (6 - 2) 23 @ Wake Forest (2 - 6) 9: Correct (spread) The Tigers are most likely eliminated from the ACC Atlantic race, barring a monumental collapse by Florida State. But they'll have a say in who represents the Coastal when they take on a hot Ga. Tech team this week. Clemson 34 - 20.
Saturday:
UT-Martin (5 - 5) 13 @ (1) Mississippi State (8 - 0) 38: Correct. No comment. Miss. St. 45 - 16.
Virginia (4 - 5) 20 @ (1) Florida State (8 - 0) 27: Correct. Once again, the 'Noles struggled at times, but a two touchdown victory isn't all that bad. Next up is Miami. Florida St. 34 - 20.
Texas A&M (6 - 3) 28 @ (3) Auburn (7 - 1) 37: No. I predicted it would take a heroic defensive effort for the Aggies to win. Instead it just took some lucky bounces. Texas A&M 41 - 38.
(4) Oregon (8 - 1) 30 @ (17) Utah (6 - 2) 24: Correct. The Ducks went into a hostile environment against a good team and won going away. Oregon has already clinched the Pac-12 North and will have to really stumble to keep from making it to the conference championship game with only one loss. It's a wide open race to see who they'll face. Oregon 51 - 27.
(5) Alabama (7 - 1) @ 24 (16) LSU (6 - 2) 23: Correct. All I can say is it was great to watch a terific football game. The Tide came back from the dead, a tribute to the coaches and the players for not giving up after almost fumbling the game away in the final couple of minutes. Alabama 20 - 13 OT.
(7) Kansas State (7 - 1) 28 @ (6) TCU (7 - 1) 30: Correct. Even though this win was at home, I believe this really established the Horned Frogs as the leader in the Big-12, despite their 61 - 58 loss to Baylor. Their win over now 7 - 2 Minnesota looms large, a non-conference quality win that Baylor can't claim. TCU 41 - 20.
(14) Ohio State (7 - 1) 24 @ (8) Michigan State (7 - 1) 27: No. Despite cries from experts to the contrary, the Buckeyes' home loss to now 4 - 5 Virginia Tech will probably weigh big in the minds of the playoff committee members. Wins over Navy, Kent State and Cincinnati will fail to impress. Ohio State 49 - 37.
(10) Notre Dame (7 - 1) 27 @ (9) Arizona State (7 - 1) 31: Correct. The Sun Devils could be on a collision course with Oregon, provided they get past Oregon State, Washington State and archrival Arizona. I'm not so sure about that last one. Arizona State 55 - 31.
Presbyterian (5 - 4) 6 @ (11) Ole Miss (7 - 2) 38: Correct. Why bother? Ole Miss 48 - 0.
(12) Baylor (7 - 1) 34 @ (15) Oklahoma (6 - 2) 38: No. Despite what I said about TCU, Baylor is making their own case for the playoffs. But without a key non-conference win, TCU should still get the nod. Beside, the Bears still need to get past Kansas State in the season finale. Baylor 48 - 14.
(18) UCLA (7 - 2) 27 @ Washington (6 - 3) 20: Correct. UCLA is making a late season push and hold the tie-breaker over Arizona State by virtue of their 62 - 27 win over the Sun Devils. UCLA 44 - 30.
Colorado (2 - 7) 23 @ (19) Arizona (6 - 2) 34: Correct. The Wildcats need to win out and hope they don't end up in a three way tie with UCLA and Arizona State. In that scenario, the Bruins would win the division by virtue of their wins over the other two teams. Arizona 38 - 20.
(20) Georgia (6 - 2) 27 @ Kentucky (5 - 4) 21: Correct. The Bulldogs still have to be wondering what went wrong against Florida, or we would be discussing their chances of getting into the playoff with an SEC title. Georgia 63 - 31.
(22) Duke (7 - 1) 30 @ Syracuse (3 - 6) 17: Correct. It will be interesting to see how far the Blue Devils rise in the latest committee rankings. Unfortunately, they won't have another chance to make a big impression with three sub-.500 teams left before a potential date with Florida State in the ACC championship game. Duke 27 - 10.
(23) West Virginia (6 - 3) 37 @ Texas (4 - 5) 20: No. Don't look now, but Charlie Strong may have Texas headed in the right direction a little earlier than would have been thought a few weeks ago. West Virginia probably had a bit of a TCU loss hangover. Texas 33 - 16.
(24) Ga. Tech (7 - 2) 31 @ NC State (5 - 4) 23: Correct. The Yellow Jackets will get a couple of chances to end the season on a very high note, even if they don't win the ACC Coastal. Clemson and Georgia loom large. Georgia Tech 56 - 23.
(25) Wisconsin (6 - 2) 30 @ Purdue (3 - 6) 16: Correct. Not much of a surprise as the Badgers stay in the hunt in the Big Ten West, setting up a big game with Nebraska on Saturday. Wisconsin 34 - 16.
Louisville (6 - 3) 30 @ Boston College (6 - 3) 24: Correct. Louisville, after an opening win against Miami, had higher aspirations than a third place finish in the ACC Atlantic. But Bobby Petrino has the Cardinal poised for future success. We'll see for sure when they face Notre Dame on Nov. 22 after a week off. Louisville 38 - 19.
Iowa (6 - 2) 23 @ Minnesota (6 - 2) 31: Correct. The Golden Gophers' 7 - 2 record is impressive, but now they get Ohio State, Nebraska and Wisconsin to close out the regular season. I don't like their chances of finishing 10 -2. Minnesota 51 - 14.
Florida (4 - 3) 20 @ Vanderbilt (3 - 6) 13: Correct. Florida still has a mathematical chance at finishing in a tie for the SEC East, which would be quite an accomplishment given the way they started the season. A win over Florida State, a 7 - 3 record and a possible appearance in the SEC championship game would probably be enough for Florida AD Jeremy Foley to bring back head coach Will Muschamp. Florida 34 - 10.
Sunday, November 9, 2014
WEEK TEN NFL PICKS
Most teams are beginning the second half of the season this week, with the cream of the league beginning to rise to the top. New England has a bye following their big win over Peyton Manning and the Broncos, but they've clearly positioned themselves as a top contender in the AFC. The AFC North is a logjam and could go down to the final weekend, while the NFC North lacks a team with a winning record.
Thursday:
Cleveland (5 - 3) 24 @ Cincinnati (5 - 2 - 1) 27: (From an earlier post): All of a sudden, the AFC North is a real dogfight. The four teams in the division are separated by just a game and a half as we get to the second half of the season. A Bengals' win would give them a sweep of the rest of the division in their first meetings, and put them a leg up in the tiebreaker. Both of these clubs have won their last two, looking to maintain some momentum. Statistically, they're similar, but the Bengals' two losses were blowouts to New England and Indianapolis, both on the road. Cincinnati is a different team at home and I expect them to keep that trend going tonight.
Kansas City (5 - 3) 24 @ Buffalo (5 - 3) 20: This is a good test for both teams as they begin the second half of the season. The Bills are a surprise, the Chiefs aren't. I'll go with the road team here.
Miami (5 - 3) 24 @ Detroit (6 - 2) 27: The Dolphins have suddenly emerged as a playoff contender in the AFC. Detroit is supposed to have Calvin Johnson back in the lineup, not a good sign for Miami.
Dallas (6 - 3) 27 vs. Jacksonville (1 - 8) 17 in London: Tony Romo is listed as probable, but it shouldn't make a difference in who wins, just in the final margin of victory.
San Francisco (4 - 4) 24 @ New Orleans (4 - 4) 30: A tough pick, but the homestanding Saints have taken the lead in the beleaguered NFC South. The Superdome is always a difficult place to play, but especially when the home team is on a roll.
Tennessee (2 - 6) 24 Baltimore (5 - 4) 27: The Ravens find themselves in last place in the very competitive AFC North, so they need to win one the're supposed to keep pace. They should be able to do that against a Titans team that hasn't been able to generate any momentum this season.
Pittsburgh (6 - 3) 30 @ New York Jets (1 - 8) 20: Can Big Ben maintain the incredible passing pace of the last two weeks? The Jets are pretty much done for the season, so I think he can.
Atlanta (2 - 6) 27 @ Tampa (1 - 7) 26: Even though these teams are hopelessly under .500, a run could get them into contention in the division. It's time for Atlanta to start winning, or Falcons' head coach Mike White will be looking for a new home after the season.
Denver (6 - 2) 27 @ Oakland (0 - 8) 17:I expect the Broncos to bounce back, but it won't be a cakewalk against winless Oakland. The Raiders don't look like a team that will go 0 - 16, but I doubt they'll break through today.
St. Louis (3 - 5) 16 @ Arizona (7 - 1) 24: The Cardinals can put their stamp on the division this afternoon. The Rams are tough, but Arizona has too much speed, especially playing at home in the desert.
New York Giants (3 - 5) 24@ Seattle (5 - 3) 30: The Giants have the knack to suddenly show up and play a great game. Maybe that will be today, but it still won't be enough to take down the Seahawks at home.
