Last week was this prognosticator's Waterloo. After maintaining a record over 80% for the entire season, the upsets finally caught up with me. This week we have three match-ups between top ten teams, clearly a watershed week for teams looking to punch their playoff tickets at some point. There's one thing for certain in college football, that upsets will occur. The secret is picking the right ones at the right time. I've picked a bunch this week, so read on and see who I think will go down and create playoff chaos!
Last Week 16 - 12 57%
Overall 193 - 53 79%
Friday:
(9) Washington (8 - 1) 27 @ Stanford (6 - 3) 14: Washington is hoping for some more chaos to occur in the next three weeks so they have a chance to get into the playoffs if they can find a way to win out. That won't be easy with Utah and Washington State coming up, but the Huskies' defense is the best thing west of Tuscaloosa. Between this game and one to end the season against Notre Dame, Stanford could also have a big impact on inflicting some chaos of their own. If they're going to stay in the Pac-12 North race, their offense will need to find more consistent explosiveness.
Saturday:
11:00 am CST
(12) Michigan State (7 - 2) 30 @ (13) Ohio State (7 - 2) 27: All of a sudden, the Big Ten East race is a real dogfight, with both of these teams the only ones left that control their own destiny. A win by Michigan State would really put them in the driver's seat with remaining games with Maryland and on the road at Rutgers. Ohio State still has Illinois and then they travel to the Big House to take on a still relevant Michigan team. Last week's blowout loss to Iowa was either a telling game or a wake-up call anomaly for the Buckeyes. The last two games along with their earlier loss to Oklahoma have been a sign to me that against tougher opposition, Ohio State struggles.
Rutgers (4 - 5) 13 @ (14) Penn State (7 - 2) 38: Two weeks ago Penn State was riding high with a big lead against Ohio State and the prospect of playing their way into the playoffs. Now they find themselves virtually out of the Big Ten East title hunt, just trying to win out against lesser competition. They need two losses by both Michigan State and Ohio State the rest of the way, a highly unlikely scenario.
(15) Oklahoma State (7 - 2) 31 @ (21) Iowa State (6 - 3) 27: After giving up sixty-two points to Oklahoma, the Cowboy defense will need to make some adjustments before heading to Ames, a difficult place to play. Iowa State was on a nice run but couldn't get their offense going at West Virginia. The Cyclones have one of the two legitimate defenses in the Big 12 along with TCU. I still like Oklahoma State to bounce back to stay alive, just barely, for a spot in the conference championship game.
Connecticut (3 - 6) 17 @ (18) UCF (8 - 0) 47: UCF needs to make a statement to get the playoff committee's attention, but beating UConn won't be it.
(23) NC State (6 - 3) 24 @ Boston College (5 - 4) 27: This is game sporting two teams headed in different directions. Boston College has an impressive three game winning streak following a tough home loss to Virginia Tech. Their opponent has lost consecutive games to teams that are currently in the top four in the playoff rankings. The long trip to Boston and the early start are advantages for the Eagles as N.C. State looks to recapture its defensive energy. I think these teams will emerge from the game with identical records.
Arkansas (4 - 5) 23 @ (24) LSU (6 - 3) 31: Arkansas has somehow pulled off consecutive last minute, one-point wins to stay alive for bowl contention. The Hogs have a history of shocking LSU, but Arkansas just hasn't shown the ability to consistently stop anyone from scoring. LSU isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut, but they play solid defense and Arkansas quarterback Cole Kelley is still getting his feet under him. I'll be pulling hard for the Razorbacks, but even my heart won't allow me to pick them in this one.
Duke (4 - 5) 27 @ Army (7 - 2) 31: Army completes a pass about as often as Alabama coach Nick Saban praises the media. Duke ranks a respectable 41st in rushing yards, but they'll be tested by a unit that leads the nation with an average of 365 yards a game. This isn't one of Duke's best teams and they'll have a long day against the Army rushing attack.
11:20 am CST:
(17) Virginia Tech (7 - 2) 31 @ Georgia Tech (4 - 4) 20: Virginia Tech is coming off a disappointing loss to a team they had a good chance of defeating. Offensively, the Hokies never got it going against a good Miami defense. Virginia Tech defensive coordinator Bud Foster has a history of success against Georgia Tech's option running game because of speed at linebacker and skilled defensive backs. The Hokies should be able to win, but they'll need more big offensive plays than they were able to make against the Hurricanes.
2:00 PM CST:
Wake Forest (5 - 4) 24 @ Syracuse (4 - 5) 27: Three of the last four Syracuse games have ended in a 27 - 24 score, so why change now? The Orange will be happy to be getting out of Florida with consecutive losses at Miami and Florida State. This is a tough one to call, but I'm going with the home team as Wake Forest's defensive performance has diminished as the season has progressed.
2:30 pm CST:
(1) Georgia (9 - 0) 23 @ (10) Auburn (7 - 2) 24: I've maintained for a month or so that Auburn was going to take down one of the top two teams and finally that time has arrived. Auburn's fourteen points from being undefeated and I'm sure that second half at LSU is still haunting the team. Georgia has rolled through a schedule that frankly, with the exception of the Notre Dame squeaker, is pretty underwhelming. I'm sticking with Auburn, primarily because Georgia hasn't had to line up against a team this talented since early September.
