I took a week off from prognostication in favor of spending time with my wife, usually a very good decision. It didn't keep me from watching a number of games, including big comebacks by Arkansas and Ohio State, Notre Dame's dominance of N.C. State, Virginia Tech's defensive gem against Duke, Oklahoma's spanking of Texas Tech and finally USC putting Arizona State back in its place. With the first release of the College Football Playoff rankings, things start to get very serious this weekend. Oklahoma's number five spot should give the Big 12 reason for optimism to get a team into the playoffs, something that will probably be unlikely unless the Sooners run the table. It's worth noting that in the first three years of the playoffs, only five of the twelve teams ranked in the top four of the initial list ended up in the playoffs. The lesson is that there are still a lot of meaningful games to be played, especially by teams that have the strength of their schedules back-ended. Alabama, Georgia, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Miami, among others, fall into that category. The ACC will begin to get sorted out this week, with Clemson traveling to N.C. State and undefeated Miami hosting Virginia Tech. Bedlam takes place in Stillwater, Oklahoma between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, with the winner continuing as a Big 12 contender and the loser facing an uphill battle to make the conference championship game.
Last Week (week eight): 18 - 4 81.8%
Overall: 177 - 41 81.2%
Friday:
(23) Memphis (7 - 1) 41 @ Tulsa (2 - 7) 34: How Tulsa pulled out a lopsided win against Houston is anyone's guess, but they'll need more of the same to end Memphis' four game winning streak. The Golden Hurricane can pin their hopes on the fact that the Tigers, despite their record and top 25 ranking, are giving up almost 34 points a game, just about the same as Tulsa is averaging on offense. This one should be high scoring and entertaining.
UCLA (4 - 4) 31 @ Utah (4 - 4) 28: On the road in Salt Lake City with a short week after getting whacked at Washington. It doesn't necessarily look good for UCLA as they, just like Utah, are struggling to get bowl eligible. That makes this game critical for both teams, especially since the Utes have lost their last four games. Even though road games on a short week are usually the kiss of death and UCLA hasn't won a road game this season, I just don't like the negative momentum for Utah.
Saturday:
11:00 am CDT:
(7) Penn State (7 - 1) 34 @ (24) Michigan State (6 - 2) 24:This will be a very difficult follow-up to last week's devastating loss for Penn State. Michigan State is also coming off a disappointing defeat at the hands of Northwestern. Unlike Penn State, Michigan State still controls their own destiny in the Big Ten East as they have Ohio State next week. For the Nittany Lions, they will need a lot of help to advance to the conference title game. One certainty is that they can't afford another loss.
(9) Wisconsin (8 - 0) 27 @ Indiana (3 - 5) 14: We'll have to see if Wisconsin gets a chip on their shoulder, because despite an unblemished record, the Badgers find themselves ranked ninth in the initial college football playoff ranking. It's apparent that the playoff committee is watching the games and looking closely at non-conference schedules.For Wisconsin to move up, they'll need to start steamrolling their remaining opponents.
(14) Auburn (6 - 2) 31 @ Texas A&M (5 - 3) 20: If Auburn hadn't let LSU off the hook, its likely they would be sitting somewhere in the top ten of the playoff rankings. Instead, the Tigers have no margin for error if they want to get to the SEC Championship game. They've been dominant at times, but with Georgia and Alabama looming, it will take some valiant efforts for Auburn to jump into the national mix.
UMass (2 - 6) 13 @ (16) Mississippi State (6 - 2) 45: Not much of a game in this one. Mississippi State gets a breather before hosting Alabama next week.
Kansas State (4 - 4) 21 @ Texas Tech (4 - 4) 34: If Kansas State is looking for a win the rest of the way, this might be their best shot. Texas Tech has lost four of their last five, but I still believe they're a better team than the Wildcats. Maybe I'm just biased by K-State's pathetic out of conference scheduling.
11:20 am CDT:
Syracuse (4 - 4) 27 @ Florida State (2 - 5) 24: It's been a miserable season for Florida State as they've been unable to get past the loss of their starting quarterback. Last week's pummeling by Boston College was especially distressing, as the Eagles put up 35 points on what was supposed to be a good defense. Of course, BC has been on a roll since a home loss to Virginia Tech so perhaps the 'Noles can find a way to bounce back at home. The main problem is Florida State hasn't been able to find a way to consistently score points.