Chicago (3 - 5) 23 @ Green Bay (5 - 3) 31: Bears' QB Jay Cutler has never won in Green Bay, and the way Chicago is playing doesn't give any indication that his first one will be today. The Packers have caught fire, and are playing great with the exception of last week's performance at New Orleans.
Monday:
Carolina (3 - 5 - 1) 21 @ Philadelphia (6 - 2) 31: The Eagles are poised to keep their lead in the NFC East. The Panthers just haven't been hitting on all cylinders and Philadelphia isn't a great place to play when you need a tune up.
Thursday:
Cleveland (5 - 3) 24 @ Cincinnati (5 - 2 - 1) 27: (From an earlier post): All of a sudden, the AFC North is a real dogfight. The four teams in the division are separated by just a game and a half as we get to the second half of the season. A Bengals' win would give them a sweep of the rest of the division in their first meetings, and put them a leg up in the tiebreaker. Both of these clubs have won their last two, looking to maintain some momentum. Statistically, they're similar, but the Bengals' two losses were blowouts to New England and Indianapolis, both on the road. Cincinnati is a different team at home and I expect them to keep that trend going tonight.
Kansas City (5 - 3) 24 @ Buffalo (5 - 3) 20: This is a good test for both teams as they begin the second half of the season. The Bills are a surprise, the Chiefs aren't. I'll go with the road team here.
Miami (5 - 3) 24 @ Detroit (6 - 2) 27: The Dolphins have suddenly emerged as a playoff contender in the AFC. Detroit is supposed to have Calvin Johnson back in the lineup, not a good sign for Miami.
Dallas (6 - 3) 27 vs. Jacksonville (1 - 8) 17 in London: Tony Romo is listed as probable, but it shouldn't make a difference in who wins, just in the final margin of victory.
San Francisco (4 - 4) 24 @ New Orleans (4 - 4) 30: A tough pick, but the homestanding Saints have taken the lead in the beleaguered NFC South. The Superdome is always a difficult place to play, but especially when the home team is on a roll.
Tennessee (2 - 6) 24 Baltimore (5 - 4) 27: The Ravens find themselves in last place in the very competitive AFC North, so they need to win one the're supposed to keep pace. They should be able to do that against a Titans team that hasn't been able to generate any momentum this season.
Pittsburgh (6 - 3) 30 @ New York Jets (1 - 8) 20: Can Big Ben maintain the incredible passing pace of the last two weeks? The Jets are pretty much done for the season, so I think he can.
Atlanta (2 - 6) 27 @ Tampa (1 - 7) 26: Even though these teams are hopelessly under .500, a run could get them into contention in the division. It's time for Atlanta to start winning, or Falcons' head coach Mike White will be looking for a new home after the season.
Denver (6 - 2) 27 @ Oakland (0 - 8) 17:I expect the Broncos to bounce back, but it won't be a cakewalk against winless Oakland. The Raiders don't look like a team that will go 0 - 16, but I doubt they'll break through today.
St. Louis (3 - 5) 16 @ Arizona (7 - 1) 24: The Cardinals can put their stamp on the division this afternoon. The Rams are tough, but Arizona has too much speed, especially playing at home in the desert.
New York Giants (3 - 5) 24@ Seattle (5 - 3) 30: The Giants have the knack to suddenly show up and play a great game. Maybe that will be today, but it still won't be enough to take down the Seahawks at home.
Chicago (3 - 5) 23 @ Green Bay (5 - 3) 31: Bears' QB Jay Cutler has never won in Green Bay, and the way Chicago is playing doesn't give any indication that his first one will be today. The Packers have caught fire, and are playing great with the exception of last week's performance at New Orleans.
Monday:
Carolina (3 - 5 - 1) 21 @ Philadelphia (6 - 2) 31: The Eagles are poised to keep their lead in the NFC East. The Panthers just haven't been hitting on all cylinders and Philadelphia isn't a great place to play when you need a tune up.
Friday, November 7, 2014
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 11 PICKS
You may or may not agree with the playoff format, but one thing that can't be disputed is the excitement it brings to every week of the college football season. The list of playoff contenders should be whittled further this week, with three games matching one-loss teams and four others where one loss teams face significant challenges. The Big 12 will continue to be more defined, or more muddled, depending on the outcomes Saturday. The Big Ten race, at least in the East, will definitely take shape as Ohio State heads to Michigan State to take on the Spartans. Meanwhile, out west, Oregon travels to Utah in an attempt to put its stamp on the Pac-12 North. And of course, we'll see if Auburn and Alabama can continue to stay alive in their battle to catch Mississippi State in the SEC West.
Thursday (from a previous post):
(21) Clemson (6 - 2) 23 @ Wake Forest (2 - 6) 9: There have been seasons in the recent past where Wake Forest could have been competitive in this game, but the Demon Deacons look more like the Errant Elders. They've managed a paltry 37 points in their four consecutive ACC losses. Clemson is on a five game wining streak, but their offense has sputtered in the last two games. They should still have enough firepower to down the Deacs. The Tigers are still mathematically in contention for the ACC Atlantic crown, but they'll need Florida State to drop a couple of conference games. Not likely, but strange things happen in college football as the season winds down.
Saturday:
UT-Martin (5 - 5) 13 @ (1) Mississippi State (8 - 0) 38: I'm not particularly in favor of how the SEC teams play these cupcake teams in the middle of the conference schedule. This shouldn't be much of a problem for the Bulldogs.
Virginia (4 - 5) 20 @ (1) Florida State (8 - 0) 27: It was Virginia that handed the Seminoles their first ever ACC loss back in the late '90's. The Cavaliers looked impressive earlier in the season, but now have faltered. As long as FSU doesn't look ahead to Miami, they should be able to get past the 'Hoos.
Texas A&M (6 - 3) 28 @ (3) Auburn (7 - 1) 37: The Aggies will be without suspended starting QB Kenny Hill, but they may not lose much effectiveness offensively. Their problem is definitely on the other side of the ball. Auburn has been slowed down, but not stopped very often this season. It will take a heroic defensive effort for A&M to pull the upset.
(4) Oregon (8 - 1) 30 @ (17) Utah (6 - 2) 24: The Ducks are the most impressive non-SEC team I've watched. But Utah has played very well at times, especially at home. This is a tricky one for Oregon, but their speed should win it for them.
(5) Alabama (7 - 1) @ 24 (16) LSU (6 - 2) 23: Talk about your big games! A resurgent LSU team hosts the premier program of the last several years with a playoff berth potentially hanging in the balance for the Tide. LSU lost a Saturday night game to Mississippi State, the effort that vaulted the Bulldogs into national prominence. Since a loss to Ole Miss and a lackluster performance at Arkansas, Alabama has played with renewed focus.
(7) Kansas State (7 - 1) 28 @ (6) TCU (7 - 1) 30: From a rankings perspective, this is the game of the week. The Big 12 is still wide open, with Kansas State, the front runner, with games left at West Virginia and Baylor remaining following this one at TCU. For TCU, with wins already against the top teams in the conference, a victory would be a huge hurdle to cross. This is one of the toughest picks of the season. K-State has done it all year with defense, while TCU has flat outscored people, except when they gave up 61 in a loss to Baylor.
(14) Ohio State (7 - 1) 24 @ (8) Michigan State (7 - 1) 27: From a national standpoint, this may be the highest profile game. With the perceived weakness of the Big Ten, a win by either team positions them for a spot in the conference title game and perhaps a berth in the playoffs. A loss by either team would most likely eliminate them from further playoff consideration. I really like Michigan State's defense, which I think will be the difference in a close contest.
(10) Notre Dame (7 - 1) 27 @ (9) Arizona State (7 - 1) 31: In a premier top ten matchup, the Fighting Irish head to Sun Devil Stadium to take on Arizona State with both teams still in contention for a playoff spot. This is one of many potential elimination games and perhaps the last chance for Notre Dame to impress the committee with a victory over a top ten opponent. The Sun Devils' lone blemish, a blowout loss to UCLA, would look like less of a liability with a win over the Irish. Another very difficult pick, but I'm concerned with the points Notre Dame has given up in recent weeks,
Presbyterian (5 - 4) 6 @ (11) Ole Miss (7 - 2) 38: Why bother? They can add the Methodists and Baptists and still couldn't beat the Rebels. Unfortunately, the Catholics are otherwise occupied in Arizona.
(12) Baylor (7 - 1) 34 @ (15) Oklahoma (6 - 2) 38: The day kicks off in Norman with a dandy. The Sooners are seven points from being undefeated, both losses coming against top ten TCU and Kansas State. I like Oklahoma in this one for a couple of reasons, 1) their schedule has been much tougher than Baylor's and 2) they're playing at home. Baylor is first in scoring, but SMU, Northwestern State, Buffalo, Iowa State and Kansas aren't exactly the SEC West.
(18) UCLA (7 - 2) 27 @ Washington (6 - 3) 20: The Bruins have underperformed this season, but they put together a gem in defeating Arizona last week. Now they head to Seattle to face a dangerous Washington team that has yet to beat a ranked opponent. I don't think that will end this week, with UCLA flexing its newly found defensive muscle.
