COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK ONE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND

It's finally time for the true opening weekend of college football. There are three games matching ranked teams, with the biggest pitting number one ranked Alabama against third rated Florida State in what could be a college football playoff preview.

Last Week: 5 - 0 100%

Kent State 6 @ (5) Clemson 41: I’m generally a big fan of the teams in the upper echelon of the MAC, but Kent State isn’t in that class. We probably won’t get a very good read on how well Clemson will be as they look to defend their national championship, but at least we’ll see how well Kelly Bryant, their new quarterback, leads the offense.

Akron 13 @ (6) Penn State 31: See above. Actually, Akron could be somewhat improved after last season’s five win campaign, but they’re still predicted to finish near the bottom of the MAC East. Head coach Terry Bowden has former Florida State defensive coordinator Chuck Amato in the same role for the Zips, but it’s a lot to ask for them to upset national title contender Penn State in State College.

Maryland 21 @ (23) Texas 30: Expectations are high for Texas and new head coach Tom Herman. Former Longhorn coach Charlie Strong left the team with a lot of talent and despite only winning five games in 2016, they were competitive in all but two of their losses. On the other side, Maryland squandered a decent start and lost seven of their final nine games, including the Quick Lane Bowl to Boston College. I’m expecting Texas to come out of the gates with enthusiasm and discipline, so I like their chances against the Terps.

California 20 @ North Carolina 34: Cal gave up more than 40 points in nine games last year and finished the season with the second-worst scoring defense in the FBS. For the UNC offense, with only four returning starters, that should sound like good news as they break in an entirely set of skill players, including quarterback. With the early start in Chapel Hill, it might take the Bears a little while to get moving. By then, unless they show tremendous improvement on defense, it might be too late.

Bethune-Cookman VERY LITTLE @ (18) Miami A LOT: Miami’s non-conference schedule is a joke (except for Notre Dame) and needs to be upgraded in the near future if they want to be taken seriously again at the national level.

NC State 30 @ South Carolina 24: This is an interesting match-up between two middle of the pack ACC and SEC schools. N.C State lost a lot of close games last year or their 2016 might have looked a lot different. South Carolina had the same 6 – 6 regular season record, but that was deceiving as they chalked up victories over East Carolina, Massachusetts and FCS Western Carolina. Not impressive, but they return ten offensive starters off a team that was ranked an anemic 116^th in FBS scoring offense. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? I guess we’ll see.

UTEP 10 @ (7) Oklahoma 48: UTEP’s only game against a power five team last season was a 41 – 7 loss at Texas. I don’t expect much different of an outcome in this one.

(11) Michigan 27 vs. (17) Florida 24 (Arlington, TX): My feeling is that both of these teams are a little bit overrated. Michigan is expected to take a step back from the team that lost three games by five points. Florida went 9 – 4 last year, but they had three ugly losses and they face a much tougher schedule this time around. This will be a very good inter-conference game, but I like Michigan’s consistency on defense a little better.

Temple 24 @ Notre Dame 27: After an ugly four win season, the pressure is on Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly to turn things around and do it in a hurry. Temple may be one of the easiest games on the Irish schedule, but they are still two-time defending AAC East champions. An early loss could put Kelly on a very hot seat with a difficult schedule ahead of him.

Stony Brook 13 @ (19) South Florida 51: Another FCS team venturing into FBS territory. South Florida shrugged off a shaky start to score 42 straight at San Jose State in front of about 17 people. Stony Brook shouldn’t offer nearly as much opposition.

Western Michigan 24 @ (4) USC 30: Western Michigan went undefeated until losing in the Cotton Bowl to Wisconsin last season. Head coach PJ Fleck headed to Minnesota, but the team will still be very good. USC is picked by many to win the Pac-12 behind quarterback Sam Darnold. With nothing to lose, look for Western Michigan to give a spirited effort. The Trojans better be ready for a MAC Attack.

Appalachian State 27 @ (15) Georgia 28: Another host team that needs to be on upset alert is Georgia. Last season Appalachian State took Tennessee to overtime before succumbing to the Vols. The Mountaineers are no strangers to Power Five teams and are a dangerous group. Kirby Smart’s second Bulldog team is going to need to improve on offense or every game will be a potential struggle, including this one. If there was ever a trap game, this is one, as Georgia travels to Notre Dame next week.