2:00 CDT:
Georgia Tech (4 - 3) 38 @ Virginia (5 - 3) 17: Virginia began the season 5 -1, but have been scorched the last two weeks by Boston College and Pittsburgh. With questions on defense, possibly the worst team you want to face is Georgia Tech. I look for the Yellow Jackets to run all over the Cavaliers. This one could be ugly.
2:30 pm CDT:
South Carolina (6 - 2) 23 @ (1) Georgia (8 - 0) 28: Georgia emerged at the top of the playoff rankings, setting up this game as a bit of a trap for the Bulldogs in advance of their game at Auburn. South Carolina is one of a plethora of 6 - 2 teams that are positioned to wreak havoc in the closing weeks of the season. Are the Gamecocks capable of taking out Georgia? Absolutely. Georgia wants to run the ball, but South Carolina has a pretty capable rushing defense. The difference in this game will most likely be the Georgia defense. It's as good as South Carolina's, but the Gamecock offense isn't as good as Georgia's.
Wake Forest (5 - 3) 17 @ (3) Notre Dame (7 - 1) 30: Notre Dame is fifth in the nation in rushing offense and Wake Forest is way down the list in stopping the run. After what the Irish did to N.C. State's sixth rated rush defense last week, I would expect much of the same behind Josh Adams this week. Wake has exceeded expectations this season, but they're overmatched in this one.
(4) Clemson (7 - 1) 27 @ (20) N.C. State (6 - 2) 23: With Virginia Tech taking on Miami later in the day, many experts are calling this semifinal Saturday in the ACC. I tend to agree, especially since N.C. State can virtually clinch the Atlantic division with a win. I expect Clemson to be able to handle the Wolfpack in much the same way Notre Dame did a week ago, but State is still a dangerous defensive team.
(6) Ohio State (7 - 1) 31 @ Iowa (5 - 3) 17: After a furious comeback against Penn State that put Ohio State firmly in the national picture, the Buckeyes can't sleep on Iowa. After watching a lot of football teams this season, the speed of Ohio State might be the best of any team in the nation. I don't see the Hawkeyes keeping up.
(15) Iowa State (6 - 2) 34 @ West Virginia (5 - 3) 37: This is a very interesting match-up, with Iowa State suddenly controlling its own destiny in the Big 12 after four successive victories. They head into Morgantown to take on a West Virginia team that is fifth in the nation in passing and will put significant pressure on Iowa State's defense that's ranked sixty-fifth against the pass. West Virginia's problems this season have been an inability to make stops on defense, particularly against the run. Iowa State doesn't have a strong running game, which makes this contest so difficult to predict. For some reason, I'm taking the Mountaineers to outscore the Cyclones.
(21) Stanford (6 - 2) 27 @ (25) Washington State (7 - 2) 34: Statistically, Stanford's defense is not among the best in the nation, but they've been able to keep opposing teams off the scoreboard. Washington State leads the nation in passing yards per game and they play particularly well at home. Even though the Cardinal have won five straight, I like the Cougars to get off the mat after getting thrashed in two of their last three games.
Northwestern (5 - 3) 27@ Nebraska (4 - 4) 30: Despite having a better record, this game is somewhat of a match-up problem for Northwestern. The Wildcat's pass defense is ranked 120th, while Nebraska's passing attack is 30th. Northwestern has continued to surprise, but their three wins in a row have come against teams with passing attacks ranked no better than 67th in the country. Nebraska showed some grit in grinding out a tough win at Purdue last week and I like them to carry that momentum forward.
3:00 pm CDT:
(5) Oklahoma (7 - 1) 35 @ (11) Oklahoma State (7 - 1) 37: Bedlam: A scene of uproar and confusion. Perhaps in some prior years, that word hasn't necessarily applied to this game, but it surely does this season. The winner remains in contention for both the Big 12 title and a spot in the college football playoff. The loser likely falls by the wayside and into a large group of two loss teams destined to be on the outside looking in. The similarities are striking, with both teams sporting star quarterbacks, identical records and multiple game winning streaks. Oklahoma has won twelve of the last fourteen meetings, so the history is not on Oklahoma State's side. Fortunately though, quarterback Mason Rudolph is and I believe he can be the difference in this game.