Colorado (2 - 7) 23 @ (19) Arizona (6 - 2) 34: The Wildcats need to recover from a disappointing loss to UCLA. They should be able to push the Buffaloes around the field and get back on the winning track.
(20) Georgia (6 - 2) 27 @ Kentucky (5 - 4) 21: Georgia's loss to Florida last week opened the door for Missouri to repeat as SEC East champs. But with Texas A&M, Tennessee and Arkansas still to play, a loss for the Tigers is likely. The Bulldogs have to win out in the SEC, not an easy task with Auburn invading Athens next week. This is a clear trap game for Georgia and an opportunity for Mark Stoops to get a signature win and become bowl eligible.
(22) Duke (7 - 1) 30 @ Syracuse (3 - 6) 17: Duke is sitting behind seven two loss teams in the committee's rankings. I would think coach Cutliffe could use that as motivation this week. The Blue Devils control their own destiny in the ACC Coastal and I don't really see anyone left that will challenge this very balanced squad.
(23) West Virginia (6 - 3) 37 @ Texas (4 - 5) 20: The Mountaineers will have to put a tough loss behind them as they head to Austin to take on the Longhorns. Texas beat Texas Tech last week, but scoring against the Red Raiders, well, isn't, you know, very difficult. In fact, the Longhorns helped the Texas Tech points against average by only putting up 34 points. West Virginia should bounce back.
(24) Ga. Tech (7 - 2) 31 @ NC State (5 - 4) 23: Georgia Tech is still in the running for the ACC Coastal crown, but they'll need some help. A tie with Duke by themselves would eliminate the Yellow Jackets, so either the Blue Devils need to lose at least twice or there needs to be a three-way tie for Ga. Tech to have a chance. But first they have to defeat NC State in Raleigh, a team that hasn't really been competitive against winning teams.
(25) Wisconsin (6 - 2) 30 @ Purdue (3 - 6) 16: The Badgers are considerably better than they're 6 - 2 record would suggest. That loss to Northwestern is still a little inexplicable. With the division still up for grabs, I expect to see a dominating performance from Wisconsin.
Louisville (6 - 3) 30 @ Boston College (6 - 3) 24: Both teams are bowl eligible, but this is more about positioning for the future. I have to go with Louisville, although I like the job Boston College has done this season.
Iowa (6 - 2) 23 @ Minnesota (6 - 2) 31: Both of these teams are flying significantly under the radar, yet the winner of this game remains in contention for the Big Ten West crown. That's the good news. The bad news is neither has played Wisconsin or Nebraska. Or is THAT the good news?
Florida (4 - 3) 20 @ Vanderbilt (3 - 6) 13: Florida can become bowl eligible with a couple of wins, but I'm not sure that will be enough to save coach Will Muschamp's job, unless of course the Gators pull off the upset of the year and take down the Seminoles to end the season. Vandy is trying to stay competitive, but it's not working that well.
Thursday (from a previous post):
(21) Clemson (6 - 2) 23 @ Wake Forest (2 - 6) 9: There have been seasons in the recent past where Wake Forest could have been competitive in this game, but the Demon Deacons look more like the Errant Elders. They've managed a paltry 37 points in their four consecutive ACC losses. Clemson is on a five game wining streak, but their offense has sputtered in the last two games. They should still have enough firepower to down the Deacs. The Tigers are still mathematically in contention for the ACC Atlantic crown, but they'll need Florida State to drop a couple of conference games. Not likely, but strange things happen in college football as the season winds down.
Saturday:
UT-Martin (5 - 5) 13 @ (1) Mississippi State (8 - 0) 38: I'm not particularly in favor of how the SEC teams play these cupcake teams in the middle of the conference schedule. This shouldn't be much of a problem for the Bulldogs.
Virginia (4 - 5) 20 @ (1) Florida State (8 - 0) 27: It was Virginia that handed the Seminoles their first ever ACC loss back in the late '90's. The Cavaliers looked impressive earlier in the season, but now have faltered. As long as FSU doesn't look ahead to Miami, they should be able to get past the 'Hoos.
Texas A&M (6 - 3) 28 @ (3) Auburn (7 - 1) 37: The Aggies will be without suspended starting QB Kenny Hill, but they may not lose much effectiveness offensively. Their problem is definitely on the other side of the ball. Auburn has been slowed down, but not stopped very often this season. It will take a heroic defensive effort for A&M to pull the upset.
(4) Oregon (8 - 1) 30 @ (17) Utah (6 - 2) 24: The Ducks are the most impressive non-SEC team I've watched. But Utah has played very well at times, especially at home. This is a tricky one for Oregon, but their speed should win it for them.
(5) Alabama (7 - 1) @ 24 (16) LSU (6 - 2) 23: Talk about your big games! A resurgent LSU team hosts the premier program of the last several years with a playoff berth potentially hanging in the balance for the Tide. LSU lost a Saturday night game to Mississippi State, the effort that vaulted the Bulldogs into national prominence. Since a loss to Ole Miss and a lackluster performance at Arkansas, Alabama has played with renewed focus.
(7) Kansas State (7 - 1) 28 @ (6) TCU (7 - 1) 30: From a rankings perspective, this is the game of the week. The Big 12 is still wide open, with Kansas State, the front runner, with games left at West Virginia and Baylor remaining following this one at TCU. For TCU, with wins already against the top teams in the conference, a victory would be a huge hurdle to cross. This is one of the toughest picks of the season. K-State has done it all year with defense, while TCU has flat outscored people, except when they gave up 61 in a loss to Baylor.
(14) Ohio State (7 - 1) 24 @ (8) Michigan State (7 - 1) 27: From a national standpoint, this may be the highest profile game. With the perceived weakness of the Big Ten, a win by either team positions them for a spot in the conference title game and perhaps a berth in the playoffs. A loss by either team would most likely eliminate them from further playoff consideration. I really like Michigan State's defense, which I think will be the difference in a close contest.
(10) Notre Dame (7 - 1) 27 @ (9) Arizona State (7 - 1) 31: In a premier top ten matchup, the Fighting Irish head to Sun Devil Stadium to take on Arizona State with both teams still in contention for a playoff spot. This is one of many potential elimination games and perhaps the last chance for Notre Dame to impress the committee with a victory over a top ten opponent. The Sun Devils' lone blemish, a blowout loss to UCLA, would look like less of a liability with a win over the Irish. Another very difficult pick, but I'm concerned with the points Notre Dame has given up in recent weeks,
Presbyterian (5 - 4) 6 @ (11) Ole Miss (7 - 2) 38: Why bother? They can add the Methodists and Baptists and still couldn't beat the Rebels. Unfortunately, the Catholics are otherwise occupied in Arizona.
(12) Baylor (7 - 1) 34 @ (15) Oklahoma (6 - 2) 38: The day kicks off in Norman with a dandy. The Sooners are seven points from being undefeated, both losses coming against top ten TCU and Kansas State. I like Oklahoma in this one for a couple of reasons, 1) their schedule has been much tougher than Baylor's and 2) they're playing at home. Baylor is first in scoring, but SMU, Northwestern State, Buffalo, Iowa State and Kansas aren't exactly the SEC West.
(18) UCLA (7 - 2) 27 @ Washington (6 - 3) 20: The Bruins have underperformed this season, but they put together a gem in defeating Arizona last week. Now they head to Seattle to face a dangerous Washington team that has yet to beat a ranked opponent. I don't think that will end this week, with UCLA flexing its newly found defensive muscle.
Colorado (2 - 7) 23 @ (19) Arizona (6 - 2) 34: The Wildcats need to recover from a disappointing loss to UCLA. They should be able to push the Buffaloes around the field and get back on the winning track.
(20) Georgia (6 - 2) 27 @ Kentucky (5 - 4) 21: Georgia's loss to Florida last week opened the door for Missouri to repeat as SEC East champs. But with Texas A&M, Tennessee and Arkansas still to play, a loss for the Tigers is likely. The Bulldogs have to win out in the SEC, not an easy task with Auburn invading Athens next week. This is a clear trap game for Georgia and an opportunity for Mark Stoops to get a signature win and become bowl eligible.
(22) Duke (7 - 1) 30 @ Syracuse (3 - 6) 17: Duke is sitting behind seven two loss teams in the committee's rankings. I would think coach Cutliffe could use that as motivation this week. The Blue Devils control their own destiny in the ACC Coastal and I don't really see anyone left that will challenge this very balanced squad.
(23) West Virginia (6 - 3) 37 @ Texas (4 - 5) 20: The Mountaineers will have to put a tough loss behind them as they head to Austin to take on the Longhorns. Texas beat Texas Tech last week, but scoring against the Red Raiders, well, isn't, you know, very difficult. In fact, the Longhorns helped the Texas Tech points against average by only putting up 34 points. West Virginia should bounce back.
(24) Ga. Tech (7 - 2) 31 @ NC State (5 - 4) 23: Georgia Tech is still in the running for the ACC Coastal crown, but they'll need some help. A tie with Duke by themselves would eliminate the Yellow Jackets, so either the Blue Devils need to lose at least twice or there needs to be a three-way tie for Ga. Tech to have a chance. But first they have to defeat NC State in Raleigh, a team that hasn't really been competitive against winning teams.
