COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK ONE PREDICTIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

After a handful of week 0 games, the college football season kicks off in earnest this week with games on Thursday and Friday nights. There are some compelling match-ups that could produce an upset or two, but the critical games will take place starting Saturday.

Last Week: 5 - 0  100%

Thursday, August 31

Tulsa 38 @ (10) Oklahoma State 47: Both of these teams from the state of Oklahoma finished last season with identical 10 – 3 marks, including lopsided bowl victories. Of course, Oklahoma State maintains that they really won eleven games because their loss to Central Michigan was mismanaged by the officials. Ironically, Central Michigan was Tulsa’s bowl opponent and the officials had nothing to do with the way the Golden Hurricane dismantled them 55 – 10.  Many experts are picking the Cowboys to win the Big 12 and they’ll be tested by a motivated Tulsa team that failed to score at least forty points only three times last season. I’ll take Oklahoma State, but this one could be a barn-burner.

(2) Ohio State 27 @ Indiana 17: Indiana returns nine starters off a defense that competed pretty well at time last year. This is an early conference road game for the Buckeyes and they’ll need to be ready to play if they want to avoid an upset. The Ohio State offense was inconsistent a year ago and laid an egg in the national semifinal against Clemson. The Indiana coaching staff will have plenty of film to watch of teams that throttled the Buckeyes. However, eight offensive and seven defensive starters return for coach Urban Meyer, so anything less than a return to the playoffs would be a disappointment.

Florida A&M 17 vs. Arkansas 31 (Little Rock, AR): In what could be Arkansas’ last game in Little Rock, the Hogs open an important season for coach Bret Bielema against an FCS opponent that already has a game under its belt. These games are dangerous, but the Hogs were given a chance to play on national television to start the season and jumped at it. With nothing to gain and a lot to lose, they better come out sharp or it could be embarrassing. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slow start from Arkansas, but they should win this handily.

New Mexico State 27 @ Arizona State 34:  Arizona State head coach Todd Graham is firmly on the hot seat after the Sun Devils lost their last six games in 2016, and in only one of them were they within three touchdowns. They were next to last in the FBS in total defense and dead last defending the pass. New Mexico State won only three games last season, but they should be better in 2017. This is a dangerous game for Arizona State, especially with the Aggies having nothing to lose. If Graham doesn’t improve the defense, it could be a tough start for the season for the Sum Devils.

Friday, September 1

(8) Washington 37 @ Rutgers 17: Washington travels cross country to open the season against a Rutgers team that lost its last nine games in 2016 and possessed the worst offense in the FBS. However, the Scarlet Knights have a number of grad transfers that should be able to add some life to an anemic attack. The Huskies will be trying to build on last season’s Pac-12 title and playoff appearance, but they have some holes to fill on defense as four starters went in the NFL draft. These two teams met in week one last season with Washington coming out on top by a score of 48 – 13. It might be a little closer this time around, but I don’t think Rutgers has closed the talent gap enough to make it close.

Colorado State 31 vs. Colorado 28 (Denver, CO): Unfortunately for Colorado, their in-state rivals already have a game under their belt against another Pac-12 foe, Oregon State. Head coach Mike Bobo’s Rams looked impressive in their new stadium as they put 58 points on the board against the Beavers. Colorado lost nine defensive starters and also have a new quarterback, so duplicating last season’s Pac-12 South crown will be difficult. This game was a one-sided affair last year, with Colorado winning 44 – 7. I look for a very different result this time around.

Utah State 10 @ (9) Wisconsin 34: Wisconsin was very close to an undefeated season in 2016 and won the Big Ten West. The scary thing is they bring back nine offensive and six defensive starters from a team that was fourth in scoring defense among FBS teams.  Utah’s defensive strength is against the pass, but the Badgers prefer to run the ball, so the Aggies will be at a big disadvantage. Looking ahead, Wisconsin has a favorable schedule and the talent to run the table, since they don’t have to play Ohio State and Penn State. They also host Michigan, so expect this team to be in the national mix come Thanksgiving.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK ZERO PREDICTIONS

Most fans are looking forward to the Labor Day Weekend as the college football season begins in earnest. But there are two ranked teams in action this week, as a limited slate kicks of the season. There are some serious travel miles getting logged, as Stanford and Rice go Down Under, Hawaii heads to the east coast and South Florida flies west. It’s not as exciting as what we’ll see next week, but it’s college football at last.