Ole Miss (3 - 5) 37 @ Kentucky (6 - 2) 30:The disparity in records probably belies how closely matched these two teams are. Ole Miss has played a much tougher schedule than Kentucky and is coming off a game against Arkansas which they should have put away in the first half. The Wildcats have a porous pass defense and Ole Miss is ranked eighth in the country through the air, something that Kentucky hasn't faced this season. Unless Ole Miss is still nursing a comeback hangover from last week, I think they'll score on big plays and hold on against an offense that doesn't score a lot of points.
6:15 pm CDT:
Texas (4 - 4) 24 @ (8) TCU (7 - 1) 21: Three of Texas' four losses are by a combined eleven points to three of top seventeen teams in the current CFP rankings. They are also the last team to hang an "L" on Iowa State, something TCU was unable to do last week. I believe the Longhorns are close to turning the corner, and despite TCU's tough defense, I think they will pull the upset of the week. TCU's offensive difficulties will eventually hurt them and Texas is athletic enough to make them pay.
(18) UCF (7 - 0) 42 @ SMU (6 - 2) 27: SMU has a pretty good record, but they are extremely vulnerable through the air and UCF isn't the highest scoring team in the FBS by accident. They'll put up a ton of points on the Mustangs to remain in the hunt for a New Year's Day bowl game.
6:30 pm CDT:
Minnesota (4 - 4) 13 @ Michigan (6 - 2) 23: Michigan didn't hear their name called during the initial playoff rankings show Tuesday night and I'd imagine that didn't sit well with head coach Jim Harbaugh. He's a master motivator and I'm certain he'll use that to his advantage this week. Both of these teams rely on their defense, but Michigan's is better and will find a way to shut down an anemic Minnesota attack.
7:00 pm CDT:
(19) LSU (6 - 2) 20 @ (2) Alabama (8 - 0) 31: It's taken until week ten for Alabama to get to the meat of its schedule, facing current top twenty teams LSU, Mississippi State and Auburn to finish up the season. I still maintain that there is a loss in there somewhere but I don't think LSU has enough offensive firepower or consistency to do it this week. But the line on this game is Alabama -21.5, which I can't help but think is a bit high. We'll have to see how the Tide can step up their game as the caliber of competition increases.
(13) Virginia Tech (7 - 1) 27 @ (10) Miami (8 - 0) 17: Miami has won a number of close games this season, primarily because their run defense is only ranked 83rd in the nation. Their last four wins are against unranked opponents by a combined 18 points. It took a late play to get past a North Carolina team that Va. Tech had beaten 59 - 7 a week earlier. Their last really good performance was over a month ago at Duke. They'll need another one similar to it if they want to remain unbeaten and in the ACC Coastal race. The Hokies sport a top ten defense, ranked in the top fifteen against both the run and pass. If Tech gets pressure on quarterback Malik Rosier, it could be a long day for the Hurricanes.
8:00 CDT:
Colorado (5 - 4) 30 @ Arizona State (4 - 4) 37: Colorado runs a very balanced offense, at least by today's college football standards. This game will come down to Arizona State's ability to throw the ball on a Buffalo defense that is prone to big plays through the air while playing decent enough defense to keep Colorado from putting up big numbers of their own.
9:00 pm CDT:
Oregon (5 - 4) 17 @ (12) Washington (7 - 1) 31: If the Pac-12 is going to get a team into the college football playoffs, it will have to be Washington. Their defense has a good chance of getting them there as long as they don't look past the Ducks. Games with Stanford, Utah and Washington State loom to close out the regular season. The Huskies can't afford a hiccup at home. Oregon will try to run on the second stingiest run defense in the country, so it's likely to be tough going for the one-dimensional Ducks.
9:45 pm CDT:
(22) Arizona (6 - 2) 28 @ (17) USC (7 - 2) 38: Although the national sports media seems to be a little down on USC, it appears to be skewed by their performance against Notre Dame. There's a good chance the Irish will make more teams look bad on their way to a potential appearance in the playoffs. The Trojans righted the ship against Arizona State last week and I expect more of the same against the other Arizona school. This game features a real contrast in styles, with Arizona averaging over 330 yards on the ground, while USC quarterback Sam Darnold wants to throw the ball all over the field. Unfortunately for Arizona, they sport the 128th ranked pass defense out of 130 teams in the FBS.
Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg,
where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and
philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/
Also
listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike
Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes
and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their
glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert
Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show
Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.
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