Florida State (3 - 5) 17 @ (4) Clemson (8 - 1) 28: Before the season started and Florida State was ranked third, this was penciled in as the game of the year in the ACC. The Seminoles lost their starting quarterback, and well, now it's not. Florida State is trying to get bowl eligible while Clemson is still in contention for the playoffs. I just haven't seen enough from Florida State that leads me to pick the big upset. The Tigers are just better right now.
(20) Iowa (6 - 3) 27 @ (8) Wisconsin (9 - 0) 24 : After Iowa steamrolled Ohio State last week, it would be easy to jump on the Hawkeye bandwagon. The playoff committee hasn't been impressed with the Badgers, as Wisconsin only has two wins against teams with winning records and only one of those is a power five school. This will be by far the sternest test of the season for Wisconsin and sometimes having to step up in class can be tough. We need to look no farther than fellow Big Ten team Ohio State. I like Iowa in an upset that could really put the Big Ten on playoff life support.
Virginia (6 - 3) 34 @ Louisville (5 - 4) 31: Louisville is a big favorite in this game and I can't figure out why. They haven't been impressive at all this season, with just a single win over an FBS team with a winning record. I like Virginia in what Vegas calls an upset, but I don't think of it that way. Virginia has come a long way in a year and Louisville is likely to find out how far.
West Virginia (6 - 3) 27 @ Kansas State (5 - 4) 20: Even though Kansas State got by Texas Tech in overtime last week, I'm still not a buyer of the Wildcats. They end the season with Oklahoma State and Iowa State, so they have an uphill battle to get bowl eligible, which I don't think they'll be able to do. West Virginia is just a better team.
Michigan (7 - 2) 27 @ Maryland (4 - 5) 14: Michigan and Penn State both have tough paths to the Big Ten East crown, but if the Wolverines keep winning, you never know what their final game against Ohio State could mean. Maryland is dangerous but Michigan is taking care of business down the stretch.
3:00 pm CST:
(11) USC (8 - 2) 34 @ Colorado (5 - 5) 20: USC can clinch a berth in the Pac-12 championship game with a win over the Buffaloes. Colorado has won the games they should have and lost the ones to better competition. That shouldn't change much in this one as USC quarterback Sam Darnold and the Trojan offense are hitting on all cylinders.
Kentucky (6 - 3) 37 @ Vanderbilt (4 - 5) 24: Kentucky isn't great, but they're better than Vanderbilt, who snapped a five game skid last week against Western Kentucky. Eventually, the Wildcats are going to lose head coach Mark Stoops to a bigger job, but he's done a good job at a basketball school and deserves a lot of credit.
4:30 pm CST:
(19) Washington State (8 - 2) 37 @ Utah (5 - 4) 21: Washington State has a couple of ugly losses and a bunch of impressive wins. They still control their own destiny in the Pac-12 North and will have an off week before facing Washington in what could be a winner take all game in Seattle. But first they need to beat a good Utah team that broke a four game losing skid in a win over Josh Rosen-less UCLA last week. If the Cougars can get their offense going, it could be a long night for the Utes.
6:00 pm CST:
(2) Alabama (9 - 0) 28 @ (16) Mississippi State (7 - 2) 30: My feeling has been from the beginning of the season that someone was going to beat Alabama. There are only three chances left (I can't consider Mercer as a possibility next week) and it will take a monumental effort from Mississippi State. The only blemishes on the Bulldogs' record are blowouts to Georgia and Auburn in consecutive games. On paper, this one is similar, but Mississippi State has run off four wins in a row behind very good defensive efforts. Can I bring myself to pick the home team? You bet I can!
Purdue (4 - 5) 17 @ (25) Northwestern (6 - 3) 30: Northwestern appears to be for real, on a four game winning streak and sporting wins over Iowa and Michigan State. Purdue is improved, but the Wildcats are at home and on a roll. Their all but eliminated from the Big Ten West race but winning out is possible and could get them into a very nice bowl game.
7:00 pm CST:
(3) Notre Dame (8 - 1) 27 @ (7) Miami (8 - 0) 20: It seems like every week we have at least one playoff elimination game and this definitely qualifies, as does the next one. Of the four teams in these two games, Miami probably has the best chance of surviving a loss because they're undefeated and will likely get a chance to defeat Clemson in the ACC Championship. I was surprised at how well the Hurricanes last week, but Notre Dame may be playing as well as any team in the nation. I'm looking for Notre Dame to dominate on the ground and wear down Miami.
(6) TCU (8 - 1) 21 @ (5) Oklahoma (8 - 1) 30: These two teams have a good chance to meet again in the Big 12 Championship since both hold the tiebreaker over Oklahoma State. West Virginia and Iowa State are also still in the hunt, but have tough finishing schedules. Even though TCU has a strong defense, I just don't think they can keep up with Oklahoma on the scoreboard, especially the way Baker Mayfield is playing at quarterback for the Sooners.
8:30 pm CST:
Arizona State (5 - 4) 37 @ UCLA (4 - 5) 41: Arizona State has won three of their last four, but UCLA will have Josh Rosen back after suffering a concussion. The Bruin defense is awful, giving up almost forty points a game. This is a compelling pick and I'm going with UCLA on nothing more than a hunch. If it's a shootout, the Bruins have more offensive weapons than Arizona State.
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