(25) Wisconsin (6 - 2) 30 @ Purdue (3 - 6) 16: The Badgers are considerably better than they're 6 - 2 record would suggest. That loss to Northwestern is still a little inexplicable. With the division still up for grabs, I expect to see a dominating performance from Wisconsin.
Louisville (6 - 3) 30 @ Boston College (6 - 3) 24: Both teams are bowl eligible, but this is more about positioning for the future. I have to go with Louisville, although I like the job Boston College has done this season.
Iowa (6 - 2) 23 @ Minnesota (6 - 2) 31: Both of these teams are flying significantly under the radar, yet the winner of this game remains in contention for the Big Ten West crown. That's the good news. The bad news is neither has played Wisconsin or Nebraska. Or is THAT the good news?
Florida (4 - 3) 20 @ Vanderbilt (3 - 6) 13: Florida can become bowl eligible with a couple of wins, but I'm not sure that will be enough to save coach Will Muschamp's job, unless of course the Gators pull off the upset of the year and take down the Seminoles to end the season. Vandy is trying to stay competitive, but it's not working that well.
Thursday, November 6, 2014
WEEK TEN COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS RECAP
The playoff picture got a little clearer, with Ole Miss getting eliminated by Auburn, as I thought they would. Starting next week, I'll be giving my own prediction on who the final four will be. While I like the idea of revealing a top four every week, it's obvious that the selection committee isn't really taking into consideration the upcoming games, or they wouldn't have included Mississippi State, Auburn and Ole Miss in the top four. My top twenty picks were pretty good, but Penn State, Oregon State and my own Hokies let me down.
Last Week: 14 - 7
Overall: 161 - 67
Thursday night (from an earlier blog):
(2) Florida State (7 - 0) 27 @ (25) Louisville (6 - 2) 24: Correct. for some reason, an ESPN poll has Florida State with a 34% chance of winning out. Really? Virginia, Miami, Boston College and Florida don't exactly sound like murderers row. I like for the 'Noles to run the table and defeat Duke in the ACC championship game. Florida State 42 - 31.
Arkansas (4 - 4) 24 @ (1) Mississippi State (7 - 0) 31: Correct. Eventually a young Arkansas team will figure out a way to close the deal. When they do, watch out. As far as Mississippi State goes, I don't think they'll get through unscathed. Mississippi State 17 - 13.
(3) Auburn (6 1) 20 @ (4) Ole Miss (7 - 1) 17: Correct. Auburn's lone loss to Mississippi State continues to look good as long as the Bulldogs keep winning. The Tigers don't control their own destiny, but could be in the playoff mix if they win out. Auburn 35 - 31.
Stanford (5 - 3) 23 @ (5) Oregon (7 - 1) 28: Correct. The Oregon seniors took out a lot of frustration on the Cardinal as they got their first win over Stanford. A big trip to Utah awaits the Ducks, but they are a good bet to meet and beat the Pac-12 South champ to advance to the playoff. Oregon 45 - 16.
(7) TCU (6 - 1) 37 @ (20) West Virginia (6 - 2) 40: No. West Virginia is clearly the best three loss team. Losses to Alabama (5), Oklahoma (15) and now TCU (6) are nothing to be ashamed of. They can still play a big roll in the playoff picture as they host Kansas State in a big Thursday night game on November 20. TCU 31 - 30.
Oklahoma State (5 - 3) 16 @ (9) Kansas State (6 - 1) 28: Correct. Speaking of the Wildcats, they got ready for a big showdown at TCU by drubbing the Cowboys. No trap game in this one. Kansas State 48 - 14.
(10) Notre Dame (6 - 1) 30 vs. Navy (4 - 4) 21 in Landover, Md.: Correct. Navy hung close, but as expected got worn down in the fourth quarter. The Irish shouldn't be considered for the playoff unless their defense can start stopping people. If Navy can score 39, what's Arizona State going to put on the board? Notre Dame 49 - 39.
Florida (3 -3) 20 vs. (11) Georgia (6 -1) 34 in Jacksonville, FL: No. I didn't see this one coming at all. Georgia had been on a big roll since the Todd Gurley suspension and the Gators have been struggling for most of the season. The loss definitely knocks the Bulldogs from playoff consideration and the win gives Florida hope for the rest of the season. Florida 38 - 20.
(12) Arizona (6 - 1) 37 @ (22) UCLA (6 - 2) 34: No. UCLA played a defensive gem, holding Rich Rod's high powered offense in check. The Bruins don't have a shot at the playoffs, but can still make it to the conference championship game. UCLA 17 - 7.
Kansas (2 - 5) 13 @ (13) Baylor (6 - 1) 41: Correct. I predicted that this one could get ugly, and it did. Enough said. Baylor 60 - 14.
(17) Utah (6 - 1) 20 @ (14) Arizona State (6 - 1) 37: Correct. This was a terrific, if low scoring game. I just can't count the Sun Devils out yet as they control their own destiny in winning the Pac-12 South and a possible date with Oregon to reach the playoffs. Arizona State 19 - 16.
Purdue (3 - 5) 17 @ (15) Nebraska (7 - 1) 35: Correct. Nebraska might be the best team no one is talking about. I didn't give them much chance early in the season, but they've dominated most of their opponents and are just a touchdown short at Michigan State form being undefeated. They get an off week before meeting Wisconsin in their next game. Don't count these guys out. Nebraska 35 - 14.
Illinois (4 - 4) 24 @ (16) Ohio State (6 - 1) 34: Correct. The Buckeyes face Michigan State this week in what is a playoff elimination game. The winner positions itself to play for the Big Ten title against any number of challengers, but most likely Nebraska or Wisconsin. Ohio State 55 - 14.
(18) Oklahoma (5 - 2) 34 @ Iowa State (2 - 5) 23: Correct. Bob Stoops has his Sooners focused on playing well, despite being out of the playoff hunt. They can still be a major spoiler against Gaylr this week. Oklahoma 59 - 14.
(23) East Carolina (6 - 1) 30 @ Temple 21: No. The Pirates really stubbed their toe in an effort tot play their way into a major bowl game. They held the Owls to less than 200 yards, but turnovers doomed them to a loss. Temple 20 - 10.
(24) Duke (6 - 1) 28 @ Pittsburgh (4 - 4) 17: Correct. Duke's only loss was at Miami, yet the committee has them stuck behind eight two-loss teams and just ahead of a three-loss team. This team could very well run the table to face Florida State in the ACC championship game. Duke 51 - 48 2OT.
Boston College (5 - 3) 20 @ Virginia Tech (4 - 4) 24: No. four of the Hokies' five losses have come near the end of the game. If they can't find a way to win a couple down the stretch, Virginia Tech's 21 consecutive bowl streak will be coming to screeching halt. Meanwhile, BC is playing well enough to pull a surprise or two the rest of the way. Boston College 33 - 31.
Virginia (4 - 4) 20 @ Georgia Tech (6 - 2) 27: Correct. Virginia, after a strong start, appears to be fading. The Yellow Jackets need to win out in the conference, not so easy a task as they have Clemson left on the schedule, and hope for a Duke loss and for Miami to keep winning. Stranger things have happened in the ACC Coastal. Georgia Tech 35 - 10.
Texas (3 - 5) 37 @ Texas Tech (3 - 5) 34: Correct. The Longhorns showed a glimpse of things to come in Austin. They're still in contention for a bowl game if they can win a couple. Not an easy task as they host West Virginia and TCU around a road trip to Oklahoma State. Texas 34 - 13.
California (4 - 4) 34 @ Oregon St. (4 - 3) 40: No. Cal has lost their last three while the Beavers have dropped three of their last four. Not exactly a lot of momentum being brought into this game. When in doubt, I take the home team.California 45 - 31.
Maryland (5 - 3) 19 @ Penn St. (4 - 3) 24: No. Maryland is bowl eligible after an upset in not so Happy Valley. Maryland 20 - 19.
Last Week: 14 - 7
Overall: 161 - 67
Thursday night (from an earlier blog):
(2) Florida State (7 - 0) 27 @ (25) Louisville (6 - 2) 24: Correct. for some reason, an ESPN poll has Florida State with a 34% chance of winning out. Really? Virginia, Miami, Boston College and Florida don't exactly sound like murderers row. I like for the 'Noles to run the table and defeat Duke in the ACC championship game. Florida State 42 - 31.
Arkansas (4 - 4) 24 @ (1) Mississippi State (7 - 0) 31: Correct. Eventually a young Arkansas team will figure out a way to close the deal. When they do, watch out. As far as Mississippi State goes, I don't think they'll get through unscathed. Mississippi State 17 - 13.
(3) Auburn (6 1) 20 @ (4) Ole Miss (7 - 1) 17: Correct. Auburn's lone loss to Mississippi State continues to look good as long as the Bulldogs keep winning. The Tigers don't control their own destiny, but could be in the playoff mix if they win out. Auburn 35 - 31.