Saturday, August 26

Oregon State 27 @ Colorado State 31: Colorado State will open the season in a new on-campus stadium. This game was moved from Sept. 23 and gives the Rams a challenging opening game. They return thirteen starters from a team that lost to Idaho in the Potato Bowl. Their opponent, Oregon State, won only four games last season, but two of them were the final ones they played, including a big win over rival Oregon. The Beavers’ defense isn’t bad, but I don’t think it will be enough to overcome Colorado State. I guess I’m starting the season with a mild upset.

Portland State 14 @ BYU 37: Portland State is a second division FCS team that shouldn’t give the Cougars much trouble. BYU needs an easy one to start the season, because the front end of their schedule is brutal, with games against LSU, Utah and Wisconsin.

Hawaii 34 @ UMass 31: Talk about a long road trip for Hawaii. Fortunately for the Rainbows they’ll be playing at 5:00 pm EDT and their opponent is considered one of the worst teams in the FBS. These teams met in the final regular season game last year, with the Minutemen coming within a touchdown of pulling an upset and keeping Hawaii out of bowl contention. Although this could be a very close game, I’ll take Hawaii to outscore the home team.

(19) South Florida 30 @ San Jose State 14: South Florida, who went 11 – 2 including a bowl win over South Carolina, welcome Charlie Strong as their new head coach to replace Willie Taggert, now at Oregon. Expectations are high for South Florida as they head west to play a Spartans squad that returns thirteen starters off a 4 – 8 team. If the jet lag isn’t an issue, the Bulls should prevail.

(14) Stanford 27 vs. Rice 13 (Sydney, Australia): The Endowment Bowl features a Stanford team that will need to find a replacement for Christian McCaffery’s insane offensive production. Rice only won three games last year and isn’t expected to challenge the leaders in Conference USA. This will be a good opener for Stanford to find some contributors on offense before they travel to USC in week two to open Pac-12 play.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

LOOKING AHEAD TO COLLEGE FOOTBALL: BIG GAMES IN WEEK FOUR

The conference schedules, at least for the ones that play nine league games, kick off in earnest in week 4. The Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac 12 hit the ground running with some match-ups that will definitely effect the final standings and determine which teams advance to the championship games.

Penn State @ Iowa: Penn State is not only a favorite to win their division, but after the finish last year, they are a legitimate national championship caliber team. But their path is tough, and assuming they take care of Pittsburgh at home, this is a key game. Iowa is good defensively and will force the Nittany Lions to be patient. I don't think many Big Ten teams would like to travel to Iowa City in their conference opener, but if Penn State performs well, it will position them nicely going forward.

Oklahoma @ Baylor: It will be interesting to see how Baylor rebounds from a disappointing finish to their season and what a new coach will bring to the table. If the Sooners are going to contend for a national championship, they'll need to get out of Waco with a win, especially if they sustain a loss in their visit to Ohio State. I like Oklahoma to run the table until they face Oklahoma State, but the Big 12 is a mystery, especially with the wide open style of play throughout the conference.

TCU @ Oklahoma State: If TCU gets past Arkansas and Oklahoma State defeats Pittsburgh, both on the road, this game will take on some national significance. The Cowboys are already picked by many to win the Big 12, but to do so, they'll have to win in Fort Worth.. If one of these teams emerges from this game undefeated, they'll definitely be in playoff consideration, even at an early stage in the season.

Notre Dame @ Michigan State: Both of these teams are coming off sub-par seasons. Some would say that Irish coach Brian Kelly is on the hot seat. I disagree, but there is no doubting the importance of this game. The only thing for certain is that there will be a lot of green in the stands.

Oregon @ Arizona State: I'm fascinated by how Oregon is going to come back from a down season that saw their coach get fired. The Pac-12 juggernaut that found its way to a national championship game can't be that far away, can it? Can Willie Taggert, an east coast guy, bring back glory to Phil Knight's pride and joy? We'll have to wait and see, but an early season loss to the Sun Devils would cast a pall in Eugene.

Washington @ Colorado: What a way to start the Pac-12 slate but with a rematch of last season's conference championship game where Washington totally outclassed the Buffaloes in a 41 - 10 romp. The bad news for Colorado is that they return just two starters from a defensive unit that was the key to their division title a year ago. Washington is hoping to build on the momentum of a playoff run from last season.