Central Arkansas 14  @ (20) Kansas State 35: Kansas State plays one of the weakest non-conference schedule of any Power Five program. For a team that has been successful for as long as the Wildcats, it should be embarrassing that the signature game outside of the Big 12 is against Vanderbilt. Come on, guys. Really?

Ga. Southern 16 @ (12) Auburn 38: Georgia Southern can be hard to defend, as it runs a style of offense similar to Georgia Tech’s. Their new offensive coordinator is a former Yellow Jacket assistant, so expect to see more similarities. Auburn will need to defend well, which they did very well last year, to avoid a costly upset, especially if they get caught looking ahead to Clemson next week. 

(16) Louisville 41 @ Purdue 24 (Indianapolis, IN): Louisville has plenty of reasons to be motivated. They have the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, knocked off Florida State, lost in the closing minutes to Clemson and are getting very little respect to start the season. The primary reason is that the Cardinals dropped their last three games, two of them to teams they really should have defeated. Purdue’’s new coach is former Louisville quarterback and assistant coach Jeff Brohm, so there is some added incentive for him to push his former team yet with his spread offense. He just doesn’t have the talent yet to pull it off.

(3) Florida State 30 vs. (1) Alabama 28 (Arlington, TX): I know that Nick Saban’s record when he has time to prepare for an opponent is incredible, but this is totally a hunch pick. Florida State has a quarterback starting his second season, a ton of great recruits and a pretty good coach of their own. Seminole coach Jimbo Fisher coached under Saban at LSU and is one of the names mentioned to possibly succeed Saban if and when he decides to leave Alabama. There is familiarity and at times it can be the difference in a close game.

BYU 17 vs. (13) LSU 27 (New Orleans, LA): BYU’s offense wasn’t very productive last week while LSU should have a very good defense. This game was moved to New Orleans from Houston, which just puts it a little closer to LSU and a little farther away from BYU. The Tigers have an advantage with the venue, but BYU already has some game experience, so this one might be close for a half or three quarters. Then I expect LSU to take control.

Montana State 13 @ (24) Washington State 37: Last season, Washington State was surprised by FCS Eastern Washington in their opener, but EWU is one of the top teams in their classification. I don’t expect the same threat from Montana State. The Cougars were rolling last year, but dropped their last three games. They’ll be trying to recapture some momentum before seeking revenge against Boise State next week.

Sunday, September 3

(22) West Virginia 20 vs. Va. Tech 31 (Landover, MD) This is a big game for two teams trying to gain national relevance. West Virginia, if could figure out a way to beat at least one team from the state of Oklahoma might have a chance of contending for a Big 12 crown, especially since the top two teams will play in a conference championship game. Virginia Tech came within a touchdown of Clemson in the ACC Championship game last season, get another shot at the Tigers on September 30, but this time in the friendly confines of Lane Stadium. The first freshman to start at quarterback since Michael Vick in 1999, Josh Jackson, is an unknown that is keeping experts from predicting a higher finish in the ACC Coastal. I like the Va. Tech defense to take care of business and set up Jackson for success.

Texas A&M 30 @ UCLA 34: Coached Jim Mora fir UCLA and Kevin Sumlin at Texas A&M are both firmly on the hot seat. Depending on how this game transpires, only one of them will have a cooler spot to sit by Sunday morning. The Bruins get All-American and Heisman candidate Josh Rosen back from injury at quarterback, which should help Mora’s chances. After promising starts the last several seasons, including a couple with Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M has failed to finish well. I like UCLA to take this one at home.

Monday, September 4

(25) Tennessee 27 vs Ga. Tech 31 (Atlanta, GA): Georgia Tech had a down year in 2016, but they were still able to upset Virginia Tech, eventual ACC Coastal winners. The running attack for the Yellow Jackets is difficult to defend, especially when a team doesn’t face it very often. Tennessee began last season well, but fell off in midseason and then inexplicably lost to Vanderbilt in the regular season finale. A bowl win over Nebraska salvaged the year, but head coach Butch Jones’ seat is indeed warm. Although this is technically a neutral site game, it’s taking place just a couple of exits down the connector from the Georgia Tech campus. I’ll take the Yellow Jackets.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.