Stanford (5 - 3) 23 @ (5) Oregon (7 - 1) 28: Correct. The Oregon seniors took out a lot of frustration on the Cardinal as they got their first win over Stanford. A big trip to Utah awaits the Ducks, but they are a good bet to meet and beat the Pac-12 South champ to advance to the playoff. Oregon 45 - 16.
(7) TCU (6 - 1) 37 @ (20) West Virginia (6 - 2) 40: No. West Virginia is clearly the best three loss team. Losses to Alabama (5), Oklahoma (15) and now TCU (6) are nothing to be ashamed of. They can still play a big roll in the playoff picture as they host Kansas State in a big Thursday night game on November 20. TCU 31 - 30.
Oklahoma State (5 - 3) 16 @ (9) Kansas State (6 - 1) 28: Correct. Speaking of the Wildcats, they got ready for a big showdown at TCU by drubbing the Cowboys. No trap game in this one. Kansas State 48 - 14.
(10) Notre Dame (6 - 1) 30 vs. Navy (4 - 4) 21 in Landover, Md.: Correct. Navy hung close, but as expected got worn down in the fourth quarter. The Irish shouldn't be considered for the playoff unless their defense can start stopping people. If Navy can score 39, what's Arizona State going to put on the board? Notre Dame 49 - 39.
Florida (3 -3) 20 vs. (11) Georgia (6 -1) 34 in Jacksonville, FL: No. I didn't see this one coming at all. Georgia had been on a big roll since the Todd Gurley suspension and the Gators have been struggling for most of the season. The loss definitely knocks the Bulldogs from playoff consideration and the win gives Florida hope for the rest of the season. Florida 38 - 20.
(12) Arizona (6 - 1) 37 @ (22) UCLA (6 - 2) 34: No. UCLA played a defensive gem, holding Rich Rod's high powered offense in check. The Bruins don't have a shot at the playoffs, but can still make it to the conference championship game. UCLA 17 - 7.
Kansas (2 - 5) 13 @ (13) Baylor (6 - 1) 41: Correct. I predicted that this one could get ugly, and it did. Enough said. Baylor 60 - 14.
(17) Utah (6 - 1) 20 @ (14) Arizona State (6 - 1) 37: Correct. This was a terrific, if low scoring game. I just can't count the Sun Devils out yet as they control their own destiny in winning the Pac-12 South and a possible date with Oregon to reach the playoffs. Arizona State 19 - 16.
Purdue (3 - 5) 17 @ (15) Nebraska (7 - 1) 35: Correct. Nebraska might be the best team no one is talking about. I didn't give them much chance early in the season, but they've dominated most of their opponents and are just a touchdown short at Michigan State form being undefeated. They get an off week before meeting Wisconsin in their next game. Don't count these guys out. Nebraska 35 - 14.
Illinois (4 - 4) 24 @ (16) Ohio State (6 - 1) 34: Correct. The Buckeyes face Michigan State this week in what is a playoff elimination game. The winner positions itself to play for the Big Ten title against any number of challengers, but most likely Nebraska or Wisconsin. Ohio State 55 - 14.
(18) Oklahoma (5 - 2) 34 @ Iowa State (2 - 5) 23: Correct. Bob Stoops has his Sooners focused on playing well, despite being out of the playoff hunt. They can still be a major spoiler against Gaylr this week. Oklahoma 59 - 14.
(23) East Carolina (6 - 1) 30 @ Temple 21: No. The Pirates really stubbed their toe in an effort tot play their way into a major bowl game. They held the Owls to less than 200 yards, but turnovers doomed them to a loss. Temple 20 - 10.
(24) Duke (6 - 1) 28 @ Pittsburgh (4 - 4) 17: Correct. Duke's only loss was at Miami, yet the committee has them stuck behind eight two-loss teams and just ahead of a three-loss team. This team could very well run the table to face Florida State in the ACC championship game. Duke 51 - 48 2OT.
Boston College (5 - 3) 20 @ Virginia Tech (4 - 4) 24: No. four of the Hokies' five losses have come near the end of the game. If they can't find a way to win a couple down the stretch, Virginia Tech's 21 consecutive bowl streak will be coming to screeching halt. Meanwhile, BC is playing well enough to pull a surprise or two the rest of the way. Boston College 33 - 31.
Virginia (4 - 4) 20 @ Georgia Tech (6 - 2) 27: Correct. Virginia, after a strong start, appears to be fading. The Yellow Jackets need to win out in the conference, not so easy a task as they have Clemson left on the schedule, and hope for a Duke loss and for Miami to keep winning. Stranger things have happened in the ACC Coastal. Georgia Tech 35 - 10.
Texas (3 - 5) 37 @ Texas Tech (3 - 5) 34: Correct. The Longhorns showed a glimpse of things to come in Austin. They're still in contention for a bowl game if they can win a couple. Not an easy task as they host West Virginia and TCU around a road trip to Oklahoma State. Texas 34 - 13.
California (4 - 4) 34 @ Oregon St. (4 - 3) 40: No. Cal has lost their last three while the Beavers have dropped three of their last four. Not exactly a lot of momentum being brought into this game. When in doubt, I take the home team.California 45 - 31.
Maryland (5 - 3) 19 @ Penn St. (4 - 3) 24: No. Maryland is bowl eligible after an upset in not so Happy Valley. Maryland 20 - 19.
WEEK NINE NFL PICKS RECAP
The Patriots, left for dead after week 4, have suddenly roared back to life behind Tom Brady. It was very impressive dismantling of Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos Sunday evening. And don't look now, but another team that struggled early in the season, the Pittsburgh Steelers, have turned into a touchdown passing machine with Ben Roethlisberger at the helm. Thanks to a weak division, the Saints have fought their way back into playoff consideration, sitting atop the woeful NFC South.
Last Week: 8 - 4
Overall: 88 - 46 - 1
New Orleans (3 - 4) 27 @ Carolina (3 - 4 - 1) 30: No. The Saints have re-emerged as a playoff contender, ousting the Panthers to take the division lead. But the next four weeks present San Francisco followed by three AFC North foes before a relatively easy final quarter of the season. New Orleans 28 - 10.
Tampa Bay (1 - 6) 17 @ Cleveland (4 - 3) 24: Correct. Tampa Bay probable isn't quite as bad as their record would indicate, but they just can't seem to put four quarters together to come up with a couple of wins. Cleveland 22 - 17.
Arizona (6 - 1) 27 @ Dallas (6 - 2) 20: Correct. No Romo, no win. It's tough to beat what may be the best team in the NFC without your starting QB. Arizona 28 - 17.
Philadelphia (5 - 2) 26 @ Houston (4 - 4) 23: Correct. Chip Kelly has the Eagles in a good spot heading into the second half of the season, even if he has to go with Mark Sanchez at QB in place of injured Nick Foles. Philadelphia 31 - 21.
New York Jets (1 - 7) 14 @ Kansas City (4 - 3) 27: Correct. the Jets are a disaster and KC hopes to have a better finish to the season than they did a year ago. Kansas City 24 - 10.
Jacksonville (1 - 7) 20 @ Cincinnati (4 - 2 - 1) 31: Correct. The Bengals tuned up for their big contest with Cleveland by taking care of business against the Jags. Cincinnati 33 - 23.
San Diego (5 - 3) 27 @ Miami (4 - 3) 24: No. For team that looked like a Super Bowl contender, the Chargers have all but imploded the last three weeks. They'll need to figure something out during their bye week to see if they can get back in the hunt for a playoff spot. And what about the resurgent Dolphins? Miami 37 - 0.
Washington (3 - 5) 23 @ Minnesota (5 3) 20: No. The Redskins had this one in their hands and let the Vikings come back for a tough win. RGIII performed well, but he doesn't play defense. Minnesota 29 - 26.
Denver (6 - 1) 34 @ New England (6 - 2) 31: No. I guess I should have gone with history in this one. I wouldn't be surprised if this was an AFC championship preview. New England 43 - 21.
Oakland (0 - 7) 13 @ Seattle (4 - 3) 30: Correct. Oakland almost pulled a shocker of a comeback in an attempt to get their first win. The Seahawks just don't seem to have the same defensive strength that they did last year, so it will be interesting to see if they can find a way to overtake the Cardinals. Seattle 30 - 24.
Baltimore (5 - 3) 20 @ Pittsburgh (5 - 3) 23: Correct. Big Ben is hitting on all cylinders as his offensive line gels, giving him all day to throw. I'd have to put them up there with New England and Denver as the top AFC teams right now. Pittsburgh 43 - 23.
Indianapolis (5 - 3) 27 @ New York Giants (3 - 4) 24: Correct. The Colts rebounded nicely from the the drilling at the hands of Pittsburgh. The AFC is going to be a track meet to the finish. Indianapolis 40 - 24.
Last Week: 8 - 4
Overall: 88 - 46 - 1
New Orleans (3 - 4) 27 @ Carolina (3 - 4 - 1) 30: No. The Saints have re-emerged as a playoff contender, ousting the Panthers to take the division lead. But the next four weeks present San Francisco followed by three AFC North foes before a relatively easy final quarter of the season. New Orleans 28 - 10.