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (Arlington, Texas): Arkansas has yet to defeat A&M since the Aggies became members of the SEC. This is a big game for a number of reasons, not the least of which is recruiting. The Razorbacks can benefit from an increased presence in the Lone Star state and this will be their second consecutive game against a team from the state of Texas. For both of these teams, given the rigorous schedule in the SEC West, a win in this game is almost a necessity for a successful season.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

THE PGA TOUR: LIFE AFTER TIGER WOODS

While Tiger Woods is free diving for lobster off the coast of wherever (Jimmy Buffett could use that as a song title), the young and not so young anymore guns are bombing drives and sinking putts in professional golf tournaments around the world. But like Palmer before him, Woods’ long lasting effect on purses and style of play will be felt on tour for a generation or more. When Woods joined The Tour in September of 1996 (and by the way, entered seven tournaments, won twice and qualified for the Tour Championship), purses on the PGA Tour totaled just over $69 million. Ten years later, after Woods’ incredible run, they topped $257 million, an increase of a whopping 272%. Not even college tuition increased that much during the same time frame. Okay, you say, sports salaries and purses have been increasing like that forever. Not really. In the decade since, golfers have seen a modest increase of 27% in the amount of money they play for bringing the increase during Tiger’s career to a whopping rise of 373%. The increase from 2006 to 2016 is just a little more than the entire amount they competed for when Tiger turned professional. 

Whether Tiger Woods returns to The Tour or not, the monetary effect of his impact should be recognized and appreciated immensely by the current crop of players. This isn’t to say they don’t, but if not, they certainly need to. So where does The Tour move from here? In the absence of a truly dominant player, how does new commissioner Jay Monahan advance the brand and the prize money? It’s truly a challenge, especially as favorites like Phil Mickelson reach the end of his career, but a few things are happening that will make his job a bit easier.  The first goes by the name of Jordan Spieth, and he is beginning to look very Tiger Woods-ish.  He recently won the Open Championship to collect his third major win just before his 24^th birthday.  With a victory this week, he would surpass Tiger as the youngest player to win the career grand slam. It would be quite an accomplishment at any age, considering that Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, Sam Snead, Tom Watson and Raymond Floyd, among others, failed to win all of the majors in their storied careers. The important thing for The Tour is that he’s young, likable, extremely talented and an American. I know in this global age that last attribute shouldn’t matter, but there’s not a huge difference between Spieth and Irishman Rory McIlroy in terms of success, but there certainly is in how they’re received in the United States. 

Even though fellow Americans Bubba Watson, Ricky Fowler, Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas haven’t had the same level of major tournament success as Spieth, they form a very strong contingent of American golfers who play at a consistent enough level to be in contention on a regular basis. The most dominant aspect of Tiger Woods was that not only did he win a lot, but for the first several years of his career he never missed a cut. Sponsors could rely on the fact that when he played, there was almost a 100% chance he would be around for weekend.  With a group of popular stars, and we can add the likes of Australian Jason Day, McIlroy when he’s interested in what he’s doing and Japanese sensation Hideki Matsuyama, someone that people want to see is likely to be at or near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon. That’s critical as network broadcast deals and tournament sponsorships are up for negotiation or renewal.  If the PGA Tour can’t keep the ratings and sponsorships flowing, those purses are likely to head in the opposite direction.

In an earlier blog, I wrote about the impact of moving the PGA Championship to May and potentially shortening the season so the FedEx Playoffs would end prior to the NFL season. Overall, I believe that’s a positive, but they’ll still need to contend with having to cut the tournaments that are currently played between the end of the playoffs and the beginning of the “silly season”. Those events had been bolstered, in part, by the decision to have FedEx points awarded and creating a wrap-around season that begins in one year and continues in the next. Not a bad idea, except it created a virtual year-round schedule that, especially for the top Americans, was very difficult to navigate since they play in the President’s Cup one year and the Ryder Cup the next. I don’t think TheTour will be able to put the ketchup back in the bottle, so they’ll need to come up with a way to keep the attraction of the fall tournaments without penalizing players who want a true offseason. Again, in an earlier post, I floated the idea of using those tournaments as qualifying for the four majors and The Players, with each one designated as a qualifier for a particular event and a cumulative system that would award the winner with entry into all five, or at least those that they weren’t already qualified for. 

Overall, I think the PGA Tour is in a solid position currently and heading into the future. The leadership and the players need to continue to adapt to a changing sports landscape and come up with creative ways to attract and retain fans. Whether it’s shorter events, a partner tournament with the LPGA or even different scoring methods, they’ll need to evolve in ways they haven’t needed to in the past. I’m definitely a traditionalist, so if I advocate that creativity is essential, then the need for continued change probably isn’t a radical idea.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at  Amazon.com and listen to me Friday's at 8:40 am EDT/ 7:40 am CDT on Lou in the Morning, streaming live on www.WPFLradio.com, 105.1 FM. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.