Tampa Bay (1 - 6) 17 @ Cleveland (4 - 3) 24: Correct. Tampa Bay probable isn't quite as bad as their record would indicate, but they just can't seem to put four quarters together to come up with a couple of wins. Cleveland 22 - 17.
Arizona (6 - 1) 27 @ Dallas (6 - 2) 20: Correct. No Romo, no win. It's tough to beat what may be the best team in the NFC without your starting QB. Arizona 28 - 17.
Philadelphia (5 - 2) 26 @ Houston (4 - 4) 23: Correct. Chip Kelly has the Eagles in a good spot heading into the second half of the season, even if he has to go with Mark Sanchez at QB in place of injured Nick Foles. Philadelphia 31 - 21.
New York Jets (1 - 7) 14 @ Kansas City (4 - 3) 27: Correct. the Jets are a disaster and KC hopes to have a better finish to the season than they did a year ago. Kansas City 24 - 10.
Jacksonville (1 - 7) 20 @ Cincinnati (4 - 2 - 1) 31: Correct. The Bengals tuned up for their big contest with Cleveland by taking care of business against the Jags. Cincinnati 33 - 23.
San Diego (5 - 3) 27 @ Miami (4 - 3) 24: No. For team that looked like a Super Bowl contender, the Chargers have all but imploded the last three weeks. They'll need to figure something out during their bye week to see if they can get back in the hunt for a playoff spot. And what about the resurgent Dolphins? Miami 37 - 0.
Washington (3 - 5) 23 @ Minnesota (5 3) 20: No. The Redskins had this one in their hands and let the Vikings come back for a tough win. RGIII performed well, but he doesn't play defense. Minnesota 29 - 26.
Denver (6 - 1) 34 @ New England (6 - 2) 31: No. I guess I should have gone with history in this one. I wouldn't be surprised if this was an AFC championship preview. New England 43 - 21.
Oakland (0 - 7) 13 @ Seattle (4 - 3) 30: Correct. Oakland almost pulled a shocker of a comeback in an attempt to get their first win. The Seahawks just don't seem to have the same defensive strength that they did last year, so it will be interesting to see if they can find a way to overtake the Cardinals. Seattle 30 - 24.
Baltimore (5 - 3) 20 @ Pittsburgh (5 - 3) 23: Correct. Big Ben is hitting on all cylinders as his offensive line gels, giving him all day to throw. I'd have to put them up there with New England and Denver as the top AFC teams right now. Pittsburgh 43 - 23.
Indianapolis (5 - 3) 27 @ New York Giants (3 - 4) 24: Correct. The Colts rebounded nicely from the the drilling at the hands of Pittsburgh. The AFC is going to be a track meet to the finish. Indianapolis 40 - 24.
THURSDAY NIGHT COLLEGE AND NFL FOOTBALL PICKS
We are heading into the home stretch in the college schedule and entering the second half of the NFL season. Tonight's slate gives us one potential blowout and another game that could be very exciting. Clemson heads to Wake Forest favored by 21 points as one of four and a half, yes, I said four and a half, ranked teams from the ACC. The half is for Notre Dame's quasi membership status in the league. In the pros, Ohio rivals Cleveland and Cincinnati square off on banks of the river that bears the state's name. This one should be close, unless the Bengals play like they did against Indianapolis and New England.
College:
(21) Clemson (6 - 2) 23 @ Wake Forest (2 - 6) 9: There have been seasons in the recent past where Wake Forest could have been competitive in this game, but the Demon Deacons look more like the Errant Elders. They've managed a paltry 37 points in their four consecutive ACC losses. Clemson is on a five game wining streak, but their offense has sputtered in the last two games. They should still have enough firepower to down the Deacs. The Tigers are still mathematically in contention for the ACC Atlantic crown, but they'll need Florida State to drop a couple of conference games. Not likely, but strange things happen in college football as the season winds down.
NFL:
Cleveland (5 - 3) 24 @ Cincinnati (5 - 2 - 1) 27: All of a sudden, the AFC North is a real dogfight. The four teams in the division are separated by just a game and a half as we get to the second half of the season. A Bengals' win would give them a sweep of the rest of the division in their first meetings, and put them a leg up in the tiebreaker. Both of these clubs have won their last two, looking to maintain some momentum. Statistically, they're similar, but the Bengals' two losses were blowouts to New England and Indianapolis, both on the road. Cincinnati is a different team at home and I expect them to keep that trend going tonight.
College:
(21) Clemson (6 - 2) 23 @ Wake Forest (2 - 6) 9: There have been seasons in the recent past where Wake Forest could have been competitive in this game, but the Demon Deacons look more like the Errant Elders. They've managed a paltry 37 points in their four consecutive ACC losses. Clemson is on a five game wining streak, but their offense has sputtered in the last two games. They should still have enough firepower to down the Deacs. The Tigers are still mathematically in contention for the ACC Atlantic crown, but they'll need Florida State to drop a couple of conference games. Not likely, but strange things happen in college football as the season winds down.
NFL:
Cleveland (5 - 3) 24 @ Cincinnati (5 - 2 - 1) 27: All of a sudden, the AFC North is a real dogfight. The four teams in the division are separated by just a game and a half as we get to the second half of the season. A Bengals' win would give them a sweep of the rest of the division in their first meetings, and put them a leg up in the tiebreaker. Both of these clubs have won their last two, looking to maintain some momentum. Statistically, they're similar, but the Bengals' two losses were blowouts to New England and Indianapolis, both on the road. Cincinnati is a different team at home and I expect them to keep that trend going tonight.
Sunday, November 2, 2014
WEEEK NINE NFL PICKS
We're at the halfway point on the NFL season with the cream starting to rise to the top. Arizona and Denver, the league's one loss team, face tough tests on the road, while the lone winless team, Oakland, heads to the toughest place for visitors to win. As Washington heads to Minnesota, third year QB RGIII finally makes his way back to the lineup. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for him to shake off the rust.
Overall: 80 - 42 - 1
Tampa Bay (1 - 6) 17 @ Cleveland (4 - 3) 24: The Browns need to win to keep up with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, one of which will move to 6 - 3 today. The Bucs have shown brief...okay, very brief, flashes of promise this season.
Arizona (6 - 1) 27 @ Dallas (6 - 2) 20: The Cardinals, despite a loss to Peyton Manning and the Broncos, have been as consistent as anyone but, well, Denver. Dallas will be without starting QB Tony Romo, who sustained a bruised back during their loss to Washington.
Philadelphia (5 - 2) 26 @ Houston (4 - 4) 23: The Texans have been up and down in the first half of the season, with only one of their wins coming against a team with a winning record. Likewise for the Eagles. who need a big victory to get back some of the momentum from earlier in the season.
New York Jets (1 - 7) 14 @ Kansas City (4 - 3) 27: Either the Jets start a miraculous turnaround today or Rex Ryan can start thinking about what he might be doing at this time next year, because it won't be coaching the Jets. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are hoping to beat a team they should.
Jacksonville (1 - 7) 20 @ Cincinnati (4 - 2 - 1) 31: I just don't see how the Jags are going to stay on the field with the Bengals, but this is the NFL and strange things happen on the way to L.A. At least that's the most likely destination for the Jacksonville franchise, despite the fact that they have a cool pool in their stadium.
San Diego (5 - 3) 27 @ Miami (4 - 3) 24: The Dolphins are a slight favorite in this game, but if San Diego plays like they can, this shouldn't be that close. I like the Chargers to recapture the good play that had them at 5 - 1 before consecutive losses to Kansas City and Denver.
Washington (3 - 5) 23 @ Minnesota (5 3) 20: RGIII will be back in action today and Washington hopes the QB merry-go-round sill stop. The big questions are 1) will RGIII be able to be effective after missing 6+ games and 2) how long will he be able to stay healthy? I like the way the 'Skins can play defense, so I'll go with them to eke another one out on the road.
Denver (6 - 1) 34 @ New England (6 - 2) 31: This is the 16th meeting between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Both teams are hot, winners of four straight, all but one of the eight games being decided by double digits. The Broncos have beaten a little more impressive group of teams, but probably not by a large margin. History would dictate this one will go the the Patriots, but...
Oakland (0 - 7) 13 @ Seattle (4 - 3) 30: The line on this game is Seattle by 15. Ouch! That's a huge margin for an NFL game, yet I can't think of any reason to go with the Raiders. Seattle hasn't looked very impressive the last few weeks, but that doesn't mean they won't dismantle Oakland.
Baltimore (5 - 3) 20 @ Pittsburgh (5 - 3) 23: After the Denver - New England game, this is the other one to see. The Steelers have suddenly started playing like the Super Bowl teams from the last decade. Their performance in Baltimore earlier this season was dismal at best, so they'll have plenty of motivation to avenge the loss.
Indianapolis (5 - 3) 27 @ New York Giants (3 - 4) 24: The Colts inexplicably laid an egg last week against the Steelers, giving Ben Roethlisberger what seemed like minutes to throw, resulting in a record breaking performance by the Pittsburgh QB. I don't see Eli Manning getting the same consideration.
Overall: 80 - 42 - 1
Tampa Bay (1 - 6) 17 @ Cleveland (4 - 3) 24: The Browns need to win to keep up with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, one of which will move to 6 - 3 today. The Bucs have shown brief...okay, very brief, flashes of promise this season.
Arizona (6 - 1) 27 @ Dallas (6 - 2) 20: The Cardinals, despite a loss to Peyton Manning and the Broncos, have been as consistent as anyone but, well, Denver. Dallas will be without starting QB Tony Romo, who sustained a bruised back during their loss to Washington.
Philadelphia (5 - 2) 26 @ Houston (4 - 4) 23: The Texans have been up and down in the first half of the season, with only one of their wins coming against a team with a winning record. Likewise for the Eagles. who need a big victory to get back some of the momentum from earlier in the season.
New York Jets (1 - 7) 14 @ Kansas City (4 - 3) 27: Either the Jets start a miraculous turnaround today or Rex Ryan can start thinking about what he might be doing at this time next year, because it won't be coaching the Jets. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are hoping to beat a team they should.
Jacksonville (1 - 7) 20 @ Cincinnati (4 - 2 - 1) 31: I just don't see how the Jags are going to stay on the field with the Bengals, but this is the NFL and strange things happen on the way to L.A. At least that's the most likely destination for the Jacksonville franchise, despite the fact that they have a cool pool in their stadium.
San Diego (5 - 3) 27 @ Miami (4 - 3) 24: The Dolphins are a slight favorite in this game, but if San Diego plays like they can, this shouldn't be that close. I like the Chargers to recapture the good play that had them at 5 - 1 before consecutive losses to Kansas City and Denver.
Washington (3 - 5) 23 @ Minnesota (5 3) 20: RGIII will be back in action today and Washington hopes the QB merry-go-round sill stop. The big questions are 1) will RGIII be able to be effective after missing 6+ games and 2) how long will he be able to stay healthy? I like the way the 'Skins can play defense, so I'll go with them to eke another one out on the road.
Denver (6 - 1) 34 @ New England (6 - 2) 31: This is the 16th meeting between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Both teams are hot, winners of four straight, all but one of the eight games being decided by double digits. The Broncos have beaten a little more impressive group of teams, but probably not by a large margin. History would dictate this one will go the the Patriots, but...
Oakland (0 - 7) 13 @ Seattle (4 - 3) 30: The line on this game is Seattle by 15. Ouch! That's a huge margin for an NFL game, yet I can't think of any reason to go with the Raiders. Seattle hasn't looked very impressive the last few weeks, but that doesn't mean they won't dismantle Oakland.
Baltimore (5 - 3) 20 @ Pittsburgh (5 - 3) 23: After the Denver - New England game, this is the other one to see. The Steelers have suddenly started playing like the Super Bowl teams from the last decade. Their performance in Baltimore earlier this season was dismal at best, so they'll have plenty of motivation to avenge the loss.
Indianapolis (5 - 3) 27 @ New York Giants (3 - 4) 24: The Colts inexplicably laid an egg last week against the Steelers, giving Ben Roethlisberger what seemed like minutes to throw, resulting in a record breaking performance by the Pittsburgh QB. I don't see Eli Manning getting the same consideration.
Saturday, November 1, 2014
WEEK 10 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS
The first ever college football playoff rankings were released last week and they were totally meaningless. I don't mean that they weren't well meaning and probably pretty accurate. I just mean that since three of the top four teams are in the same division of their conference, there is no way for the current top four to survive all the way to the playoffs. There are just so many one-loss teams that can make it in by running the table. It's impossible for Ole Miss, Auburn and Alabama to win out since they have yet to play each other. Even top-ranked Mississippi State still has Alabama and Ole Miss left on their schedule, not to mention a potential match-up with one-loss Georgia in the SEC Championship game. And that's just the SEC West. I could go on and on if I go down the list of the rest of the Big Five conferences. So you can have your weekly rankings, I'll tune in on Dec. 7 for the final announcement.
Overall: 147 - 60
Thursday night (from an earlier blog):
(2) Florida State (7 - 0) 27 @ (25) Louisville (6 - 2) 24: It's popular to think that this is the game that will disrupt the Seminoles' run to the playoffs. I disagree, but it will probably be close. Until Jameis Winston leaves Florida State or is benched for one of his many indiscretions, I think he is good enough to lead his team to an undefeated season. If so, they will most likely be the only one without a loss, given the tough schedule that Mississippi State faces the rest of the way. Look for Florida State to find a way to keep their streak alive on the road against a team that will be very dangerous in the ACC in seasons to come.
Arkansas (4 - 4) 24 @ (1) Mississippi State (7 - 0) 31: The Razorbacks have forced Auburn, Texas A&M and Alabama to give it their all, yet still lack an SEC victory. With their running game, Arkansas should be able to stay with anyone, as long as they stay with it. Against Georgia, the Hogs inexplicably abandoned the ground game on first down. I doubt that happens in Starkville, but I don't see Arkansas stopping the Bulldogs.
(3) Auburn (6 1) 20 @ (4) Ole Miss (7 - 1) 17: This is one BIG football game. Of course, there are a lot of BIG games this week, but this is definitely a playoff elimination contest. Auburn has been in a lot of important game the last couple of years and has only failed to win a couple of them. Ole Miss hasn't been in many and has really only prevailed in a single game of this caliber, coming from behind to upend Alabama.
Stanford (5 - 3) 23 @ (5) Oregon (7 - 1) 28: The Ducks are one of my picks to be in the final four. Their loss to Arizona at home was a bit of fluke. Stanford doesn't have the same team as the past few years, so I don't see them being able to outscore Oregon.
(7) TCU (6 - 1) 37 @ (20) West Virginia (6 - 2) 40: TCU put up 82 points, yes, that number is correct, last week. Now they head to a top ten team's nightmare of a venue in Morgantown. West Virginia is on a roll and are playing a lot better than when they lost to Oklahoma earlier in the season. I'm still not convinced TCU can outscore everyone they play. I'll stick with the Mountaineers is a big upset.
Oklahoma State (5 - 3) 16 @ (9) Kansas State (6 - 1) 28: Kansas State's lone loss to this point was a close one to Auburn. If Auburn and the Wildcats continue to win, it could set up a semifinal matchup in the playoffs. I don't count either one out at this point. But if K-State is going to run the table, their defense is going to have to step up big against Baylor, TCU and West Virginia, all on the road. They should be able to get by the Cowboys this week to set up the murderous finish to their schedule.
(10) Notre Dame (6 - 1) 30 vs. Navy (4 - 4) 21 in Landover, Md.: The Irish lost a heartbreaker to Florida State and then got shuffled down to tenth in the playoff committee rankings. This could go one of two ways in my opinion. Notre Dame could come out on fire and overwhelm the Middies, or they could come out flat and let Navy squeak out an upset victory. I think the Irish have too much for a pretty good Navy team that is a cut below their recent teams, so I'll go with the former.
Florida (3 -3) 20 vs. (11) Georgia (6 -1) 34 in Jacksonville, FL: This is one of the classic college football rivalries played in a neutral site every year. The Bulldogs seem to have caught fire since the Todd Gurley suspension, which will end after Saturday's game. Florida is probably preparing for a coaching change, as a bowl game would be a huge accomplishment, requiring at least one win against Georgia, South Carolina or Florida State, while assuming they take care of business against Vanderbilt.
(12) Arizona (6 - 1) 37 @ (22) UCLA (6 - 2) 34: The Pac 12 is as wide open as any Big Five conference, with a lot of depth and unpredictable finishes. UCLA needs a win to stay in the race for the division crown, while Arizona can stay on pace for a regular season showdown with Arizona State to get to the conference championship game. I'd like to lean toward UCLA at home, but they just haven't been consistent enough on defense for me to back the Bruins.
Kansas (2 - 5) 13 @ (13) Baylor (6 - 1) 41: This one could get a little ugly. The Bears have to be a bit motivated by dropping to 13th in the playoff committee's ranking.
(17) Utah (6 - 1) 20 @ (14) Arizona State (6 - 1) 37: This is when we'll find out just how good Utah is. I think they'll get rolled in Tempe. But that's just me.
Purdue (3 - 5) 17 @ (15) Nebraska (7 - 1) 35: The Cornhuskers only have one loss, a close one at Michigan State. They just keep chugging along, staying in contention for the Big Ten title and maybe more.
Illinois (4 - 4) 24 @ (16) Ohio State (6 - 1) 34: Right now, the Buckeyes are being held down by their loss to a Virginia Tech team that can't seem to find any momentum while struggling to a 4 - 4 record. Illinois isn't in the same class with Ohio State, but they could catch the Buckeyes looking ahead to what is definitely a playoff elimination game at Michigan State. I think Ohio State will prevail, but it may be a bit tougher than they think.
(18) Oklahoma (5 - 2) 34 @ Iowa State (2 - 5) 23: The Sooners are out of the playoff picture, but that doesn't mean they're not a pretty good team .Iowas State has been able to fashion an occasional upset at home, but not this time.
(23) East Carolina (6 - 1) 30 @ Temple 21: The Pirates should feel good that Marshall is nowhere to be found in the playoff rankings, which is the way it should be. But they better focus on Temple, which is a dangerous team that's coming off two road losses. ECU is the better team, but that doesn't always translate into a win.
(24) Duke (6 - 1) 28 @ Pittsburgh (4 - 4) 17: Other than a loss to Miami, Duke has played solidly on both sides of the ball and has won because of a quick defense and efficient offense. Now they head to Pittsburgh, losers of four of their last five games, but still dangerous at home.
Boston College (5 - 3) 20 @ Virginia Tech (4 - 4) 24: The Hokies appeared to quit on coach Frank Beamer last week after repeatedly turning the ball over in a 30 - 6 loss to Miami. I think we'll see a different Hokie club today against the Eagles. We better, or the whispers about nudging Beamer toward retirement will get a little louder.
Virginia (4 - 4) 20 @ Georgia Tech (6 - 2) 27: The Yellow Jackets have been a bit inconsistent and Virginia is coming off consecutive close losses. I don't think the Cavs will be able to stop Georgia Tech's running game enough times to pull out the win.
Texas (3 - 5) 37 @ Texas Tech (3 - 5) 34: The only thing that's sure about this game is that a lot of points will be scored. even by Texas, which is ranked 110th in scoring offense. Of course, Texas Tech is dead last in the FBS in points allowed per game, due mostly to last week's embarrassing 82 points given up to TCU. This is tough pick, but I'm going to guess the Longhorns will make some key stops to get the win.
California (4 - 4) 34 @ Oregon St. (4 - 3) 40: Cal has lost their last three while the Beavers have dropped three of their last four. Not exactly a lot of momentum being brought into this game. When in doubt, I take the home team.
Maryland (5 - 3) 19 @ Penn St. (4 - 3) 24: The Nittany Lions can really play defense, and I think they'll stop their three game skid with a victory over Maryland today if they can carry the momentum from last week's unsuccessful comeback against Ohio State.
Overall: 147 - 60
Thursday night (from an earlier blog):
(2) Florida State (7 - 0) 27 @ (25) Louisville (6 - 2) 24: It's popular to think that this is the game that will disrupt the Seminoles' run to the playoffs. I disagree, but it will probably be close. Until Jameis Winston leaves Florida State or is benched for one of his many indiscretions, I think he is good enough to lead his team to an undefeated season. If so, they will most likely be the only one without a loss, given the tough schedule that Mississippi State faces the rest of the way. Look for Florida State to find a way to keep their streak alive on the road against a team that will be very dangerous in the ACC in seasons to come.
Arkansas (4 - 4) 24 @ (1) Mississippi State (7 - 0) 31: The Razorbacks have forced Auburn, Texas A&M and Alabama to give it their all, yet still lack an SEC victory. With their running game, Arkansas should be able to stay with anyone, as long as they stay with it. Against Georgia, the Hogs inexplicably abandoned the ground game on first down. I doubt that happens in Starkville, but I don't see Arkansas stopping the Bulldogs.
(3) Auburn (6 1) 20 @ (4) Ole Miss (7 - 1) 17: This is one BIG football game. Of course, there are a lot of BIG games this week, but this is definitely a playoff elimination contest. Auburn has been in a lot of important game the last couple of years and has only failed to win a couple of them. Ole Miss hasn't been in many and has really only prevailed in a single game of this caliber, coming from behind to upend Alabama.
Stanford (5 - 3) 23 @ (5) Oregon (7 - 1) 28: The Ducks are one of my picks to be in the final four. Their loss to Arizona at home was a bit of fluke. Stanford doesn't have the same team as the past few years, so I don't see them being able to outscore Oregon.
(7) TCU (6 - 1) 37 @ (20) West Virginia (6 - 2) 40: TCU put up 82 points, yes, that number is correct, last week. Now they head to a top ten team's nightmare of a venue in Morgantown. West Virginia is on a roll and are playing a lot better than when they lost to Oklahoma earlier in the season. I'm still not convinced TCU can outscore everyone they play. I'll stick with the Mountaineers is a big upset.
Oklahoma State (5 - 3) 16 @ (9) Kansas State (6 - 1) 28: Kansas State's lone loss to this point was a close one to Auburn. If Auburn and the Wildcats continue to win, it could set up a semifinal matchup in the playoffs. I don't count either one out at this point. But if K-State is going to run the table, their defense is going to have to step up big against Baylor, TCU and West Virginia, all on the road. They should be able to get by the Cowboys this week to set up the murderous finish to their schedule.
(10) Notre Dame (6 - 1) 30 vs. Navy (4 - 4) 21 in Landover, Md.: The Irish lost a heartbreaker to Florida State and then got shuffled down to tenth in the playoff committee rankings. This could go one of two ways in my opinion. Notre Dame could come out on fire and overwhelm the Middies, or they could come out flat and let Navy squeak out an upset victory. I think the Irish have too much for a pretty good Navy team that is a cut below their recent teams, so I'll go with the former.
Florida (3 -3) 20 vs. (11) Georgia (6 -1) 34 in Jacksonville, FL: This is one of the classic college football rivalries played in a neutral site every year. The Bulldogs seem to have caught fire since the Todd Gurley suspension, which will end after Saturday's game. Florida is probably preparing for a coaching change, as a bowl game would be a huge accomplishment, requiring at least one win against Georgia, South Carolina or Florida State, while assuming they take care of business against Vanderbilt.
(12) Arizona (6 - 1) 37 @ (22) UCLA (6 - 2) 34: The Pac 12 is as wide open as any Big Five conference, with a lot of depth and unpredictable finishes. UCLA needs a win to stay in the race for the division crown, while Arizona can stay on pace for a regular season showdown with Arizona State to get to the conference championship game. I'd like to lean toward UCLA at home, but they just haven't been consistent enough on defense for me to back the Bruins.
Kansas (2 - 5) 13 @ (13) Baylor (6 - 1) 41: This one could get a little ugly. The Bears have to be a bit motivated by dropping to 13th in the playoff committee's ranking.
(17) Utah (6 - 1) 20 @ (14) Arizona State (6 - 1) 37: This is when we'll find out just how good Utah is. I think they'll get rolled in Tempe. But that's just me.
Purdue (3 - 5) 17 @ (15) Nebraska (7 - 1) 35: The Cornhuskers only have one loss, a close one at Michigan State. They just keep chugging along, staying in contention for the Big Ten title and maybe more.
Illinois (4 - 4) 24 @ (16) Ohio State (6 - 1) 34: Right now, the Buckeyes are being held down by their loss to a Virginia Tech team that can't seem to find any momentum while struggling to a 4 - 4 record. Illinois isn't in the same class with Ohio State, but they could catch the Buckeyes looking ahead to what is definitely a playoff elimination game at Michigan State. I think Ohio State will prevail, but it may be a bit tougher than they think.
(18) Oklahoma (5 - 2) 34 @ Iowa State (2 - 5) 23: The Sooners are out of the playoff picture, but that doesn't mean they're not a pretty good team .Iowas State has been able to fashion an occasional upset at home, but not this time.
(23) East Carolina (6 - 1) 30 @ Temple 21: The Pirates should feel good that Marshall is nowhere to be found in the playoff rankings, which is the way it should be. But they better focus on Temple, which is a dangerous team that's coming off two road losses. ECU is the better team, but that doesn't always translate into a win.
(24) Duke (6 - 1) 28 @ Pittsburgh (4 - 4) 17: Other than a loss to Miami, Duke has played solidly on both sides of the ball and has won because of a quick defense and efficient offense. Now they head to Pittsburgh, losers of four of their last five games, but still dangerous at home.
Boston College (5 - 3) 20 @ Virginia Tech (4 - 4) 24: The Hokies appeared to quit on coach Frank Beamer last week after repeatedly turning the ball over in a 30 - 6 loss to Miami. I think we'll see a different Hokie club today against the Eagles. We better, or the whispers about nudging Beamer toward retirement will get a little louder.
Virginia (4 - 4) 20 @ Georgia Tech (6 - 2) 27: The Yellow Jackets have been a bit inconsistent and Virginia is coming off consecutive close losses. I don't think the Cavs will be able to stop Georgia Tech's running game enough times to pull out the win.
Texas (3 - 5) 37 @ Texas Tech (3 - 5) 34: The only thing that's sure about this game is that a lot of points will be scored. even by Texas, which is ranked 110th in scoring offense. Of course, Texas Tech is dead last in the FBS in points allowed per game, due mostly to last week's embarrassing 82 points given up to TCU. This is tough pick, but I'm going to guess the Longhorns will make some key stops to get the win.
California (4 - 4) 34 @ Oregon St. (4 - 3) 40: Cal has lost their last three while the Beavers have dropped three of their last four. Not exactly a lot of momentum being brought into this game. When in doubt, I take the home team.
Maryland (5 - 3) 19 @ Penn St. (4 - 3) 24: The Nittany Lions can really play defense, and I think they'll stop their three game skid with a victory over Maryland today if they can carry the momentum from last week's unsuccessful comeback against Ohio State.
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